’64 Oscar Robertson vs ’96 Michael Jordan

[Matt15]

Who was the better player?

[70sFan]

Interesting comparison, I'd probably give Jordan the edge but I always struggle to rate peak Oscar as we have very little footage available from his best years (1962-64). It's possible that I underrate him here.

[OhayoKD]

Going to say Jordan. I'm sure there's an era-relative case to be made(worst offense turns to best offense basically instantly!) but Wilt/Russell are enough

[Cavsfansince84]

I'd say close enough to circa 88-93 to still give it to him. Were it 97 MJ then its probably a wash or I'd say Oscar.

[rk2023]

A few pieces to think of as good food for thought regarding impact (major props to squared2020 for taking the time to track and provide us all with new intel )

1996 Jordan:

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As for Oscar:

Linking some of his YoY data from Sansterre:

Here were how the Royals did from 1958 to 1970:

1959: 22 wins, -7.89 SRS, No Playoffs
1960: 21 wins, -5.92 SRS, No Playoffs
** Oscar is drafted **
1961: 34 wins, -3.04 SRS, No Playoffs
1962: 44 wins, +1.28 SRS, Lost Semis
1963: 43 wins, +1.24 SRS, Lost Conf Finals
1964: 56 wins, +4.43 SRS, Lost Conf Finals
1965: 49 wins, +2.04 SRS, Lost Semis
1966: 46 wins, +1.03 SRS, Lost Semis
1967: 39 wins, -0.23 SRS, Lost Semis
1968: 39 wins, -0.64 SRS, No Playoffs
1969: 41 wins, -0.83 SRS, No Playoffs
1970: 36 wins, -2.55 SRS, No Playoffs

Well, if we’re just going by team success (who would do that, right?) it doesn’t look particularly impressive. Sure, they were a 20-win bottom-feeder, and he lifted them up to respectability for several years. But I can’t help but notice not a single Finals appearance, and that’s with 8 and 9 team leagues. There’s a pretty obvious explanation: Oscar wasn’t a winner. Just didn’t have that killer instinct. Didn’t have that Serpent Certainty (err, Mamba Mentality). Didn’t have that swagger. I’m sure he was good and all, but there’s more to the game than counting stats. It’s called counting wins, and by that stat he clearly was good but not thaaaaaat good.

And yet there are weird signs to the contrary.

In Ben Taylor’s WOWYR (of which there are many formulations) Oscar Robertson shows up in the Top Ten of players . . . ever. Those numbers are never perfect, but they suggest an alarming dependence on Oscar. Here are three different instances where he missed times and their effects (courtesy of BackPicks):

1961: Missed 9 games, went from 36 win pace to 9 win pace (-27)
1968: Missed 10 games, went from 46 win pace to 17 win pace (-29)
1970: Missed 12 games, went from 42 win pace to 18 win pace (-24)

Some more box stats crunching from Sansterre himself:

Spoiler:

Now we don’t have VORP in Oscar’s day, so we’re using Win Shares to calculate it (which tends to generate smaller percentages, so Win Share Helio and VORP Helio are not comparable). Here are Oscar’s Helio scores with Cincinnati:

Yr 1: 43.7% (34 wins)
Yr 2: 37.6% (44 wins)
Yr 3: 40.8% (43 wins)
Yr 4: 40.9% (56 wins)
Yr 5: 39.1% (49 wins)
Yr 6: 40.4% (46 wins)
Yr 7: 44.4% (39 wins)
Yr 8: 33.1% (39 wins)
Yr 9: 35.5% (41 wins)
Yr 10: 32.9% (36 wins)

Well, it’s been a while since I did any Win Shares Helio, but 40% is really high from what I remember. Let’s compare Oscar’s numbers to those of another historically under-supported stud:

Yr 2: 31.4% (35 wins)
Yr 3: 33.7% (42 wins)
Yr 4: 26.1% (50 wins)
Yr 5: 35.4% (50 wins)
Yr 6: 29.9% (45 wins)

Huh. LeBron James has fairly high scores, and yet his highest Helio scores are comparable to Oscar’s worst. Of course, James had a tendency to make his teammates look better (Oscar was a distributor as well, but in that era it was less effective). What about another stud with bad support?

Yr 1: 35.4% (38 wins)
Yr 2: Out with Injury
Yr 3: 37.9% (40 wins)
Yr 4: 40.9% (50 wins)
Yr 5: 43.3% (47 wins)
Yr 6: 37.2% (55 wins)

Ahhh. That’s what we’re looking for. If you didn’t guess, those are Michael Jordan’s first six years with the Bulls. And, let’s be honest, they look *really* similar to Oscar’s peak seasons in terms of how good his team was and what share of his team’s success he was credited for.

Overall:
While basketball reference data is imperfect and has some tangible holes in a measuring stick for analysis, it’s really intriguing how Robertson’s ‘64 season yields similar involvement to Jordan’s very well regarded floor raising campaign from 1988.

However, this is 1996. While Jordan (at this point) still is an incredible volume scorer, the gap in playmaking (along with overall efficiency) leads me to believe Robertson is the better offensive player. With that said, I think this was a pretty good defensive year/slight renaissance from Jordan. The Royals were above average this season while still being offensive slanted, so from limited info - it might not be an irrational hypothesis to consider 1964 Oscar a tangible positive but nothing too much to write home about. I think this gap makes it a hard question, where I lean 1996 Jordan at the moment. Excluding duplicates, I think these are both ~ top 15 single season peaks all time. Could change my mind as more information releases

[dygaction]

This is pretty far stretched comparison, but even you put Westbrook and MJ together, Russ will get some love on this board.
Individually: MVP, Finals MVP, All star MVP, 1st team all-nba, 1st all-D, scoring champion
Team: 72win regular season, championship 15-3
96 could be the most balanced year of MJ. Yes, he scored less but just like Jokic this season, less scoring does not mean regression in ability.

[No-more-rings]

Going to say Jordan. I'm sure there's an era-relative case to be made(worst offense turns to best offense basically instantly!) but Wilt/Russell are enough

How is there an “era relative” case for Oscar? Jordan was far and away the best player in that season, and no one was even close. I’m not sure if Oscar even has a top 2 argument.

To be clear, Oscar could be better, but I wouldn’t use era relatively as to why.

[OhayoKD]

Going to say Jordan. I'm sure there's an era-relative case to be made(worst offense turns to best offense basically instantly!) but Wilt/Russell are enough

How is there an “era relative” case for Oscar? Jordan was far and away the best player in that season, and no one was even close. I’m not sure if Oscar even has a top 2 argument.

To be clear, Oscar could be better, but I wouldn’t use era relatively as to why.

thinking era relative value over replacement rather than era relative value over second best player

[70sFan]

This is pretty far stretched comparison,

Why do you think so? The question is about who is a better player, not who had a more accomplished season. What holes in his game Oscar had that you find this comparison "far stretched"?

but even you put Westbrook and MJ together, Russ will get some love on this board.

That's very unnecessary.

Yes, he scored less but just like Jokic this season, less scoring does not mean regression in ability.

I definitely agree that less scoring doesn't mean regression, but do you think that Jordan was on similar level in 1996 to the early 1990s?

[Dutchball97]

Pleasantly surprised to see some positive talk about Jordan after recent weeks. To be honest I think this comparison is pretty close. Both had very strong regular seasons alongside good but not optimal play-off runs. Oscar not having his most efficient outing against the Celtics at their absolute defensive peak (aka the best defensive team to ever exist) is easier to overlook than Jordan having a similar efficiency drop against the Sonics in the finals. Although it has to be said the Sonics were a very strong defensive team in their own right (2nd in 96, right after the Bulls themselves) and were well equipped to handle Jordan considering two of their standout defenders in McMillan and Payton were large guards.

Overall I do think Jordan has a pretty significant edge on defense here, although I could see arguments for Oscar being better or at least comparable on offense. If Oscar had a deeper run in 64or if the Bulls hadn't been as succeaful in 96 it'd probably become easier to argue for Oscar but as it stands I do prefer 96 MJ here.

[eminence]

Pleasantly surprised to see some positive talk about Jordan after recent weeks. To be honest I think this comparison is pretty close. Both had very strong regular seasons alongside good but not optimal play-off runs. Oscar not having his most efficient outing against the Celtics at their absolute defensive peak (aka the best defensive team to ever exist) is easier to overlook than Jordan having a similar efficiency drop against the Sonics in the finals. Although it has to be said the Sonics were a very strong defensive team in their own right (2nd in 96, right after the Bulls themselves) and were well equipped to handle Jordan considering two of their standout defenders in McMillan and Payton were large guards.

Overall I do think Jordan has a pretty significant edge on defense here, although I could see arguments for Oscar being better or at least comparable on offense. If Oscar had a deeper run in 64or if the Bulls hadn't been as succeaful in 96 it'd probably become easier to argue for Oscar but as it stands I do prefer 96 MJ here.

Nate didn’t play much due to (back) injury, it was mostly Payton who had any success on MJ.