24 To Go: Would You Rather...

ecuhus1981 · Post #1 » by **ecuhus1981** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:55 am

OK, fellow Nets fans. We're 34-24 at the All-Star Break, 5th in the East. The 2 players most responsible for our lofty place in the standings... have departed. In their place, we have a bevy of 4th/5th starters and rotation players, and a restocked war chest of future draft picks. If it were a marathon, we'd be well suited to win a battle of attrition. But this is a 24-game sprint, where tight game outcomes boil down to star power.

We won't re-litigate the choices that led to those trades, nor the rumored alternatives. I'm glad we are in the post-Scary-Hours era. Our long term prospects are good, especially compared to before 7-11.

The lingering short term question I have for Brooklyn is: where do we go from here, this season? IMO, we stand a really good chance of falling out of automatic playoff seeding, the top 6 spots. Too many decent teams with bigger, better closers who made moves to improve at the trade deadline, while we deconstructed. We also look vulnerable in a one-off, play-in scenario. A flimsy 7-17 finish for an overall 41-41 record, 8th place and losing 2 play-in games to Trae Young and Bradley Beal is my nightmare. Yet, it looks like a likely doomsday scenario.

Instead, I offer 2 alternatives:

1) we sit everyone over 30 and/or hobbled with injuries, and give extended minutes to Cam Thomas (the tank engine) and Day'Ron Sharpe for development. We bottom out HARD, going 4-20 for a 38-44 record, 11th in the East, 11th-worst record in the league. Only a 2.5% at the 1st overall pick, but in a deep draft we could still find a franchise cornerstone. OR...

2) we sit Cam and Day'Ron completely, and only use weak defenders like Joe and Patty sparingly. We focus on our identity as a defensive juggernaut, get some late game heroics from Mikal and eek out a 12-12 record down the stretch, 46-36 overall, 6th in the East. And we get bounced in 5 by the 3rd-seeded Sixers.

Which would you choose, and why?

Papi_swav · Post #2 » by **Papi_swav** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:09 am

I choose the middle ground, the grey area. Just develop and keep playing guys with different rotations. I don't see why Cam/Sharpe can't get minutes, they should be able to even with our full depth. Bridges and Clax are probably the only guys I'll play over 35 minutes, everybody else it depends on who's playing well in the game and who's not. We must keep on playing guys to get in game reps and develop their games even further which is why we should continue to play everybody, and that playoff intensity will help them.

I see Bridges and Clax as our core main pieces for the future. Cam Thomas, Cam Johnson, Sharpe, Yuta etc.. are definitely welcomed back but are assets for us right now and it's important to let them further develop for trades or even if we keep them. To me it doesn't matter if we make the playoffs or not at this point, we aren't winning the chip so it's about giving the young guys the reps and experience so they can know what to work on in the summer.

Right now we're at #5, I expect Knicks to jump ahead of us and then we're 2 1/2 games up in front of the HEAT at the 7th spot for the play ins which I see them jumping us as well. The Hawks are 5 1/2 games back of us at 8 so it'll be really tough for them to jump us and I don't see that happening so I predict we'll be in 7th by seasons end. Looking at our remaning schedule I see us going 9-15 which will give us a 43-39 record. So the Hawks and lower teams will have to win 15 games or more to overtake us which is doable but is a tough task with only 24 games.

Tanking does not work as been proven, it just doesn't. It's best to work with what you have and develop a culture with core pieces until others come along. I also trust Marks drafting and I believe we can find a nice player drafting at #18 or so, might not be a superstar but it might be. As long as it's a nice player that has some skills, right attitude, he can develop into a nice piece for our future whether as a starter or bench piece or trade asset.

TheNetsFan · Post #3 » by **TheNetsFan** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:13 pm

So much disagreement. You can't say Kyrie is one of the two most responsible for our record, when we still had a winning record without him. Claxton has been more impactful. We're also significantly more likely to hold a top 6 seed than fall to the play-in. We may fall behind NY to 6th (unless we win the next game and clinch the tie break), but 2.5 up (3 in the loss column) with a tiebreaker clinched against Miami is a sizable cushion.

Evaluation of new and young guys should be prioritized, as well as rehabilitation of trade value for guys under contract next year. That can be done while playing .500 ball and maintaining a top 6 seed.

njnets62892 · Post #4 » by **njnets62892** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:13 pm

Playing Cam Thomas more doesn't really equate to tanking for me. The team needs his scoring punch to win games and we have enough plus defenders to cover for him on that end. I think he's played more in the flow of the offense the last couple of games as well. Still getting his shots but passing more and not forcing things as much.

Sharpe is a nonfactor to me. He's a decent enough rebounder but I don't see anything that tells me he'll ever develop into anything other than a below average role player. He's not on my radar for the future of this team.

I think they'll play around .500 ball the rest of the way. We're good enough to beat the bad teams but not enough offensive firepower to beat good ones on a consistent basis. Development should take a front seat but I don't see any incentive to tanking. I think it would be better for the future outlook to finish the season on a high note and make the playoffs rather than go 4-20 for the 13th pick or something like that.

Post #5 » by **CalamityX12** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:54 pm

At this point, we're so far off to lose out into the lottery so might as well enjoy the ride.

Normally, yes I would vote tank. No questions about it.

But to do that, we probably won't fail out of it and still be in the play in situation. So i rather we keep in the 4/5 seed range where we actually have a good matchup rather than playing Boston or MIL in the first.

Post #6 » by **CalamityX12** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:55 pm

But playing for playoffs shouldn't mean the exclusion of Cam or even the former 3pt leader Yuta.... ride and die with their experience too...

ecuhus1981 · Post #7 » by **ecuhus1981** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:57 pm

I'm glad to see such a spirited response! And I'm pleasantly surprised to see that I'm the most pessimistic one among us. I hope our Meets prove me wrong!

Looking at the rest of the season objectively, I think my outlook is closer to statistical projections than the majority on this board. Does that make me feel good, to be the bearer of bad news? Heck no! I just wanted to share my perspective, and I'm gonna be just as tuned in as anyone to support our team.

MrDollarBills · Post #8 » by **MrDollarBills** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:19 pm

njnets62892 wrote:Playing Cam Thomas more doesn't really equate to tanking for me. The team needs his scoring punch to win games and we have enough plus defenders to cover for him on that end. I think he's played more in the flow of the offense the last couple of games as well. Still getting his shots but passing more and not forcing things as much.

Sharpe is a nonfactor to me. He's a decent enough rebounder but I don't see anything that tells me he'll ever develop into anything other than a below average role player. He's not on my radar for the future of this team.

I think they'll play around .500 ball the rest of the way. We're good enough to beat the bad teams but not enough offensive firepower to beat good ones on a consistent basis. Development should take a front seat but I don't see any incentive to tanking. I think it would be better for the future outlook to finish the season on a high note and make the playoffs rather than go 4-20 for the 13th pick or something like that.

We need Bridges, CamT, CamJ, and Dinwiddie to provide offense.

ecuhus1981 · Post #9 » by **ecuhus1981** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:35 pm

Check out this FiveThirtyEight season projection page:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/games/

They predict 9 wins, 14 losses and one 50/50 game. If we close out the season 10-14, that gives us a 44-38 overall record, probably the 7th seed. That's where we're headed, by standing on the fence between contention and rebuilding. I say either play the kids and rest the vets to prepare for summer trades, or freeze out the kids because they are not helping us win. The eye test can be deceiving, look at 538's on off numbers for Thomas and Sharpe. They do not help us win right now.

We saw what the Two Timelines strategy did for Golden State, a team with much more talent than us. I just don't like it, even for a short time period. We need to choose a direction, and put all of our focus into it.

Ecmic · Post #10 » by **Ecmic** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:39 am

I think bottoming out poses existential risks to this specific team following what it, specifically, just went through. The risk/reward seems skewed toward prioritizing wins, at least for the rest of this season.

ecuhus1981 · Post #11 » by **ecuhus1981** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:06 pm

Our starters are Spencer at the 1, Mikal at the 2, Johnson at the 3, Dorian at the 4 and Nic at the 5. Those are locks no matter which direction we take.

The real question is, who soaks up bench minutes? Also, how heavily do we want to lean on the 1st unit? It's a new squad and they need time to gel. If we are pushing for the postseason, I would run them into the ground, 34mpg minimum for each, Toronto style. If we are more concerned with developing youth and putting 2nd vets in the trade market this summer, I would ease off those starter minutes to maybe 28mpg for each.

Also, if we're serious about the postseason, Sharpe and Thomas aren't doing anything for us. If we had a transcendent star who covers up warts on the roster, then yeah, we can play Cam T more to get him some playoff experience. But without that lead alpha dog, we don't have the room for error to play him or Day'Ron, and make it to the playoffs.

So, if you had to choose your 6th, 7th and 8th men, are you choosing Patty, Joe and Royce, or Ben, Killa and DayDay?

TheNetsFan · Post #12 » by **TheNetsFan** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:22 pm

ecuhus1981 wrote:Our starters are Spencer at the 1, Mikal at the 2, Johnson at the 3, Dorian at the 4 and Nic at the 5. Those are locks no matter which direction we take.

The real question is, who soaks up bench minutes? Also, how heavily do we want to lean on the 1st unit? It's a new squad and they need time to gel. If we are pushing for the postseason, I would run them into the ground, 34mpg minimum for each, Toronto style. If we are more concerned with developing youth and putting 2nd vets in the trade market this summer, I would ease off those starter minutes to maybe 28mpg for each.

Also, if we're serious about the postseason, Sharpe and Thomas aren't doing anything for us. If we had a transcendent star who covers up warts on the roster, then yeah, we can play Cam T more to get him some playoff experience. But without that lead alpha dog, we don't have the room for error to play him or Day'Ron, and make it to the playoffs.

So, if you had to choose your 6th, 7th and 8th men, are you choosing Patty, Joe and Royce, or Ben, Killa and DayDay?

I'm not sure DFS is a lock to start going forward, but he's definitely a favorite to start. Royce, Ben & Joe should be 6, 7 & 8, though I'd have a needs dependent #9 ready to go (Cam/Curry). I could see putting Cam @ #8, but I think 8 instead of 9 deep is a mistake.

Tha King · Post #13 » by **Tha King** » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:46 pm

I think the team could move way down in the standings regardless of rotations because the remaining schedule is very tough. Just look at the next five:
Bulls (Away)
Hawks (A)
Bucks (H)
Knicks (A) B2B
Celtics (A)

It's certainly possible the team doesn't win many of those games. After that you still have Nuggets twice, Cavs twice, Bucks, Heat, etc. Then factor, the Hawks, Heat, and Knicks all recently added depth and are looking to make runs. So the team could be play-in at best regardless of rotations.

I don't necessarily think that would be all that bad. This team needs a lead guard/scorer and a draft pick closer to top 10 than 25 will more likely get you a Paul George, Mitchell, Hailburton, etc.

TheNetsFan · Post #14 » by **TheNetsFan** » Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:49 am

Goals:
We have 4 games against the bottom 4, truly tanking teams. Those are games that we must win.

We have 7 more against sub-.500 teams that are still trying. Those are games you need to win the majority of (i.e. 5-2 or better).

We have 7 games against teams that win at a .500-.600 clip. Those are teams that we should consider "on our tier" that we should theoretically be able to split against (4-3 or 3-4).

That leaves 6 games against the elites. You hope to steal 1 or 2 of those, but even if we get swept by these teams, if we can hit the targets above, we'd go .500 the rest of the way & very likely avoid the play-in.

Post #15 » by **CalamityX12** » Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:23 am

Judging this bulls gm, the team chose tank

ecuhus1981 · Post #16 » by **ecuhus1981** » Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:05 am

CalamityX12 wrote:Judging this bulls gm, the team chose tank

Exactly!

We're a flawed team at our best. When we try to compromise our best, by getting the young guys a few minutes, it doesn't satisfy the young guys OR our competitive hopes.

The best thing we can do is choose a direction. Either play Thomas and Sharpe 30mpg to shine up their value, or don't play them at all so that the rest of the team can work on short term winning. That's not to say that it's all the fault of the kids, but they have the longest path to becoming contributors on a playoff team.

JoseRizal · Post #17 » by **JoseRizal** » Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:14 am

After this disaster of a game, I think we need to rethink... :banghead:

sashaturiaf · Post #18 » by **sashaturiaf** » Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:50 am

Tank all the way.

I'd rather have a better pick (and a puncher's chance of a top 5 pick) than to get our butts whupped in the first round by the Celtics or Bucks. We'd also be running the risk of devaluing our trade assets since playoffs ball shines a spotlight on players while also highlighting their weaknesses.