Amen & Ausar Thompson - Potential 2022 NBA Draft Guys

[Yallbecrazy]

the idea that this draft is awful is comical on every level

The 3rd best player is probably Gradey Dick or Brandon Miller. A 3+D guy and a Korver like player going 3rd overall? It's a really weak draft.

dude just stop. your takes are so bad haha.

check my posting history on guys in the past, nbadraft.net or whatever is bad. I go by numbers and it is way more predictable.

[buzzkilloton]

the idea that this draft is awful is comical on every level

The 3rd best player is probably Gradey Dick or Brandon Miller. A 3+D guy and a Korver like player going 3rd overall? It's a really weak draft.

Even though your getting crap for it I'll say I have the same 3 and 4 pre Miller gun incident anyways.. I actually think Dick has more upside then being a Korver I've watched a ton of him. Not that Korver wasnt awesome he would be a fine pick.

I dont think this draft is weak its good overall. I think its flat from 3-15 with some high upside lotto tickets and lots safe prospects though.

[BostonCouchGM]

no, you just have no idea what you're doing if you think Miller/Dick are the 3rd best players in the draft.

Those are the only two guys I can be reasonably certain will be NBA starters if healthy, everyone else has at least a 35% chance to be coming off the bench or out of the league in 6 years. Also, I don't see anyone with a >20% of being an all star.

I think drafting 3-14 this year is almost a level playing field, which is unfortunate for whatever team ends up getting pick 3/4/5 after the lottery.
A bunch of decent/ok prospects that I would feel good about drafting 8-14 but not 3-7, if that makes sense.

this isn't as strong as draft class as people initially claimed but it certainly has a different makeup. Where it once seemed like it was going to be a slew of one and dones deserving to be lottery picks, it now seems like many of those guys have been supplanted by returning players. In the end, the same amount of talent as before, just constituted differently. I think the twins have joined Scoot in that second tier after Wembanyama. Then from 5-14 it's extremely flat. I think teams will want to have a top 4 pick in this draft and if they don't they should trade back if possible.

[Hal14]

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[JMAC3]

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He could of had a lot more assists too, nobody was making shots for him. At least 4 or 5 of his assists were alleys to Ausar or other dunks to his teammates.

[HotelVitale]

The 3rd best player is probably Gradey Dick or Brandon Miller. A 3+D guy and a Korver like player going 3rd overall? It's a really weak draft.

dude just stop. your takes are so bad haha.

check my posting history on guys in the past, nbadraft.net or whatever is bad. I go by numbers and it is way more predictable.

I checked real fast, seems like you mostly just take asst:TO, oreb%, and steals/blocks and run with what that tells you. Not knocking that and your record seems as good or better than most of ours, but that leaves you generally only talking about like 4 or 5 players every year that either do or don't fit your profile, and hyping or slamming them based on those models. Definitely had some interesting (if over the top) takes before: Sengun as the #2 prospect of 2021, loved Walker Kessler in the later 1st, loved Koloko to the Raps, etc. Some other ones haven't been as good (e.g. Suggs) but in general yeah I'd feel good about my takes too.

Your model and commentary leaves most players untouched, though, and generally you don't say much if anything about all the players who aren't quite good or quite bad at those stats. Many of whom have been really good or bad, presumably not in ways that your model fully predicted. Like I said, not knocking you and your perspective seems like it's been productive in discussions before. But I don't think you've shown why your take on an entire draft should be beyond doubt.

[JMAC3]

I will say I watched the full game last night. The first half was ugly at times for them, but Amen especially balled out in the 2nd half. He had a few really good passes and he hit 2 big threes in the 4th quarter that swung the momentum.

[Yallbecrazy]

dude just stop. your takes are so bad haha.

check my posting history on guys in the past, nbadraft.net or whatever is bad. I go by numbers and it is way more predictable.

I checked real fast, seems like you mostly just take asst:TO, oreb%, and steals/blocks and run with what that tells you. Not knocking that and your record seems as good or better than most of ours, but that leaves you generally only talking about like 4 or 5 players every year that either do or don't fit your profile, and hyping or slamming them based on those models. Definitely had some interesting (if over the top) takes before: Sengun as the #2 prospect of 2021, loved Walker Kessler in the later 1st, loved Koloko to the Raps, etc. Some other ones haven't been as good (e.g. Suggs) but in general yeah I'd feel good about my takes too.

Your model and commentary leaves most players untouched, though, and generally you don't say much if anything about all the players who aren't quite good or quite bad at those stats. Many of whom have been really good or bad, presumably not in ways that your model fully predicted. Like I said, not knocking you and your perspective seems like it's been productive in discussions before. But I don't think you've shown why your take on an entire draft should be beyond doubt.

It's more complicated than that, I wiegh steals more for bigs and orb% more for guards, which seems counterintuitive, but seems to have more predictability. Ast/To is great for wings and bigs, but has a lot of noise/ unpredictability for point guards. FT rate and %, and contested rim finishing is really important too.

I don't like the Thompson twins because they are playing inferior competition, don't appear to be great shooters, and aren't putting up the best stats in the league they're in despite inferior and younger competition.
Someone posted above that of the top 10 high school recruits very few end up being top NBA draft picks, and being an above average NBA player is even rarer.
These guys have more red flags based on their stats than a random top high school recruit.

[JMAC3]

check my posting history on guys in the past, nbadraft.net or whatever is bad. I go by numbers and it is way more predictable.

I checked real fast, seems like you mostly just take asst:TO, oreb%, and steals/blocks and run with what that tells you. Not knocking that and your record seems as good or better than most of ours, but that leaves you generally only talking about like 4 or 5 players every year that either do or don't fit your profile, and hyping or slamming them based on those models. Definitely had some interesting (if over the top) takes before: Sengun as the #2 prospect of 2021, loved Walker Kessler in the later 1st, loved Koloko to the Raps, etc. Some other ones haven't been as good (e.g. Suggs) but in general yeah I'd feel good about my takes too.

Your model and commentary leaves most players untouched, though, and generally you don't say much if anything about all the players who aren't quite good or quite bad at those stats. Many of whom have been really good or bad, presumably not in ways that your model fully predicted. Like I said, not knocking you and your perspective seems like it's been productive in discussions before. But I don't think you've shown why your take on an entire draft should be beyond doubt.

It's more complicated than that, I wiegh steals more for bigs and orb% more for guards, which seems counterintuitive, but seems to have more predictability. Ast/To is great for wings and bigs, but has a lot of noise/ unpredictability for point guards. FT rate and %, and contested rim finishing is really important too.

I don't like the Thompson twins because they are playing inferior competition, don't appear to be great shooters, and aren't putting up the best stats in the league they're in despite inferior and younger competition.
Someone posted above that of the top 10 high school recruits very few end up being top NBA draft picks, and being an above average NBA player is even rarer.
These guys have more red flags based on their stats than a random top high school recruit.

They are 15-1 and Ausar just won the MVP. They are the best players in the league lol.

They are averaging 2.5 steals and a block per game. Both top 5 in dunks in the league.

They are playing like 27 mins per game, how many points do you expect them to average in that time frame? They are averaging 21 ppg per 36 which is on par or better than 90% of the other guys projected in the first round.

[Yallbecrazy]

I checked real fast, seems like you mostly just take asst:TO, oreb%, and steals/blocks and run with what that tells you. Not knocking that and your record seems as good or better than most of ours, but that leaves you generally only talking about like 4 or 5 players every year that either do or don't fit your profile, and hyping or slamming them based on those models. Definitely had some interesting (if over the top) takes before: Sengun as the #2 prospect of 2021, loved Walker Kessler in the later 1st, loved Koloko to the Raps, etc. Some other ones haven't been as good (e.g. Suggs) but in general yeah I'd feel good about my takes too.

Your model and commentary leaves most players untouched, though, and generally you don't say much if anything about all the players who aren't quite good or quite bad at those stats. Many of whom have been really good or bad, presumably not in ways that your model fully predicted. Like I said, not knocking you and your perspective seems like it's been productive in discussions before. But I don't think you've shown why your take on an entire draft should be beyond doubt.

It's more complicated than that, I wiegh steals more for bigs and orb% more for guards, which seems counterintuitive, but seems to have more predictability. Ast/To is great for wings and bigs, but has a lot of noise/ unpredictability for point guards. FT rate and %, and contested rim finishing is really important too.

I don't like the Thompson twins because they are playing inferior competition, don't appear to be great shooters, and aren't putting up the best stats in the league they're in despite inferior and younger competition.
Someone posted above that of the top 10 high school recruits very few end up being top NBA draft picks, and being an above average NBA player is even rarer.
These guys have more red flags based on their stats than a random top high school recruit.

They are 15-1 and Ausar just won the MVP. They are the best players in the league lol.

They are averaging 2.5 steals and a block per game. Both top 5 in dunks in the league.

They are playing like 27 mins per game, how many points do you expect them to average in that time frame? They are averaging 21 ppg per 36 which is on par or better than 90% of the other guys projected in the first round.

Cam Boozer played against one of the teams that beat the Thompson twins and put up way better numbers than they have. I understand he's a generational prospect, but he's 15 and they're almost 20. Other guys who are younger(than the twins) and aren't considered top recruits have put up monster stat lines too.

[HotelVitale]

check my posting history on guys in the past, nbadraft.net or whatever is bad. I go by numbers and it is way more predictable.

I checked real fast, seems like you mostly just take asst:TO, oreb%, and steals/blocks and run with what that tells you. Not knocking that and your record seems as good or better than most of ours, but that leaves you generally only talking about like 4 or 5 players every year that either do or don't fit your profile, and hyping or slamming them based on those models. Definitely had some interesting (if over the top) takes before: Sengun as the #2 prospect of 2021, loved Walker Kessler in the later 1st, loved Koloko to the Raps, etc. Some other ones haven't been as good (e.g. Suggs) but in general yeah I'd feel good about my takes too.

Your model and commentary leaves most players untouched, though, and generally you don't say much if anything about all the players who aren't quite good or quite bad at those stats. Many of whom have been really good or bad, presumably not in ways that your model fully predicted. Like I said, not knocking you and your perspective seems like it's been productive in discussions before. But I don't think you've shown why your take on an entire draft should be beyond doubt.

It's more complicated than that, I wiegh steals more for bigs and orb% more for guards, which seems counterintuitive, but seems to have more predictability. Ast/To is great for wings and bigs, but has a lot of noise/ unpredictability for point guards. FT rate and %, and contested rim finishing is really important too.

I don't like the Thompson twins because they are playing inferior competition, don't appear to be great shooters, and aren't putting up the best stats in the league they're in despite inferior and younger competition.
Someone posted above that of the top 10 high school recruits very few end up being top NBA draft picks, and being an above average NBA player is even rarer.
These guys have more red flags based on their stats than a random top high school recruit.

That’s a good example of what I mean, your model leaves you with nothing clear about the twins so you end up at the most basic initial point about them: it’s hard to get a read on them in the OT Elite, sucks they can’t shoot etc. We all know that, and the challenge there is how high to rate the kinda historic size/athleticism combo, plus some of the pretty advanced driving/slashing skill set, given the other challenges. It’s hard but that’s what draft game is all about. (Also guessing they would show up pretty well at orebs, stocks, FT rate, and rim %?)

Also sure most top 10 recruits don’t become NBA stars but I’m confused about the point there. The reason for that is the same reason all this is unpredictable—teenagers playing other random teenagers isn’t a good way to assess who will become the best NBA player at age 25-30. You should never put too much stock in where some guy was rated at age 16, but top 10 recruits still have a much better rate of success than say those ranked 40-50 or whatever. It doesn’t tell you if they’ll succeed but it’ll usually tell you if they have a couple traits that are NBA prospect caliber.

[JMAC3]

Cam Boozer played against one of the teams that beat the Thompson twins and put up way better numbers than they have. I understand he's a generational prospect, but he's 15 and they're almost 20. Other guys who are younger(than the twins) and aren't considered top recruits have put up monster stat lines too.

This is really cherry-picking data, but you are entitled to spin it however you would like.

But yes, Boozer had a good game back in October vs the Young Drmz in their first ever game of playing together. Then they went on later beat Thompson twins 3 months later.

[JMAC3]

Here is Amen Thompson final 3:21 Game was 82-81 at this moment.
Draws foul- goes 1/2 from line. Push lead to 83-81
Same possession- they get rebound off miss and he assists a 3 pointer for Trey Parker. 86-81
2:41 left. Very next possession after a stop, Ausar drives and hits Amen for top of key 3. Amen burries it 89-81

Cold Hearts make a run game is 91-90 with 1:19 left.
He turns the ball over, gets back 1 vs 1 and contests the FB layup, forces misses. Grabs board 1 vs 3 and gets fouled.
Game is 94-92. Amen beats man off dribble attacks rim in HC and draws a shooting foul vs the big. Makes both FT to push 96-92
Steals ball with 26 seconds, goes behind back and flys by defender and dunks the ball to push lead 98-92

So 8 points in the final 3:20 in a game that was 1 possession.

Watch on YouTube

[Hal14]

I've got Amen ranked 4th and Ausar 8th at the moment

[LofJ]

I get major Westbrook vibes watching these guys, both the good and the bad. He never adapted his game as he aged, but young Westbrook was a force to be reckoned with (despite his warts). They aren't quite as explosive as Westbrook was, but they're bigger and play balls to the wall just like he did. They have huge bust potential (especially Amen), but I wouldn't be that shocked if they end up becoming impactful players.

[SeattleJazzFan]

there really isn't much argument at all that amen is better than ausar. if you can get ausar 4-8 spots lower, the value is so much better. scoring, assists, FT%, +/-, steals and blocks are about as even as you can get. ausar has a significant edge in rebounding, three point attempts and 3pt percentage. amen has a significant edge in FG%. ausar seems to be the superior defender. size and athleticism the same.

if you're sitting at #4 and you want amen, you might as well trade back a few spots, get another pick or whatever and take ausar. you get the same (or better) player but you add value.

[JMAC3]

there really isn't much argument at all that amen is better than ausar. if you can get ausar 4-8 spots lower, the value is so much better. scoring, assists, FT%, +/-, steals and blocks are about as even as you can get. ausar has a significant edge in rebounding, three point attempts and 3pt percentage. amen has a significant edge in FG%. ausar seems to be the superior defender. size and athleticism the same.

if you're sitting at #4 and you want amen, you might as well trade back a few spots, get another pick or whatever and take ausar. you get the same (or better) player but you add value.

Ehhhhh. Watch them play. It is clear who the alpha is. Ausar defers to Amen.
- examples: last game Amen took over the last 3 mins of the game.
-older example: Ausar fouled out of state championship game and Amen scored 41 in double OT.


Amen is better finisher, better passer, better ball handler.

Ausar is the better shooter, but he also plays off the ball more. Which I think probably helps his shooting more in terms of getting better catch and shoot opportunities. Ausar is still a good finisher and passer, but he is a step below Amen IMO.

Rebounding, Defense are pretty much the same. Ausar averages more rebounds simply because Amen is guarding PG more often and playing on perimeter more frequently.

[SeattleJazzFan]

there really isn't much argument at all that amen is better than ausar. if you can get ausar 4-8 spots lower, the value is so much better. scoring, assists, FT%, +/-, steals and blocks are about as even as you can get. ausar has a significant edge in rebounding, three point attempts and 3pt percentage. amen has a significant edge in FG%. ausar seems to be the superior defender. size and athleticism the same.

if you're sitting at #4 and you want amen, you might as well trade back a few spots, get another pick or whatever and take ausar. you get the same (or better) player but you add value.

Ehhhhh. Watch them play. It is clear who the alpha is. Ausar defers to Amen.
- examples: last game Amen took over the last 3 mins of the game.
-older example: Ausar fouled out of state championship game and Amen scored 41 in double OT.


Amen is better finisher, better passer, better ball handler.

Ausar is the better shooter, but he also plays off the ball more. Which I think probably helps his shooting more in terms of getting better catch and shoot opportunities. Ausar is still a good finisher and passer, but he is a step below Amen IMO.

Rebounding, Defense are pretty much the same. Ausar averages more rebounds simply because Amen is guarding PG more often and playing on perimeter more frequently.

how it is even possible that ausar defers to amen when ausar takes more threes, scores more points per 40, more assists per 40, and shoots more FTs per 40. when he's in the game he's clearly doing more with the ball in terms of shooting/scoring and playmaking than amen. you've obviously seen them more than me, but your eyes are deceiving you it seems.

[JMAC3]

how it is even possible that ausar defers to amen when ausar takes more threes, scores more points per 40, more assists per 40, and shoots more FTs per 40. when he's in the game he's clearly doing more with the ball in terms of shooting/scoring and playmaking than amen. you've obviously seen them more than me, but your eyes are deceiving you it seems.

It would be interesting to see what percentage of each others points come off assists from the other twin.

I won't pretend to watch every game for them but seems like Amen is assisting a lot of easy buckets to Ausar. Whether that is in half court or fastbreaks.

[JMAC3]

Amen is also shooting 56% from the floor compared to Ausar 48%.