Tank World Order (10.0) The Empire Strikes Back

[WuTang_CMB]

Comes down to Masai gets a thrill drafting out of the lottery to find a gem. Seems stupid with 22 games left to keep that mindset

Could have easily tanked and no one would say boo

You think he did this for his own pleasure?

imo it was unlikely they could get into the bottom 5 the rest of the way, so then you're just praying on lotto luck to really increase your odds. No Poeltl and selling low on Fred/OG gets you what? A few extra lotto balls? And if you strike out in the lottery you're still choosing that milky range of prospects 5-20.

No, he just rather stay away from tanking the year and finding a gem later on - that's just how he operates. Forget the bottom 5, do you understand that it's a lottery? You can crack in even if you are 7-8. If there was a year to stealth tank, this was it. You give yourself the best odds possible with 22 games left. No one would have blinked. Plus he was already willing to give up on Fred and OG for Clippers / GSW packages. What does that tell you?

[God Squad]

I don't think they've had much opportunity to be honest. We're in the championship hangover.

Well let's start with drafting. We've drafted at the 29th, 44th, 45th, 4th and 33rd.

We knocked the 4th pick out of the park (Barnes).
We missed on the 29th (Flynn).
44th and 45th look like misses, but hit rate on them is very low across the league.

Jury is out on Koloko in his rookie year. He's had good moments, he's had bad moments. Sure we could have had someone like Nembhard or Kessler. But we need to give it a few years.

Contract extensions? Pretty good.
FVV for not that much
Trent for that that much
Boucher for not that much.
Birch, meh that wasn't great.

Trades?
An expiring Lowry and we got Precious (which is a pretty damn good haul).
Thad trade isn't looking great, I think they thought Thad would give them more. Clearly he hasn't.

Poeltl trade. Obviously jury is still out, but in a weak 2024 draft and we're likely signing Poeltl long term. Getting a good center for 3-4 years in his prime.

Signings
Porter? It was low amount for an injury prone player. Calculated risk.

Other than that? I don't know if I see the opportunities or massive mistakes they've made. You can say "we should have tanked and sold our guys after the title". But again, no real proof shows that strategy works.

So Mid? All of what you said paints " Mid". Not bad, not great. But I agree with most of what you said.

But mid has to have context of what was available? It's not like we had top 10 picks and whiffed on them. It's not like we had capspace and whiffed on it.

We kept a competitive team and attempted to build a bench (failed) without giving up any draft capital. We finally decided we needed to give up a protected (very lightly, which I don't love) to add to that bench.

They're doing what they did the last time. Slow, iterative, "mid" improvements and eventually will try and make a splash.

Last time it led to a championship.

True, but I don't believe in FVV/Pascal the way I believed in Lowry/DD. Let me rephrase that. I don't think FVV is close to being our Lowry (Engine). But I like the Pascal/DD swap (scorer) if that makes sense. We need to address some matters immediately.

1. Free Agency
2. OG
3. Bench
4. Nurse (defensive schemes)

Lowry was a F'n warrior on the court, who inspired his teammates. I don't get that energy from Pascal and FVV.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Comes down to Masai gets a thrill drafting out of the lottery to find a gem. Seems stupid with 22 games left to keep that mindset

Could have easily tanked and no one would say boo

You think he did this for his own pleasure?

imo it was unlikely they could get into the bottom 5 the rest of the way, so then you're just praying on lotto luck to really increase your odds. No Poeltl and selling low on Fred/OG gets you what? A few extra lotto balls? And if you strike out in the lottery you're still choosing that milky range of prospects 5-20.

No, he just rather stay away from tanking the year and finding a gem later on - that's just how he operates. Forget the bottom 5, do you understand that it's a lottery? You can crack in even if you are 7-8. If there was a year to stealth tank, this was it. You give yourself the best odds possible with 22 games left. No one would have blinked.

No one would have blinked, but he's the one that has to build with the results whether they get lucky or not. He chose the easiest path for him to (keep) building up the team. Taking big Ls on trades just for a 6-7% chance at Wembanyama isn't good process.

[720]

Can't believe people are arguing tank vs not tank theory, failing to realize that it's the talent of the FO who can only navigate a successful tank. Giving the tanking history of Charlotte, wolves, magic, etc., who have bottom of the barrel GMs making decisions; as reasons for tanking not working is silly

Narrative:

1. Tear it down and begin multi-year tank
2. Acquire Elite Talent with top-4 draft pick
3. Build it back up again around Elite Talent
4. Win championship with Elite Talent as best player

^ tWo makes this sound like the obvious pattern. Almost inevitable.

But the counterargument isn't that some teams fail at this. The counterargument is that no team has successfully done this in decades (since free agency rule changes led to a pattern of players leaving **** teams).

The only teams that have somewhat succeeded drafted top 10-15 players of ALL TIME and during an era when stars stuck with their teams their entire careers.

The Thunder made the finals once. They're the closest example of success.
The Cavs lucked into Lebron signing back with them after he left them.

We lucked into Kawhi getting injured by Zaza and then the Spurs choosing to trade him after they have a public falling out over an injury diagnosis which led him to to us rather than countless other suitors. The odds of all those events happening is much lower than say 19 percent chance at getting one of scoot or Wembanyama (the odds to move up into the top 2 for us a couple days before the deadline).

If we’re talking luck, wishing for a once in a life time trade to happen again to the same franchise is more unlikely than getting superstar talent through the draft.

[Reeko]

Comes down to Masai gets a thrill drafting out of the lottery to find a gem. Seems stupid with 22 games left to keep that mindset

Could have easily tanked and no one would say boo

Only if you believe that his bosses would've been ok with tanking.

[T-d0t]

Narrative:

1. Tear it down and begin multi-year tank
2. Acquire Elite Talent with top-4 draft pick
3. Build it back up again around Elite Talent
4. Win championship with Elite Talent as best player

^ tWo makes this sound like the obvious pattern. Almost inevitable.

But the counterargument isn't that some teams fail at this. The counterargument is that no team has successfully done this in decades (since free agency rule changes led to a pattern of players leaving **** teams).

The only teams that have somewhat succeeded drafted top 10-15 players of ALL TIME and during an era when stars stuck with their teams their entire careers.

The Thunder made the finals once. They're the closest example of success.
The Cavs lucked into Lebron signing back with them after he left them.

We lucked into Kawhi getting injured by Zaza and then the Spurs choosing to trade him after they have a public falling out over an injury diagnosis which led him to to us rather than countless other suitors. The odds of all those events happening is much lower than say 19 percent chance at getting one of scoot or Wembanyama (the odds to move up into the top 2 for us a couple days before the deadline).

If we’re talking luck, wishing for a once in a life time trade to happen again to the same franchise is more unlikely than getting superstar talent through the draft.

Also don't forget, the Spurs chose our package over trading Kawhi to the Lakers for pretty much the Anthony Davis haul. That Kawhi trade had so many things go our way it's not funny

[dTox]

Can't believe people are arguing tank vs not tank theory, failing to realize that it's the talent of the FO who can only navigate a successful tank. Giving the tanking history of Charlotte, wolves, magic, etc., who have bottom of the barrel GMs making decisions; as reasons for tanking not working is silly

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Except many of the same people who want to tank also **** on our FO. So ... there's a logic gap there.

It's more nuanced than that, it's okay to critique and question when you suspect the FO is making questionable decisions, but it doesn't mean you want them fired. It's mostly the extremists who want to torch the whole thing down (including FO / coaching staff), and like with politics / religion, the extremists represent a much smaller portion of the fanbase. Anyways, these fans existing doesn't mean that tank = failed strategy

[DelAbbot]

Comes down to Masai gets a thrill drafting out of the lottery to find a gem. Seems stupid with 22 games left to keep that mindset

Could have easily tanked and no one would say boo

Only if you believe that his bosses would've been ok with tanking.

That speculation has been disproven already. MLSE-owned Leafs tanked for Auston Matthews.

If we had enough injuries and underperformance, natural losing would take us into the lottery anyway - can't fight it in such seasons

[Wise80]

Comes down to Masai gets a thrill drafting out of the lottery to find a gem. Seems stupid with 22 games left to keep that mindset

Could have easily tanked and no one would say boo

You think he did this for his own pleasure?

imo it was unlikely they could get into the bottom 5 the rest of the way, so then you're just praying on lotto luck to really increase your odds. No Poeltl and selling low on Fred/OG gets you what? A few extra lotto balls? And if you strike out in the lottery you're still choosing that milky range of prospects 5-20.

No, he just rather stay away from tanking the year and finding a gem later on - that's just how he operates. Forget the bottom 5, do you understand that it's a lottery? You can crack in even if you are 7-8. If there was a year to stealth tank, this was it. You give yourself the best odds possible with 22 games left. No one would have blinked. Plus he was already willing to give up on Fred and OG for Clippers / GSW packages. What does that tell you?

Milky range of prospects 5 to 20? Come on lol.

My issue is that the pick they gave up for Jakob screws a lot of things up. They essentially need to keep chugging along next year as well now. And if they start slow, are they going to be tempted to dump more picks for help now so that they can try to win?

22 games left. You could have done the Tampa tank and just rested guys. You sit Fred and Pascal for a stretch and start banton or Flynn and you're going to lose. Barnes and Trent for the next 3 or 4 games and so on.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Narrative:

1. Tear it down and begin multi-year tank
2. Acquire Elite Talent with top-4 draft pick
3. Build it back up again around Elite Talent
4. Win championship with Elite Talent as best player

^ tWo makes this sound like the obvious pattern. Almost inevitable.

But the counterargument isn't that some teams fail at this. The counterargument is that no team has successfully done this in decades (since free agency rule changes led to a pattern of players leaving **** teams).

The only teams that have somewhat succeeded drafted top 10-15 players of ALL TIME and during an era when stars stuck with their teams their entire careers.

The Thunder made the finals once. They're the closest example of success.
The Cavs lucked into Lebron signing back with them after he left them.

We lucked into Kawhi getting injured by Zaza and then the Spurs choosing to trade him after they have a public falling out over an injury diagnosis which led him to to us rather than countless other suitors. The odds of all those events happening is much lower than say 19 percent chance at getting one of scoot or Wembanyama (the odds to move up into the top 2 for us a couple days before the deadline).

If we’re talking luck, wishing for a once in a life time trade to happen again to the same franchise is more unlikely than getting superstar talent through the draft.

Those players also have to fulfil their potential, which rarely happens as well. Lucking into Carmelo still doesn't get you a ring. We can talk luck all day, but we know that players of Kawhi's calibre become available frequently now and never command equal player value in return.

[Duffman100]

Narrative:

1. Tear it down and begin multi-year tank
2. Acquire Elite Talent with top-4 draft pick
3. Build it back up again around Elite Talent
4. Win championship with Elite Talent as best player

^ tWo makes this sound like the obvious pattern. Almost inevitable.

But the counterargument isn't that some teams fail at this. The counterargument is that no team has successfully done this in decades (since free agency rule changes led to a pattern of players leaving **** teams).

The only teams that have somewhat succeeded drafted top 10-15 players of ALL TIME and during an era when stars stuck with their teams their entire careers.

The Thunder made the finals once. They're the closest example of success.
The Cavs lucked into Lebron signing back with them after he left them.

We lucked into Kawhi getting injured by Zaza and then the Spurs choosing to trade him after they have a public falling out over an injury diagnosis which led him to to us rather than countless other suitors. The odds of all those events happening is much lower than say 19 percent chance at getting one of scoot or Wembanyama (the odds to move up into the top 2 for us a couple days before the deadline).

If we’re talking luck, wishing for a once in a life time trade to happen again to the same franchise is more unlikely than getting superstar talent through the draft.

VS the 'luck' of hitting a top 10-15 player of all time to our team and having that player stick with us and winning a title. Which... hasn't happened in what, 20 years?

Again, tanking has shown to not work and have very little success.

[ATLTimekeeper]

You think he did this for his own pleasure?

imo it was unlikely they could get into the bottom 5 the rest of the way, so then you're just praying on lotto luck to really increase your odds. No Poeltl and selling low on Fred/OG gets you what? A few extra lotto balls? And if you strike out in the lottery you're still choosing that milky range of prospects 5-20.

No, he just rather stay away from tanking the year and finding a gem later on - that's just how he operates. Forget the bottom 5, do you understand that it's a lottery? You can crack in even if you are 7-8. If there was a year to stealth tank, this was it. You give yourself the best odds possible with 22 games left. No one would have blinked. Plus he was already willing to give up on Fred and OG for Clippers / GSW packages. What does that tell you?

Milky range of prospects 5 to 20? Come on lol.

My issue is that the pick they gave up for Jakob screws a lot of things up. They essentially need to keep chugging along next year as well now. And if they start slow, are they going to be tempted to dump more picks for help now so that they can try to win?

22 games left. You could have done the Tampa tank and just rested guys. You sit Fred and Pascal for a stretch and start banton or Flynn and you're going to lose. Barnes and Trent for the next 3 or 4 games and so on.

Sit Fred heading into UFA? He's gone for sure, then. 6-20 the all-star probability drops significantly.

[WuTang_CMB]

You think he did this for his own pleasure?

imo it was unlikely they could get into the bottom 5 the rest of the way, so then you're just praying on lotto luck to really increase your odds. No Poeltl and selling low on Fred/OG gets you what? A few extra lotto balls? And if you strike out in the lottery you're still choosing that milky range of prospects 5-20.

No, he just rather stay away from tanking the year and finding a gem later on - that's just how he operates. Forget the bottom 5, do you understand that it's a lottery? You can crack in even if you are 7-8. If there was a year to stealth tank, this was it. You give yourself the best odds possible with 22 games left. No one would have blinked.

No one would have blinked, but he's the one that has to build with the results whether they get lucky or not. He chose the easiest path for him to (keep) building up the team. Taking big Ls on trades just for a 6-7% chance at Wembanyama isn't good process.

Disagree. It certainly was fine to do it this year. What isn't good process is going for the play in.

[ATLTimekeeper]

30 years of #1 and #2 both panning out to HOF players.

1992, Shaq, Mourning
2019 Zion, Morant (tbd)

[WuTang_CMB]

Comes down to Masai gets a thrill drafting out of the lottery to find a gem. Seems stupid with 22 games left to keep that mindset

Could have easily tanked and no one would say boo

Only if you believe that his bosses would've been ok with tanking.

It's not traditional tanking for 3 years like what HOU is doing. It's a stealth tank for 22 games.

[WuTang_CMB]

30 years of #1 and #2 both panning out to HOF players.

1992, Shaq, Mourning
2019 Zion, Morant (tbd)

You forgot Kevin Durant

[Duffman100]

30 years of #1 and #2 both panning out to HOF players.

1992, Shaq, Mourning
2019 Zion, Morant (tbd)

You forgot Kevin Durant

He was talking about when both the #1 and #2 picks...

[ATLTimekeeper]

No, he just rather stay away from tanking the year and finding a gem later on - that's just how he operates. Forget the bottom 5, do you understand that it's a lottery? You can crack in even if you are 7-8. If there was a year to stealth tank, this was it. You give yourself the best odds possible with 22 games left. No one would have blinked.

No one would have blinked, but he's the one that has to build with the results whether they get lucky or not. He chose the easiest path for him to (keep) building up the team. Taking big Ls on trades just for a 6-7% chance at Wembanyama isn't good process.

Disagree. It certainly was fine to do it this year. What isn't good process is going for the play in.

The play-in is just results. They could have reached that without any trade. Acquiring Poeltl is presumably for the future as well, or else it really was a stupid decision. Trading out good players just to increase odds from 6% to 9% would be silly.

[WuTang_CMB]

30 years of #1 and #2 both panning out to HOF players.

1992, Shaq, Mourning
2019 Zion, Morant (tbd)

You forgot Kevin Durant

He was talking about when both the #1 and #2 picks...

Not sure what this stat has to do with this. The argument is you put yourself in a better draft position to draft better talent.

We just went through this in 2021

[ATLTimekeeper]

You forgot Kevin Durant

He was talking about when both the #1 and #2 picks...

Not sure what this stat has to do with this. The argument is you put yourself in a better draft position to draft better talent.

We just went through this in 2021

It's in response to tanking for Wembanyama and Scoot, as opposed to waiting around for another Kawhi trade.