Hot Takes – 2023 Draft

[The-Power]

Some good stuff, @reanimator.

-Kobe Bufkin is the 3rd best guard in the draft

Behind Scoot and George, I suppose? Who do you consider Guards that are usually ranked ahead of him?

-Nick Smith Jr will top out as a 6th man being small, limited as a facilitator, and defender

Yeah, that's where I'm with him, too. I don't see him as a lottery pick and perhaps not in the teens either.

-Keyonte George will average >25ppg, >60 TS%, >2:1 assist to turnover at his NBA peak

One of the two I can see as a positive-end outcome. Both I would seriously doubt unless he has an insane development curve, but that's what makes it a hot take.

-Anthony Black will struggle to find a consistent 3ball and never be a consistent NBA starter

It's the concern with him, for sure. I can still see him being a starter even with an inconsistent shot in the right scenario but it would clearly limit him as an on-ball creator.

-Brandon Miller will be more likely to be in the 6-10 range than 1-5 in a redraft 5 years from now

I would take that bet but it's surely a possible scenario.

-Brice Sensabaugh will not be a top 5 shooter in a redraft 5 years from now

There's something that makes me a bit skeptical about his shooting as well (in terms of being elite) even though the shooting indicators are very good. And considering that there are quite a few really good shooting prospects in this draft, I can see that.

-Dillon Mitchell will be the biggest riser in a redraft 5 years from now

Glad someone is still on the Mitchell train. I was on it during HS but have been pretty much off since early this season. Still, I can see him becoming a solid rotation player in the NBA (though it's far from a given). What do you expect from him?

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I don't think I have a lot of hot takes. Is considering Sidy Cissoko a potential lottery pick one? Having Brandon Miller in the same tier as Scoot is probably not that much of a take anymore (and I only recently got there myself). I currently don't have any of the Thompson twins, GG Jackson or Nick Smith in the lottery, which is probably unusual. I like Donovan Clingan more than Lively and Ware as prospects (not sure what the consensus on this one is here). Taylor Hendricks in the top 10 might be a hot take outside this board but clearly not on here. Kansas possibly having 3 players who deserve to be picked in the top 20 could be another hot-ish/warm take, but I'm not even sure if I'm quite there yet myself.

[Colbinii]

-Keyonte George will average >25ppg, >60 TS%, >2:1 assist to turnover at his NBA peak

One of the two I can see as a positive-end outcome. Both I would seriously doubt unless he has an insane development curve, but that's what makes it a hot take.

Reanimator thinks Keyonto will become a Top 10 player in the NBA? There is an extremely short list of players to average this statline.

George should easily be the #1 pick then on his board.

[reanimator]

Behind Scoot and George, I suppose? Who do you consider Guards that are usually ranked ahead of him?

Great thread.

I have him above Black and Jett for sure but behind Scoot and George. Black/Jett are players ranked (on average) above him but the former has that shooting/scoring ? that I can't quite shake and the latter should be highly integratabtle on offense but currently stagnates ball movement and doesn't defend. Wallace is kind of similar to Bufkin in that I trust him to keep the ball moving, knock down open shots, and defend at a high level but Bufkin is longer/rangier with more creative shotmaking.

Keyonte George will average >25ppg, >60 TS%, >2:1 assist to turnover at his NBA peak
One of the two I can see as a positive-end outcome. Both I would seriously doubt unless he has an insane development curve, but that's what makes it a hot take.

I don't disagree. I do worry about shot selection and he has some issues creating separation on drives which has affected his half court finishing but like Catchall said earlier, I am banking on NBA spacing alleviating a lot of that. But yeah, I'm all in despite those concerns.

Anthony Black will struggle to find a consistent 3ball and never be a consistent NBA starter
It's the concern with him, for sure. I can still see him being a starter even with an inconsistent shot in the right scenario but it would clearly limit him as an on-ball creator.

I would imagine Josh Giddey would be the obvious player to point to, but what would be the ideal NBA roster for a low volume scorer who does not space the floor but defends and facilitates?

-Brandon Miller will be more likely to be in the 6-10 range than 1-5 in a redraft 5 years from now
I would take that bet but it's surely a possible scenario.

This is the one most likely to blow up in my face.

-Dillon Mitchell will be the biggest riser in a redraft 5 years from now
Glad someone is still on the Mitchell train. I was on it during HS but have been pretty much off since early this season. Still, I can see him becoming a solid rotation player in the NBA (though it's far from a given). What do you expect from him?

All logic says to abort mission but I think he will have more opportunity in a faster paced offense and spaced court to show that defensive versatility and grab n go playmaking. I haven't seen a ton of Texas tbh to understand how he is utilized but he has a very obvious but very narrow set of strengths so it would seem easy for him to be unproductive if not in a very specific role. He is likely just a bust who could out physical out athlete a lot of kids but my grassroots viewings of him showed a kid with some instinctual playmaking both on defense and as a passer so his current ast, stl%, blk% is incomprehensible to me. Also sort of similar to Whitehead in that I am leaning heavily on grassroots production, though Dariq has shown more.

[reanimator]

-Keyonte George will average >25ppg, >60 TS%, >2:1 assist to turnover at his NBA peak

One of the two I can see as a positive-end outcome. Both I would seriously doubt unless he has an insane development curve, but that's what makes it a hot take.

Reanimator thinks Keyonto will become a Top 10 player in the NBA? There is an extremely short list of players to average this statline.

George should easily be the #1 pick then on his board.

Is or has Bradley Beal ever been a top 10 NBA player?

[EvanZ]

Dereck Lively is awesome. That is my hot take.

[clyde21]

- Judah Mintz is a lotto pick talent
- Trey Alexander is a top 25 pick talent
- Jordan Walsh will go a lot higher than people think, late first round a possibility
- Trevon Brazile is still on teams' radars despite injury and will be drafted if he declares
- DaRon Holmes is a top 3 big in this class after Wemby/Flip
- Rayan Rupert will be a top 12 pick
- Reece Beekman will be a Tyus Jones type PG in the NBA
- Dariq Whitehead is still a top 10 from a strictly talent standpoint, where he goes is anyone's guess
- Greater than 0% chance Coleman Hawkins gets a Trey Murphy type push leading up to draft

[Colbinii]

One of the two I can see as a positive-end outcome. Both I would seriously doubt unless he has an insane development curve, but that's what makes it a hot take.

Reanimator thinks Keyonto will become a Top 10 player in the NBA? There is an extremely short list of players to average this statline.

George should easily be the #1 pick then on his board.

Is or has Bradley Beal ever been a top 10 NBA player?

Bradley Beal never did that.

Irrelevant. Next question

[CP War Hawks]

Edey is on the level of the 2nd tier bigs like Flip and Lively. I think Ware has top 5 upside in this draft, maybe more top 10 but you get my drift. I like Leonard Miller more than most.

[reanimator]

Reanimator thinks Keyonto will become a Top 10 player in the NBA? There is an extremely short list of players to average this statline.

George should easily be the #1 pick then on his board.

Is or has Bradley Beal ever been a top 10 NBA player?

Bradley Beal never did that.

Irrelevant. Next question

You're right he was centimeters away a few times but regardless it would have not made him a top 10 player nor the #1 prospect in this draft.

Shai, for example, exceeds those parameters this year and is still only arguable as a backend top 10 NBA player.

[Colbinii]

Is or has Bradley Beal ever been a top 10 NBA player?

Bradley Beal never did that.

Irrelevant. Next question

You're right he was centimeters away a few times but regardless it would have not made him a top 10 player nor the #1 prospect in this draft.

Shai, for example, exceeds those parameters this year and is still only arguable as a backend top 10 NBA player.

Sure, and my point is most players would select a Top 10 player #1 overall and be happy. I think if you told every GM he was guaranteed to average those for his peak, he would be a unanimous #1 overall.

[reanimator]

Bradley Beal never did that.

Irrelevant. Next question

You're right he was centimeters away a few times but regardless it would have not made him a top 10 player nor the #1 prospect in this draft.

Shai, for example, exceeds those parameters this year and is still only arguable as a backend top 10 NBA player.

Sure, and my point is most players would select a Top 10 player #1 overall and be happy. I think if you told every GM he was guaranteed to average those for his peak, he would be a unanimous #1 overall.

Not when you have a 2 way unicorn who has 25/10/3(blocks) potential and another guy who has 20/10 60 TS% potential and are more likely to reach it without it being a hot take but being #3 on a big board isn't some slight.

[Colbinii]

You're right he was centimeters away a few times but regardless it would have not made him a top 10 player nor the #1 prospect in this draft.

Shai, for example, exceeds those parameters this year and is still only arguable as a backend top 10 NBA player.

Sure, and my point is most players would select a Top 10 player #1 overall and be happy. I think if you told every GM he was guaranteed to average those for his peak, he would be a unanimous #1 overall.

Not when you have a 2 way unicorn who has 25/10/3(blocks) potential and another guy who has 20/10 60 TS% potential and are more likely to reach it without it being a hot take but being #3 on a big board isn't some slight.

I disagree. If you were a time traveler and told every GM what George will become, he would be the #1 pick.

[Saints14]

Jalen Pickett should be considered in the late 1st/early 2nd round range akin to Nembhard and Pritchard

[reanimator]

Sure, and my point is most players would select a Top 10 player #1 overall and be happy. I think if you told every GM he was guaranteed to average those for his peak, he would be a unanimous #1 overall.

Not when you have a 2 way unicorn who has 25/10/3(blocks) potential and another guy who has 20/10 60 TS% potential and are more likely to reach it without it being a hot take but being #3 on a big board isn't some slight.

I disagree. If you were a time traveler and told every GM what George will become, he would be the #1 pick.

Would you choose current Shai (who far exceed the parameters I laid out) over Embiid or prime Cp3?

[Colbinii]

Not when you have a 2 way unicorn who has 25/10/3(blocks) potential and another guy who has 20/10 60 TS% potential and are more likely to reach it without it being a hot take but being #3 on a big board isn't some slight.

I disagree. If you were a time traveler and told every GM what George will become, he would be the #1 pick.

Would you choose current Shai (who far exceed the parameters I laid out) over Embiid or prime Cp3?

No but there is no guarantee Wemby or Scoot will be Embiid or CP3...that is my point. I don't think your cognitive ability can comprehend how valuable a guaranteed Top 10 player in the league is.

[165bows]

I think Wemby is prob overhyped.

[reanimator]

I disagree. If you were a time traveler and told every GM what George will become, he would be the #1 pick.

Would you choose current Shai (who far exceed the parameters I laid out) over Embiid or prime Cp3?

No but there is no guarantee Wemby or Scoot will be Embiid or CP3...that is my point. I don't think your cognitive ability can comprehend how valuable a guaranteed Top 10 player in the league is.

Huh? This is a draft board. Its all guess work with no guarantees which is why this is a hot take thread. Most of these takes will be misses but I've told you how I view Vic and Scoot's optimal outcome so it should've put things into perspective.

[GSWFan1994]

My hot take is that is this was a school class, I'd be reproved.

Apart from Wenby and Scoot, I know nothing about all the other players.

Guess it's time to do my homework.

[Big J]

People will say there should have been even more hype for Wemby coming into the draft.

[Catchall]

-Nick Smith Jr will top out as a 6th man being small, limited as a facilitator, and defender

I thought his role model might be Jordan Clarkson. I don't trust his physical presence or ability to create an advantage enough to play him as a lead guard.