Three year peak, Embiid vs. KG

[dygaction]

Embiid has had two-year in a row #2 finish in MVP votings, and likely be #2 this year.
Use KG's 2003-2005, he was #2, #1, and #11 in MVP votings.
KG is a better defender and Embiid is better offensively. The gaps on both sides are quite obvious unless you want to argue otherwise. Who do you get?

[70sFan]

Garnett for me.

[Jaivl]

Embiid is sooo detrimental to his teams' offensive rebounding (like, I probably dock him 0.5 points of value for that alone) that I'm not sure he's that much better offensively, despite being a wildly better scorer.

I have KG easily ahead.

(Jokic, on the other hand...)

[rk2023]

Seriously?

[dygaction]

Embiid is sooo detrimental to his teams' offensive rebounding (like, I probably dock him 0.5 points of value for that alone) that I'm not sure he's that much better offensively, despite being a wildly better scorer.

I have KG easily ahead.

(Jokic, on the other hand...)

Care to explain what that means?

[Colbinii]

"The Gaps are obvious unless they aren't" is a terrific sentence.

[Jaivl]

Embiid is sooo detrimental to his teams' offensive rebounding (like, I probably dock him 0.5 points of value for that alone) that I'm not sure he's that much better offensively, despite being a wildly better scorer.

I have KG easily ahead.

(Jokic, on the other hand...)

Care to explain what that means?

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

[dygaction]

Embiid is sooo detrimental to his teams' offensive rebounding (like, I probably dock him 0.5 points of value for that alone) that I'm not sure he's that much better offensively, despite being a wildly better scorer.

I have KG easily ahead.

(Jokic, on the other hand...)

Care to explain what that means?

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

Interesting, do you have KG's for comparison? Wondering how much is coming from them being Bigs shooting away from the basket.

Also wondering how much goes to Embiid being the main scorer, either sinking it or going to the free-throw line, or purely because he would be on the floor a big part of the time.
he was on the floor

[70sFan]

Care to explain what that means?

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

Interesting, do you have KG's for comparison? Wondering how much is coming from them being Bigs shooting away from the basket.

Also wondering how much goes to Embiid being the main scorer, either sinking it or going to the free-throw line, or purely because he would be on the floor a big part of the time.
he was on the floor

Garnett on court -> Garnett off court
2003: 28.9% -> 24.3% (League average: 28.5%)
2004: 26.8% -> 26.2% (League average: 28.6%)
2005: 28.1% -> 30.6% (League average: 28.7%)

Garnett looks considerably better here.

[Jaivl]

Care to explain what that means?

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

Interesting, do you have KG's for comparison? Wondering how much is coming from them being Bigs shooting away from the basket.

Also wondering how much goes to Embiid being the main scorer, either sinking it or going to the free-throw line, or purely because he would be on the floor a big part of the time.
he was on the floor

Last time I checked Embiid was an outlier among elite big men. There were a few negative seasons such as 02 Duncan but there doesn't seem to be a consistent trend (and his ON value is much higher relative to the league, his replacements much better, and the percentual change was smaller).

Garnett
2002: 32.0% -> 28.8%
2003: 28.9% -> 24.3%
2004: 26.8% -> 26.2%
2005: 28.1% -> 30.6%
2006: 24.7% -> 26.4%

[dygaction]

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

Interesting, do you have KG's for comparison? Wondering how much is coming from them being Bigs shooting away from the basket.

Also wondering how much goes to Embiid being the main scorer, either sinking it or going to the free-throw line, or purely because he would be on the floor a big part of the time.
he was on the floor

Last time I checked Embiid was an outlier among elite big men. There were a few negative seasons such as 02 Duncan but there doesn't seem to be a consistent trend (and his ON value is much higher relative to the league, his replacements much better, and the percentual change was smaller).

Garnett
2002: 32.0% -> 28.8%
2003: 28.9% -> 24.3%
2004: 26.8% -> 26.2%
2005: 28.1% -> 30.6%
2006: 24.7% -> 26.4%

OK, I can picture the differences - KG diving for the missed boards but Embiid either on the ground or complaining to the officials.

[eminence]

I can kinda see it on a per minute discussion, but the load difference is so extreme (KG will have played roughly 2x as many minutes over those periods), I just don’t see it as a serious comparison.

And I don’t think Embiid is on pace for a 2nd place finish this season.

[dygaction]

"The Gaps are obvious unless they aren't" is a terrific sentence.

Sure, a few people may want to argue Embiid also DPOY level but even DPOY level has different levels; some may want to argue KG's offense is close but the big gap in volume and efficiency cannot be ignored

[IdolW0rm]

Off-topic, but can someone with better understanding of the math behind it explain why KG's peak is rated so low on a stat like EPM that has a strong relation with RAPM (which sees KG as a GOAT contender)?

[Peregrine01]

Embiid is sooo detrimental to his teams' offensive rebounding (like, I probably dock him 0.5 points of value for that alone) that I'm not sure he's that much better offensively, despite being a wildly better scorer.

I have KG easily ahead.

(Jokic, on the other hand...)

Care to explain what that means?

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

Interesting. Are there stats showing Philly’s transition defense given all this flopping that doesn’t get called? I recall discussion about them being one of the worst teams at getting back but haven’t seen any data to verify.


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[magicman1978]

The amount of games/minutes played is a clear determining factor for me.

Embiid has played 55% of his team's minutes over the last 3 years
Garnett played 83% of his team's minutes from 2003-2005

It makes any further analysis pointless if the players are somewhat comparable otherwise.

[trex_8063]

I can kinda see it on a per minute discussion, but the load difference is so extreme (KG will have played roughly 2x as many minutes over those periods), I just don’t see it as a serious comparison.

This is kinda how I felt about it. I could maybe see the case on a per-minute basis (even there I still think it's Garnett, at least in rs; maybe a wash in ps).

But from '03-'05 Garnett was tied for 8th, 11th, and 21st [respectively] in the league in mpg. Embiid has yet to appear in the top 25.
Additionally, Garnett missed ZERO games in that span (rs and playoffs).
Embiid '21-present has missed 48 rs games and 3 ps games [current season still unfinished].

So even if I thought it close, the difference in playing time (which accounts to nearly ONE FULL SEASON [in a span of just three years]) would clearly push me to Garnett.

And I don’t think Embiid is on pace for a 2nd place finish this season.

You don't think? Who you got? Giannis? Tatum? Doncic?

I think it should be Embiid, at any rate. Not that they haven't got it wrong many times in the past.

[eminence]

I can kinda see it on a per minute discussion, but the load difference is so extreme (KG will have played roughly 2x as many minutes over those periods), I just don’t see it as a serious comparison.

This is kinda how I felt about it. I could maybe see the case on a per-minute basis (even there I still think it's Garnett, at least in rs; maybe a wash in ps).

But from '03-'05 Garnett was tied for 8th, 11th, and 21st [respectively] in the league in mpg. Embiid has yet to appear in the top 25.
Additionally, Garnett missed ZERO games in that span (rs and playoffs).
Embiid '21-present has missed 48 rs games and 3 ps games [current season still unfinished].

So even if I thought it close, the difference in playing time (which accounts to nearly ONE FULL SEASON [in a span of just three years]) would clearly push me to Garnett.

And I don’t think Embiid is on pace for a 2nd place finish this season.

You don't think? Who you got? Giannis? Tatum? Doncic?

I think it should be Embiid, at any rate. Not that they haven't got it wrong many times in the past.

It looks like Jokic/Giannis for 1/2 to me right now.

[dygaction]

I can kinda see it on a per minute discussion, but the load difference is so extreme (KG will have played roughly 2x as many minutes over those periods), I just don’t see it as a serious comparison.

This is kinda how I felt about it. I could maybe see the case on a per-minute basis (even there I still think it's Garnett, at least in rs; maybe a wash in ps).

But from '03-'05 Garnett was tied for 8th, 11th, and 21st [respectively] in the league in mpg. Embiid has yet to appear in the top 25.
Additionally, Garnett missed ZERO games in that span (rs and playoffs).
Embiid '21-present has missed 48 rs games and 3 ps games [current season still unfinished].

So even if I thought it close, the difference in playing time (which accounts to nearly ONE FULL SEASON [in a span of just three years]) would clearly push me to Garnett.

And I don’t think Embiid is on pace for a 2nd place finish this season.

You don't think? Who you got? Giannis? Tatum? Doncic?

I think it should be Embiid, at any rate. Not that they haven't got it wrong many times in the past.

It looks like Jokic/Giannis for 1/2 to me right now.

Embiid appears to be media favorite right now

[MyUniBroDavis]

This is kinda how I felt about it. I could maybe see the case on a per-minute basis (even there I still think it's Garnett, at least in rs; maybe a wash in ps).

But from '03-'05 Garnett was tied for 8th, 11th, and 21st [respectively] in the league in mpg. Embiid has yet to appear in the top 25.
Additionally, Garnett missed ZERO games in that span (rs and playoffs).
Embiid '21-present has missed 48 rs games and 3 ps games [current season still unfinished].

So even if I thought it close, the difference in playing time (which accounts to nearly ONE FULL SEASON [in a span of just three years]) would clearly push me to Garnett.



You don't think? Who you got? Giannis? Tatum? Doncic?

I think it should be Embiid, at any rate. Not that they haven't got it wrong many times in the past.

It looks like Jokic/Giannis for 1/2 to me right now.

Embiid appears to be media favorite right now

Bro has gone super saiyan since he posted that tho lol