Hot Takes – 2023 Draft

[clyde21]

People will say there should have been even more hype for Wemby coming into the draft.

lmao? wtf do you want people to do? throw him a parade already? he's been one of the most hyped prospects ever.

[Big J]

People will say there should have been even more hype for Wemby coming into the draft.

lmao? wtf do you want people to do? throw him a parade already? he's been one of the most hyped prospects ever.

My mom & grandma don't know who he is, but they know who Harry Styles & Prince Harry are. He will transcend just sports. He needs to be on the cover of People Magazine, US weekly, ect, ect.

[clyde21]

People will say there should have been even more hype for Wemby coming into the draft.

lmao? wtf do you want people to do? throw him a parade already? he's been one of the most hyped prospects ever.

My mom & grandma don't know who he is, but they know who Harry Styles & Prince Harry are. He will transcend just sports. He needs to be on the cover of People Magazine, US weekly, ect, ect.

just bc you were late to the party doesnt mean we all have to overcompensate.

[Big J]

lmao? wtf do you want people to do? throw him a parade already? he's been one of the most hyped prospects ever.

My mom & grandma don't know who he is, but they know who Harry Styles & Prince Harry are. He will transcend just sports. He needs to be on the cover of People Magazine, US weekly, ect, ect.

just bc you were late to the party doesnt mean we all have to overcompensate.

You overcompensate for a lot of things, so it should be easy for you.

[clyde21]

My mom & grandma don't know who he is, but they know who Harry Styles & Prince Harry are. He will transcend just sports. He needs to be on the cover of People Magazine, US weekly, ect, ect.

just bc you were late to the party doesnt mean we all have to overcompensate.

You overcompensate for a lot of things, so it should be easy for you.

[BostonCouchGM]

Black and Dick are going to be fine #4 types and are extremely overrated especially on here.

The top 5 players taken will likely be the same top 5 in a redraft five years from now.

Players drafted in the late 1st would go before many of the players taken 6-14 in a redraft.

There will be 6 all-stars at minimum from this draft class

[babyjax13]

If there is a surprise player that slips out of the first round, it is GG Jackson. In his good games, his shooting is unsustainable. Alabama won the game against South Carolina by forcing Jackson to make decisions with the ball down the stretch. He murders their ball movement, he takes tough shots, he has a hideous attitude on the court, either looking disinterested, or angry, sometimes yelling at teammates.

[crows2]

The top 5 players taken will likely be the same top 5 in a redraft five years from now.

Now that’s the hottest of hot takes and extremely unlikely to happen. Surely it’s never happened before?

[The-Power]

The top 5 players taken will likely be the same top 5 in a redraft five years from now.

Now that’s the hottest of hot takes and extremely unlikely to happen. Surely it’s never happened before?

Yeah, that's almost certainly not going to happen.

[The-Power]

Okay, here's a hot take (I think) that I only recently came to believe: Makhi Mitchell has a better chance to stick around NBA teams than his teammate Ricky Council IV. I'm pretty much completely off the Council-train and have grown to appreciate what Makhi can do (but he probably needs to be in the right situation).

[UnbelievablyRAW]

My hot take is Taylor Hendricks should probably go top 10 and is criminally underrated in these mocks. He looks like the realized version of Jonathan Issac while being a far better offensive player. Give him 4 years to get stronger and you get a 23 year old that is J. Grant-like on offense but with Issac tier defense. Dude has multiple 4 block games and is averaging about 2 a game primarily as a help defender.

I don't see superstar potential but he will be a premium 3D guy ala Bridges who teams are currently throwing around 4 first rounders for

[clyde21]

The top 5 players taken will likely be the same top 5 in a redraft five years from now.

Now that’s the hottest of hot takes and extremely unlikely to happen. Surely it’s never happened before?

only I can think of is maybe 2019?

Zion
Ja
Barrett
Hunter
Garland

[baldur]

It's scandalous if Taylor Hendricks and Jordan Hawkins get selected out of the lottery.

[BostonCouchGM]

The top 5 players taken will likely be the same top 5 in a redraft five years from now.

Now that’s the hottest of hot takes and extremely unlikely to happen. Surely it’s never happened before?

only I can think of is maybe 2019?

Zion
Ja
Barrett
Hunter
Garland

I think either one or more of Poole, Keldon Johnson, or Claxton go before Hunter and maybe even RJ.

[Mr Peanut]

Wemby will be great (and perhaps generational) when he plays, but will constantly have injury problems which will limit his overall impact and how far he can take a team.

[Mr Peanut]

1/ Drafting Thompsons and having it work out doesn't make you a master prospect evaluator. It just makes you a lucky gambler akin to buying zero-day options pre-earning calls.

2/ Anthony Black (has chance) to be a more impactful career than Cade Cunningham playing the same point forward role.

3/ Zach Edey will be a high impact basketball player. His skill, mobility and size combination is just damn rare. Sure, he will get destroyed during playoffs with certains schemes like Gobert, Yao have experienced.

4/ Kyle Filipowski is probably being discounted too much for a mobile 7-footer freshman being the first option on dysfunctional team led by a rookie coach. I don't see 14 players better than him and should be lottery talent. (His teammate Dariq might sneak into top 7, which is not that hot of a take).

5/ Brandon Miller is super overrated. He is not this blue chip prospect due to his advanced age. He is still a top 5 pick, but don't tell me he is a tier above the other picks after Wemby.

I get the point you're trying to make, but dude will be 20 when he is drafted . Other players at best will be 19 year olds, which in theory gives them one extra year to develop. But if I'm picking third I'm still taking what looks to be a surefire talent over other guys who look worse but may have that extra year (which doesn't guarantee that they'll reach a level beyond what Miller could).

[baldur]

age obsession is unbelievable here. brandon miller might as well retire already, because he is 20, not 19?

[CptCrunch]

1/ Drafting Thompsons and having it work out doesn't make you a master prospect evaluator. It just makes you a lucky gambler akin to buying zero-day options pre-earning calls.

2/ Anthony Black (has chance) to be a more impactful career than Cade Cunningham playing the same point forward role.

3/ Zach Edey will be a high impact basketball player. His skill, mobility and size combination is just damn rare. Sure, he will get destroyed during playoffs with certains schemes like Gobert, Yao have experienced.

4/ Kyle Filipowski is probably being discounted too much for a mobile 7-footer freshman being the first option on dysfunctional team led by a rookie coach. I don't see 14 players better than him and should be lottery talent. (His teammate Dariq might sneak into top 7, which is not that hot of a take).

5/ Brandon Miller is super overrated. He is not this blue chip prospect due to his advanced age. He is still a top 5 pick, but don't tell me he is a tier above the other picks after Wemby.

I get the point you're trying to make, but dude will be 20 when he is drafted . Other players at best will be 19 year olds, which in theory gives them one extra year to develop. But if I'm picking third I'm still taking what looks to be a surefire talent over other guys who look worse but may have that extra year (which doesn't guarantee that they'll reach a level beyond what Miller could).

You missed the point by posting the message, he is +2 years for his class and is older than the Thompson twins. Most here fail to understand the concept of the developmental curve. In fact, it is by far one of the biggest predictors of aggregate level sucess in any kind of outcome based metric (note the key word aggregate level). It is a force so powerful that most of the projected lotto NBA picks are actually near +0.5/+1 year for their class. If the probability were random in terms of birth month getting in to the NBA (with most schools cutting kids off between August - December), the average college freshman should be February to July 2004 kid depending on their school district, so if we took the median, that should be 18.8 years old right now. If we look at the list of freshman on Tankathon (quick and dirty list), the average age in the lotto (for non-freshman) is (19.1,19.1,20.3,20.1,20.1,19.5,18.9,19.3,18.6,19.1,19.3,19.3,19.3,19.5) -> 19.4. This equates to a being a full half a year older than the average college freshman. Another case of the age-development effect in play.

The point is that, no Brandon Miller will not fail just because he is older than his freshman peer; it is that one has to acknowledge that Miller is suceeding partially due to his age since grade school. 1.5 years older than his peers has given him more play time on the courts, an earlier puberty on average, a more fleshed out physical build.

(Another interesting tidbit is that younger kids are likley to do much worse in school and are likely to be considered slow. It is a open non-secret that many affluent New Yorkers plan pregnancies to ensure that their kids are are the oldest possible for their school year, without holding the their kid back of course. This is how powerful this effect is and how people with how seriously how people with wealth take this). And no, there is absolutely nothing wrong with Miller using any of this to suceed at playing basketball.

https://ny.chalkbeat.org/2020/2/4/21178551/your-child-s-birth-month-matters-nyc-students-born-in-november-and-december-are-classified-with-lear

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitting-in-on-upper-east-side-of-manhattan-means-the-right-pregnancy-the-right-school-the-right-hermes-bag-2015-05-27

[reanimator]

Being dismissive of age when there is data to back up its significance isn't wise. Doesn't mean Miller can't be an outlier or star but it has to be baked into the guesswork. Most people are not leaning solely on that but other factors as well if they aren't as high as others from what I've seen.

I like Miller's growth as of late and I think his floor is high above someone like a Trey Murphy but its red flag when you're told to dismiss red flags. I haven't even seen someone say he isn't a lotto pick and locked-in NBA starter level talent. However, age? doesn't matter. Bad assist to turnover ratio? doesn't matter. Bad PnR handle and isolation percentile? doesn't matter. Loaded team full of ballhandlers, spacers, and rim protectors vs say a prospect on a talent poor team? doesn't matter. Is he the perfect prospect because even Vic has flaws or what does matter?

[The-Power]

Being dismissive of age when there is data to back up its significance isn't wise. Doesn't mean Miller can't be an outlier or star but it has to be baked into the guesswork. Most people are not leaning solely on that but other factors as well if they aren't as high as others from what I've seen.

I mean, let's be clear about Miller: if he was a Sophomore with this kind of season he should still be a top 5 pick. He's old for a Freshman but everyone is aware of that by now and has already considered that in their evaluation.

I like Miller's growth as of late and I think his floor is high above someone like a Trey Murphy but its red flag when you're told to dismiss red flags. I haven't even seen someone say he isn't a lotto pick and locked-in NBA starter level talent. However, age? doesn't matter. Bad assist to turnover ratio? doesn't matter. Bad PnR handle and isolation percentile? doesn't matter. Loaded team full of ballhandlers, spacers, and rim protectors vs say a prospect on a talent poor team? doesn't matter. Is he the perfect prospect because even Vic has flaws or what does matter?

Who told you to dismiss issues? I mean, maybe we can talk about the term ‘red flag’ in this context (I would only use it for very serious issues but that's just my personal choice) but I haven't seen anyone suggest that Miller is a perfect prospect and can't do no wrong. That seems like a very obvious straw man.

People being less or more concerned about certain aspects of his game and evaluating the tape or numbers differently is completely normal and happens with literally every single prospect we talk about. In fact, it is and should be the essence of every discussion on this board.