It's good that there's now a discussion about Scoot even though the quality of the discussion isn't great because most just seem to want to ‘win’ the argument instead of trying to understand the situation better. That's a pity.
JMAC3 wrote:Here are all the guys that played in the gleague predraft.
2022
Dyson Daniels averaged 12 ppg, went 8th, averaging 4.4 ppg
Beuchamp averaged 15 ppg, went 24th, averaging 5.5 ppg
Hardy averaged 19 ppg, went 37th, averaging 6.6 ppg
Michael Foster averaged 15 ppg, went undrafted, not in the NBA
2021
Jalen Green - averaged 18 ppg, went 3rd, now averaging 21.7 ppg
Jonathan Kuminga averaged 16 ppg, went 7th, now averaging 9 ppg
Isiah Todd averaged 12 ppg, went 31st, now averaging 1.5 ppg
Daishen Nix averaged 9 ppg, went undrafted, now averaging 4 ppg
This kind of comparison if flawed because it doesn't account for role. Naturally, the vast majority of Rookies – especially those not drafted to teams that simply suck – are going to play limited minutes and have different roles. You could make the same list for college players. It makes more sense to compare Scoot to the others first, and then consider how the others are doing in the NBA from a perspectives beyond raw numbers (which don't mean all that much for players this early into their careers with very different kinds of roles).
G-League Ignite Players (currently in the NBA), Per 100 Possessions:
Henderson: 29/8/11/2/1 with 5 TO on 50% eFG (57% TS) (RS + SC, 21 GP)
J. Green: 26/6/4/2/0 with 4 TO on 54% eFG (61% TS) (RS + SC, 15 GP)
Kuminga: 23/10/4/1/1 with 4 TO on 43% eFG (50% TS) (RS + SC, 13 GP)
Daniels: 17/9/7/3/1 with 4 TO on 50% eFG (54% TS) (RS + SC, 14 GP)
Beauchamp: 19/9/3/2/1 with 3 TO on 60% eFG (64% TS) (RS + SC, 12 GP)
Hardy: 26/7/5/2/1 with 5 TO on 40% eFG (48% TS) (RS + SC, 12 GP)
Nix: 15/9/9/2/0 with 5 TO on 41% eFG (55% TS) (RS + SC, 15 GP)
(Note: I'm not sure if the official website calculates TS% correctly since the new FT rule)
Scoot's numbers are better than anyone's. The only one who's even arguable is J. Green, the #2 pick, who was more efficient on comparable volume but not even close to the same tier as a playmaker. Beauchamp also had an excellent season with the Ignite but obviously filled a very different role and he was also much older. So it's fair to say that Scoot is having the best season of any G-League Ignite prospect and it's arguably not even that close. Now let's look at how the players did in their Rookie season.
Former G-League Players in the Rookie Season, Per 100.
J. Green: 26/5/4/1/0 with 3 TO on 51% eFG (55% TS)
Kuminga: 27/10/3/1/1 with 3 TO on 57% eFG (60% TS)
Daniels: 11/9/6/2/1 with 3 TO on 51% eFG (53% TS)
Beauchamp: 18/8/2/2/0 with 3 TO on 49% eFG (51% TS)
Hardy: 28/6/4/1/0 with 4 TO on 50% eFG (56% TS)
Nix: 14/6/7/3/0 with 5 TO on 46% eFG (48% TS)
J. Green has become less efficient but posts overall the same numbers. Kuminga has actually increased his efficiency considerably while putting up roughly the same numbers (even higher scoring volume). Daniels has seen his scoring drop considerably on roughly the same efficiency while the other categories remained similar. Beauchamp puts up similar numbers but on much worse efficiency in the NBA. Hardy puts up comparable numbers but actually increased his efficiency considerably. Nix puts up worse numbers across the board.
So what we can see is that while there is variation across players, most G-League players actually put up similar numbers in the NBA (they just get less playing time, hence the raw numbers look different) and the efficiency is comparable on average but fluctuates for individual players. Hence, it's not far-fetched to expect Scoot to put up 28/8/10 per 100 possessions in the NBA. As far as efficiency is concerned, we don't know whether he'll be more like Green and Nix (efficiency drops) or more like Kuminga and Hardy (efficiency increases) in his Rookie season. Considering that Kuminga and Hardy were pretty lazy chuckers in the G-League and Scoot is not and also starts from a higher efficiency baseline, odds are that he's not going to see such a large bump in efficiency. Perhaps he maintains his current efficiency, or perhaps he sees a bit of a drop – we'll have to wait and see for that. But even if he starts out relatively inefficient compared to league average, that's not a reason to worry as efficiency usually increases for the first couple NBA years for on-ball creators in particular. Now let's also look at how some of the former Ignite players have fared in the G-League with their NBA affiliates.
Former G-League Ignite Players with their NBA Team Affiliates:
Kuminga (2021-22): 24/10/5/2/1 with 6 TO on 40% eFG (46% TS) (7 GP)
Hardy (2022-23): 41/6/6/1/1 with 5 TO on 67% eFG (77% TS) (11 GP)
Nix (2021-22): 25/8/9/3/1 with 5 TO on 50% eFG (55% TS) (32 GP)
So, Kuminga just didn't care (I watched the games) and looked even worse in these games than before the draft (and much worse than he looked in the NBA, too). Hardy has just had a ridiculous stretch that is not even comparable to his Ignite season. Nix also looked much better with the other G-League team. Perhaps it's a matter of individual development, or perhaps it's being a year older and more experienced that helps the players. Or, perhaps, it's easier for them to put up good numbers on the NBA affiliates because the teammates are just much better on average.
The overall takeaway is, in my opinion, that we shouldn't be worried about Scoot's production. It doesn't look generational but it clearly stands out among Ignite prospects, and thus far raw production seems to translate pretty well on average for Ignite prospects to the NBA (limited sample, of course) and that would make Scoot a very strong prospect even when he starts out with below average efficiency.
That being said, I also believe that the idea of Scoot being the no-questions-asked consensus 2nd pick had taken too much of a hold. I had this opinion until recently, too. I think it's understandable considering that he had a head-start over other prospects given what he had already shown last season, and then he not only had a strong start to this season but also flashed absolute superstar potential in one of the most important match-ups of draft prospects we have ever seen when he played Victor's team. But we shouldn't be dogmatic about where we rank him, and we should acknowledge the concerns that exist (size, shooting, shot profile, defense, and whether or not he is a first-tier athlete or rather in the second tier (which obviously makes a difference for how to project him)). I have pushed Miller ahead of him but I'm not ready (yet) to do the same for any other prospect, who all have concerns and limitations in their own right.
So, I encourage the discussion; but let's at least try to make it constructive, and see it as an opportunity to learn about Scoot and other G-League prospects rather than just wanting to ‘win’ the argument and as a consequence only looking for reasons to support one's own preconceptions instead of being open to all reasonable arguments. We can highlight his flaws without resorting to flawed arguments and comparisons, and we can make his case as an elite prospect without disregarding the concerns or using hyperbole.
