Hot Takes – 2023 Draft

[reanimator]

Being dismissive of age when there is data to back up its significance isn't wise. Doesn't mean Miller can't be an outlier or star but it has to be baked into the guesswork. Most people are not leaning solely on that but other factors as well if they aren't as high as others from what I've seen.

I mean, let's be clear about Miller: if he was a Sophomore with this kind of season he should still be a top 5 pick. He's old for a Freshman but everyone is aware of that by now and has already considered that in their evaluation.

I like Miller's growth as of late and I think his floor is high above someone like a Trey Murphy but its red flag when you're told to dismiss red flags. I haven't even seen someone say he isn't a lotto pick and locked-in NBA starter level talent. However, age? doesn't matter. Bad assist to turnover ratio? doesn't matter. Bad PnR handle and isolation percentile? doesn't matter. Loaded team full of ballhandlers, spacers, and rim protectors vs say a prospect on a talent poor team? doesn't matter. Is he the perfect prospect because even Vic has flaws or what does matter?

Who told you to dismiss issues? I mean, maybe we can talk about the term ‘red flag’ in this context (I would only use it for very serious issues but that's just my personal choice) but I haven't seen anyone suggest that Miller is a perfect prospect and can't do no wrong. That seems like a very obvious straw man.

People being less or more concerned about certain aspects of his game and evaluating the tape or numbers differently is completely normal and happens with literally every single prospect we talk about. In fact, it is and should be the essence of every discussion on this board.

There are comments like "whats with the age obsession" in a hot take thread no less so if everyone is aware then to your point it should be obvious to those who make such comments that not everyone weighs everything equally.

You're a pretty level-headed poster and defend your positions well, but it happens occasionally where someone says "im concerned about xyz" or "this particular data for xyz does not look good" and they get back nothing more substantial than cherrypicked possessions, outlier examples, or outright dismissal.

And I agree that even as a sophomore he would be a lottery pick and I've reiterated that everyone seems to have a consensus on that and his very high floor, however, when you talk about optimal outcomes then thats where consensus seems to divulge.

[Mr Peanut]

1/ Drafting Thompsons and having it work out doesn't make you a master prospect evaluator. It just makes you a lucky gambler akin to buying zero-day options pre-earning calls.

2/ Anthony Black (has chance) to be a more impactful career than Cade Cunningham playing the same point forward role.

3/ Zach Edey will be a high impact basketball player. His skill, mobility and size combination is just damn rare. Sure, he will get destroyed during playoffs with certains schemes like Gobert, Yao have experienced.

4/ Kyle Filipowski is probably being discounted too much for a mobile 7-footer freshman being the first option on dysfunctional team led by a rookie coach. I don't see 14 players better than him and should be lottery talent. (His teammate Dariq might sneak into top 7, which is not that hot of a take).

5/ Brandon Miller is super overrated. He is not this blue chip prospect due to his advanced age. He is still a top 5 pick, but don't tell me he is a tier above the other picks after Wemby.

I get the point you're trying to make, but dude will be 20 when he is drafted . Other players at best will be 19 year olds, which in theory gives them one extra year to develop. But if I'm picking third I'm still taking what looks to be a surefire talent over other guys who look worse but may have that extra year (which doesn't guarantee that they'll reach a level beyond what Miller could).

You missed the point by posting the message, he is +2 years for his class and is older than the Thompson twins. Most here fail to understand the concept of the developmental curve. In fact, it is by far one of the biggest predictors of aggregate level sucess in any kind of outcome based metric (note the key word aggregate level). It is a force so powerful that most of the projected lotto NBA picks are actually near +0.5/+1 year for their class. If the probability were random in terms of birth month getting in to the NBA (with most schools cutting kids off between August - December), the average college freshman should be February to July 2004 kid depending on their school district, so if we took the median, that should be 18.8 years old right now. If we look at the list of freshman on Tankathon (quick and dirty list), the average age in the lotto (for non-freshman) is (19.1,19.1,20.3,20.1,20.1,19.5,18.9,19.3,18.6,19.1,19.3,19.3,19.3,19.5) -> 19.4. This equates to a being a full half a year older than the average college freshman. Another case of the age-development effect in play.

The point is that, no Brandon Miller will not fail just because he is older than his freshman peer; it is that one has to acknowledge that Miller is suceeding partially due to his age since grade school. 1.5 years older than his peers has given him more play time on the courts, an earlier puberty on average, a more fleshed out physical build.

(Another interesting tidbit is that younger kids are likley to do much worse in school and are likely to be considered slow. It is a open non-secret that many affluent New Yorkers plan pregnancies to ensure that their kids are are the oldest possible for their school year, without holding the their kid back of course. This is how powerful this effect is and how people with how seriously how people with wealth take this). And no, there is absolutely nothing wrong with Miller using any of this to suceed at playing basketball.

https://ny.chalkbeat.org/2020/2/4/21178551/your-child-s-birth-month-matters-nyc-students-born-in-november-and-december-are-classified-with-lear

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitting-in-on-upper-east-side-of-manhattan-means-the-right-pregnancy-the-right-school-the-right-hermes-bag-2015-05-27

I believe I made exactly the point I wanted to make, thanks.

You're stating that he's +2 years for his class, but this is somewhat irrelevant when the guys you're drafting him amongst are closer to one year younger (and a whopping two months younger for the Thompson twins). I was merely pointing out the statement of "due to his advanced age" which comes across as a fairly hyperbolic choice of words when you're comparing a player who will be 20.5y when drafted among the Tankathon lottery players you posted where the median will be 19.7y come June.

And I think most of us posting on a basketball forum have some concept of how player development works. And the commonly held belief that if you're drafted younger you have a player that theoretically has more room to improve and potentially reach a higher peak. But most of us are also aware that you have to possess certain skills to develop in the first place, and a lot of NBA front offices have failed in the past because they fall in love with potential (which is intertwined with a younger draft age) rather than the production of the mildly older and more polished player who is perceived to be the "safe pick". And we can spout off countless examples of the latter commonly ending up having the superior NBA career.

Finally, I'm not sure what relevance the tidbit has. It's trying to equate academics to sports prowess, where the Venn diagram of these may overlap to a degree but is a bit of a stretch to support your stance (not even going to comment on the sources that these studies came from, and the fact they haven't been peer reviewed and are not published in a reputable medical journal). Would be interested to see some data that supports the opinion that a player is more likely to have a successful NBA career though purely on the basis of being a year younger (said somewhat in jest as this doesn't actually exist beyond just quoting specific examples leading to this argument becoming circular).

I guess it's a hot take thread, and you made your take. Will be interesting to revisit in four or so years as all these players approach the end of their rookie contracts.

[reanimator]

Just in this draft, guys like Kobe Bufkin, Jordan Hawkins, Kris Murray, Maxwell Lewis show what a difference a year can make in terms of physical/mental maturation. It won't be a boost for everyone but on average it is and its very likely in a redraft that it'll explain some of the movement of the risers.

[clyde21]

again a year is HUGE in this age bracket, just take a look at Wemby at 17 vs Wemby at 18...people often underestimate how much a year means to players this young and how much they can develop in that time.

so yea, when people say Miller is TWO whole years older than GG, that's what they mean. does it mean GG will be better than Miller in two yeasr? no, but it's just the idea that MIller's had two extra years to develop that always leave question marks and rightfully so.

[CptCrunch]

One year is also the difference between a chicken **** prospect and #2 pick Ja Morant.

[The-Power]

That's all cherry-picked. I've already provided a long and unbiased list of player development of top prospects in the GG Jackson thread and the idea that the leaps are, on average, huge from one season to the next is factually untrue. They happen for some players but it's not the norm at all.

For every one player that improves considerably, there is at least one player who doesn't. If we want to randomly drop names of complete outliers to make a point, let me throw in a name from this year: Tyrese Hunter. Does that now mean that players don't improve from one year to the next? Of course not. It just means we must be careful with generalizations and stop using individual cases as representative.

So yes, players of that age develop but it is very rare that they transform their games. Development is usually mild, non-linear and different for each player.

As for age, I'll once again emphasize that age matters – yes – but so does experience at the level they play. A lot of players will improve from one season to the next not because they turned a year older but because they have played at that level and now have a better idea of what works and what doesn't, what it takes, and how to deal with various situations on and off the court. That's a process every players goes through irrespective of age.

[HiDef]

Just in this draft, guys like Kobe Bufkin, Jordan Hawkins, Kris Murray, Maxwell Lewis show what a difference a year can make in terms of physical/mental maturation. It won't be a boost for everyone but on average it is and its very likely in a redraft that it'll explain some of the movement of the risers.

Paolo and Jabari really hit this home for me.. Paolo looks even more dominant athletically in the league than he did in college. Jabari... not so much

For example if Jarace Walker isn't going strong at the NCAA level.. I'm not drafting that kid at the top. I think he needs freak strength to be anything special, and it doesn't look like he has it. Not spending a top 5 pick on a Precious Achiuwa type who can maybe run a fast break now and then.

[The-Power]

Paolo and Jabari really hit this home for me.. Paolo looks even more dominant athletically in the league than he did in college. Jabari... not so much

For example if Jarace Walker isn't going strong at the NCAA level.. I'm not drafting that kid at the top. I think he needs freak strength to be anything special, and it doesn't look like he has it. Not spending a top 5 pick on a Precious Achiuwa type who can maybe run a fast break now and then.

But as you note, Banchero is an example of someone who dominates more with physicality in the NBA than in the NCAA. There's definitely hope that Jarace has someone in his ear all off-season that he should seek out contact. The issue with him is not his lack of strength but the fact that he doesn't even look to use it to his advantage around the rim. It seems to be an issue of mentality.

As for the Achiuwa comparison: I understand questions about Walker's upside as a potential star but the huge difference between Jarace and Precious is that Jarace is a pretty awesome passer for his position. That's a huge plus for him. He also starts out as a better shooter, so his path to becoming at least a very solid NBA starter is very clear. NBA star? Now that would require him to strongly develop in a lot of areas.

And the other question is: who would you spend a top 5 on in this draft? Because I struggle to see 5 or more players who have a good chance at becoming an NBA star-level player without massive improvement in important aspects of the game.

[EvanZ]

That's all cherry-picked. I've already provided a long and unbiased list of player development of top prospects in the GG Jackson thread and the idea that the leaps are, on average, huge from one season to the next is factually untrue. They happen for some players but it's not the norm at all.

For every one player that improves considerably, there is at least one player who doesn't. If we want to randomly drop names of complete outliers to make a point, let me throw in a name from this year: Tyrese Hunter. Does that now mean that players don't improve from one year to the next? Of course not. It just means we must be careful with generalizations and stop using individual cases as representative.

So yes, players of that age develop but it is very rare that they transform their games. Development is usually mild, non-linear and different for each player.

As for age, I'll once again emphasize that age matters – yes – but so does experience at the level they play. A lot of players will improve from one season to the next not because they turned a year older but because they have played at that level and now have a better idea of what works and what doesn't, what it takes, and how to deal with various situations on and off the court. That's a process every players goes through irrespective of age.

On average players improve quite a lot actually. You can chart something like BPM vs age and it’s pretty linear. Doesn’t mean every player improves obviously and it doesn’t mean the timing is exactly the same for everyone.


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[EvanZ]

Just in this draft, guys like Kobe Bufkin, Jordan Hawkins, Kris Murray, Maxwell Lewis show what a difference a year can make in terms of physical/mental maturation. It won't be a boost for everyone but on average it is and its very likely in a redraft that it'll explain some of the movement of the risers.

Paolo and Jabari really hit this home for me.. Paolo looks even more dominant athletically in the league than he did in college. Jabari... not so much

For example if Jarace Walker isn't going strong at the NCAA level.. I'm not drafting that kid at the top. I think he needs freak strength to be anything special, and it doesn't look like he has it. Not spending a top 5 pick on a Precious Achiuwa type who can maybe run a fast break now and then.

Funny thing about Jarace is nobody seems to even get his main strength which is his vision. He’s got damn near elite vision at his size. It’s everything else I worry about to some extent. Of course I can kind of say the same thing for Black. Elite vision but everything else is a bit questionable at the next level.


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[HiDef]

Paolo and Jabari really hit this home for me.. Paolo looks even more dominant athletically in the league than he did in college. Jabari... not so much

For example if Jarace Walker isn't going strong at the NCAA level.. I'm not drafting that kid at the top. I think he needs freak strength to be anything special, and it doesn't look like he has it. Not spending a top 5 pick on a Precious Achiuwa type who can maybe run a fast break now and then.

But as you note, Banchero is an example of someone who dominates more with physicality in the NBA than in the NCAA. There's definitely hope that Jarace has someone in his ear all off-season that he should seek out contact. The issue with him is not his lack of strength but the fact that he doesn't even look to use it to his advantage around the rim. It seems to be an issue of mentality.

As for the Achiuwa comparison: I understand questions about Walker's upside as a potential star but the huge difference between Jarace and Precious is that Jarace is a pretty awesome passer for his position. That's a huge plus for him. He also starts out as a better shooter, so his path to becoming at least a very solid NBA starter is very clear. NBA star? Now that would require him to strongly develop in a lot of areas.

And the other question is: who would you spend a top 5 on in this draft? Because I struggle to see 5 or more players who have a good chance at becoming an NBA star-level player without massive improvement in important aspects of the game.

Yeah, my main issue with him is that with a 6’8 player who wants to face up, defend and pass, you need to be strong to be useful. Like David West, PJ Tucker, Al Horford strong. The NBA is a physical league and everyone playing the 4 or 5, and half the guys playing the 3 are giants.

I’m pretty high on Taylor Hendricks. You know, a while back, the Ravens drafted (future pro bowler) Brandon Williams. The guy had amazing stats, great senior bowl, crazy strength and agility for a nose tackle. The only thing holding him back was that he played D2. If someone is putting up great stats at low competition, shows off a bit against a team like Houston, not sure what else you can ask for.

Still undecided on Keyonte, Brandon Miller and them. Ausar Thompson looks like he could fill a Lonzo Ball role pretty quickly.

[916fan]

again a year is HUGE in this age bracket, just take a look at Wemby at 17 vs Wemby at 18...people often underestimate how much a year means to players this young and how much they can develop in that time.

so yea, when people say Miller is TWO whole years older than GG, that's what they mean. does it mean GG will be better than Miller in two yeasr? no, but it's just the idea that MIller's had two extra years to develop that always leave question marks and rightfully so.

uhh, so your comparison is to use one of the GOAT prospects to support your argument?

Look back at the debates between the Kevin Knox and the Bridges.

19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 20-year-old Miles Bridges....
19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 22-year-old Mikal Bridges....

the obsession over age and inexperience is how the NBA keeps getting busts over raw talent that has 0 basketball skills

[reanimator]

again a year is HUGE in this age bracket, just take a look at Wemby at 17 vs Wemby at 18...people often underestimate how much a year means to players this young and how much they can develop in that time.

so yea, when people say Miller is TWO whole years older than GG, that's what they mean. does it mean GG will be better than Miller in two yeasr? no, but it's just the idea that MIller's had two extra years to develop that always leave question marks and rightfully so.

uhh, so your comparison is to use one of the GOAT prospects to support your argument?

Look back at the debates between the Kevin Knox and the Bridges.

19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 20-year-old Miles Bridges....
19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 22-year-old Mikal Bridges....

the obsession over age and inexperience is how the NBA keeps getting busts over raw talent that has 0 basketball skills

Who was taken in between the Bridges? Please jog my memory

As good as the upperclassmen in that draft were, they would not crack the top 3 of a redraft. Arguably not even a top 5.

[clyde21]

again a year is HUGE in this age bracket, just take a look at Wemby at 17 vs Wemby at 18...people often underestimate how much a year means to players this young and how much they can develop in that time.

so yea, when people say Miller is TWO whole years older than GG, that's what they mean. does it mean GG will be better than Miller in two yeasr? no, but it's just the idea that MIller's had two extra years to develop that always leave question marks and rightfully so.

uhh, so your comparison is to use one of the GOAT prospects to support your argument?

Look back at the debates between the Kevin Knox and the Bridges.

19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 20-year-old Miles Bridges....
19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 22-year-old Mikal Bridges....

the obsession over age and inexperience is how the NBA keeps getting busts over raw talent that has 0 basketball skills

im confused as to what your point is, or if you even understood the initial argument.

no, no one is saying every 19 year old is a better prospect than every 21 year old. if that's what you got out of it, maybe you should reread the thread.

[EMG518]

Sticking with my hot take that Cam Whitmore will be a bust based off of his draft position. Low end role player.

Slightly better Isaac Okoro.

I am going to add that Jalen Hood-Schifino will be the best guard after Scoot from this draft.

[916fan]

again a year is HUGE in this age bracket, just take a look at Wemby at 17 vs Wemby at 18...people often underestimate how much a year means to players this young and how much they can develop in that time.

so yea, when people say Miller is TWO whole years older than GG, that's what they mean. does it mean GG will be better than Miller in two yeasr? no, but it's just the idea that MIller's had two extra years to develop that always leave question marks and rightfully so.

uhh, so your comparison is to use one of the GOAT prospects to support your argument?

Look back at the debates between the Kevin Knox and the Bridges.

19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 20-year-old Miles Bridges....
19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 22-year-old Mikal Bridges....

the obsession over age and inexperience is how the NBA keeps getting busts over raw talent that has 0 basketball skills

Who was taken in between the Bridges? Please jog my memory

As good as the upperclassmen in that draft were, they would not crack the top 3 of a redraft. Arguably not even a top 5.

You're talking about an elite draft that had Luka, Trae, Ayton, JJJ, SGA, and MPJ. The 2018 draft class was absolutely loaded even with a bust like Marvin Bagley in it. In any other year, Luka, Trae, Ayton, and a healthy MPJ would all be arguable #1 draft picksl

The Bridges definitely would not go top 5. I brought both of the Bridges up because they play the same position as Knox and were drafted after him. What a big yikes!

[916fan]

again a year is HUGE in this age bracket, just take a look at Wemby at 17 vs Wemby at 18...people often underestimate how much a year means to players this young and how much they can develop in that time.

so yea, when people say Miller is TWO whole years older than GG, that's what they mean. does it mean GG will be better than Miller in two yeasr? no, but it's just the idea that MIller's had two extra years to develop that always leave question marks and rightfully so.

uhh, so your comparison is to use one of the GOAT prospects to support your argument?

Look back at the debates between the Kevin Knox and the Bridges.

19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 20-year-old Miles Bridges....
19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 22-year-old Mikal Bridges....

the obsession over age and inexperience is how the NBA keeps getting busts over raw talent that has 0 basketball skills

im confused as to what your point is, or if you even understood the initial argument.

no, no one is saying every 19 year old is a better prospect than every 21 year old. if that's what you got out of it, maybe you should reread the thread.

[The-Power]

The Bridges definitely would not go top 5.

Mikal would go top 5 in a re-draft.

[reanimator]

uhh, so your comparison is to use one of the GOAT prospects to support your argument?

Look back at the debates between the Kevin Knox and the Bridges.

19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 20-year-old Miles Bridges....
19-year-old Kevin Knox vs. 22-year-old Mikal Bridges....

the obsession over age and inexperience is how the NBA keeps getting busts over raw talent that has 0 basketball skills

Who was taken in between the Bridges? Please jog my memory

As good as the upperclassmen in that draft were, they would not crack the top 3 of a redraft. Arguably not even a top 5.

You're talking about an elite draft that had Luka, Trae, Ayton, JJJ, SGA, and MPJ. The 2018 draft class was absolutely loaded even with a bust like Marvin Bagley in it. In any other year, Luka, Trae, Ayton, and a healthy MPJ would all be arguable #1 draft picksl

The Bridges definitely would not go top 5. I brought both of the Bridges up because they play the same position as Knox and were drafted after him. What a big yikes!

I get the point you were making with knox/bridges which I countered with Shai. As stated before, all young prospects don’t have to make the leap. Just a handful and suddenly a redraft looks different.

Luka SGA Tra JJJ then you have maybe 4-5 guys who might have a claim at #5 when its all said and done