Where would Luka rank in the 90’s?

[mysticOscar]

How are we changing from "no more than 5 drives" to "not top 5 players"? Luka would be top 5 in almost each and every year, just like he has been now in a more talented league.

Think about whether Anfernee Hardway of similar size or Grant Hill had problems driving or scoring. Luka is better than them almost in each and every category as an offensive player. 1997 Hill had 21.4/9.0/7.3 and #3 in MVP voting.

Also you are not going to take away his strength. He would be even an outlier combining the skills and size - scoring enhanced and passing reduced Magic. The whole NBA is designed towards stopping great wing players like LeBron, KD, and Kawhi. Luka has faced great wing defense, including Kawhi/PG13/Bridges in playoffs. When we talk about Jordan's best defenders, Joe Dumars and Payton are the top 2 mentioned. Are they really going to ask them guard Luka? Also, different from AI, Tim Hardaway... Luka not only finish under the basket at a much higher rate, but also a far better shooter from anywhere. His back to the basket and great mid-range .495 (3-10ft) and .461(10-16) are also an outlier in 90s.

If you are going to rattle stats across eras without acknowledging era differences then our understanding or opinions is just too big to really get anywhere.

It's laughable to me that your spitting out perimeter defenders as if that's what would trouble perimeter players the most, in particular the players that like to drive....vs a crowded paint with big men standing in the paint, I mean I don't know what to say.

Its funny how we just say Luka by default is a better player in the 90s than Grant Hill and Anfernee...based on what? That he can drive 20+,a game today? That he can spam more 3s today? That he plays a system that he does everything for a teams offense today?

Anfernee and Hill were good drivers in their own right and good passers, had good post games and were good finishers under the basket in a crowded paint environment.

So I don't know why people are quick to assume Luka by default is better than these 2.

What? because Luka is playing in an era and in a system that allows him to showcase and maximises his output compared to what Anfernee and Grant had?

Thats just short sighted.

I would put Luka in the same category as those 2.

But in terms of top 5, I meant like 90s in general...I wouldn't take Luka above MJ, Shaq, Olajuwon, Barkley, Robinson or Malone.

Just like I wouldn't take any version of Anfernee or Grant Hill above these in any year in a 90s environment.

Ok, seems you want to double down on that 5 drives or shifting the goal post instead of admitting 5 fga per game... That's fine with me. I hope you understand Pippen, Hill, or random cat and dog that dribbles well may average 5 drives per game.

I have clearly said 5 drive attempts not 5 fga from drives. If you don't believe my opinion that's fine.

I'll reinstate my opinion again so you don't get confused and it's clear....I believe if we teleport Luka to the 90s he would be lucky to be averaging over 5 drives a game.

Perhaps if he was in the system that will allow it, then yes, he may be over 5 attempts...but odds are he will be shifting from distributing from the perimeter and working on the post rather than spamming on his drives.

You need to understand the game in the 90s is very different...Paytons / MJs fga on drives won't even be in the top 70 today....and for players that are top 70 in drive attempts today are around 7/8 drive attempts. Thats how much I estimate the top drivers in the 90s would be like...7-8 attempts

[mysticOscar]

How are we changing from "no more than 5 drives" to "not top 5 players"? Luka would be top 5 in almost each and every year, just like he has been now in a more talented league.

Think about whether Anfernee Hardway of similar size or Grant Hill had problems driving or scoring. Luka is better than them almost in each and every category as an offensive player. 1997 Hill had 21.4/9.0/7.3 and #3 in MVP voting.

Also you are not going to take away his strength. He would be even an outlier combining the skills and size - scoring enhanced and passing reduced Magic. The whole NBA is designed towards stopping great wing players like LeBron, KD, and Kawhi. Luka has faced great wing defense, including Kawhi/PG13/Bridges in playoffs. When we talk about Jordan's best defenders, Joe Dumars and Payton are the top 2 mentioned. Are they really going to ask them guard Luka? Also, different from AI, Tim Hardaway... Luka not only finish under the basket at a much higher rate, but also a far better shooter from anywhere. His back to the basket and great mid-range .495 (3-10ft) and .461(10-16) are also an outlier in 90s.

If you are going to rattle stats across eras without acknowledging era differences then our understanding or opinions is just too big to really get anywhere.

It's laughable to me that your spitting out perimeter defenders as if that's what would trouble perimeter players the most, in particular the players that like to drive....vs a crowded paint with big men standing in the paint, I mean I don't know what to say.

Its funny how we just say Luka by default is a better player in the 90s than Grant Hill and Anfernee...based on what? That he can drive 20+,a game today? That he can spam more 3s today? That he plays a system that he does everything for a teams offense today?

Anfernee and Hill were good drivers in their own right and good passers, had good post games and were good finishers under the basket in a crowded paint environment.

So I don't know why people are quick to assume Luka by default is better than these 2.

What? because Luka is playing in an era and in a system that allows him to showcase and maximises his output compared to what Anfernee and Grant had?

Thats just short sighted.

I would put Luka in the same category as those 2.

But in terms of top 5, I meant like 90s in general...I wouldn't take Luka above MJ, Shaq, Olajuwon, Barkley, Robinson or Malone.

Just like I wouldn't take any version of Anfernee or Grant Hill above these in any year in a 90s environment.

Casting aside the bigs because we are talking wings and guards here. Those are Luka’s competition, not some nebulous idea of how he compares to lead scoring defensive anchors.

“Luka is not a small and fast guard” is not a specific or developed criticism. It is arguably not even relevant unless your point is the only way to generate offence in the 1990s was to be small and/or fast. Is Luka a better shooter than basically every lead guard in that era? Yes. So automatically we are starting with a sizeable advantage. No other guard shy of Jordan or maaaybe late career Mitch Richmond would have the same scoring gravity, nor are any as reliable as scorers across the court. That is a massive boon to his ability to create even if he struggles more to drive. And if you want to argue that volume works against him, then you need to make that argument and challenge the efficiency of his own scorer and the looks he would create for others at volume no other passer approached.

Next, is he a better finisher? Well, you have suggested that his elite finishing today would not translate because in a more crowded paint, his strength would… represent a relative disadvantage? He lacks top end speed, yes, but that takes us back to whether you are sincerely arguing that is the only way to be a successful finisher in the 1990s. For me, the gold standards were Gary Payton, Penny Hardaway, and Charles Barkley. Payton and Barkley loved to use their strength to back people down — just as Luka does. So be specific: what exactly are Luka’s comparative limitations there? What exactly is the hit you project he takes, and how much does that lower him relative to competition at the time?

You characteristically said you do not think it is a given that Luka is a better passer than Penny or Hill. Here too, be specific: what exactly are Luka’s shortcomings in his vision, his setup, his accuracy, his touch, his speed, etc. It is not enough to just shrug and say, “Ah, well, they are all good, and Luka had more opportunities to showcase certain skills so that somehow means we should assume they would be just as capable if given those opportunities.”

We are not comparing Luka with himself; we are comparing him with his competition. Despite what several people have now claimed, I have yet to see a sincere comparative approach between Luka and any other lead playmakers. Saying he loses effectiveness if he cannot pass to shooters is not a comparative argument for offensive value, nor is the (tenuous) claim that he would have his ability to drive completely taken away from him. Luka can lose a lot of modern advantages, and it means nothing if losing those does not rationally make him less effective than his rival playmakers. Pick and rolls existed in the 1990s. Bad shots were taken regularly by pretty much every offence. Today, support players do in fact do more than camp on the perimetre. You do in fact still see multiple people occupy the paint and jostle for scoring position. And if people think the level of star offence in the 1990s was beyond Luka’s capacity, then we have a serious problem with eyetests. Because how are we supposed to take anyone seriously on “era differences” when the premise seems to be that Luka’s entire game is drive into an uncontested paint and either go for an easy scoring attempt or kick out to a lightly contested three.

Because the major era difference between the 90s and today is the offense today is predicated on the threat of the drive whereas in the 90s, it was dependant on post position.

I see Lukas game and it highly is centred on the threat of the drive and open space. That means his the type of person who needs the ball at the top of the arc to get his scoring going.

I don't see enough to know that his catch and sh
oot game is really like from kick out of the post and his volume on post ups are quite small (but I think he will be okay in this department).

He is a very crafty player who can pass really well so I think he will be a star....but I don't see anything in his arsenal that will make him standout above some of the post behemoths in that era.

I feel posters here just default to "hey his getting the stats today so he will also stand out then!"....but I see a very good player whose in an era and a system that showcases and maximises his production.

[mysticOscar]

I'd like to see these numbers.

I am aware that teams drive significantly more now than in 2014, but I don't think there is a comparable difference between 1990s and 2014. 2014 was before shooting revolution, teams still played two bigs lineups and they didn't shoot that many threes. I can buy the idea that there were less drives in the 1990s than in 2014, but not over twice as few.

We don't have tracking data for those years but we get signals of estimates.

Someone replied to me to disparage MJ with these stats based on fga / gm on drives for MJ in 90-92 and '97. Not sure what they're source was but I didn't have any reason to doubt his source

Code: Select all

Field goal attempts generated from drives
                Gms   FGA   FGA/gm
Jordan'90-92    126   405     3.2
Payton'97        82   306     3.7
Jordan'97        82    64     0.8


Those numbers look like exactly what I expected and based on the number of fga...his drives would be around 5-7 drive attempts a game (generally MJ would take a higher % of fga than a typical pg on drives) and that's prime MJ.

The open space in paint 2014 vs 1990s was already very apparant and open the topic of how open it was compared to previous era was already a main topic at the time and teams implementing systems to incorporate the threat of the drive was already in full play.


Not sure why you dont think there is a massive difference in 2014 vs early to mid 90s. Everything from usage moving towards perimeter, offensive rebounds, 3PA etc.

Remember that rules were also implemented.in 2001 amd 2005.that enabled and encourages perimeter drives which teams had 10 years to take advantage of by the time 2014 came.

I mean outside of the shortened 3pt line, the 3PA were around 10 a game to essentially 20 a game.

If you can't be convinced because "no direct data" and are not persuaded by the conclusion based on other clear signals....then just require to watch a handful of Bulls games in 90s and observe MJ drive attempts to realise he doesnt take that many...not much more than 5-7 a game. Infact no one really did back then.

I think these numbers are from Dipper's tracking data, though I didn't check it out.

Assuming they are correct, then 1990-92 Jordan averaged 3.2 FGA from drives. If we assume similar FGA/drive ratio to other big, high level scorers with elite creation skills like Harden or James from 2014, that would give him around 8-9 drives per game. Given that Jordan was a high volume creator, I don't think these numbers highly overstate his driving volume. That's already way more than 5 per game.

Moreover, if we take 1997 Payton with 3.7 FGA, that woule give him around 10 drives per game... but Payton was more pass-first player, so it would be reasonable to make this number bigger than that. Payton wasn't speedy guard, he was a very methodical iso high post guard from the 1990s. If he could reach 10 drives per game, I see no reason to doubt Luka who is bigger, stronger and comparably athletic overall.

Your comparing MJ to 2 players that centres there games around a drive and dish.

Just look at a full game in 2014 or '15 of Harden and Lebron and contrast with MJs game.

Which is more likely to be dished out...a drive from MJ or Harden / Lebron?

Considering that MJ predominantly lived in the high post, and generally his drives occurred when there were opportunities at top of the key for a drive...meaning he would more likely go for the attempt rather than a dish.

Paytons advantage is his small size and being able to slip through tight spaces. I think your under selling Paytons speed here. To say he was slow is just inaccurate.

The games in 90s didn't really feature perimeter drives that much (no way near 2014)

Watch on YouTube

Do you see Payton attempting 10+ drives here?

[70sFan]

Your comparing MJ to 2 players that centres there games around a drive and dish.

Just look at a full game in 2014 or '15 of Harden and Lebron and contrast with MJs game.

LeBron didn't play that way in 2014, he played more off-ball than ever before or since in his NBA career. Let's also not act like Jordan didn't center his game around slashing to the basket.

Considering that MJ predominantly lived in the high post, and generally his drives occurred when there were opportunities at top of the key for a drive...meaning he would more likely go for the attempt rather than a dish.

I mean, even if we take more conservative estimation, anything less than 8 drives per game is very unlikely from Jordan. 5 drives per game sounds extremely unrealistic.

Paytons advantage is his small size and being able to slip through tight spaces. I think your under selling Paytons speed here. To say he was slow is just inaccurate.

Payton wasn't small though, he was legit 6'3-6'4 big guard. Where did I call him slow by the way? I said his game wasn't built around drives and he wasn't speedy guard like KJ for example. Both of these takes are quite accurate in my opinion.

If someone like Payton, who didn't built his offense around driving and wasn't build that well for driving game (far worse than Luka in fact), could reach 10 drives mark, then I'm sure there were more such players back then.

The games in 90s didn't really feature perimeter drives that much (no way near 2014)

Watch on YouTube

Do you see Payton attempting 10+ drives here?

Don't have the time to watch it now, but remember that judging everything from one game is quite misleading. I'd be happy if you give me the number.

[mysticOscar]

Your comparing MJ to 2 players that centres there games around a drive and dish.

Just look at a full game in 2014 or '15 of Harden and Lebron and contrast with MJs game.

LeBron didn't play that way in 2014, he played more off-ball than ever before or since in his NBA career. Let's also not act like Jordan didn't center his game around slashing to the basket.

Considering that MJ predominantly lived in the high post, and generally his drives occurred when there were opportunities at top of the key for a drive...meaning he would more likely go for the attempt rather than a dish.

I mean, even if we take more conservative estimation, anything less than 8 drives per game is very unlikely from Jordan. 5 drives per game sounds extremely unrealistic.

Paytons advantage is his small size and being able to slip through tight spaces. I think your under selling Paytons speed here. To say he was slow is just inaccurate.

Payton wasn't small though, he was legit 6'3-6'4 big guard. Where did I call him slow by the way? I said his game wasn't built around drives and he wasn't speedy guard like KJ for example. Both of these takes are quite accurate in my opinion.

If someone like Payton, who didn't built his offense around driving and wasn't build that well for driving game (far worse than Luka in fact), could reach 10 drives mark, then I'm sure there were more such players back then.

The games in 90s didn't really feature perimeter drives that much (no way near 2014)

Watch on YouTube

Do you see Payton attempting 10+ drives here?

Don't have the time to watch it now, but remember that judging everything from one game is quite misleading. I'd be happy if you give me the number.

Sorry can't respond to each point separately since on the phone.

Regarding James, regardless if he changed his game slightly to be more off ball, when he had the ball going for a drive, he was more likely to pass than MJ. It'd just not the different environment these 2 played in but the type of players they are.

Jordan compared to todays era in the 90s didn't centre his game around slashing. His slashing made baskets normally did often make the highlight reels tho. If we shifted to the 80s, then yes we could say that.

I didn't say Jordan only attempted 5 drives..that's my guess for Luka. For MJ in 90s, I estimate it to be around 7-8 attempts

Regarding Payton, his speed was fast enough with his size to get him around tight places in the paint. Lukas frame and speed is not built for that.

I mean yeah he can try to spam 10 drives a game in the 90s but it won't be very efficient and will be detrimental to his team. There wasn't really many players or even point guards that attempted more than 10 a game...maybe towards late 90s early 00s u saw more of it

Regarding the clip, I do t know the number, but I just picked the first full game in youtube that was aonics in the 90s. I just know it won't show much more than 10 drive attempts by Payton (I could be wrong of course )

I know one game won't give the full picture...but the aim is to show that perimeter drives were not very common in 90s relative to 2014 and certainly today because the environment just wasn't conducive for it

[colts18]

Luka would have to completely change up his game if he played in the 90s. The driving lanes he thrives on didn't exist back then. This is a scouting report from John Stockton in 1994. Notice how 4 drives per game is considered a Frequent driver.

[dygaction]

Luka would have to completely change up his game if he played in the 90s. The driving lanes he thrives on didn't exist back then. This is a scouting report from John Stockton in 1994. Notice how 4 drives per game is considered a Frequent driver.

That’s ncaa number, not NBA

[magicman1978]

Luka would have to completely change up his game if he played in the 90s. The driving lanes he thrives on didn't exist back then. This is a scouting report from John Stockton in 1994. Notice how 4 drives per game is considered a Frequent driver.

That’s ncaa number, not NBA

That's definitely - 100% - not an NCAA scouting report. The 3 pointers are a dead giveaway.

[colts18]

Luka would have to completely change up his game if he played in the 90s. The driving lanes he thrives on didn't exist back then. This is a scouting report from John Stockton in 1994. Notice how 4 drives per game is considered a Frequent driver.

That’s ncaa number, not NBA

It's obviously NCAA numbers because they are including some random guy named Karl Malone on the scouting report who was Stockton's teammate in college

[dygaction]

Luka would have to completely change up his game if he played in the 90s. The driving lanes he thrives on didn't exist back then. This is a scouting report from John Stockton in 1994. Notice how 4 drives per game is considered a Frequent driver.

That’s ncaa number, not NBA

It's obviously NCAA numbers because they are including some random guy named Karl Malone on the scouting report who was Stockton's teammate in college

Haha, my bad