Post-Mortem: 2022-23 Houston Rockets

[ElectricMayhem]

If the Rockets win out, they can still get to 32 wins, which is one more than the Pelicans, Thunder, Blazers, and Jazz all have. However, 538 insists they have been mathematically eliminated. Presumably because all those 31-win teams play each other multiple times. So congratulations to Houston for being the first team eliminated this year.

Here is the data from previous Post-Mortems:
2020-21:

Spoiler:

Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

2021-22:
2021-22 Post Mortem Final Summary

Team Name: Houston Rockets
Record at Time of Death: 15-50 (.231)
Head of Front Office: Rafael Stone (2020-)
Coach: Stephen Silas (2020-)

Offensive Rating: 28th
Defensive Rating: 29th
Rebound %: 1st
Turnover %: 30th

Front Office: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Kevin Porter Jr. ($18m)
Jalen Green ($10m)
Jabari Smith Jr. ($9m)
Jae'Sean Tate ($7m)
Alperen Sengun ($4m)
Tari Eason ($4m)
Usman Garuba ($3m)
Josh Christopher ($3m)
TyTy Washington Jr. ($2m)
Kenyon Martin Jr. ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Daishen Nix ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)

Team Options:

Player Options:

Free Agents:
Boban Marjanovic
Frank Kaminsky
Willie Cauley-Stein
Trevor Hudgins
Darius Days

Dead Money:
John Wall ($7m)

Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Houston Rockets

[ElectricMayhem]

Silas needs to go. Also, feel like the front office has done a decent job of spotting talent, but they've struggled with team construction. Maybe amassing talent first is fine, but I don't really feel like it's been a great spot for development this year. I'd give the front office one more year to see if they can change the team culture. They really need some influential vets and a coach who can reach these players.

It will be interesting to see if the Harden rumors are true. Does he really want to go to THIS team? Is he the type of vet this team wants? I think it should be a no from both sides, but stranger things have happened.

[BuddyBuckets]

I'm not sure Jabari and Alperen can co-exist long term. But maybe throw them out there another year to get a better idea of who you actually want to keep.

KPJ and Jalen can't co-exist, just move on from KPJ, I could see a team wanting to move a large salary into Houston's cap space and take back KPJ.

Get a real floor general. If they can't get Scoot in the draft then find a vet.

Get new coaching. A fresh coach will be refreshing to the players.

No matter what they do they won't have an identity going into next year. But maybe they can build one through the 23/24 season.

[Sane]

Tanking makes everyone look worse, and if you tank harder than anyone in history then your team's record will look artificially worse. There are no teams in NBA history who played well with a rotation of 19-21 year olds. None. They're always the worst or one of the worst teams in the league. I know there are younger teams in the NBA, but no one is giving more minutes to the youngest players in the NBA than the Houston Rockets. This is designed to achieve the worst record in the NBA.

So if you change nothing for next season except the entire organization prioritizes winning players and all these 19-21 year olds gain one more year of experience, you are already going to be a visibly better team. This is the youngest rotation in the NBA. They gave all the PG minutes to two players brutally failing at running the PG position. They never bothered acquiring someone who can protect the paint. With those changes and let's say signing 1 or 2 high-character veterans on minimum contracts plus a top 5 pick, you're going to win 30+ games (very similar to the Magic this season).

Then there's the $50m+ in cap space.

I think the organization is fine. The coach has his first report card next season so I'll give him a chance but not hopeful. We're going to see stories about how these youngs guys must have grown so fast in the summer but in reality we're just going to see the effects of an organization deciding to start winning basketball games. There's no factor more important than the entire organization holding everything together not caring about winning. That is the culture that needs to go and it will.

[jasonxxx102]

Silas may be a good guy but he wasn’t the right coach for this team.

Rockets fans better hope their young guys didn’t develop too many bad and lazy habits. Weird that Silas would bench Sengun (their best player by a mile) and then refuse to hold Jalen Green accountable for his piss poor defensive effort.

They played like a rec league team.

Sengun is really good, KPJ is fine as a secondary ball handler, Jabari didn’t really show much of anything this year so we’ll have to see what he looks like next season, and of course Jalen Green is just a no defense chucker. As long as he dominates the ball as much as he does this team is going nowhere.

Not really sure what the deal with Harden is or why he’d even want to go back but that certainly won’t help the lazy attitudes in the locker room.

I have no hope for the Rockets long term future but at least theyre not the Hornets lol

[Mavrelous]

Silas needs to go, he's not head coaching material, Rick Carlsile's coaching tree isn't as impressive as him as a coach, KPJ is a 6th man not a starter, Jalen Green needs a reliable vet next him to help him, in general they need veterans, to guide the ship rather than letting the lunatics run the asylum.

[ElectricMayhem]

KPJ and Jalen can't co-exist, just move on from KPJ, I could see a team wanting to move a large salary into Houston's cap space and take back KPJ.

I think that's going to be a tough contract to offload. I don't know why they extended him at that price. I guess if a team feels they already have a real strong culture, they might try to integrate KPJ into it if the price is low enough.

[Hugi Mancura]

They were typical tanking team. Have bunch of young players who still don't know how to play winning basketball in NBA. Their goal was to tank, so coaches job isn't really to coach them, just give players some directions and let them make their own decisions on the court and maybe learn what works and what not. So pretty much coach and players did what was expected from them. But next year there should be some direction on the court. Bright light of this year was Sengun's play. He is a keeper.

Dark side of this. This really doesn't help the young players. They probably learn something, but they would learn faster if there was someone to guide them. Now this is just a mess.

[Karate Diop]

They're an extremely disorganized bunch.

Sengun is for real and Green is worth developing. Porter Jr. Is awful, they should trade him while they can, it'd be an instant addition by subtraction scenario.

[LarsV8]

No post mortem necessary.

This has been 3 years of asset collection with no intention of putting a functioning / winning product on the court.

We forfeited like 60 percent of our cap to players not even on the team.

We will add to 2 more good quality draft picks in the offseason, and can have upwards of 70 million in cap space.

As was always the plan, the goals of the organization should shift this offseason to actually assembling a team that can be competitive on any given night.

[Godymas]

the Houston Rockets proved that "bad tanking" is still a thing

Like they've drafted multiple guys you'd want to consider part of a "young core"

Jalen Green is supposed to be a future franchise star, KPJ has proven to be able to score at an elite level. Jabari Smith Jr. shows elite role player potential. Sengun is one of the most exciting young offensive centers in the same vein as a guy like Sabonis, Jokic, etc. Yet this team shows on a night to night basis a lack of fundamental understanding on how to play winning basketball, on how to really be a competitive team.

When you have a bunch of young players that are in the "make my name" stage of their career it's on the leadership in the locker room and on the floor to help these young guys get to the next level. It hasn't happened. Houston letting John Wall sit out all of last year was a complete mistake, he should've been playing with the young guys to help them improve and learn how to play the right way. Eric Gordon is no leader, it's clear as day, he's just a guy in the locker room. Stephen Silas might be a good coach for a more experienced team, but for this team of young hotshots he isn't the right guy and it's clear as day.

Is the roster construction so far perfect? I would say no, but Houston hasn't been put in a position where they have to think about "oh will this guy fit" when picking up someone in the draft, it's always been a situation of taking the best player available all the time.

For next season it's clear what needs to happen. John Wall's old contract comes off the books. Houston needs a veteran leader in the locker room and a proper PG. If Harden signs with Houston and makes them a winner he might just win an MVP late in his career. It might be a CP3 type of effect.

Otherwise I would say the league is in a weird place when it comes to veteran players. It feels like a ton of role players drafted from the 2009-2012 era busted or left the league early and weren't winning enough in their career. Guys from 2006-2008 are mostly too old and have retired. The veterans that should be there and available don't feel there and available. I have a hard time finding who Houston could take as a "past his prime role player that still has enough left in the tank for a payday"

Think of like a Paul Millsap on Denver during the rise of Jokic/Murray. Someone that is a proven winner and will take a pay raise to play in a smaller market. Houston needs that guy. It might just be Harden if the rumors are true. Detroit was able to secure this when they signed Bogdonavic. Houston needs that kind of guy.

[cupcakesnake]

This season was a tire fire, but most of that was by design.
Nobody was really looking for more wins from this team so it can feel nitpicky to get into why this season felt disappointing.

I think what would have been nice is any semblance of competitive culture being constructed, as well as young talents finding viable NBA roles to develop in. It's felt all year - watching Jalen Green and KPJ "create" offense - that the inmates are running the asylum. These 2 guards weren't better than their teammates, but got treated to all-star usage, and I don't really get why. Alperen Sengun is a legitimate source of efficient offense, but he was treated more like a fun quirk. I was also disappointed to not see a better defensive structure. I get that Sengung/Green/KPJ are all negative defenders right now, but there's a lot of young talent on the defensive side of the ball here in Jabari, Tari Eason, Usman Garuba, and Kenyon Martin Jr.

They're about to embark into an awkward time period where they owe they owe draft picks to OKC in 2024 and 2026, top 4 protected. Do they want to be bottom 4 again next year? Or risk giving up the 5th or 6th pick in the draft? It will be interesting. They have unprotected Brooklyn picks coming those same years, as well as a bunch of complicated swaps.

Maybe as a fan, I'm disappointed that Houston was unbearable to watch this year. I'm fine with them losing games as the rebuild, but they I wouldn't mind them being fun to watch. San Antonio and Charlotte were watchable this year! OKC and Orlando are maybe 1-2 step ahead in their rebuild but infinitely more fun to watch. Houston was so undisciplined, so unstructured, just turning the ball over and yelling at each other.

It doesn't matter too much, but I'm hoping next year that the Rocket can take off and provide us with some quality NBA basketball.

[slicedbread2]

KPJ and Jalen can't co-exist, just move on from KPJ, I could see a team wanting to move a large salary into Houston's cap space and take back KPJ.

I think that's going to be a tough contract to offload. I don't know why they extended him at that price. I guess if a team feels they already have a real strong culture, they might try to integrate KPJ into it if the price is low enough.

To be fair Kevin Porter Jr.'s 1st year is only guaranteed. The rest are team options due to how much of a knucklehead he's been on and off the court(leaving the arena during the game was a bad look). If he were willing to embrace a 6th man type role similar to what his mentor Jamal Crawford did(former lotto pick who was willing to reinvent himself in order to extend his career) he'll have a long career.

In that way the Rockets are insulated and can just cut him if he decides to act up on the team.

I'll never forget Nikola Jokic being asked about Sengun and he was wondering why the heck the Rockets aren't building around him considering how good he's looked(sure he has limitations but he looks promising).

With that said they really need some good vets to help out these young guys develop some good habits. A T.J. McConnell/Ricky Rubio type would really help these guys out along with some other smarter vets.

[El Turco]

sengun is easily their best prospect. they need to get rid of silas and then build around sengun, assuming they dont get victor.

sengun, smith, green, eason, garuba + this year's pick isnt a bad core to build on but many of them play selfish. you gotta find a way to teach them to play with each other, maybe draft a floor general pg that gets everyone rolling.

[cjmcallist]

I voted to fire everyone. That was probably too far, but from the top down there seems to be no vision at all.

The only identifiable characteristic of this organization is tank to acquire top talent. No cohesive system on the court, no profile of a HOU style player, seemingly no systemic values defined at all.

It’s easy to blame Silas for that, but it’s not clear to me he has been given the support structure he needs to install the right playbook or framework. Maybe so, but maybe not.

Sengun was a good pick. Their other critical picks were the consensus pick at their position. So, hard to say they’ve done a good or bad job there.

Probably you roll it out one more year and then get a new coach, but they haven’t made the improvements I would’ve like to see from a rebuilding team.

[Lockdown504090]

why we firing everyone when everyone accomplished their mission? They been tanking. their record sucks. jobs almost done.

[QingJames]

Silas should be fired and the front office needs to stop meddling in coaching and rotation decisions. They have drafted better with their later picks, and I think Sengun and Eason are going to be really good players. Not at all impressed by Jabari Smith Jr. who has been terrible, but willing to give him another season to see if the promised sharpshooting will come.

Jalen Green on the other hand, is just not good. Very low impact ceiling player: selfish volume scorer with defense so bad it puts him in the company of Trae Young. And I don’t think there’s any hope for him defensively, because so much of his problems are awareness and BBIQ-based. Massive bust of a pick in a loaded draft and that will set them back.

I really hope they don’t get Wemby. Don’t want to see him stifled by a cheap, bad front office and an uber selfish frontcourt.

[One Last Shot]

Every 2 decades, Rockets get the First Overall Pick(Hakeem in 1984, Yao Ming in 2002) when the best prospect in the draft is a foreign Center with superstar potential. They will get Wemby then steal Harden for 4-year/$196M from the Sixers once they disappoint again in the Playoffs mainly because of injuries and Rivers. It's the ulitimate troll move and proof of the Beard's loyalty to Houston by getting huge assets from his own trade to Nets then sign back to Rockets in less than 3 years. With that assets, they can get Mikal Bridges, even Cam Johnson from the Nets by giving some of their picks back and another assets so Brooklyn can rebuild and tank properly. I don't see much incentives to tank again next season, Thunder own their 1st Round Pick next year(Top 4 protected), even with the worst record there's still a 52% chance they get the #5 pick so all that non-stop losing for a year went to waste. They should retool and replace their coach for a fresh start.

C- WEMBY/SENGUN
F- CAM/JABARI
F- MIKAL/MARTIN JR.
G- GREEN/TATE
G- HARDEN/KPJ

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Like if this Harden thing is legit, what does it look like? Would it almost be better if they get #2 to trade since they will get blasted if they trade #1? I dont see adding Harden and Victor alone making this a playoff team in year 1 and Harden isnt getting younger.

[NBA Sheady]

I don't think it's possible to perform a post-mortem on a tanking team. They intended to lose. They lost.