How good of a ft shooter would Shaq need to be in order to be the goat for you?

[Cavsfansince84]

Caveat being we aren't going to add any rings and just 1 mvp in 01 if you feel like it. Keeping in mind of course that this likely greatly impacts his metrics and things like career scoring. His actual career ft % was .527 for reference.

[No-more-rings]

I’m not really sure why we’re assuming he’s the automatic goat with better free throw shooting. He may be the “offensive” goat in this scenario, but even that’s not guaranteed. I’m not comfortable saying he’d have the better overall career than Lebron, Jordan, Kareem even in this scenario.

[Cavsfansince84]

I’m not really sure why we’re assuming he’s the automatic goat with better free throw shooting. He may be the “offensive” goat in this scenario, but even that’s not guaranteed. I’m not comfortable saying he’d have the better overall career than Lebron, Jordan, Kareem even in this scenario.

Nothing is being assumed in this thread which is why there's a 'he would never be my goat' voting option. It doesn't seem like that much of a stretch though that a guy who won 4 rings and is widely considered a top 8 player of all time while being a horrible ft shooter could become the goat if he'd been a far better one.

[rk2023]

Like many other contexts, this represents a trade-off. There are two main opportunity costs I could think of.

1. If teams are less reliant on "Hack-A-Shaq" due to the greater theoretical efficacy of FT shooting, thus giving him a lesser FTR, how much would this value reasonably decrease by and how much would his FG% increase/sustain with more shots taken. There very well could be a world where he is flirting closer to +10 rTS / 120 TS+ scoring. If that's the case, do defenses key in on this threat and force Shaq to play-make more? This one is a little hard for me to answer straight forwardly.

2. Due to fouling less often and having to prioritize big-man depth &/or alter player rotations less so as a direct result, how much team efficacy (of-course measured by defensive rating) do teams gain back from playing better pieces more often presumably.

This is how I'm guessing whether he'd gain, lose, or maintain offensive value throughout his peak years and even surrounding ones. Assuming we are holding defense equal, I don't see him gaining too much traction to be closer to GOAT-status (motor and availability are far more a missing piece than his FT shooting). That said, I think he marginally becomes better on offense which is more likely to get him 5th? or so from a career standpoint.

[OhayoKD]

Peak/prime issue is defense so you''d need to make him the clear "best offensive player ever" for him to be the best, "at his best". Longetvity gap with lebron/kareem isn't really going away whatever you do here.

But give him 90% FT and he has a reasonable peak argument I guess.

[Cavsfansince84]

Like many other contexts, this represents a trade-off. There are two main opportunity costs I could think of.

1. If teams are less reliant on "Hack-A-Shaq" due to the greater theoretical efficacy of FT shooting, thus giving him a lesser FTR, how much would this value reasonably decrease by and how much would his FG% increase/sustain with more shots taken. There very well could be a world where he is flirting closer to +10 rTS / 120 TS+ scoring. If that's the case, do defenses key in on this threat and force Shaq to play-make more? This one is a little hard for me to answer straight forwardly.

2. Due to fouling less often and having to prioritize big-man depth &/or alter player rotations less so as a direct result, how much team efficacy (of-course measured by defensive rating) do teams gain back from playing better pieces more often presumably.

This is how I'm guessing whether he'd gain, lose, or maintain offensive value throughout his peak years and even surrounding ones. Assuming we are holding defense equal, I don't see him gaining too much traction to be closer to GOAT-status (motor and availability are far more a missing piece than his FT shooting). That said, I think he marginally becomes better on offense which is more likely to get him 5th? or so from a career standpoint.

Let me say that I think regarding point 1 that his overall off value goes up a lot because usually teams were fouling when he was near the basket and I'd say taking a shot which would be even higher % than his usual 60% that he had during his prime years. So he was basically trading a 70-80% shot if not a dunk imo for his career 53% for taking fts. I don't think point 2 really matters much tbh. I think that's semi overblown in terms of teams just playing an extra big maybe to use as a foul machine when they played the Lakers. So while his ftr no doubt goes down in his prime years I think his overall fg% tracks up.

[Cavsfansince84]

Peak/prime issue is defense so you''d need to make him the clear "best offensive player ever" for him to be the best, "at his best". Longetvity gap with lebron/kareem isn't really going away whatever you do here.

But give him 90% FT and he has a reasonable peak argument I guess.

While I agree that his defense is definitely a weakness when compared to other atg big men I'm not so sure he necessarily needs to be viewed as 'the best offensive player ever' in order to compensate but just to show how his ft% could theoretically change his career ts add if it were 75% he would go from a career 2758 ts add to 5203 and I think Kareem is currently first all time at this stat with a 4719. Now I know people will say that his ftr will go down by virtue of improving his ft% but I think that is almost off set by them letting him shoot it inside of 3 ft rather than just auto fouling. As in I think the shots he was being robbed of were better shots than he was taking most often. The idea was that if he got an entry pass within 4 ft you just foul as soon as he gets it or if he gets an off rebound.

[coastalmarker99]

Another good question.

Is how good of a foul shooter would Wilt need to be the goat?

My thinking is about 80 to 85%

With 85% he is now apart of the 35k club with Malone and Kareem and LeBron despite playing way fewer games.


His scoring average would go from 30PPG for his career now to 33 PPG.

[Cavsfansince84]

Another good question.

Is how good of a foul shooter would Wilt need to be the goat?

My thinking is about 80 to 85%

Dude, obviously this could apply to Wilt as well but this is specifically about Shaq.

[coastalmarker99]

Another good question.

Is how good of a foul shooter would Wilt need to be the goat?

My thinking is about 80 to 85%

Dude, obviously this could apply to Wilt as well but this is specifically about Shaq.

Specifically about Shaq I say about 80% as there would have been zero ways to stop him.

Shaq would have averaged 33/14/4 during his highest scoring season if he was an 80% free throw shooter. In an era where most games were in the low 90’s scoring wise. That would have been insane.

[AEnigma]

Casting aside that improved free throw shooting should affect Shaq’s game in other areas…

1. By a legacy/rings element, it would need to be at near impossible levels to realistically swing any of the series he lost. Anyone going for total “winning” impact still should be starting with Russell.

2. For cumulative career value, it would also need to be at absurd levels (85% <) to catch Lebron with a regular season deficit of 12K minutes (and counting). You would essentially need to make Shaq like 30% more valuable to even start having that discussion, because Lebron’s best 42K minutes already top Shaq’s even before you get into that massive longevity disparity.

3. However, for those who value peak/prime above all else, 80% free throw Shaq likely does establish a firm advantage over anyone, because those value swings compound during Shaq’s highest free throw and best defensive seasons. Lebron is the impact king, but prime Shaq can cross that mark if you give him enough free points, and 80% seems like it would be enough after running some back-of-the-napkin math.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Well if we are talking for peaks, Ben Taylor hypothesized, if Shaq could shoot freethrows at a 70% clip, he would be the GOAT offensive player (back in 2018).

He wrote, " If Shaq could have made free throws, he’d be the greatest offensive player ever. Consider that at a 70 percent rate, his 2000 season would have been worth nearly 2 more points per game, and at 80 percent, nearly 3 additional points per game" - https://thinkingbasketball.net/2018/03/29/backpicks-goat-5-shaquille-oneal/

That would be a good starting point for making your opinion on the topic. I think a lot of people would have him be more in the GOAT convo if they considered him a GOAT-esque offensive player, instead of just an all-time one.

[Jaivl]

He wrote, " If Shaq could have made free throws, he’d be the greatest offensive player ever. Consider that at a 70 percent rate, his 2000 season would have been worth nearly 2 more points per game, and at 80 percent, nearly 3 additional points per game" - https://thinkingbasketball.net/2018/03/29/backpicks-goat-5-shaquille-oneal/

I mean, we can all agree that that's not how it works, right? He's not shooting 13 free throws per game if he could convert at 80%.

[rand]

During Shaq's extended prime (1995-2004), he averaged 7.9 FTM out of 14.9 FTAs (per 100 possessions). At 85%, those made FTs jump up to 12.7. An usage-free 4.8 PP100 boost results in a BPM boost of around +4, putting prime Shaq's BPM into Jordan/LeBron territory. Shaq's OBPM would crush either Jordan or LeBron, even beat Jokic's MVP seasons.

Of course, increasing Shaq's FT% by a large amount would probably have changed the way defenses played Shaq such that simply plugging in the higher FT% isn't completely valid but it shows the analytic magnitude of bumping Shaq's FT% by such large margins.

[OhayoKD]

During Shaq's extended prime (1995-2004), he averaged 7.9 FTM out of 14.9 FTAs (per 100 possessions). At 85%, those made FTs jump up to 12.7. An usage-free 4.8 PPG boost results in a BPM boost of around +4, putting prime Shaq's BPM into Jordan/LeBron territory. Shaq's OBPM would crush either Jordan or LeBron, even beat Jokic's MVP seasons.

Of course, increasing Shaq's FT% by a large amount would probably have changed the way defenses played Shaq such that simply plugging in the higher FT% isn't completely valid but it shows the analytic magnitude of bumping Shaq's FT% by such large margins.

Worth noting BPM probably inflates steal-accumulators. Though it's also not penalizing Shaq for all the times he's blown by or misses help rotations...

[colts18]

During Shaq's extended prime (1995-2004), he averaged 7.9 FTM out of 14.9 FTAs (per 100 possessions). At 85%, those made FTs jump up to 12.7. An usage-free 4.8 PPG boost results in a BPM boost of around +4, putting prime Shaq's BPM into Jordan/LeBron territory. Shaq's OBPM would crush either Jordan or LeBron, even beat Jokic's MVP seasons.

Of course, increasing Shaq's FT% by a large amount would probably have changed the way defenses played Shaq such that simply plugging in the higher FT% isn't completely valid but it shows the analytic magnitude of bumping Shaq's FT% by such large margins.

Worth noting BPM probably inflates steal-accumulators. Though it's also not penalizing Shaq for all the times he's blown by or misses help rotations...

BPM does not inflate Steals. All stats have shown that Steals are an extremely valuable play and a valuable indicator of great players. Steals are the best player a defense can make. Not Blocks, not Rim Protections. Steals are. A Steal guarantees a defensive possession will allow zero points and it ensures the offense gains an advantage in transition.

If you want proof that Steals are valuable, look at the leaderboard for most steals all-time.

1. John Stockton* 3265
2. Jason Kidd* 2684
3. Chris Paul 2521
4. Michael Jordan* 2514
5. Gary Payton* 2445
6. Maurice Cheeks* 2310
7. Scottie Pippen* 2307
8. Clyde Drexler* 2207
9. LeBron James 2180
10. Hakeem Olajuwon* 2162

Every single one of those players are a Hall of Famer. A combined 100 All-star games and 71 All-Defensive teams for those 10 players. Every single player on this list is known for being a great defender. Clyde Drexler is the only player on the list who doesn't have at minimum 5 All-Defensive teams.

[AEnigma]

Do not conflate the correlation of steals to good players and teams with the absolute value of pursuing steals by themselves.

[FuShengTHEGreat]

Even with above average FT shooting he wouldn't be the GOAT C.

I won't forget how aging Utah ran circles around his lackadaisical defense in both 97 and 98. In 1998 he didn't even compete at all on defense.

One of the most embarrassing lopsided losses I've ever seen a team suffer. And although the Lakers as a whole shot poorly outside of Shaq.....he deserves just as much blame for them losing for being non existent on the boards and also shotblocking.

The FAR and away best Center in the league that season could only muster 9rpg and 4 total blocks?

[Ein Sof]

Do not conflate the correlation of steals to good players and teams with the absolute value of pursuing steals by themselves.

Nah, you can just gamble to pad steals and it's gonna be fine.

It's like how Westbrick winning 70% of his triple double games meant 10 rebounds and 10 assists are intrinsically better than 11 & 9.

[dygaction]

70% Shaq would need the history to be revisited as hack a shaq would not have worked