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OhayoKD wrote:70sFan wrote:DCasey91 wrote:The caveat though is I believe Buck’s defence stays relatively stable with Lopez off and Giannis on QBing the defence. (Even before Lopez came too btw).
The same thing can be said about Bucks defense with Lopez on and Giannis off though.
There is a 7 point gap between Giannis off, Lopez on and Lopez off and Giannis on. So uh...no
Peregrine01 wrote:OhayoKD wrote:70sFan wrote:The same thing can be said about Bucks defense with Lopez on and Giannis off though.
There is a 7 point gap between Giannis off, Lopez on and Lopez off and Giannis on. So uh...no
Source?
dygaction wrote:kendogg wrote:Jaivl wrote:Nobody is "far more athletic" than KG lol. Maybe you're thinking about old KG there.
Maybe you are just watching the wrong game.
KG has never had Elite hops at any point in his career. He's never been below average but never Elite either.
Throughout his career starting at SF and going to PF then C, he never had GOAT level quickness for his position, not even Superstar level. Maybe Allstar level.
Young KG was absolutely a liability in strength, and has his career went on he lost some of his speed and added muscle to compensate, as many players do as they age. I'd say he was below average strength for most of his career, and maybe average in the end. He was still a skinny ass in his MVP years.
Yes he has elite length and timing and court awareness. To me he's similar to Larry Bird in that they aren't traditionally exceptional atheletes but their mental plus length allows them to have significant impact on the defensive end.
wait a minute, I don't know whether you are over evaluating Bird or underselling KG. They should not be in the same sentence when we talk about defense.
OhayoKD wrote:70sFan wrote:DCasey91 wrote:The caveat though is I believe Buck’s defence stays relatively stable with Lopez off and Giannis on QBing the defence. (Even before Lopez came too btw).
The same thing can be said about Bucks defense with Lopez on and Giannis off though.
There is a 7 point gap between Giannis off, Lopez on and Lopez off and Giannis on. So uh...no
70sFan wrote:DCasey91 wrote:The caveat though is I believe Buck’s defence stays relatively stable with Lopez off and Giannis on QBing the defence. (Even before Lopez came too btw).
The same thing can be said about Bucks defense with Lopez on and Giannis off though.
Among players who’ve contested 150+ FGA within 6 feet, Giannis is #1 in the league, holding opponents to 16.1% (lol) worse shooting at that range. Overall he’s holding opponents to 7.5% worse shooting, which among guys who’ve guarded a similar volume of shots is #1 by a distance. Even when Brook is off the floor (and filtering out any Nwora minutes lol), the Bucks still have the equivalent of the #1 defense in the league.
Giannis is still a menace defensively and the anchor of an absolutely elite team defense.
Magic Giannison wrote:70sFan wrote:DCasey91 wrote:The caveat though is I believe Buck’s defence stays relatively stable with Lopez off and Giannis on QBing the defence. (Even before Lopez came too btw).
The same thing can be said about Bucks defense with Lopez on and Giannis off though.
This is incorrect, With Giannis he can virtually adapt to any lineup and still keep the Bucks on top defenses.
Lopez on other hand gets demolished with his drop coverage and sagging vs any good shooting team.
This is also the reason why Lopez was never known as a good defender before he came to the Bucks. Bud and Bucks defensive team use Giannis and Jrue to redirect the offense towards Brook.
Giannis has been elite defensive since he was 21 ( 2016-17 season) and was keeping that even with very weak Bigs at his side ( john Henson, Thon Maker, Miles Plumlee) and was keeping the Bucks defense top of the league ever since.
That doesn't diminishes what Book Lopez does far from it, his importance on the team defense is undeniable but when it comes to individual impact and anchor Giannis is significantly better than him.
There is a reason why many times Lopez gets benched and we play small ball lineup with Giannis at 5 to counter even tho Giannis at center means him risking to foul more.
I quote Prez from the Bucks board showcasing just a small part of GIannis defense.Among players who’ve contested 150+ FGA within 6 feet, Giannis is #1 in the league, holding opponents to 16.1% (lol) worse shooting at that range. Overall he’s holding opponents to 7.5% worse shooting, which among guys who’ve guarded a similar volume of shots is #1 by a distance. Even when Brook is off the floor (and filtering out any Nwora minutes lol), the Bucks still have the equivalent of the #1 defense in the league.
Giannis is still a menace defensively and the anchor of an absolutely elite team defense.
Basically, Giannis the system of our defense,Brook compliments it, without Giannis there is no system
70sFan wrote:Magic Giannison wrote:70sFan wrote:The same thing can be said about Bucks defense with Lopez on and Giannis off though.
This is incorrect, With Giannis he can virtually adapt to any lineup and still keep the Bucks on top defenses.
Lopez on other hand gets demolished with his drop coverage and sagging vs any good shooting team.
This is also the reason why Lopez was never known as a good defender before he came to the Bucks. Bud and Bucks defensive team use Giannis and Jrue to redirect the offense towards Brook.
Giannis has been elite defensive since he was 21 ( 2016-17 season) and was keeping that even with very weak Bigs at his side ( john Henson, Thon Maker, Miles Plumlee) and was keeping the Bucks defense top of the league ever since.
That doesn't diminishes what Book Lopez does far from it, his importance on the team defense is undeniable but when it comes to individual impact and anchor Giannis is significantly better than him.
There is a reason why many times Lopez gets benched and we play small ball lineup with Giannis at 5 to counter even tho Giannis at center means him risking to foul more.
I quote Prez from the Bucks board showcasing just a small part of GIannis defense.Among players who’ve contested 150+ FGA within 6 feet, Giannis is #1 in the league, holding opponents to 16.1% (lol) worse shooting at that range. Overall he’s holding opponents to 7.5% worse shooting, which among guys who’ve guarded a similar volume of shots is #1 by a distance. Even when Brook is off the floor (and filtering out any Nwora minutes lol), the Bucks still have the equivalent of the #1 defense in the league.
Giannis is still a menace defensively and the anchor of an absolutely elite team defense.
Basically, Giannis the system of our defense,Brook compliments it, without Giannis there is no system
I don't know about specific matchups, but I posted numbers above against the whole league and Lopez did fine as the main anchor.
It doesn't mean that Giannis is overrated or anything like that. Giannis is a clearly better defender than Lopez, I don't deny that. I also agree that Lopez can struggle against certain matchups (though it's a guess without any data).
What I say is that Bucks defense was consistently good without Giannis. We have numbers to support it. It doesn't make Giannis any less impressive. Spurs without Duncan were consistently good defensively, Timmy is still one of the best defenders ever.
LukaTheGOAT wrote:To me, KG is a better man defender (think he can defend the perimeter better and most bigs, except for bigs who are maybe particularly good with upfakes).
KG is a better help defender, as I think he covers more ground. He's like a gazelle, and in terms of short area movement, is better to me than Giannis. I think KG is more reactive to incoming threats when they come.
I also think KG has better defensive awareness, so not only does he react quicker, but I think he is more likely to be able to plug leaks in his team's defense when they arrive.
Rim-protection in terms of being at the rim and contesting a shot...I believe I still lean KG here, but this is more of an argument to me.
You can argue about how responsibility on the offensive end might effect this, however KG has a higher motor on defense than Giannis as well.
Pace is up in today's NBA, so that probably has some impact on this, but KG just played more minutes per game, which makes him a better bet to have better defensive impact. There is also plenty of reason to believe KG was a better defender than Giannis on a per-possession or per-minute basis.
KG's Peaks in Following Stats
NBA Shot Charts D-RAPM-4.25 in 2011 (Only goes back to 2010)
D-RAPTOR-4.96
SPI-3.9
PIPM-4.40
Giannis' Peaks in Following Stats
NBA Shot Charts RAPM-3.49
D-RAPTOR-3.4
SPI-4.3
PIPM-4.27 (Only have up through 2020, however 2020 is considered his best full-season of defense, so perhaps it does not matter)
MyUniBroDavis wrote:LukaTheGOAT wrote:To me, KG is a better man defender (think he can defend the perimeter better and most bigs, except for bigs who are maybe particularly good with upfakes).
KG is a better help defender, as I think he covers more ground. He's like a gazelle, and in terms of short area movement, is better to me than Giannis. I think KG is more reactive to incoming threats when they come.
I also think KG has better defensive awareness, so not only does he react quicker, but I think he is more likely to be able to plug leaks in his team's defense when they arrive.
Rim-protection in terms of being at the rim and contesting a shot...I believe I still lean KG here, but this is more of an argument to me.
You can argue about how responsibility on the offensive end might effect this, however KG has a higher motor on defense than Giannis as well.
Pace is up in today's NBA, so that probably has some impact on this, but KG just played more minutes per game, which makes him a better bet to have better defensive impact. There is also plenty of reason to believe KG was a better defender than Giannis on a per-possession or per-minute basis.
KG's Peaks in Following Stats
NBA Shot Charts D-RAPM-4.25 in 2011 (Only goes back to 2010)
D-RAPTOR-4.96
SPI-3.9
PIPM-4.40
Giannis' Peaks in Following Stats
NBA Shot Charts RAPM-3.49
D-RAPTOR-3.4
SPI-4.3
PIPM-4.27 (Only have up through 2020, however 2020 is considered his best full-season of defense, so perhaps it does not matter)
Comparing raw rapm values across years like that doesn’t really work, standard dev I think has issues doing it like that too but I’d assume itd make more sense (never looked into the calculation for rapm too much so not sure), and in that regard 2020 Giannis’s higher than 2011 garnett iirc
70sFan wrote:OhayoKD wrote:70sFan wrote:The same thing can be said about Bucks defense with Lopez on and Giannis off though.
There is a 7 point gap between Giannis off, Lopez on and Lopez off and Giannis on. So uh...no
We have such data available online and I have no idea where your numbers come from:
http://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612749&Season=2022-23,2021-22,2020-21,2019-20,2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=201572,203507
Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo ON
4974 minutes
11.06 Net Rating
117.12 ORtg
106.06 DRtg
Giannis Antetokounmpo ON
Brook Lopez OFF
5136 minutes
10.15 Net Rating
118.15 ORtg
108.00 DRtg
Brook Lopez ON
Giannis Antetokounmpo OFF
3212 minutes
5.85 Net Rating
115.77 ORtg
109.92 DRtg
Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo OFF
4571 minutes
-3.16 Net Rating
108.82 ORtg
111.98 DRtg
Across 4 regular seasons, the difference is noticeable (-1.9), but it's far from -7. Bucks with Lopez ON and Giannis OFF were still good defensively.
If you have more reliable source and can explain us what these stats miss, please provide it.
Edit: just saw your reply, Ben uses the same database but he uses much smaller sample of size.
The-Power wrote:Spoiler:
I thought is would be interesting to have a season-by-season breakdown to see any development over time, so here it goes.
2018-19 RS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 105.4 (1494)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 103.7 (864)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 107.5 (827)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 109.2 (770)
2019 PS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 101.7 (292)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 103.7 (222)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 104.7 (146)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 104.5 (70)
2019-20 RS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 97.7 (1153)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 103.6 (764)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 109.8 (664)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 106.4 (938)
2020 PS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 109.7 (180)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 107.2 (97)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 110.9 (148)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 106.7 (60)
2020-21 RS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 112.2 (1269)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 108.4 (744)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 113.0 (633)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 114.7 (821)
2021 PS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 105.2 (491)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 107.0 (309)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 114.3 (176)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 113.1 (139)
2021-22 RS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 111.7 (154)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 110.7 (2050)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 118.7 (144)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 113.8 (1602)
2022 PS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 101.9 (229)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 100.2 (219)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 112.5 (103)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 108.8 (25)
2022-23 RS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 108.9 (903)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 110.1 (714)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 108.9 (944)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 117.9 (440)
Obviously with the playoffs there are sample size issues but here's how it looks over 4 playoff runs.
2019-2022 PS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 104.3 (1192)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 104.4 (847)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 110.6 (572)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 109.2 (294)
And just to also present the numbers for the regular season only.
2018-2023 RS
Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 106.1 (4974)
Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 108.0 (5136)
Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 109.9 (3212)
Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 112.0 (4571)
Giannis' edge is fairly consistent across the RS and perhaps as expected – they are elite when both play, somewhat worse with only Giannis (driven mostly by their insane 2019-20 campaign), once again somewhat worse with only Lopez, and worse yet again without either. However, the playoff picture indicates that Giannis is able to maintain the elite defense when it's only him, whereas the defense falls off pretty dramatically with only Lopez – and the sample size is probably large enough to see it as a meaningful pattern that isn't just noise (although it would be better to look at in greater detail with respect to line-ups used and faced).
LukaTheGOAT wrote:MyUniBroDavis wrote:LukaTheGOAT wrote:To me, KG is a better man defender (think he can defend the perimeter better and most bigs, except for bigs who are maybe particularly good with upfakes).
KG is a better help defender, as I think he covers more ground. He's like a gazelle, and in terms of short area movement, is better to me than Giannis. I think KG is more reactive to incoming threats when they come.
I also think KG has better defensive awareness, so not only does he react quicker, but I think he is more likely to be able to plug leaks in his team's defense when they arrive.
Rim-protection in terms of being at the rim and contesting a shot...I believe I still lean KG here, but this is more of an argument to me.
You can argue about how responsibility on the offensive end might effect this, however KG has a higher motor on defense than Giannis as well.
Pace is up in today's NBA, so that probably has some impact on this, but KG just played more minutes per game, which makes him a better bet to have better defensive impact. There is also plenty of reason to believe KG was a better defender than Giannis on a per-possession or per-minute basis.
KG's Peaks in Following Stats
NBA Shot Charts D-RAPM-4.25 in 2011 (Only goes back to 2010)
D-RAPTOR-4.96
SPI-3.9
PIPM-4.40
Giannis' Peaks in Following Stats
NBA Shot Charts RAPM-3.49
D-RAPTOR-3.4
SPI-4.3
PIPM-4.27 (Only have up through 2020, however 2020 is considered his best full-season of defense, so perhaps it does not matter)
Comparing raw rapm values across years like that doesn’t really work, standard dev I think has issues doing it like that too but I’d assume itd make more sense (never looked into the calculation for rapm too much so not sure), and in that regard 2020 Giannis’s higher than 2011 garnett iirc
I have 2020 Giannis' NBA Shot Charts D-RAPM listed there which is a 3.49. 2020 Giannis is not higher than 2011 Garnett who is at a 4.25 (not his peak defensive season in per-possession defensive value).
MyUniBroDavis wrote:LukaTheGOAT wrote:MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Comparing raw rapm values across years like that doesn’t really work, standard dev I think has issues doing it like that too but I’d assume itd make more sense (never looked into the calculation for rapm too much so not sure), and in that regard 2020 Giannis’s higher than 2011 garnett iirc
I have 2020 Giannis' NBA Shot Charts D-RAPM listed there which is a 3.49. 2020 Giannis is not higher than 2011 Garnett who is at a 4.25 (not his peak defensive season in per-possession defensive value).
Dawg I just said you can’t compare raw rapm like that lol
Whether it be league situation or something with how it’s calculated I’m not entirely sure, don’t remember much about what the regularization actually is
Standard devs kind of work bettter altho still not perfect and Giannis is ahead in that regard
Also as far as I know his NPI DRAPM in 2011 is the same as 2008 and 2009 roughly although I’m not super sure on that
Just to make sure, Giannis is 4.5 standard deviations vs DRAPM, KG is 3.6 I think unless I did it wrong
Giannis’s is the best in the data set by a lot iirc. Garnett’s best years rank high too
Wouldn’t say it matters all too much cuz there are issues doing it this way too, but feels like it would make more sense than raw RAPM values for obvious reasons
Should be noted that the luck adjusted rapm is insane for giannis’s 2020 in this regard as well, pretty sure the at ones an outlier among outliers without even considering the clear collinearnity issues not being fully solved in the data as well
Don’t think KG grades out as very definitively better in impact data vs 2020 Giannis, which shouldn’t be too suprising, iirc it’s the highest LEBRON ever (2010-2023), and I think the current iteration of brons the best all in one compared to EPM and DPM. His D-Lebron is a bit lower but it also really likes blocks and stuff in its formula
That wouldn’t make sense if it just took raw values, because rapm values are generally lower now I think
This isn’t to say Giannis clears easily or anything, there are issues with using deviations as well although it’s better than raw values I’d think for obvious reasons
But Giannis defensive impact data in 2020 was I think an outlier like KGs Boston years were, it could be argued it was a bigger one as well I think
LukaTheGOAT wrote:MyUniBroDavis wrote:LukaTheGOAT wrote:
I have 2020 Giannis' NBA Shot Charts D-RAPM listed there which is a 3.49. 2020 Giannis is not higher than 2011 Garnett who is at a 4.25 (not his peak defensive season in per-possession defensive value).
Dawg I just said you can’t compare raw rapm like that lol
Whether it be league situation or something with how it’s calculated I’m not entirely sure, don’t remember much about what the regularization actually is
Standard devs kind of work bettter altho still not perfect and Giannis is ahead in that regard
Also as far as I know his NPI DRAPM in 2011 is the same as 2008 and 2009 roughly although I’m not super sure on that
Just to make sure, Giannis is 4.5 standard deviations vs DRAPM, KG is 3.6 I think unless I did it wrong
Giannis’s is the best in the data set by a lot iirc. Garnett’s best years rank high too
Wouldn’t say it matters all too much cuz there are issues doing it this way too, but feels like it would make more sense than raw RAPM values for obvious reasons
Should be noted that the luck adjusted rapm is insane for giannis’s 2020 in this regard as well, pretty sure the at ones an outlier among outliers without even considering the clear collinearnity issues not being fully solved in the data as well
Don’t think KG grades out as very definitively better in impact data vs 2020 Giannis, which shouldn’t be too suprising, iirc it’s the highest LEBRON ever (2010-2023), and I think the current iteration of brons the best all in one compared to EPM and DPM. His D-Lebron is a bit lower but it also really likes blocks and stuff in its formula
That wouldn’t make sense if it just took raw values, because rapm values are generally lower now I think
This isn’t to say Giannis clears easily or anything, there are issues with using deviations as well although it’s better than raw values I’d think for obvious reasons
But Giannis defensive impact data in 2020 was I think an outlier like KGs Boston years were, it could be argued it was a bigger one as well I think
You incorrectly said, that Giannis' D-RAPM is higher than KG's in 2011. That was incorrect, hence I corrected you.
There's to be a bigger argument to be had regarding comparing RAPM data from other years but okay. I think defensive values are generally lower today than during KG's time, because I think it is harder to have that upper-echelon defensive impact with the game being so spaced-out (not impossible).
LEBRON has you mentioned only goes back to 2010, hence it cuts out prime KG, in particular, his 08 season. Since you have concern about KG's defense from coming a different dataset, we can look at Englemann's 97-22 D-RAPM
KG's D-RAPM: -5.8 (Lower is better, for this set)
Giannis' D-RAPM: -2.8
Captures the earlier years for both guys, and the downside of KG's career as well. Quite the gap between them.
Cheema's 97-21 RAPM is not created with offensive/defensive splits, but there are some valuable insights to be made.
KG: 5.01
Giannis: 3.42
We don't know what their offensive and defensive splits would be...however, it seems more believable that KG would have an argument over Giannis defensively, than he does offensively.
If we look at best 5-year peak stretches of RAPM
03-07 KG: 6.17
00-04 KG: 6.01
02-06 KG: 5.98
01-05 KG: 5.76
04-08 KG: 5.64
05-09 KG: 5.52
06-10 KG: 5.44
08-12 KG: 5.25
07-11 KG: 5.24
99-03 KG: 5.13
09-13 KG: 4.49
Giannis' Peak in this data-set (that only goes to 2021, but once again, Giannis' defensive grades out strongest in his 2020 year)
17-21 Giannis: 4.22
Once again, we don't have splits, but it seems reasonable to assume that KG's argument for grading out better much of the time would be due to his defense being better, not his offense. The 17-21 Giannis sample includes pre-prime seasons, however, KG has several samples above that I included, that involve pre and post-prime years.
khaltheball wrote:Out of curiosity how would people compare these two to peak AD. Obv he’s had injury plagued seasons but to me at his best AD is a better defender then Giannis at his best . AD is better on switches and guarding 1 on 1, and a better primary rim protector : which imo outweighs Giannis slightly better roaming/help defence . AD with a centre like Lopez and Jrue on the perimeter woukd perform just as well as Giannis if not tiny bit better imo.
Kg to me is more well rounded and a better Swuss army knife so I’m gonna say kg> Giannis . If. AD can continue with to play at his potential I might pick him over both filling a similar role .