2023 Jokic vs 2016 Steph: RS only

[eminence]

If we're just talking offense...

2016 Steph's on/off ORTG: +14 (ORTG of 119 when on court, +12 over league average)
2023 Jokic's on/off ORTG: +18 (ORTG of 126 when on court, +12 over league average)

And for total on/off:

2016 Steph: +21
2023 Jokic: +27 (!!!)

I used to think 2016 Steph was the greatest offensive regular season ever but Jokic is churning out a similar level of offense as Curry did (relative to league average) while having notably less offensive talent around him. I think I lean Jokic.

anyone wanna breakdown lineup adjustment?

Not in any depth, but some stats that try to summarize such a thing (absolute numbers may not be comparable season to season, I'm uncertain on each):

'16 Steph: +4.76 RAPM (shotcharts, 2nd to Draymond), +12.5 Raptor (1st), +11.37 RPM (1st), in the +8 Darko DPM range (unsure of rank)

'23 Jokic: +3.7 RAPM (2nd to Tatum), +14.3 Raptor (1st), +8.21 RPM (4th to Tatum/Embiid/LeBron), in the +6 Darko DPM range

Bbref currently has Jokic at +13.7 on and +24.2 on/off, Curry at +18.0 on and +22.6 on/off for '16 (Dray +18.5/+26.3).

Would add PIPM and EPM if I had access to them currently. That's most of the publicly available stuff I can think of.

Most single season player isolation metrics seem to lean Curry by a small margin would be my summary.

[OhayoKD]

If we're just talking offense...

2016 Steph's on/off ORTG: +14 (ORTG of 119 when on court, +12 over league average)
2023 Jokic's on/off ORTG: +18 (ORTG of 126 when on court, +12 over league average)

And for total on/off:

2016 Steph: +21
2023 Jokic: +27 (!!!)

I used to think 2016 Steph was the greatest offensive regular season ever but Jokic is churning out a similar level of offense as Curry did (relative to league average) while having notably less offensive talent around him. I think I lean Jokic.

anyone wanna breakdown lineup adjustment?

Not in any depth, but some stats that try to summarize such a thing (absolute numbers may not be comparable season to season, I'm uncertain on each):

'16 Steph: +4.76 RAPM (shotcharts, 2nd to Draymond), +12.5 Raptor (1st), +11.37 RPM (1st), in the +8 Darko DPM range (unsure of rank)

'23 Jokic: +3.7 RAPM (2nd to Tatum), +14.3 Raptor (1st), +8.21 RPM (4th to Tatum/Embiid/LeBron), in the +6 Darko DPM range

Bbref currently has Jokic at +13.7 on and +24.2 on/off, Curry at +18.0 on and +22.6 on/off for '16 (Dray +18.5/+26.3).

Would add PIPM and EPM if I had access to them currently. That's most of the publicly available stuff I can think of.

Most single season player isolation metrics seem to lean Curry by a small margin would be my summary.

Eh, RPM and Darko gap seems pretty significant and to my knowledge those are the state of art stuff currently. Wonder why RAPTOR disagrees. It's the worst performing metric per unibro, but I would have guessed it would overrate curry. Maybe Curry creating a bunch outside of assists leads to him being underrated.

For a single season with access to modern tech(comparing two offense-skewed stars), I'd trust the adjusted stuff over the raw stuff by a margin. Curry also "felt" more league-breaking to me in real-time for whatever that's worth. Colinearity is always a concern with steph/dray but lineup-adjustment (theoretically) takes care of some of that? Wonder if that plays a factor with Jokic as well since he looks worse when stuff gets adjusted

[Colbinii]

Same Tier of players for me. For RS, only behind two-way megastars [Duncan, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, KG, Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, Robinson] and right in the mix with Bird, Magic, Walton, Russell, CP3, Oscar, West

[Peregrine01]

Why do you say Jokic has notably less offensive talent around him this year? How would you rank the talent on the supporting casts offensively, and do you value them each individually?

Probably because I just don't view Murray and MPJ in as high a light as Draymond, Klay that year. And there's always been a fairly strong degree of codependency between Dray and Steph whereas Jokic seems to turn out elite offenses no matter who's with him.

You have '16 Draymond above Murray and MPJ offense only?

Absolutely yes. Dray has always been one of the best playmakers in the league and has a unique synergy with Steph. On top of that he had an outlier shooting season that year.

Nothing about Murray or MPJ seems special to me and their offense tends to fall off a cliff whenever they’re playing without Jokic.

[OhayoKD]

Same Tier of players for me. For RS, only behind two-way megastars [Duncan, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, KG, Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, Robinson] and right in the mix with Bird, Magic, Walton, Russell, CP3, Oscar, West

I think CP3 belongs in the "two-way" category here. Or at least there's a viable case to be made there I think. He's got the impact profile of a GOAT-level defensive guard, and while people have concerns about his athleticism, I do think that could plausibly be compensated for by CP3 arguably being the best defensive floor-general/orchestrator in history for any sg or pg.

From what I've read here, west also was an elite wing defender.

Implying there are 9 players better than Russell seems like a stretch if we aren't applying era-penalties(and I don't think we are given some of the guys you put in the first category). Is this a translation concern?

[OhayoKD]

Probably because I just don't view Murray and MPJ in as high a light as Draymond, Klay that year. And there's always been a fairly strong degree of codependency between Dray and Steph whereas Jokic seems to turn out elite offenses no matter who's with him.

You have '16 Draymond above Murray and MPJ offense only?

Absolutely yes. Dray has always been one of the best playmakers in the league and has a unique synergy with Steph. On top of that he had an outlier shooting season that year.

Nothing about Murray or MPJ seems special to me and their offense tends to fall off a cliff whenever they’re playing without Jokic.

Dray has never been "one of the best playmakers" in the league. He's been one of the best passers but that doesn't translate to "one of the best playmakers" without a scoring threat to force defenses to give openigs

[Peregrine01]

You have '16 Draymond above Murray and MPJ offense only?

Absolutely yes. Dray has always been one of the best playmakers in the league and has a unique synergy with Steph. On top of that he had an outlier shooting season that year.

Nothing about Murray or MPJ seems special to me and their offense tends to fall off a cliff whenever they’re playing without Jokic.

Dray has never been "one of the best playmakers" in the league. He's been one of the best passers but that doesn't translate to "one of the best playmakers" without a scoring threat to force defenses to give openigs

Perhaps passing is the better term to use there when you think of his skills in isolation. But I think his playmaking is a hugely overlooked key to the Warriors’ offense during their dynasty. He’s a catalyst for a lot of the Warriors’ actions, especially Steph.

[parsnips33]

You have '16 Draymond above Murray and MPJ offense only?

Absolutely yes. Dray has always been one of the best playmakers in the league and has a unique synergy with Steph. On top of that he had an outlier shooting season that year.

Nothing about Murray or MPJ seems special to me and their offense tends to fall off a cliff whenever they’re playing without Jokic.

Dray has never been "one of the best playmakers" in the league. He's been one of the best passers but that doesn't translate to "one of the best playmakers" without a scoring threat to force defenses to give openigs

How does screening come into the picture with you? He's always been one of the best at using his body to create space for others - do you see that as distinct from "playmaking"?

[ronnymac2]

You know, even as somebody who cringes whenever I hear that Jokic is having a GOAT-level season or is the offensive GOAT, I'd definitely take Jokic over Curry.

Somebody said Jokic needs teammates to move around to realize the value or impact he creates on the court. I'm sorry, they still play 5 vs. 5 basketball in the NBA, correct? Is having four other super athletes move around a little bit and catch a ball that tough of an ask?

Somebody asks about offensive supporting casts. Denver has maybe three NBA-caliber offensive players outside of Jokic. Curry had the best fleet of intelligent passers of the modern era, a top-5 3-point shooter ever, and a C/PF shooting 40% from 3 while perfectly handling the primary decision-maker role. What are we talking about here?

Curry is on the short list of highest IQs off-ball in NBA history. Honestly might be the highest considering he's so great using screens, give-and-gos, cuts, etc. He's mediocre as a decision-maker with the ball. Jokic is one of the best ever with the ball, and he's hyper-effective off-ball as well: rim-running before the defense sets, setting screens, offensive boards, and working his way into a threatening position where once he retrieves the ball, he volleys it to an open teammate without even cleanly catching the ball. Technically that's on-ball decision-making, but Jokic puts the work in prior to receiving the ball. Not saying he's Curry-level as a rover off-ball or anything, but he's closer to Curry off-ball than Curry is to Jokic on-ball imo. Terrific scoring efficiency as a true 3-level scorer as opposed to Curry who leverages the threat of his nuke to get to other places to score.

I'm not saying it isn't close. Curry is the GOAT shooter by a long shot, and he's unselfish to boot. That's lethal, especially during the 2016 REG SEA. I'd prefer what Jokic is doing, however. The greatest weapon an offense has is passing. It's the only avenue to optimize all five options you have on the floor. Not too many better than Jokic. That's my preference.

[ardee]

Same Tier of players for me. For RS, only behind two-way megastars [Duncan, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, KG, Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, Robinson] and right in the mix with Bird, Magic, Walton, Russell, CP3, Oscar, West

You have CP3 above Wade and Kobe?

[ardee]

You know, even as somebody who cringes whenever I hear that Jokic is having a GOAT-level season or is the offensive GOAT, I'd definitely take Jokic over Curry.

Somebody said Jokic needs teammates to move around to realize the value or impact he creates on the court. I'm sorry, they still play 5 vs. 5 basketball in the NBA, correct? Is having four other super athletes move around a little bit and catch a ball that tough of an ask?

Somebody asks about offensive supporting casts. Denver has maybe three NBA-caliber offensive players outside of Jokic. Curry had the best fleet of intelligent passers of the modern era, a top-5 3-point shooter ever, and a C/PF shooting 40% from 3 while perfectly handling the primary decision-maker role. What are we talking about here?

Curry is on the short list of highest IQs off-ball in NBA history. Honestly might be the highest considering he's so great using screens, give-and-gos, cuts, etc. He's mediocre as a decision-maker with the ball. Jokic is one of the best ever with the ball, and he's hyper-effective off-ball as well: rim-running before the defense sets, setting screens, offensive boards, and working his way into a threatening position where once he retrieves the ball, he volleys it to an open teammate without even cleanly catching the ball. Technically that's on-ball decision-making, but Jokic puts the work in prior to receiving the ball. Not saying he's Curry-level as a rover off-ball or anything, but he's closer to Curry off-ball than Curry is to Jokic on-ball imo. Terrific scoring efficiency as a true 3-level scorer as opposed to Curry who leverages the threat of his nuke to get to other places to score.

I'm not saying it isn't close. Curry is the GOAT shooter by a long shot, and he's unselfish to boot. That's lethal, especially during the 2016 REG SEA. I'd prefer what Jokic is doing, however. The greatest weapon an offense has is passing. It's the only avenue to optimize all five options you have on the floor. Not too many better than Jokic. That's my preference.

You don't even think he's in the discussion? Raw stats are INSANE as are impact stats.

[McBubbles]

You know, even as somebody who cringes whenever I hear that Jokic is having a GOAT-level season or is the offensive GOAT, I'd definitely take Jokic over Curry.

Somebody said Jokic needs teammates to move around to realize the value or impact he creates on the court. I'm sorry, they still play 5 vs. 5 basketball in the NBA, correct? Is having four other super athletes move around a little bit and catch a ball that tough of an ask?

Somebody asks about offensive supporting casts. Denver has maybe three NBA-caliber offensive players outside of Jokic. Curry had the best fleet of intelligent passers of the modern era, a top-5 3-point shooter ever, and a C/PF shooting 40% from 3 while perfectly handling the primary decision-maker role. What are we talking about here?

Curry is on the short list of highest IQs off-ball in NBA history. Honestly might be the highest considering he's so great using screens, give-and-gos, cuts, etc. He's mediocre as a decision-maker with the ball. Jokic is one of the best ever with the ball, and he's hyper-effective off-ball as well: rim-running before the defense sets, setting screens, offensive boards, and working his way into a threatening position where once he retrieves the ball, he volleys it to an open teammate without even cleanly catching the ball. Technically that's on-ball decision-making, but Jokic puts the work in prior to receiving the ball. Not saying he's Curry-level as a rover off-ball or anything, but he's closer to Curry off-ball than Curry is to Jokic on-ball imo. Terrific scoring efficiency as a true 3-level scorer as opposed to Curry who leverages the threat of his nuke to get to other places to score.

I'm not saying it isn't close. Curry is the GOAT shooter by a long shot, and he's unselfish to boot. That's lethal, especially during the 2016 REG SEA. I'd prefer what Jokic is doing, however. The greatest weapon an offense has is passing. It's the only avenue to optimize all five options you have on the floor. Not too many better than Jokic. That's my preference.

Why do you cringe when you hear someone say he's having a goat level, offensive season?

[Colbinii]

Same Tier of players for me. For RS, only behind two-way megastars [Duncan, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, KG, Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, Robinson] and right in the mix with Bird, Magic, Walton, Russell, CP3, Oscar, West

You have CP3 above Wade and Kobe?

For RS Peaks? Yeah, but all of Wade & Kobe & Harden can be in the same tier as the latter group.

CP3 2009 RS: 30.0 PER, 59.9 TS% [+5.5 TS%], +163.6 TS+, 18.3 WS [.292 WS/48], 7.2 OBPM [11.0 BPM but I don't care for DBPM]
CP3 averaged 23/5.5/11/2.8 [Led league in AST and STL] with minimal turnovers [a career high 3.0 per game] while, wait for it--The Hornets posted a 112.6 Ortg with him on the court and a 96.6 Ortg with him on the bench

Kobe 2008 RS: 28.0 PER, 57.6 TS% [+4.0 TS%], +118.3 TS+, 15.3 WS [.224 WS/48], 7.4 OBPM
Kobe averaged 35/5/5/1.8 [Insane scoring season] with 3.1 turnovers and monster offensive lift [111.3 Ortg on court versus 92.4 Ortg on the bench]

Wade 2009 RS: 30.4 PER, 57.4 TS% [+3.0 TS], +123.3 TS+, 14.7 WS [.232 WS/48], 8.2 OBPM
Wade averaged 30/5/8/2.2/1.3 [Insane 2-way season] with 3.4 turnovers and huge lift [110.5 Ortg on court versus 99.4 Ortg on the bench]

The biggest difference [between these 3] is defense in their respective seasons. Both CP3 and Wade played all-defensive level defense for the entire season. Kobe? Not so much.

Why did I not include Harden? It becomes awfully difficult to compare these types of statistics cross-era, especially Post-2016.

[ronnymac2]

You know, even as somebody who cringes whenever I hear that Jokic is having a GOAT-level season or is the offensive GOAT, I'd definitely take Jokic over Curry.

Somebody said Jokic needs teammates to move around to realize the value or impact he creates on the court. I'm sorry, they still play 5 vs. 5 basketball in the NBA, correct? Is having four other super athletes move around a little bit and catch a ball that tough of an ask?

Somebody asks about offensive supporting casts. Denver has maybe three NBA-caliber offensive players outside of Jokic. Curry had the best fleet of intelligent passers of the modern era, a top-5 3-point shooter ever, and a C/PF shooting 40% from 3 while perfectly handling the primary decision-maker role. What are we talking about here?

Curry is on the short list of highest IQs off-ball in NBA history. Honestly might be the highest considering he's so great using screens, give-and-gos, cuts, etc. He's mediocre as a decision-maker with the ball. Jokic is one of the best ever with the ball, and he's hyper-effective off-ball as well: rim-running before the defense sets, setting screens, offensive boards, and working his way into a threatening position where once he retrieves the ball, he volleys it to an open teammate without even cleanly catching the ball. Technically that's on-ball decision-making, but Jokic puts the work in prior to receiving the ball. Not saying he's Curry-level as a rover off-ball or anything, but he's closer to Curry off-ball than Curry is to Jokic on-ball imo. Terrific scoring efficiency as a true 3-level scorer as opposed to Curry who leverages the threat of his nuke to get to other places to score.

I'm not saying it isn't close. Curry is the GOAT shooter by a long shot, and he's unselfish to boot. That's lethal, especially during the 2016 REG SEA. I'd prefer what Jokic is doing, however. The greatest weapon an offense has is passing. It's the only avenue to optimize all five options you have on the floor. Not too many better than Jokic. That's my preference.

You don't even think he's in the discussion? Raw stats are INSANE as are impact stats.

Can't compare stats in the Era of Optimization to past era stat profiles. Also, he's on what I consider to be a roster of mediocre offensive talent (and I'm being kind to these guys). I want to see Jokic in a different setting to see where the stats - both impact and box - go.

He's definitely one of the top offensive players today, if not the flat-out best. The offensive GOAT arguments need to be put on hold until the story arc is more complete.

[ardee]

You know, even as somebody who cringes whenever I hear that Jokic is having a GOAT-level season or is the offensive GOAT, I'd definitely take Jokic over Curry.

Somebody said Jokic needs teammates to move around to realize the value or impact he creates on the court. I'm sorry, they still play 5 vs. 5 basketball in the NBA, correct? Is having four other super athletes move around a little bit and catch a ball that tough of an ask?

Somebody asks about offensive supporting casts. Denver has maybe three NBA-caliber offensive players outside of Jokic. Curry had the best fleet of intelligent passers of the modern era, a top-5 3-point shooter ever, and a C/PF shooting 40% from 3 while perfectly handling the primary decision-maker role. What are we talking about here?

Curry is on the short list of highest IQs off-ball in NBA history. Honestly might be the highest considering he's so great using screens, give-and-gos, cuts, etc. He's mediocre as a decision-maker with the ball. Jokic is one of the best ever with the ball, and he's hyper-effective off-ball as well: rim-running before the defense sets, setting screens, offensive boards, and working his way into a threatening position where once he retrieves the ball, he volleys it to an open teammate without even cleanly catching the ball. Technically that's on-ball decision-making, but Jokic puts the work in prior to receiving the ball. Not saying he's Curry-level as a rover off-ball or anything, but he's closer to Curry off-ball than Curry is to Jokic on-ball imo. Terrific scoring efficiency as a true 3-level scorer as opposed to Curry who leverages the threat of his nuke to get to other places to score.

I'm not saying it isn't close. Curry is the GOAT shooter by a long shot, and he's unselfish to boot. That's lethal, especially during the 2016 REG SEA. I'd prefer what Jokic is doing, however. The greatest weapon an offense has is passing. It's the only avenue to optimize all five options you have on the floor. Not too many better than Jokic. That's my preference.

You don't even think he's in the discussion? Raw stats are INSANE as are impact stats.

Can't compare stats in the Era of Optimization to past era stat profiles. Also, he's on what I consider to be a roster of mediocre offensive talent (and I'm being kind to these guys). I want to see Jokic in a different setting to see where the stats - both impact and box - go.

He's definitely one of the top offensive players today, if not the flat-out best. The offensive GOAT arguments need to be put on hold until the story arc is more complete.

I agree, and I don't see why that should be an argument against him. It means defenses can key in on him even more. I don't see why his box and impact numbers wouldn't be even better playing with better teammates.