Jokic vs. Kobe- defense only

[iggymcfrack]

Is it crazy to think Jokic is better? Here's their cleaning the glass defensive on/off data, + means you make the team worse, - means you make them better. League percentile in parenthesis. 03/04 is first year for database.

Kobe Bryant
03/04 +1.0 (42)
04/05 +1.1 (39)
05/06 +9.0 (3)
06/07 -1.0 (59)
07/08 -0.5 (54)
08/09 +1.2 (39)
09/10 -3.3 (80)
10/11 +5.6 (13)
11/12 -2.4 (69)
12/13 +4.6 (15)
13/14 -2.1 (69) (only played 6 games)
14/15 +6.8 (6)
15/16 +7.7 (6)

Nikola Jokic
15/16 -7.3 (96)
16/17 -3.3 (77)
17/18 -5.2 (89)
18/19 -2.8 (77)
19/20 -4.8 (84)
20/21 +6.8 (8)
21/22 -8.2 (95)
22/23 -8.3 (96)

Yeah, I know there can be problems with raw data, but still.... that's a pretty overwhelming dataset isn't it? Jokic has 7 out of 8 seasons in the top 25% of the league. Kobe has 1 out of 13. People say Jokic benefits from Denver's starters playing together, but even in his rookie season where he played 22 MPG and split time starting and coming off the bench, he still showed tremendous value. His last 2 seasons are 5 points per 100 better than Kobe's best in the dataset. And Kobe had some real stinkers. The 2006 season in particular was abominable and that completely fits my memory of the season with the announcers mentioning the word "rest" about 15 times a game in regard to the way Kobe was playing defense. It's like "no it looks really bad how he's giving no effort but he HAS TO do this, because he doesn't trust anyone else on his team to shoot". Like I feel this is just too consistent to be a fluke. Thoughts?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Is it crazy to think Jokic is better? Here's their cleaning the glass defensive on/off data, + means you make the team worse, - means you make them better. League percentile in parenthesis. 03/04 is first year for database.

Kobe Bryant
03/04 +1.0 (42)
04/05 +1.1 (39)
05/06 +9.0 (3)
06/07 -1.0 (59)
07/08 -0.5 (54)
08/09 +1.2 (39)
09/10 -3.3 (80)
10/11 +5.6 (13)
11/12 -2.4 (69)
12/13 +4.6 (15)
13/14 -2.1 (69) (only played 6 games)
14/15 +6.8 (6)
15/16 +7.7 (6)

Nikola Jokic
15/16 -7.3 (96)
16/17 -3.3 (77)
17/18 -5.2 (89)
18/19 -2.8 (77)
19/20 -4.8 (84)
20/21 +6.8 (8)
21/22 -8.2 (95)
22/23 -8.3 (96)

Yeah, I know there can be problems with raw data, but still.... that's a pretty overwhelming dataset isn't it? Jokic has 7 out of 8 seasons in the top 25% of the league. Kobe has 1 out of 13. People say Jokic benefits from Denver's starters playing together, but even in his rookie season where he played 22 MPG and split time starting and coming off the bench, he still showed tremendous value. His last 2 seasons are 5 points per 100 better than Kobe's best in the dataset. And Kobe had some real stinkers. The 2006 season in particular was abominable and that completely fits my memory of the season with the announcers mentioning the word "rest" about 15 times a game in regard to the way Kobe was playing defense. It's like "no it looks really bad how he's giving no effort but he HAS TO do this, because he doesn't trust anyone else on his team to shoot". Like I feel this is just too consistent to be a fluke. Thoughts?

The issue with Jokic is that his playoff defense atm hasn’t looked good eye test wise, and in terms of raw impact (with the Obvious caveat of small samples) that it’s been absolutely horrendous for pretty much 7/8 of his last playoff series to the point where it’s a fair statement to say he has to show he’s not a game breaking liability on the defensive end.

I don’t think it’s as bad as the data would indicate, that’s probably noise, but the data indicates he’s a worst in the nba type

Realistically he’s more a decent-good defender in some matchups and a below average one in other matchups, where he gets targeted in extended pick and roll, but I’m in the camp of wanting to see it first

His regular season defense is good but that’s not what people are harping him for, so I don’t really see the point of this, I think everyone knows his defensive impact numbers in the RS have been good, feel this is an issue of being too data focused and not enough basketball focus

[dygaction]

what an out-of-the-box question, why can't i be so creative?...

[Ron Swanson]

I mean, as overrated as prime offensive hub and later career Kobe's defense is (2006-2013), younger Kobe was every bit the elite wing defender that his reputation suggested it was. And even pre-2012, he was never a noticeable liability in the postseason like Jokic has demonstrated. Just a really weird comparison I guess.

[No-more-rings]

I mean, as overrated as prime offensive hub and later career Kobe's defense is (2006-2013), younger Kobe was every bit the elite wing defender that his reputation suggested it was. And even pre-2012, he was never a noticeable liability in the postseason like Jokic has demonstrated. Just a really weird comparison I guess.

Well the OP has a pretty lengthy anti-Kobe history, so there’s most likely an agenda here, and not intended for serious discussion.

[iggymcfrack]

I mean, as overrated as prime offensive hub and later career Kobe's defense is (2006-2013), younger Kobe was every bit the elite wing defender that his reputation suggested it was. And even pre-2012, he was never a noticeable liability in the postseason like Jokic has demonstrated. Just a really weird comparison I guess.

Well the OP has a pretty lengthy anti-Kobe history, so there’s most likely an agenda here, and not intended for serious discussion.

I’m just low in him because of numbers like this. I spent more of his career cheering for him than against him.

[iggymcfrack]

Is it crazy to think Jokic is better? Here's their cleaning the glass defensive on/off data, + means you make the team worse, - means you make them better. League percentile in parenthesis. 03/04 is first year for database.

Kobe Bryant
03/04 +1.0 (42)
04/05 +1.1 (39)
05/06 +9.0 (3)
06/07 -1.0 (59)
07/08 -0.5 (54)
08/09 +1.2 (39)
09/10 -3.3 (80)
10/11 +5.6 (13)
11/12 -2.4 (69)
12/13 +4.6 (15)
13/14 -2.1 (69) (only played 6 games)
14/15 +6.8 (6)
15/16 +7.7 (6)

Nikola Jokic
15/16 -7.3 (96)
16/17 -3.3 (77)
17/18 -5.2 (89)
18/19 -2.8 (77)
19/20 -4.8 (84)
20/21 +6.8 (8)
21/22 -8.2 (95)
22/23 -8.3 (96)

Yeah, I know there can be problems with raw data, but still.... that's a pretty overwhelming dataset isn't it? Jokic has 7 out of 8 seasons in the top 25% of the league. Kobe has 1 out of 13. People say Jokic benefits from Denver's starters playing together, but even in his rookie season where he played 22 MPG and split time starting and coming off the bench, he still showed tremendous value. His last 2 seasons are 5 points per 100 better than Kobe's best in the dataset. And Kobe had some real stinkers. The 2006 season in particular was abominable and that completely fits my memory of the season with the announcers mentioning the word "rest" about 15 times a game in regard to the way Kobe was playing defense. It's like "no it looks really bad how he's giving no effort but he HAS TO do this, because he doesn't trust anyone else on his team to shoot". Like I feel this is just too consistent to be a fluke. Thoughts?

The issue with Jokic is that his playoff defense atm hasn’t looked good eye test wise, and in terms of raw impact (with the Obvious caveat of small samples) that it’s been absolutely horrendous for pretty much 7/8 of his last playoff series to the point where it’s a fair statement to say he has to show he’s not a game breaking liability on the defensive end.

I don’t think it’s as bad as the data would indicate, that’s probably noise, but the data indicates he’s a worst in the nba type

Realistically he’s more a decent-good defender in some matchups and a below average one in other matchups, where he gets targeted in extended pick and roll, but I’m in the camp of wanting to see it first

His regular season defense is good but that’s not what people are harping him for, so I don’t really see the point of this, I think everyone knows his defensive impact numbers in the RS have been good, feel this is an issue of being too data focused and not enough basketball focus

That’s interesting. I didn’t realize it was that bad. I mean I knew the Warriors series was a mess and that his overall impact numbers were lesser in the postseason, but I didn’t realize 7/8 series were that bad. Where are you looking at numbers for one side of the ball for individual series?

[Statlanta]

The fact that we have to compare a guard and not a forward to Jokic shows how bad his defense is.

[No-more-rings]

I mean the poll results show just how unserious this comparison even was.

[1993Playoffs]

The fact that we have to compare a guard and not a forward to Jokic shows how bad his defense is.

And said guard isn’t even a great defender himself

[trelos6]

In a vacuum, Jokic, because he is a big man and rim protection is more valuable.

By position, it’s Kobe. He was an elite wing defender from 97-04.

[rim213221]

Kobe by quite some distance. Elite perimeter man-to-man and help defender and overall 2-way player. Jokic is a poor defensive player overall.

[OhayoKD]

Is it crazy to think Jokic is better? Here's their cleaning the glass defensive on/off data, + means you make the team worse, - means you make them better. League percentile in parenthesis. 03/04 is first year for database.

Kobe Bryant
03/04 +1.0 (42)
04/05 +1.1 (39)
05/06 +9.0 (3)
06/07 -1.0 (59)
07/08 -0.5 (54)
08/09 +1.2 (39)
09/10 -3.3 (80)
10/11 +5.6 (13)
11/12 -2.4 (69)
12/13 +4.6 (15)
13/14 -2.1 (69) (only played 6 games)
14/15 +6.8 (6)
15/16 +7.7 (6)

Nikola Jokic
15/16 -7.3 (96)
16/17 -3.3 (77)
17/18 -5.2 (89)
18/19 -2.8 (77)
19/20 -4.8 (84)
20/21 +6.8 (8)
21/22 -8.2 (95)
22/23 -8.3 (96)

Yeah, I know there can be problems with raw data, but still.... that's a pretty overwhelming dataset isn't it? Jokic has 7 out of 8 seasons in the top 25% of the league. Kobe has 1 out of 13. People say Jokic benefits from Denver's starters playing together, but even in his rookie season where he played 22 MPG and split time starting and coming off the bench, he still showed tremendous value. His last 2 seasons are 5 points per 100 better than Kobe's best in the dataset. And Kobe had some real stinkers. The 2006 season in particular was abominable and that completely fits my memory of the season with the announcers mentioning the word "rest" about 15 times a game in regard to the way Kobe was playing defense. It's like "no it looks really bad how he's giving no effort but he HAS TO do this, because he doesn't trust anyone else on his team to shoot". Like I feel this is just too consistent to be a fluke. Thoughts?

The issue with Jokic is that his playoff defense atm hasn’t looked good eye test wise, and in terms of raw impact (with the Obvious caveat of small samples) that it’s been absolutely horrendous for pretty much 7/8 of his last playoff series to the point where it’s a fair statement to say he has to show he’s not a game breaking liability on the defensive end.

I don’t think it’s as bad as the data would indicate, that’s probably noise, but the data indicates he’s a worst in the nba type

Realistically he’s more a decent-good defender in some matchups and a below average one in other matchups, where he gets targeted in extended pick and roll, but I’m in the camp of wanting to see it first

His regular season defense is good but that’s not what people are harping him for, so I don’t really see the point of this, I think everyone knows his defensive impact numbers in the RS have been good, feel this is an issue of being too data focused and not enough basketball focus

Tbf, I'm pretty sure Jokic wipes Kobe for "one-game defensive peak"

That being said...Iggy, maybe take a look at Jokic's playoff on/off

[kobe_vs_jordan]

This A case study on why advance defense metrics are useless.

[Colbinii]

This A case study on why advance defense metrics are useless.

That isn't true. You just need to understand what the statistics are saying in order to use them correctly.

Most defensive "Advanced Metrics" [I assume you mean things like DBPM, which isn't even referenced in the OP] factor in rebounding and other variables to attempt to capture defense.

What OP used was simply +/- [Specifically On/Off]. I don't consider On/Off as an Advanced Metric, do you?

As a counterpoint, Jokic peaked as a 9.2 OBPM player while Kobe was 7.4 OBPM. Most agree Jokic is a better offensive player than Kobe. Does this mean Advanced Metrics are, in fact, not useless?

[kobe_vs_jordan]

This A case study on why advance defense metrics are useless.

That isn't true. You just need to understand what the statistics are saying in order to use them correctly.

Most defensive "Advanced Metrics" [I assume you mean things like DBPM, which isn't even referenced in the OP] factor in rebounding and other variables to attempt to capture defense.

What OP used was simply +/- [Specifically On/Off]. I don't consider On/Off as an Advanced Metric, do you?

As a counterpoint, Jokic peaked as a 9.2 OBPM player while Kobe was 7.4 OBPM. Most agree Jokic is a better offensive player than Kobe. Does this mean Advanced Metrics are, in fact, not useless?

Plus minus is definitely considered an advance stat? OBPM even has it in its name ?

Not much of a counter point since if you score efficiency and assist you are a good offensive player. Meanwhile on defense, rebounds, blocks and steals don’t mean you are a good defensive player. Apple and oranges there. Offensive advance stats do a way better job correlating if a player is good or not than defensive stats.

[Black Feet]

it’s clearly Kobe, Jokic will never make a defensive team in his career. kinda pathetic you have to compare him to a guard to try and prop up his defense.

[Dr Positivity]

It might be closer than expected in regular season but you can blame some of Denver's playoff losses on Jokic defense

[JimmyFromNz]

I dont understand the comparison, or the use of on/off data when you look at the context of the positions and the teams they were on? With respect, the clunky use of analytics copy and pasting on this forum is really hard to get behind.

To answer the question (as an apples-oranges comparison) is that early career Kobe was an all nba level defensive guard, Jokic will unlikely ever be considered that at his position/role. If we want to persist framing defensive impact relative to position, then the 2nd half of Kobe's career would be far more comparable, but then again I'm not sure what conclusions if any can be drawn.

[OhayoKD]

This A case study on why advance defense metrics are useless.

That isn't true. You just need to understand what the statistics are saying in order to use them correctly.

Most defensive "Advanced Metrics" [I assume you mean things like DBPM, which isn't even referenced in the OP] factor in rebounding and other variables to attempt to capture defense.

What OP used was simply +/- [Specifically On/Off]. I don't consider On/Off as an Advanced Metric, do you?

As a counterpoint, Jokic peaked as a 9.2 OBPM player while Kobe was 7.4 OBPM. Most agree Jokic is a better offensive player than Kobe. Does this mean Advanced Metrics are, in fact, not useless?

A metric like BPM does alot better tracking offense than it would defense