Greatest Trailblazer: Lillard or Drexler?

[Heej]

The horror in my mind when thinking about what Philly fans or Denver fans would say.

Dr J isn't a bad choice at all lmao dunno what you're on about

Was thinking more about ALLEN IVERSON

Oh I know you were. But Doc's at all the big Philly stuff and he claims Philly more. AI carried the Sixers for his era but the organization easily features Doc more so most fans are gonna opt for him. Especially because he's actually around and AI is doing God knows what.

[Moonbeam]

Drexler.

Lillard is an underwhelming playoff performer to say the least. From 2015-2019 Playoffs had a PIPM of -2.4 and has played poorly in 7 out of the 12 playoffs series he's played in. Had TS% above 52% in only 6 of his 12 playoffs series.

Lillard scoring is way too dependent on 3P shooting accuracy and substantial foul drawing. Metrics such as Defensive LEBRON always have him at the bottom of the league amongst qualifying Guards with the Trae Youngs and Collin Sextons of the world yearly.

Drexler's play is more stable than Lillard.

I'll restate a post I made on a GB thread about Lillard when it comes to efficiency in the playoffs. First, I'll note that it's fair enough to question this. But the degree to which he drops off in the postseason tends to be a bit overstated when looking at data.

OK, I've run some numbers for Lillard and all other guards named to an All-NBA team since 1984 (the earliest year I have playoff data).

The first metric I've looked at is Playoff Score+, which is a measure of how many additional points per 100 possessions a player scores compared to the opponent's average TS% allowed. In this way, it combines volume and efficiency. Lillard's Playoff Score+ is 1.141, which means his shooting contributed an extra 1.141 points per 100 possessions compared to what would be expected based on opponent TS% allowed. This ranks 26th among the 62 All-NBA guards in the data set. For reference, Lillard's regular season Score+ is 1.799 (which ranks 16th among the 62 players).

Here's a graph for all of the data. Being toward the top right is good in this case. While Lillard's Score+ does drop off in the postseason, it doesn't particularly stand out.



The second metric I've looked at is Playoff ORtg+ which is a measure of the difference between a player's Offensive Rating minus the average Defensive Rating of the opponent. Lillard's Playoff ORtg+ is 6.656, which means his Offensive Rating in the playoffs is 6.656 per 100 possessions higher than the average opponent Defensive Rating. This ranks 21st among the 62 guards in the data set. For reference, his regular season ORtg+ is 9.084, which ranks 12th.

Here's a graph for the ORtg+ data, where being in the top right corner again is ideal. Again, Lillard drops off a bit in the postseason, but it's not a dramatic dropoff in comparison to other guards.



While these aren't all-inclusive metrics that capture all of a player's offensive contributions, they tell us that Lillard's production indeed drops off a bit in the postseason, but not in any way that is particularly notable. Even with these dropoffs, his production in the postseason ranks among the top half of All-NBA guards by either metric, nearing the top third in playoff ORtg+.

I'll note that none of this takes into account a player's teammates. This is where context needs to be used. Lillard hasn't had many opportunities to draft off of high-caliber offensive players who are a significant focus for the defense, only really in his first two trips to the playoffs with Aldridge. Similar arguments might be made for players like Iverson.

Drexler's scoring efficiency is very close to regular season expectations, but despite the moderate dropoff for Dame, he's still a bit ahead. That said, Drexler has a little advantage in Playoff ORtg+ compared to Lillard (while Lillard clears Drexler pretty easily in the regular season).

[OhayoKD]

Given that Portland fans near unanimously say Lillard I'm just gonna go with that tbh.

The horror in my mind when thinking about what Philly fans or Denver fans would say.

I don't think denver fans love ai like that

[penbeast0]

I hate to say this but whenever I think of the face of the Portland Trailblazers, I think of Geoff Petrie. Not rational, but just the era I grew up in.

[Cavsfansince84]

I'd say both have good arguments as does Walton. Drexler got to play on better teams by and large so you can give it to him on that basis or on Dame if you think he's prime is better on average.