The Official Rudy Gobert thread

[Klomp]

I’m curious how people think Gobert will age?

He’s 30 now, and I often hear people say that all big men decline rapidly at this age. Personally, I’m not sure that will be true for Gobert. Players today are taking are playing longer and remaining healthier than ever. Moreover, Gobert looks nothing like most bigs in their 30’s. He is ridiculously fit and seems to take tremendous care of his body. He has little history of injury, and his age 29 season was his best yet, leading the entire NBA in eFG% and rebounding.

Do people believe he will age poorly, or that decline is happening now?

I think he'll age better than haters will give him credit for.

For the next three years, everyone will look at his yearly salary. Will he stay DPOY calibur the entire contract and beyond? Unlikely. However, his role is not one that you should really see crazy diminishing returns. The trick will come in that as the game gets faster, will his positives at the rim outweigh any negatives of having him on the floor. But after this contract, his salary will drop drastically and in theory hopefully the rhetoric around him should hopefully come back to a realistic level.

[Note30]

I’m curious how people think Gobert will age?

He’s 30 now, and I often hear people say that all big men decline rapidly at this age. Personally, I’m not sure that will be true for Gobert. Players today are taking are playing longer and remaining healthier than ever. Moreover, Gobert looks nothing like most bigs in their 30’s. He is ridiculously fit and seems to take tremendous care of his body. He has little history of injury, and his age 29 season was his best yet, leading the entire NBA in eFG% and rebounding.

Do people believe he will age poorly, or that decline is happening now?

I think he'll age better than haters will give him credit for.

For the next three years, everyone will look at his yearly salary. Will he stay DPOY calibur the entire contract and beyond? Unlikely. However, his role is not one that you should really see crazy diminishing returns. The trick will come in that as the game gets faster, will his positives at the rim outweigh any negatives of having him on the floor. But after this contract, his salary will drop drastically and in theory hopefully the rhetoric around him should hopefully come back to a realistic level.

Only if the Wolves are successful in the coming post-season and next season. It's going to be hard to live this down otherwise. The reality is we gambled all flexibility - so despite whatever value he may have, he has to be the answer or we're screwed for the next half decade. It's not even his fault and outside of this forum or if I was at a game I would only cheer but the reality is that he's supposed to be the savior of this franchise given how much we gambled our future.

A lot of people say oh the draft is not super valuable, but the reality is outside of Kyle Anderson we weren't able to sign anyone decent. We also have limited trading capabilities.

So considering Ant, KAT, and McDaniels are all drafted Minnesota talent and we have no 1st round draft picks for a GM who is known for drafting we are kind of in a tough position barring any crazy developments.

So it's not Goberts fault but he has to deliver every year or he will be mercilessly attacked.

[Klomp]

I’m curious how people think Gobert will age?

He’s 30 now, and I often hear people say that all big men decline rapidly at this age. Personally, I’m not sure that will be true for Gobert. Players today are taking are playing longer and remaining healthier than ever. Moreover, Gobert looks nothing like most bigs in their 30’s. He is ridiculously fit and seems to take tremendous care of his body. He has little history of injury, and his age 29 season was his best yet, leading the entire NBA in eFG% and rebounding.

Do people believe he will age poorly, or that decline is happening now?

I think he'll age better than haters will give him credit for.

For the next three years, everyone will look at his yearly salary. Will he stay DPOY calibur the entire contract and beyond? Unlikely. However, his role is not one that you should really see crazy diminishing returns. The trick will come in that as the game gets faster, will his positives at the rim outweigh any negatives of having him on the floor. But after this contract, his salary will drop drastically and in theory hopefully the rhetoric around him should hopefully come back to a realistic level.

Only if the Wolves are successful in the coming post-season and next season. It's going to be hard to live this down otherwise. The reality is we gambled all flexibility - so despite whatever value he may have, he has to be the answer or we're screwed for the next half decade. It's not even his fault and outside of this forum or if I was at a game I would only cheer but the reality is that he's supposed to be the savior of this franchise given how much we gambled our future.

A lot of people say oh the draft is not super valuable, but the reality is outside of Kyle Anderson we weren't able to sign anyone decent. We also have limited trading capabilities.

So considering Ant, KAT, and McDaniels are all drafted Minnesota talent and we have no 1st round draft picks for a GM who is known for drafting we are kind of in a tough position barring any crazy developments.

So it's not Goberts fault but he has to deliver every year or he will be mercilessly attacked.

Misinformation...

1. "Outside of Kyle Anderson...": Kyle was signed with the MLE, a cap exception that will be available for the team to use every season.
2. "No 1st round draft picks": We have draft picks available to us in 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2031, etc.
3. "A GM who is known for drafting"...go back and look at every NBA draft starting with 2013, when Connelly took over in Denver. How many times did Denver select and keep a player with their own pick? It's not many. Connelly has always been wheeling and dealing his draft picks.

This team's success now and for the next 10 years is about the development of Anthony Edwards first and foremost. Putting veterans like Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson, Mike Conley and Austin Rivers around him are a good way to ensure his development while also being a team that will remain in the playoff hunt for the entirety of the decade.

[Note30]

I think he'll age better than haters will give him credit for.

For the next three years, everyone will look at his yearly salary. Will he stay DPOY calibur the entire contract and beyond? Unlikely. However, his role is not one that you should really see crazy diminishing returns. The trick will come in that as the game gets faster, will his positives at the rim outweigh any negatives of having him on the floor. But after this contract, his salary will drop drastically and in theory hopefully the rhetoric around him should hopefully come back to a realistic level.

Only if the Wolves are successful in the coming post-season and next season. It's going to be hard to live this down otherwise. The reality is we gambled all flexibility - so despite whatever value he may have, he has to be the answer or we're screwed for the next half decade. It's not even his fault and outside of this forum or if I was at a game I would only cheer but the reality is that he's supposed to be the savior of this franchise given how much we gambled our future.

A lot of people say oh the draft is not super valuable, but the reality is outside of Kyle Anderson we weren't able to sign anyone decent. We also have limited trading capabilities.

So considering Ant, KAT, and McDaniels are all drafted Minnesota talent and we have no 1st round draft picks for a GM who is known for drafting we are kind of in a tough position barring any crazy developments.

So it's not Goberts fault but he has to deliver every year or he will be mercilessly attacked.

Misinformation...

1. "Outside of Kyle Anderson...": Kyle was signed with the MLE, a cap exception that will be available for the team to use every season.
2. "No 1st round draft picks": We have draft picks available to us in 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2031, etc.
3. "A GM who is known for drafting"...go back and look at every NBA draft starting with 2013, when Connelly took over in Denver. How many times did Denver select and keep a player with their own pick? It's not many. Connelly has always been wheeling and dealing his draft picks.

This team's success now and for the next 10 years is about the development of Anthony Edwards first and foremost. Putting veterans like Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson, Mike Conley and Austin Rivers around him are a good way to ensure his development while also being a team that will remain in the playoff hunt for the entirety of the decade.

1. I said who else did we sign that was decent outside of SloMo. No one. So I'm still right about that. MIN is not a FA destination.
2. By that logic we also have our draft picks from 2032-2100. That's not the point. The point is we can't trade those picks in a package deal. We have to wait because of the stepien rule. Meaning we can't make anymore big splashes without trading a cornerstone.
3. Except that his history with trades has been poor and his history with the draft picks he kept has been excellent. Every major trade he's done has been pretty meh or bad. And almost all of his good players were drafted.

Murray, Harris, Porter, x, Jokic... Almost the entire starting lineup was drafted.

Ant doesn't need three vets in the starting lineup he needs KAT and two way players. We have KAT we just need one other vet. Preferably a two way players in his prime. Not a end of career point guard who's got nothing left in the tank and a one way center.

[life_saver]

Gobert is kinda frustrating to watch...he will have some good games but also games where he doesn't even look like he is trying to block shots. idk whether it's because he is dealing with injury or whether he has just declined but not sure it's a promising sign to see him have games like this when he is already 31

[TimberKat]

Gobert is kinda frustrating to watch...he will have some good games but also games where he doesn't even look like he is trying to block shots. idk whether it's because he is dealing with injury or whether he has just declined but not sure it's a promising sign to see him have games like this when he is already 31

Yes, there are times definitely where he back off or not going aggressively after the shooter. Overall, forget the picks and salary for a min, he played good all year. Not as dominant as we expected but still a good player that take a lot of the punishments off Towns and others. We started to leverage him a little more on offense and I think we could even do more. Part of the problem too is his mistakes are amplified due to expectations. As an example, did anyone care about Ant's 8 turnovers? We noticed more about the 5 shots Gobert should have blocked or the 3 turnovers.

[Note30]

https://dunkingwithwolves.com/2023/04/19/poll-shows-hated-rudy-gobert-nba-players/

[urinesane]

OK, so I had a thought.

Nobody is getting anywhere arguing about the trade. The Wolves obviously over spent for Gobert, there is no arguing against that.

What I want to ask, is what level of success makes it a trade that was worth doing? Even if it was an overpay (which it was), what is the metric of success that would make people not believe it was the worst thing ever and Tim Connely should go to jail?

Is it multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?
Something else?

I am not saying any of this WILL happen, but IF one of the above happens, at what point does the trade become worth it to this franchise?

I would honestly take multiple 2nd round appearances + a WCF appearance (or anything above obviously) as a win for the Wolves in this trade. After years of lottery picks leading to nothing but losing or at it's best mediocrity, making the WCF for the 2nd time in franchise history would be a pretty big improvement.

If you say that nothing could make this trade worth it, then I am not really interested in your reply, because you've obviously made up your mind to the point that you'd somehow say winning an NBA Championship isn't enough to trade some veteran players, a really good defender, a solid rookie center, and some sh*tty draft picks (which is what they would be if they had that success).

Again, let's not argue about IF this sh*t will happen. I see nothing but long diaries about how horrible the trade was in every comment section of everything Wolves related, I get it. What I AM interested in is what people think the line is where this trade stops being horrible and ends up actually being worth it. There HAS to be a line right?

What you do you think it is?

Multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?

[Magoose]

What you do you think it is?

Multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

[urinesane]

What you do you think it is?

Multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

Interesting, so you're saying that with those 5 FRP you'd expect us to win a championship?

[Klomp]

What you do you think it is?

Multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

I totally understand why the "championship or bust" belief exits, but it's important to frame the discussion around the fact that none of the results in urinesane's post have happened in franchise history.

[Klomp]

What you do you think it is?

Multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

I totally understand why the "championship or bust" belief exits, but it's important to frame the discussion around the fact that none of the results in urinesane's post have happened in franchise history. Is it really fair to judge a trade on whether or not the franchise reaches a pinnacle it has never reached before?

[urinesane]

Made a poll for those interested!
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=2287403

[urinesane]

What you do you think it is?

Multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

I totally understand why the "championship or bust" belief exits, but it's important to frame the discussion around the fact that none of the results in urinesane's post have happened in franchise history. Is it really fair to judge a trade on whether or not the franchise reaches a pinnacle it has never reached before?

A lot of people have gone from getting Alpo to expecting filet mignon every night from this franchise. They're only hurting themselves

[Magoose]

What you do you think it is?

Multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

Interesting, so you're saying that with those 5 FRP you'd expect us to win a championship?

No, in fact I stated the opposite. I don't expect us to win a championship. What I would expect though is that you only spend that amount for a championship level player that doesn't play the same position as your current star player and that instantly puts you in the premier spot to win it all. Gobert is clearly not that player.

[urinesane]

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

Interesting, so you're saying that with those 5 FRP you'd expect us to win a championship?

No, in fact I stated the opposite. I don't expect us to win a championship. What I would expect though is that you only spend that amount for a championship level player that doesn't play the same position as your current star player and that instantly puts you in the premier spot to win it all. Gobert is clearly not that player.

Not talking about what is likely, but you just said that if you spend 5 FRP plus for a player that you better win it all.

Though you are admitting that with those 5 FRP plus you wouldn't expect a championship?

How does that math work?

[Magoose]

What you do you think it is?

Multiple 2nd round appearances?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + WCF appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship appearance?
Multiple 2nd round appearances + NBA Championship win?

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

I totally understand why the "championship or bust" belief exits, but it's important to frame the discussion around the fact that none of the results in urinesane's post have happened in franchise history. Is it really fair to judge a trade on whether or not the franchise reaches a pinnacle it has never reached before?

I get what you're saying but imho that shouldn't matter at all.

It's moves like this one that have prevented this franchise from being successful. The Joe Smith deal, the trade for Jimmy Butler, the trade for DLo. Horrible move after horrible move.

This lack of consistent and patient build strategy execution is what constantly sets this franchise back and the reason why we are even having that "definition of success" discussion right now. Just my 2 cents.

[Magoose]

Interesting, so you're saying that with those 5 FRP you'd expect us to win a championship?

No, in fact I stated the opposite. I don't expect us to win a championship. What I would expect though is that you only spend that amount for a championship level player that doesn't play the same position as your current star player and that instantly puts you in the premier spot to win it all. Gobert is clearly not that player.

Not talking about what is likely, but you just said that if you spend 5 FRP plus for a player that you better win it all.

Though you are admitting that with those 5 FRP plus you wouldn't expect a championship?

How does that math work?

Expect means return to justify the invest. I'm not expecting it to happen though. So the math is: You spend a lot, you get a lot back. But sounds like some people are happy with We spend a lot and get a little back. Just agree to disagree here.

[urinesane]

This question might deserve its own thread/poll. To me, if you spend 5! FRP plus for a player you better win it all at least once. Not saying that I think it's likely to happen which is why I would have never ever made that trade in the first place. But that's just that clueless little me speaking

I totally understand why the "championship or bust" belief exits, but it's important to frame the discussion around the fact that none of the results in urinesane's post have happened in franchise history. Is it really fair to judge a trade on whether or not the franchise reaches a pinnacle it has never reached before?

I get what you're saying but imho that shouldn't matter at all.

It's moves like this one that have prevented this franchise from being successful. The Joe Smith deal, the trade for Jimmy Butler, the trade for DLo. Horrible move after horrible move.

This lack of consistent and patient build strategy execution is what constantly sets this franchise back and the reason why we are even having that "definition of success" discussion right now. Just my 2 cents.

The Joe Smith fiasco can't be weighed the same way as actual trades. When we made those trades for Butler/DLo, they were still assets that we were gaining (the value of those can be argued and definitely changed over time), but the Joe Smith thing cost us picks without any assets in return (and was kind of an insane penalty as well).

Same with Gobert. Even though they overpaid for him and he is not worth 5 FRP plus, that doesn't mean we lost all of that and Gobert has no value as an asset. One of the values of Gobert that gets overlooked by the angry mob is the fact that he raises the defensive level enough that outside of major injuries, this team should win enough in the regular season to get playoff experience for our young guys. That has value as far as development and increased value of the younger players (over them losing every year and getting lottery tickets for losing).

The net value of Gobert right now is probably more like -2-3FRP outside of the lottery. The reason being that we could still probably get 1-2 FRP + a decent player for him if they were to move on from him.

[Magoose]

I totally understand why the "championship or bust" belief exits, but it's important to frame the discussion around the fact that none of the results in urinesane's post have happened in franchise history. Is it really fair to judge a trade on whether or not the franchise reaches a pinnacle it has never reached before?

I get what you're saying but imho that shouldn't matter at all.

It's moves like this one that have prevented this franchise from being successful. The Joe Smith deal, the trade for Jimmy Butler, the trade for DLo. Horrible move after horrible move.

This lack of consistent and patient build strategy execution is what constantly sets this franchise back and the reason why we are even having that "definition of success" discussion right now. Just my 2 cents.

The Joe Smith fiasco can't be weighed the same way as actual trades. When we made those trades for Butler/DLo, they were still assets that we were gaining (the value of those can be argued and definitely changed over time), but the Joe Smith thing cost us picks without any assets in return (and was kind of an insane penalty as well).

Same with Gobert. Even though they overpaid for him and he is not worth 5 FRP plus, that doesn't mean we lost all of that and Gobert has no value as an asset. One of the values of Gobert that gets overlooked by the angry mob is the fact that he raises the defensive level enough that outside of major injuries, this team should win enough in the regular season to get playoff experience for our young guys. That has value as far as development and increased value of the younger players (over them losing every year and getting lottery tickets for losing).

The net value of Gobert right now is probably more like -2-3FRP outside of the lottery. The reason being that we could still probably get 1-2 FRP + a decent player for him if they were to move on from him.

We lost basically 3 FRP of value in that trade, 2 of which came instantly due to overpaying. So that value is lost unless Gobert can magically recoup his value, which his very unlikely. So I think the Joe Smith comparison is kind of justified.

Also while Gobert might help on the defensive end he did not move the needle enough to put us in contention. To me that is not enough to justify the investment, yet. I would happily trade him for 2 or 3 UFRP to limit the damage and allow us to use our little amount of assets more wisely to build a team around ANT and Jaden.