NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (pt 3)

[AleksandarN]

This is easily explained by not only Nuggets bench is terrible but also to the way Nuggets are one of the few if not the only team that subs all 5 of their players with bench which highly inflates their on off and general +- numbers.

A better analysis would be to include career numbers to numbers playing with Jokic. There is reasons why players are having career years playing with jokic.

Sounds fair, its winning them games and this line shifting system isnt a first time they use.

Al im saying it inflates the on off numbers hence why i scream context ever since damn i joined this board.

I have been one of the most adamant " hater" of the on off stat for anyone.

On and off stats is noisy. So context and other useful metrics are needed when you are using them

[ReddoverKobe]

I don't think people actually hate Jokic, I think people hate that for some reason the unwritten rules about MVP don't apply to him. Team record did not matter last year when it has in the past. Guys have had monster years, Jordan included in this and voter fatigue stopped them from getting three in a row. The defensive part of this as well, not to mention the post season stuff, which people say does not matter but we know it does.

[MarcusBrody]

I don't think people actually hate Jokic, I think people hate that for some reason the unwritten rules about MVP don't apply to him. Team record did not matter last year when it has in the past. Guys have had monster years, Jordan included in this and voter fatigue stopped them from getting three in a row. The defensive part of this as well, not to mention the post season stuff, which people say does not matter but we know it does.

Who would you have voted for last year?

[greekbuck34]

Jokic plays with the best possible Nuggets lineups possible each night. 4 of Gordon, Murray, MPJ, KCP and Brown.
When he rests a bunch of g-league players come from the bench for a few minutes. On top of this trash lineup sometimes Malone puts either Murray, MPJ or Brown(but never Gordon) in an attempt to carry them but since it's almost impossible most of the time their overall on and off numbers take a hit. Once Jokic is rested he comes back with Gordon other rested starters.
It works for Malone and the Nuggets so kudos to them.

The Bucks and coach Bud play more....random. Giannis takes a bunch of players for +5 minutes each half and tries to hold a lead by playing small ball center with Jrue, Middleton and Lopez all resting at the bench. Basically Giannis and 4 role playing shooters. Once Giannis has to sit and take a breath a great rested lineup with Jrue, Middleton and Lopez comes back in the game ready to takeover and it worked almost everytime in our winning streak especially when Middleton was available. It becomes even easier for them because the opponents best defenders like Bam, Claxton etc match up Giannis's minutes so when Giannis sits down, they follow him so the job of Jrue, Middleton and Lopez becomes even easier in a way.
Our on-off numbers are a mess but in terms of winning it works equally or even better than Malone's way so kudos to Bud too.

All I'm saying is you could try the same way too. Play for 10-15 minutes Jokic with Jeff Green, Brown/Braun, Cancar and Reggie Jackson and when Jokic is resting you could play a lineup with Murray/MPJ/KCP/Gordon/Bryant.
This way your bench won't completely be destroyed since they will have MVP Jokic and your non Jokic lineups will more than hold their own since they will have a bunch of borderline all star and other quality players in them.
Your on/off numbers will be a mess but in terms of pure winning you will be the same if not better.

[Mickey8]

If you put 4 chairs to play alongside Jokic he would make them work . He had exactly that last season and they were sixth place in the West. Giannis wouldn't made it to the post season with the roster like that. And as we seen many times this season Bucks have deep team, even though their winning is questionable since they faced lots of teams without their best players not available.

[ReddoverKobe]

If you put 4 chairs to play alongside Jokic he would make them work . He had exactly that last season and they were sixth place in the West. Giannis wouldn't made it to the post season with the roster like that. And as we seen many times this season Bucks have deep team, even though their winning is questionable since they faced lots of teams without their best players not available.

Your rng word machine is broken I think. None of this makes any sense.

[Genjuro]

I don't think people actually hate Jokic, I think people hate that for some reason the unwritten rules about MVP don't apply to him. Team record did not matter last year when it has in the past. Guys have had monster years, Jordan included in this and voter fatigue stopped them from getting three in a row. The defensive part of this as well, not to mention the post season stuff, which people say does not matter but we know it does.

In which MVP has the post season mattered? I'm genuinely curious, because I can't think of any single one decided by previous post seasons.

As for the voter fatigue, in recent memory we only have Lebron in 2011, and it wasn't really voter fatigue, it was him joining a superteam, performing worse and his team not even topping the Conference in the regular season (plus The Decision backlash). Yes, I think he should've won over Rose, but this has nothing to do with Jokic's case, who is skipping that alleged voter fatigue by playing better and winning a lot more.

Otherwise we have to go all the way back to Jordan in 1997. That's prehistoric in terms of sports and stats coverage. And regardless, Jordan played a litte worse for a team that won a few games less (still 69, of course). Again, nothing to do with Jokic this season. Anyway, in today's NBA that would've never happened, Jordan would've won again in 1997 in a landslide (and probably Malone would've won the following one).

Also, I find funny how we all think that the 1997 MVP was a shame, yet many people use it to argue against a third MVP for Jokic. Unless you think Malone was the right winner that year, I find that line of thought rather contradictory.

[greekbuck34]

If you put 4 chairs to play alongside Jokic he would make them work . He had exactly that last season and they were sixth place in the West. Giannis wouldn't made it to the post season with the roster like that. And as we seen many times this season Bucks have deep team, even though their winning is questionable since they faced lots of teams without their best players not available.

You are telling me that current Giannis is not able to lead a bunch of players over the Minnessota Timberwolves in a season? Because every other team under the 21/22 Nuggets was either a full blown tank or completely hammered by serious injuries.

23y old Giannis who was just an all star then led a team to the playoffs with:

26y Middleton
John Henson Out of the league
Eric Bledsoe In China
Jabari "I'm not being paid to play defense" Parker Out of the league
Rookie Brogdon
Thon Maker Out of the league
Tony Snell Out of the league
40y Jason Terry
Dellavedova Cheerleader on the Kings
Tyler Zeller Out of the league

It's not that hard to lead a bad team to the playoffs. You just need to beat the bad teams with your MVP. That's what the 17/18 Bucks did with Giannis. That's what 21/22 Nuggets did with Jokic.

Bucks 27-9 vs bellow .500 teams.
Nuggets 28-8 vs bellow .500 teams.

[jokeboy86]

I don't think people actually hate Jokic, I think people hate that for some reason the unwritten rules about MVP don't apply to him. Team record did not matter last year when it has in the past. Guys have had monster years, Jordan included in this and voter fatigue stopped them from getting three in a row. The defensive part of this as well, not to mention the post season stuff, which people say does not matter but we know it does.

Who would you have voted for last year?

This is what I think that most people fail to answer the past two years. Embiid missed far too many games in '21 and Steph's and Giannis's team were worse than Jokic. Last year was a much tougher vote but Jokic had better stats and here's something that it's kind of weird that people forget is although Giannis and Embiid's teams were better than Jokic it was literally only by 3 games. Think about that for a second. Their teams were better than Jokic's by 3 games and he was missing his 2nd and 3rd best offensive player the entire year. Basically the whole year and his team still almost won 50 games.

[ReddoverKobe]

I don't think people actually hate Jokic, I think people hate that for some reason the unwritten rules about MVP don't apply to him. Team record did not matter last year when it has in the past. Guys have had monster years, Jordan included in this and voter fatigue stopped them from getting three in a row. The defensive part of this as well, not to mention the post season stuff, which people say does not matter but we know it does.

Who would you have voted for last year?

You're missing the point. Its not one thing, its everything added up. So in the past record mattered, until it didn't. People failing the postseason like Giannis mattered when he was going for his 3rd MVP, until it just didn't for Jokic. Dirk got killed for after losing the playoffs and he was never getting another vote but that does not matter for Jokic. It just odd.

[drdrG]

Hmm I think Giannis and Jokic are both totally deserving of the MVP this year. I'm biased towards Giannis but watching Jokic play is spectacular and he is consistently the best regular season player in the league.

I get the distaste for Jokic winning three MVPs in a row given historical precedent but I think this has all been contextual. For my taste, the issue is that while Giannis got even better in the title year (potential third MVP year), he and the organization used the regular season as a training plan for the postseason - which didn't translate into the clear statistical improvement or team record needed to overcome voter fatigue. It also followed postseason disappointment. Even though some people say it's an asterisk bubble championship for the Lakers, we don't also say it was an asterisk postseason loss for the other teams. The Bucks were on pace for a nearly 70 win that season and looked like clear favorites until the pandemic.

Jokic had great seasons the last two years and while I disagree with the premise that he has been the best player in basketball, in neither year would I have been persuaded that anyone clearly deserved MVPs more than him. I will say that I believe holding up a bad team, while heroic in our minds, is not nearly as difficult as elevating a team to historic heights. In my line of work, getting a project to 85% of completion takes as much work as getting it to the finish line. I think it's the same here. Luka did similar things last year with a similarly bad roster for example. The first MVP followed a surprising push into the bubble WCFs, a classic MVP trajectory following exceeding playoff expectations and given his roster last year, the early postseason exit was not considered a disappointment or his fault. That, I think has helped him avoid the overwhelming voter fatigue Giannis faced in 2020-2021.

That being said, Jokic is having the best season of his career. He's simply the best passer in basketball and I think his understanding of the game is as good as anyone I've ever seen live - which results in spectacular efficiency. His touch and control of the ball is mesmerizing. Denver is the number one seed in the West - all things supportive of why I think Jokic will win the award. I don't have a problem with that within my understanding of the context over these last seasons. I still think Giannis has been the best player in the world over the last 4 years as I think he is more capable of taking a team over the finish line than anyone else.

[BoatsNZones]

Hmm I think Giannis and Jokic are both totally deserving of the MVP this year. I'm biased towards Giannis but watching Jokic play is spectacular and he is consistently the best regular season player in the league.

I get the distaste for Jokic winning three MVPs in a row given historical precedent but I think this has all been contextual. For my taste, the issue is that while Giannis got even better in the title year (potential third MVP year), he and the organization used the regular season as a training plan for the postseason - which didn't translate into the clear statistical improvement or team record needed to overcome voter fatigue. It also followed postseason disappointment. Even though some people say it's an asterisk bubble championship for the Lakers, we don't also say it was an asterisk postseason loss for the other teams. The Bucks were on pace for a nearly 70 win that season and looked like clear favorites until the pandemic.

Jokic had great seasons the last two years and while I disagree with the premise that he has been the best player in basketball, in neither year would I have been persuaded that anyone clearly deserved MVPs more than him. I will say that I believe holding up a bad team, while heroic in our minds, is not nearly as difficult as elevating a team to historic heights. In my line of work, getting a project to 85% of completion takes as much work as getting it to the finish line. I think it's the same here. Luka did similar things last year with a similarly bad roster for example. The first MVP followed a surprising push into the bubble WCFs, a classic MVP trajectory following exceeding playoff expectations and given his roster last year, the early postseason exit was not considered a disappointment or his fault. That, I think has helped him avoid the overwhelming voter fatigue Giannis faced in 2020-2021.

That being said, Jokic is having the best season of his career. He's simply the best passer in basketball and I think his understanding of the game is as good as anyone I've ever seen live - which results in spectacular efficiency. His touch and control of the ball is mesmerizing. Denver is the number one seed in the West - all things supportive of why I think Jokic will win the award. I don't have a problem with that within my understanding of the context over these last seasons. I still think Giannis has been the best player in the world over the last 4 years as I think he is more capable of taking a team over the finish line than anyone else.

Wow. Although I disagree with some of the finer points (agree with much of it), this is the most reasonable and well thought out post here that I've seen in weeks.

[Genjuro]

I don't think people actually hate Jokic, I think people hate that for some reason the unwritten rules about MVP don't apply to him. Team record did not matter last year when it has in the past. Guys have had monster years, Jordan included in this and voter fatigue stopped them from getting three in a row. The defensive part of this as well, not to mention the post season stuff, which people say does not matter but we know it does.

Who would you have voted for last year?

You're missing the point. Its not one thing, its everything added up. So in the past record mattered, until it didn't. People failing the postseason like Giannis mattered when he was going for his 3rd MVP, until it just didn't for Jokic. Dirk got killed for after losing the playoffs and he was never getting another vote but that does not matter for Jokic. It just odd.

Well, I think it's even odder that you don't understand the difference between the Mavs collapse in 2007 and the Nuggets losing in the playoffs the past couple of years.

Regardless, Nowitzki had a significantly down year the following season and the Mavs as well (16 fewer wins), and by the 2008/09 season LeBron was clearly the best player in the NBA.

I'm asking again: in which MVP has the post-season mattered? Has any player lost the award because of past post-season failures?

[ReddoverKobe]

Who would you have voted for last year?

You're missing the point. Its not one thing, its everything added up. So in the past record mattered, until it didn't. People failing the postseason like Giannis mattered when he was going for his 3rd MVP, until it just didn't for Jokic. Dirk got killed for after losing the playoffs and he was never getting another vote but that does not matter for Jokic. It just odd.

Well, I think it's even odder that you don't understand the difference between the Mavs collapse in 2007 and the Nuggets losing in the playoffs the past couple of years.

Regardless, Nowitzki had a significantly down year the following season and the Mavs as well (16 fewer wins), and by the 2008/09 season LeBron was clearly the best player in the NBA.

I'm asking again: in which MVP has the post-season mattered? Has any player lost the award because of past post-season failures?

Oh, you are just a jokic stan whos gonna do this, nevermind. It's clear you never paid any attention to this in the past.

[AleksandarN]

Hmm I think Giannis and Jokic are both totally deserving of the MVP this year. I'm biased towards Giannis but watching Jokic play is spectacular and he is consistently the best regular season player in the league.

I get the distaste for Jokic winning three MVPs in a row given historical precedent but I think this has all been contextual. For my taste, the issue is that while Giannis got even better in the title year (potential third MVP year), he and the organization used the regular season as a training plan for the postseason - which didn't translate into the clear statistical improvement or team record needed to overcome voter fatigue. It also followed postseason disappointment. Even though some people say it's an asterisk bubble championship for the Lakers, we don't also say it was an asterisk postseason loss for the other teams. The Bucks were on pace for a nearly 70 win that season and looked like clear favorites until the pandemic.

Jokic had great seasons the last two years and while I disagree with the premise that he has been the best player in basketball, in neither year would I have been persuaded that anyone clearly deserved MVPs more than him. I will say that I believe holding up a bad team, while heroic in our minds, is not nearly as difficult as elevating a team to historic heights. In my line of work, getting a project to 85% of completion takes as much work as getting it to the finish line. I think it's the same here. Luka did similar things last year with a similarly bad roster for example. The first MVP followed a surprising push into the bubble WCFs, a classic MVP trajectory following exceeding playoff expectations and given his roster last year, the early postseason exit was not considered a disappointment or his fault. That, I think has helped him avoid the overwhelming voter fatigue Giannis faced in 2020-2021.

That being said, Jokic is having the best season of his career. He's simply the best passer in basketball and I think his understanding of the game is as good as anyone I've ever seen live - which results in spectacular efficiency. His touch and control of the ball is mesmerizing. Denver is the number one seed in the West - all things supportive of why I think Jokic will win the award. I don't have a problem with that within my understanding of the context over these last seasons. I still think Giannis has been the best player in the world over the last 4 years as I think he is more capable of taking a team over the finish line than anyone else.

Wow. Although I disagree with some of the finer points (agree with much of it), this is the most reasonable and well thought out post here that I've seen in weeks.

Same with me. Great job!

[Mickey8]

If you put 4 chairs to play alongside Jokic he would make them work . He had exactly that last season and they were sixth place in the West. Giannis wouldn't made it to the post season with the roster like that. And as we seen many times this season Bucks have deep team, even though their winning is questionable since they faced lots of teams without their best players not available.

You are telling me that current Giannis is not able to lead a bunch of players over the Minnessota Timberwolves in a season? Because every other team under the 21/22 Nuggets was either a full blown tank or completely hammered by serious injuries.

23y old Giannis who was just an all star then led a team to the playoffs with:

26y Middleton
John Henson Out of the league
Eric Bledsoe In China
Jabari "I'm not being paid to play defense" Parker Out of the league
Rookie Brogdon
Thon Maker Out of the league
Tony Snell Out of the league
40y Jason Terry
Dellavedova Cheerleader on the Kings
Tyler Zeller Out of the league

It's not that hard to lead a bad team to the playoffs. You just need to beat the bad teams with your MVP. That's what the 17/18 Bucks did with Giannis. That's what 21/22 Nuggets did with Jokic.

Bucks 27-9 vs bellow .500 teams.
Nuggets 28-8 vs bellow .500 teams.

The Nuggets were never full blown tank since Jokic got there and they have improved every season. And again Giannis would never been able to drag Will Barton,Monte Morris,Facundo Campazzo, Demarcus Couins etc to the play offs, especially in the Western Conference.

[Wolfgang630]

I still think Giannis should be getting more love from the voters and I hope the next straw poll reflects that.

[Genjuro]

You're missing the point. Its not one thing, its everything added up. So in the past record mattered, until it didn't. People failing the postseason like Giannis mattered when he was going for his 3rd MVP, until it just didn't for Jokic. Dirk got killed for after losing the playoffs and he was never getting another vote but that does not matter for Jokic. It just odd.

Well, I think it's even odder that you don't understand the difference between the Mavs collapse in 2007 and the Nuggets losing in the playoffs the past couple of years.

Regardless, Nowitzki had a significantly down year the following season and the Mavs as well (16 fewer wins), and by the 2008/09 season LeBron was clearly the best player in the NBA.

I'm asking again: in which MVP has the post-season mattered? Has any player lost the award because of past post-season failures?

Oh, you are just a jokic stan whos gonna do this, nevermind. It's clear you never paid any attention to this in the past.

That's why I'm asking, since it seems you have paid attention. Which deserving player has lost the MVP award because of past post-season performances?

[greekbuck34]

If you put 4 chairs to play alongside Jokic he would make them work . He had exactly that last season and they were sixth place in the West. Giannis wouldn't made it to the post season with the roster like that. And as we seen many times this season Bucks have deep team, even though their winning is questionable since they faced lots of teams without their best players not available.

You are telling me that current Giannis is not able to lead a bunch of players over the Minnessota Timberwolves in a season? Because every other team under the 21/22 Nuggets was either a full blown tank or completely hammered by serious injuries.

23y old Giannis who was just an all star then led a team to the playoffs with:

26y Middleton
John Henson Out of the league
Eric Bledsoe In China
Jabari "I'm not being paid to play defense" Parker Out of the league
Rookie Brogdon
Thon Maker Out of the league
Tony Snell Out of the league
40y Jason Terry
Dellavedova Cheerleader on the Kings
Tyler Zeller Out of the league

It's not that hard to lead a bad team to the playoffs. You just need to beat the bad teams with your MVP. That's what the 17/18 Bucks did with Giannis. That's what 21/22 Nuggets did with Jokic.

Bucks 27-9 vs bellow .500 teams.
Nuggets 28-8 vs bellow .500 teams.

The Nuggets were never full blown tank since Jokic got there and they have improved every season. And again Giannis would never been able to drag Will Barton,Monte Morris,Facundo Campazzo, Demarcus Couins etc to the play offs, especially in the Western Conference.

What western conference? The whole conference was a hospital. You are delusional.

Not just Giannis. Luka, Embiid if healthy and maybe Durant could lead a team on a better record than the Wolves and a bunch of teams that seek to lose on purpose or have no other choice because most of their starters are injured for the whole season.

[Chessboxer]

I don't think people actually hate Jokic, I think people hate that for some reason the unwritten rules about MVP don't apply to him. Team record did not matter last year when it has in the past. Guys have had monster years, Jordan included in this and voter fatigue stopped them from getting three in a row. The defensive part of this as well, not to mention the post season stuff, which people say does not matter but we know it does.

Agreed, the voting criteria has changed to favour Jokic. It used to be best player on the best team. Now since Jokic emerged as an MVP candidate the voting process skewed to favor analytics. Its basically now the MVOAP(Most Valuable Offensive Analytics Player) award, since team record is weighted less. When an MVP candidate can lead his team to the best record in the league(for now) on a 16 game win streak, yet still not be in consideration for winning the award, then the voting criteria has become flawed, and we have to reimagine what the MVP award really means going forward.