NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (pt 3)

Wolfgang630 · Post #1581 » by **Wolfgang630** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 2:32 pm

Advance stats shows he’s a top 5 player (in his era) which he is. History is going to show it. He can only do so much when his team has injuries in the playoffs. Kind of hard for a single player to beat teams of stars nowadays. I mean it’s already RARE to do that in nba history.

nikster · Post #1582 » by **nikster** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 3:04 pm

eyeatoma wrote:
nikster wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:

Asterisk MVPs that's all. Just like the asterisk chip the Lakers won in the bubble, and the asterisk chip the Raptors won with Kawhi, when KD and Klay went down. History will remember that's all.

So nothing of significance. History will remember that he outplayed embiid in 3 straight seasons

No, history will remember that they tried to anoint him as the next GOAT, with middling playoff success. History will remember that although advanced stats have their place in the NBA its not the end all and be all of determining who the best is. Jokic will be a cautionary tale for future voters, on how not to vote for an MVP.

History will remember he was the best regular season player for 3 straight years. They will remember he was as undermanned as it gets for 2 of the years in the playoffs, we will see what happens this year.

You think History will look back and think we should have been voting a player like Embiid who has no playoff success and was objectively worse during the season?

Statlanta · Post #1583 » by **Statlanta** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 3:09 pm

History will remember all the stars that load managed, injured themselves and blamed the Pandemic for misfortune during this COVID era while Jokic kept playing, got hosed by the refs(2020 WCF) and posted legendary stats.

Exp0sed · Post #1584 » by **Exp0sed** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 4:59 pm

nikster wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:
nikster wrote:So nothing of significance. History will remember that he outplayed embiid in 3 straight seasons

No, history will remember that they tried to anoint him as the next GOAT, with middling playoff success. History will remember that although advanced stats have their place in the NBA its not the end all and be all of determining who the best is. Jokic will be a cautionary tale for future voters, on how not to vote for an MVP.

History will remember he was the best regular season player for 3 straight years. They will remember he was as undermanned as it gets for 2 of the years in the playoffs, we will see what happens this year.

You think History will look back and think we should have been voting a player like Embiid who has no playoff success and was objectively worse during the season?

exactly

he's played the hand he was dealt in the best possible way
History will remember well that he played with Barton, Morris, Rivers and Campazzo vs eventual champions and finalists

if indeed he will fail to achieve actual postseason success throughout his career (unlikely but certainly still possible for a myriad of reasons mostly luck\circumestence) then history will remember him differently

but no1, not now and not in the future will think Embiid should have won it
Embiid who was clearly worse AND played alot less games in each of the last 3 seasons
Embiid whose had ATG teammates in Butler and Harden and multiple all-stars as well and failed to reach even a conf finals

perhaps, if Giannis continues his form and winning ways - that argument will be made about him someday

that is - Giannis should have won that MVP, but even that is a huge stretch as MVP is a regular season award
I think there are alot of folks in the world who think Giannis is the best player in the league AND that Jokic has been the rightful MVP
these last two seasons and the current one

the two aren't mutually exclusive
Giannis hasn't played the same amount of games and just hasn't been as good even per game (in either of the seasons)

if he has a better team around him and \ or he is able to sustain that play (on both ends) in the playoffs where Jokic can't - it still doesn't really matter to the MVP discussion

and again, i'm not saying Jokic can't. in fact his playoff form so far in his career, with what he had to play with and who he faced - bodes pretty well for future success

but if when it's all said and done he will fail to do so, ppl still recognize he was the most dominant player during that 3 year RS stretch and the most valuable to his team

and while some may quibble in the future about Giannis, not one person will ever do so regarding Embiid just like no1 does today about Ewing

dygaction · Post #1585 » by **dygaction** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 5:40 pm

eyeatoma wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:

Asterisk MVPs that's all. Just like the asterisk chip the Lakers won in the bubble, and the asterisk chip the Raptors won with Kawhi, when KD and Klay went down. History will remember that's all.

Lebron won his first championship the same year he won his third MVP. Did you asterisk those original MVP’s??

Moses Malone was the same.

Plenty of guys with MVPs and no championship. Nash, Barkley, Rose, Westbrook, Harden. Do we asterisks all them as well?
They didn't win 3 in a row. You keep ignoring this. In a row is the issue. Back to back to back. That is unprecedented. Also LeBron was the heir apparent. Basically the incoming goat. He had his team in the finals. There was also no other player really playing close to him.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

It was because LeBron did not deserve to win three in a row. The Heat formed big 3 but they won less games than the Bulls, whose only star was Rose.

Johnny Firpo · Post #1586 » by **Johnny Firpo** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 5:59 pm

dygaction wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
Lebron won his first championship the same year he won his third MVP. Did you asterisk those original MVP’s??

Moses Malone was the same.

Plenty of guys with MVPs and no championship. Nash, Barkley, Rose, Westbrook, Harden. Do we asterisks all them as well?
They didn't win 3 in a row. You keep ignoring this. In a row is the issue. Back to back to back. That is unprecedented. Also LeBron was the heir apparent. Basically the incoming goat. He had his team in the finals. There was also no other player really playing close to him.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

It was because LeBron did not deserve to win three in a row. The Heat formed big 3 but they won less games than the Bulls, whose only star was Rose.

He also didn't dominate statistically that year, they basically had the same average with Wade and was 3rd in RPM. 25/6/5 average from Wade on 58%TS, and 26/6/7 from LeBron on 59%TS. When LeBron jumped another level in 2011/2012, and 2012/2013 (best box score and advanced stats of his career), guess what happened? He won MVP in both years. All of that is true for Jokic. He jumped another level, and has what is likely the best individual regular season of his career, which happens to be the GOAT offensive regular season, by a pretty decent margin, I add. Guess what will happen? He will likely win it. Pretty logical to be honest.

Chessboxer · Post #1587 » by **Chessboxer** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 7:28 pm

eyeatoma wrote:Stat padding at it's finest.

Read on Twitter

In all fairness, Giannis probably knows a triple double is the only way you will get consideration for MVP these days. :lol:

BoatsNZones · Post #1588 » by **BoatsNZones** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 8:42 pm

BBREF has Jokic at a >70% probability (essentially based on historical precedent via team record and his stats) to win it, with a clump of players at 7% and less. Meaning their data set sees no other candidate for the award. That tells you all you need to know about this debate.

I am all about having elaborate discussions for MVP (it’s just fun), but the guy is averaging a 25 point triple double on a 70% TS from the center position for the runaway 1 seed. He took away our ability to have a debate on the matter, regardless of what the talking heads are trying to convince us otherwise of because they know this talk is good for their ratings.

We are late enough in the season that if he doesn’t win it, it will be because of narrative and bias. Period. He’s going to win it though. We saw as much in the most recent straw poll.

csh 19792001 · Post #1589 » by **csh 19792001** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 9:06 pm

BoatsNZones wrote:BBREF has Jokic at a >70% probability (essentially based on historical precedent via team record and his stats) to win it, with a clump of players at 7% and less. Meaning their data set sees no other candidate for the award. That tells you all you need to know about this debate.

I am all about having elaborate discussions for MVP (it’s just fun), but the guy is averaging a 25 point triple double on a 70% TS from the center position for the runaway 1 seed. He took away our ability to have a debate on the matter, regardless of what the talking heads are trying to convince us otherwise of because they know this talk is good for their ratings.

We are late enough in the season that if he doesn’t win it, it will be because of narrative and bias. Period.

Exactly.

There is and should be zero debate as of today who the best player in the NBA is this year.

NBA MVP Odds Today (Draftkings):
Jokic: -400 (bet $20 to win $5.56)
Embiid: +550
Giannis: +650
Tatum: +1800
Doncic: +2200

csh 19792001 · Post #1590 » by **csh 19792001** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 9:18 pm

AleksandarN wrote: Also shooting 60 40 80 at over 24pts per game is rare indeed.

Rare? it's never happened before in NBA history. Not even remotely close.

60/35/75 on 24 pts has never even happened.

Jokic is having the greatest offensive season in NBA history.

BoatsNZones · Post #1591 » by **BoatsNZones** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 9:31 pm

csh 19792001 wrote:
AleksandarN wrote: Also shooting 60 40 80 at over 24pts per game is rare indeed.

Rare? it's never happened before in NBA history. Not even remotely close.

60/35/75 on 24 pts has never even happened.

Jokic is having the greatest offensive season in NBA history.

That’s a more interesting debate to me. I wouldn’t necessarily agree simply because it’s not like we can compare the stats of this current season to those in the past. Both the volume and efficiency is unprecedented from the league as a whole. Talking about a season that has already SHATTERED the amount of 40+ point games by players in a season, and we still have 20% of the season to go.

There’s actually some stats that would lean on Lillard having an as good or better statistical season offensively right now as well. As great as he has been, I think that in general it would be tough to argue the guy who is 20th in the league in PPG as having the best offensive season in history. The volume just isn’t there.

Regardless, that’s a debate we should be having.

jokeboy86 · Post #1592 » by **jokeboy86** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 9:35 pm

csh 19792001 wrote:
AleksandarN wrote: Also shooting 60 40 80 at over 24pts per game is rare indeed.

Rare? it's never happened before in NBA history. Not even remotely close.

60/35/75 on 24 pts has never even happened.

Jokic is having the greatest offensive season in NBA history.

I mean at this point the only thing I've heard talking heads say is "he shouldn't be a 3x in a row winner with no ring" or "he shouldn't have won it one of the previous two seasons". I've yet to hear any of them actually address the numbers he's putting up this year even the casual/simple ones which they pay attention to. And now the Nuggets are a game out of the league's best record. If the Bucks start resting Giannis toward the end(which they should to protect him from himself), ditto with the Sixers and Embiid and Boston can't get out of this funk I think this race could be over.

Exp0sed · Post #1593 » by **Exp0sed** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 10:41 pm

BoatsNZones wrote:
csh 19792001 wrote:
AleksandarN wrote: Also shooting 60 40 80 at over 24pts per game is rare indeed.

Rare? it's never happened before in NBA history. Not even remotely close.

60/35/75 on 24 pts has never even happened.

Jokic is having the greatest offensive season in NBA history.

That’s a more interesting debate to me. I wouldn’t necessarily agree simply because it’s not like we can compare the stats of this current season to those in the past. Both the volume and efficiency is unprecedented from the league as a whole. Talking about a season that has already SHATTERED the amount of 40+ point games by players in a season, and we still have 20% of the season to go.

There’s actually some stats that would lean on Lillard having an as good or better statistical season offensively right now as well. As great as he has been, I think that in general it would be tough to argue the guy who is 20th in the league in PPG as having the best offensive season in history. The volume just isn’t there.

Regardless, that’s a debate we should be having.

both the bolded statement should be combined:
Jokic is having the best offensive season ever + in a record breaking season for the league as a whole
and it's obviously not some coincidence, the two are causally related and both are inflated

thus we need to compensate for this overall inflation when examining his individual season (or of other players who are having ridicilous offensive seasons)

fwiw i'm not saying he is having the bes offensive season ever because of this crazy inflation

but it's up there, he's doing something very special and he's doing it in an extremely consistent manner

chudak · Post #1594 » by **chudak** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 1:49 am

jokeboy86 wrote:
csh 19792001 wrote:
AleksandarN wrote: Also shooting 60 40 80 at over 24pts per game is rare indeed.

Rare? it's never happened before in NBA history. Not even remotely close.

60/35/75 on 24 pts has never even happened.

Jokic is having the greatest offensive season in NBA history.

I mean at this point the only thing I've heard talking heads say is "he shouldn't be a 3x in a row winner with no ring" or "he shouldn't have won it one of the previous two seasons". I've yet to hear any of them actually address the numbers he's putting up this year even the casual/simple ones which they pay attention to. And now the Nuggets are a game out of the league's best record. If the Bucks start resting Giannis toward the end(which they should to protect him from himself), ditto with the Sixers and Embiid and Boston can't get out of this funk I think this race could be over.

Yes, its a weird argument.

"he should not get it because only 3 players have it"

They should give this seasons MVP to Michael Jordan than

Cubbies2120 · Post #1595 » by **Cubbies2120** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 1:56 am

eyeatoma wrote:
Sharkboy242 wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:
If you're a 3 time MVP, and are have "statistically the greatest 3 seasons of all time" you need to be making the finals and winning chips. If you're team is good enough to win games in the regular season, they need to be just as good in the playoffs. No excuses.

Or else what? People on forums are going to talk badly about you? Or the media talking heads are going to call you a privileged stat padder?

Oh wait those things are already happening. So what’s going to happen now, what treachery awaits our dear hero Jokic?

It puts a tear in my eye just thinking about the mean things eyetoma and others are going to say if Jokic wins his 3rd MVP and doesnt win a championship. Maybe if they cry loudly enough the NBA can have award rescinded

Asterisk MVPs that's all. Just like the asterisk chip the Lakers won in the bubble, and the asterisk chip the Raptors won with Kawhi, when KD and Klay went down. History will remember that's all.

If he wins a few rings in his career, and wins FMVP with them, nobody will care if he didn't win a ring in his 3rd straight MVP year.

All they're gonna look at is his resume at the end of the year.

Asterisks can apply to a lot of seasons in NBA history...probably more asterisks than not.

chudak · Post #1596 » by **chudak** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 1:56 am

BoatsNZones wrote:
csh 19792001 wrote:
AleksandarN wrote: Also shooting 60 40 80 at over 24pts per game is rare indeed.

Rare? it's never happened before in NBA history. Not even remotely close.

60/35/75 on 24 pts has never even happened.

Jokic is having the greatest offensive season in NBA history.

That’s a more interesting debate to me. I wouldn’t necessarily agree simply because it’s not like we can compare the stats of this current season to those in the past. Both the volume and efficiency is unprecedented from the league as a whole. Talking about a season that has already SHATTERED the amount of 40+ point games by players in a season, and we still have 20% of the season to go.

There’s actually some stats that would lean on Lillard having an as good or better statistical season offensively right now as well. As great as he has been, I think that in general it would be tough to argue the guy who is 20th in the league in PPG as having the best offensive season in history. The volume just isn’t there.

Regardless, that’s a debate we should be having.

Offense is not just PPG though.

In regards to Lillard - which stats are those except he has more PPG on great TS% (but less than Jokic)?
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/advancedstats/_/id/3112335/nikola-jokic
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/advancedstats/_/id/6606/damian-lillard

BoatsNZones · Post #1597 » by **BoatsNZones** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 2:29 am

chudak wrote:
BoatsNZones wrote:
csh 19792001 wrote:
Rare? it's never happened before in NBA history. Not even remotely close.

60/35/75 on 24 pts has never even happened.

Jokic is having the greatest offensive season in NBA history.

That’s a more interesting debate to me. I wouldn’t necessarily agree simply because it’s not like we can compare the stats of this current season to those in the past. Both the volume and efficiency is unprecedented from the league as a whole. Talking about a season that has already SHATTERED the amount of 40+ point games by players in a season, and we still have 20% of the season to go.

There’s actually some stats that would lean on Lillard having an as good or better statistical season offensively right now as well. As great as he has been, I think that in general it would be tough to argue the guy who is 20th in the league in PPG as having the best offensive season in history. The volume just isn’t there.

Regardless, that’s a debate we should be having.

Offense is not just PPG though.

In regards to Lillard - which stats are those except he has more PPG on great TS% (but less than Jokic)?
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/advancedstats/_/id/3112335/nikola-jokic
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/advancedstats/_/id/6606/damian-lillard

No, it's not. But it matters quite a bit, and it's a significant difference (25%). Jokic is averaging 2.9 more assists, but on a much higher turnover% (11.4 to 16.9). Jokic does have a decent TS% advantage despite Dame's also being highly elite.

The PM stats are mostly what I'm talking about. ORPM heavily favors Lillard (#1 at 8.25 to #6 at 5.13 for Jokic). OBPM is effectively the same (about tied for 1st). Offensive EPM (arguably the best version imo) favors Lillard #1 over Jokic (8.4 to 7.9). Offensive Raptor has it 1/2 slightly in Jokic's favor (10.2 to 9.8).

Basically, it's extremely close and debatable who has been statistically better on O (there are certainly other stats that favor Jokic as well). But the overall difference in advanced stats between Jokic and Lillard/everyone else stems from the fact that many advanced stats perceive him as a God tier defender, which is strange.

All things considered, he's very clearly the MVP though. That's not my point here.

Exp0sed · Post #1598 » by **Exp0sed** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 2:55 am

srry wrong thread, delete plz

HotRocks34 · Post #1599 » by **HotRocks34** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 3:08 am

Embiid hanging in. Tatum fading.

Mickey8 · Post #1600 » by **Mickey8** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 3:54 am

At this point, anyone but Jokic. This season he really don't deserve it, the last two he rightfully won it.

Who is leading the MVP race? (listed alphabetically)