Dalek wrote:Yallbecrazy wrote:https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/08/2023-draft-mid-season-board/
Bit of a contrarian take here,I've posted some of his stuff before and the guy who wrote it is pretty anti social so don't go reading into his non basketball posts, but he is a stats nerd who also likes to watch film and compare archetypes of players to other NBA guys and then look at their stats in college as a comparison. I love reading his scouting takes (his other stuff is fairly painful) and his big boards tend to be significantly better at predicting NBA success than the Ford's, ESPN, NBA draftnet, etc. which all tend to regurgitate each other.
This was posted several weeks ago, but it gives a good insight into certain prospects and why to be higher on them or lower.
Things I don't understand, he spends the whole time crapping on Nick Smith in his write up, and nearly his whole write up praising Brandin Podziemski, yet puts Smith one spot above Brandin. There's a few others where I don't understand the ranking vs writing.
I'm quite a bit lower on Kyle F. and Cason Wallace, while much higher on Brandin.
He actually liked Podz more than Jalen Williams. At least he tweeted that recently. Man also has ideas for Toronto with Cason being his target for us:
I just take it all with a grain of salt because he is narrow focused. He has labelled not one but both Thompson twins as "do not draft". The logic is pretty flawed because they haven't tested themselves against true competition.
I wrote about the Thompson Twins and how their top 4 hype is massively unjustified given their low tier competition. I simply would not draft them because it is anti-meritocracy to take 20 year olds playing high school competition over guys who are actually testing themselves against their peers. There is likely a certain point in the draft where it is a reasonable value proposition to take them, but that point is almost certainly going to be after their actual selections since the market seems to massively overvalue them. So the efficient thing to do is to pass and draft somebody who actually has evidence of competent play against their peers.
He is almost strictly a college bball guy and loves seeing a track record. He rarely dicusses int guys because he has no stats to riff of of.
I think for Smith Jr., Dean looking at 9 games of film, a couple injuries and writing the prospect off as not really worth a lotto pick. He said he had bad high school stats yet, Smith Jr. was Player of the Year (2021 and 2022) and averaged 26.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists. Top five consensus player yet he won't crack lotto.
He wrote a long post about the Thompson twins here:
https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/02/how-good-are-the-thompson-twins/I am inclined to agree with it, if you look back at most top high school recruits ranked in the 3-12 range and see where they are in the NBA 6 years later...most aren't. 80-90% of top high school recruits don't end being good NBA players depending on the year. Right there there's reason to not pick them in the lottery. Also, they can't shoot and in his long write up he wrote they aren't doing that well statistically relative to other top recruits who have played against some of their competition despite being much younger than the twins.
They are a mystery box, but I would put the odds of them being anywhere on a NBA roster in 6 years at under 25%.
As for Nick Smith, his stats are poor in college so he was a top high school recruit who in a small sample size is showing to be more likely than the average top HS recruit to be a bust.
He does do a fair amount of intl scouting, but only on guys in the top Euro leagues as it is easier to compare. Also, when Euros are drafted who aren't playing in those leagues they bust almost always so that's not really a flaw.
He did have Sengun fairly high two years ago and had Jokic I think in the top 15 in his draft year.
He also at one point had Doncic as the best prospect ever, even ahead of Lebron if you looked at them pre-draft which makes sense. I feel like Lebron hit his 99th percentile outcome and Luka has not because his shooting hasn't really improved enough.
