Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[dozo]

He had a great finish to the season(8 games). From what I read he's planning to stay @ Florida. He's a lottery pick in 24

Its his 3 level scoring potential that has piqued my interest. As prominent point of attack slasher the a-T-to ratio is concerning. At 6'5 he should be able to defend both guard positions and switches in the NBA.

I typically like Florida players because they tend to defend well and stick in the league. Still waiting on Tre Mann to break out, but he will get there.

If Kugel stays another year he could go pretty high. 2024 is wide-open. This year, unless he goes nuts in March, it may not be enough to get him drafted. My bet is Miami gets him at some point. They have the inside scoop on these Florida guys.

Interesting blog post about how fans and evaluators approach the draft.

But there’s also a time of the year in which draft maniacs simply start to overanalyze situations. We all do it. Yes, even you reading this sentence. We continue to watch the same film while asking the same questions over and over again.

“Man, Amen is so gifted, and if that shot comes around, my goodness…but what if the shot doesn’t come around?”

“ Keyonte George has been so awesome this year, but why aren’t his percentages a bit better?”

“GG Jackson is scary talented; why isn’t he averaging more assists?”

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Stretch Runs Are Fun; They Don’t Tell it All

It’s very important to remember this one, folks. We can all get jacked up on a new shiny object that is on a serious heater. It can start to twist our minds into believing that this is the “norm” now. Sometimes a limited sample can simply be the light switch coming on for a young talent. Other times, can we be worried about it being fool’s gold?

Prospect A

First 23 Games:

12.3 PTS, 3.6 REB, 3.6 AST, 2.0 STL

48.6 FG%, 40.8 3p%, 69.8 FT%

Last 6 Games:

9.7 PTS, 3.3 REB, 6.5 AST, 1.5 STL

30.6 FG%, 10.0 3p%, 90.0 FT%

Prospect B

First 22 Games:

6.6 PTS, 2.5 REB, 0.9 AST, 0.9 STL

41.5 FG%, 35.6 3p%, 65.9 FT%

Last 8 Games:

18.3 PTS, 3.6 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.6 STL

53.9 FG%, 41.2 3p%, 66.7 FT%

If you were to look at those two prospects above without knowing who they were, you’d probably have some interesting thoughts.

Spoiler:

Prospect A is Kentucky Wildcats freshman Cason Wallace. Prospect B is Florida Gators guard Riley Kugel

.

You’ve got to make sure to evaluate an entire slate of a season when you want to get a grasp of a prospect. A bad or strong stretch of games can be eye candy, especially if you find yourself passionate about one side of the fence. But is one bad stretch going to convince you to change your entire thought process on a talent?

[ATLTimekeeper]

You can't compare Podz and Lewis because the likelihood is that Podz is a lot closer to his ceiling whereas Lewis has a ways to go to reach his ceiling. Podz is a lot further along in his development at the same age.

If you make the argument that Podz isn't even close to his ceiling I don't know how that's possible as he will max out as a 40% 3pt shooter in the NBA if his form holds true and doesn't have the kind of first step or ability to draw contact to get to the line in the NBA more than he does right now in college. All of his college numbers should taper off in the NBA especially the 8.8 rebounds a game as a guard, against NBA athletes there's just no way he maintains this kind of statistical production. Same applies to his steal totals. He should still be able to rebound it and pick the ball off at a good rate for a guard but it's not like we're gonna see this guy fill it up even more in the NBA compared to what he's doing right now.

On the other hand I think Lewis absolutely can eclipse the kind of collegiate production he's outputting if he reaches his ceiling.

You'd be lighting a first round pick on fire with Lewis at this point. Late hits are productive or come from outside the NCAA.

Lewis is productive and his first half of CBB season stats were probably the most elite of any guard in the nation. He's also shooting the 3 from 40+% at home this year.

If you have a BPM under 2 in your draft year, you should not be drafted at all. It really is that simple.

[Psubs]

You'd be lighting a first round pick on fire with Lewis at this point. Late hits are productive or come from outside the NCAA.

Lewis is productive and his first half of CBB season stats were probably the most elite of any guard in the nation. He's also shooting the 3 from 40+% at home this year.

If you have a BPM under 2 in your draft year, you should not be drafted at all. It really is that simple.

Jalen Hood-Schifino has a BPM of 0.9, which would be an example of having not much more impact than any sub coming into the game for you. Really that team is all about Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Only exception would be if you're on a superstar team with like 4 players being drafted into the NBA and you're the 4th and no really a factor on that team yet but are young with potential.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Lewis is productive and his first half of CBB season stats were probably the most elite of any guard in the nation. He's also shooting the 3 from 40+% at home this year.

If you have a BPM under 2 in your draft year, you should not be drafted at all. It really is that simple.

Only exception would be if you're on a superstar team with like 4 players being drafted into the NBA and you're the 4th and no really a factor on that team yet but are young with potential.

Do you have any examples?

Maybe I'll look into this some more again, but usually anything under 5 is not going to pan out in the NBA. I can't find anyone under 2.

[Rapsfan07]

If you have a BPM under 2 in your draft year, you should not be drafted at all. It really is that simple.

Only exception would be if you're on a superstar team with like 4 players being drafted into the NBA and you're the 4th and no really a factor on that team yet but are young with potential.

Do you have any examples?

Maybe I'll look into this some more again, but usually anything under 5 is not going to pan out in the NBA. I can't find anyone under 2.

Interestingly enough, I've been diving a bit into BPM.

Crazy to say it (and no I haven't looked at every single player in the last 5 years) but it seems that you are right...sort of. At least from what I've seen. It seems that players who have BPMs north of 5 in a draft year can still not pan out in the NBA but I have yet to find a player with a BPM of 2 (or thereabouts) that has.

So it does seem that you need to have a BPM of north of 5 but even that doesn't guarantee you success at the next level.

[ItsDanger]

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First player in over 50 years to average 21 & 13 in Big10 conference play.

[Psubs]

Only exception would be if you're on a superstar team with like 4 players being drafted into the NBA and you're the 4th and no really a factor on that team yet but are young with potential.

Do you have any examples?

Maybe I'll look into this some more again, but usually anything under 5 is not going to pan out in the NBA. I can't find anyone under 2.

Interestingly enough, I've been diving a bit into BPM.

Crazy to say it (and no I haven't looked at every single player in the last 5 years) but it seems that you are right...sort of. At least from what I've seen. It seems that players who have BPMs north of 5 in a draft year can still not pan out in the NBA but I have yet to find a player with a BPM of 2 (or thereabouts) that has.

So it does seem that you need to have a BPM of north of 5 but even that doesn't guarantee you success at the next level.

Not have BPM stats too far back. I'm wondering about fresheman Corey Maggette?

Looking at Duke, seems like the 2010/2011 season has BPM stats readily available.

2012 Austin Rivers - 4.0
2019 Cam Reddish - 4.5 (he was just drafted way too high at #10, in the 20's sure)

Ya, BPM under 2.0, I don't think they'd even be average in the GLeague.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Do you have any examples?

Maybe I'll look into this some more again, but usually anything under 5 is not going to pan out in the NBA. I can't find anyone under 2.

Interestingly enough, I've been diving a bit into BPM.

Crazy to say it (and no I haven't looked at every single player in the last 5 years) but it seems that you are right...sort of. At least from what I've seen. It seems that players who have BPMs north of 5 in a draft year can still not pan out in the NBA but I have yet to find a player with a BPM of 2 (or thereabouts) that has.

So it does seem that you need to have a BPM of north of 5 but even that doesn't guarantee you success at the next level.

Not have BPM stats too far back. I'm wondering about fresheman Corey Maggette?

Right, but we can use baselines within the league right now rather than go back several decades. fwiw, Corey Maggette's ws/48 was .263. He was super productive in limited minutes, so I'd bet he was impactful despite his limited minutes.

Your example to me is more along the lines of teams like Kansas, Duke and Kentucky. Like the 2015 class with 7 Wildcats taken and Booker was considered a hidden gem on that team. Still had a BPM of 9.3 and went in the lottery.

[Psubs]

Interestingly enough, I've been diving a bit into BPM.

Crazy to say it (and no I haven't looked at every single player in the last 5 years) but it seems that you are right...sort of. At least from what I've seen. It seems that players who have BPMs north of 5 in a draft year can still not pan out in the NBA but I have yet to find a player with a BPM of 2 (or thereabouts) that has.

So it does seem that you need to have a BPM of north of 5 but even that doesn't guarantee you success at the next level.

Not have BPM stats too far back. I'm wondering about fresheman Corey Maggette?

Right, but we can use baselines within the league right now rather than go back several decades. fwiw, Corey Maggette's ws/48 was .263. He was super productive in limited minutes, so I'd bet he was impactful despite his limited minutes.

Your example to me is more along the lines of teams like Kansas, Duke and Kentucky. Like the 2015 class with 7 Wildcats taken and Booker was considered a hidden gem on that team. Still had a BPM of 9.3 and went in the lottery.

Ya, all I could find were Rivers and Reddish. So if BPM is under 5, you might be able to get a rotation player. Even then it's if you hit.

[ArthurVandelay]

Any undraft candidate scouting report?
Jeremy Roach
Boogie Ellis

Jaylen Clark

Clark will return for his sophomore season if he doesn't get a 1st round promise which I don't think he'll get. Will he repeat his steals numbers?

Clark is a junior. Returning is certainly a possibility especially with the NIL deals players are able to sign and the fact the lack of a consistent 3 is the only thing holding him back.

[Dalek]

To me the draft looks closest to what Bleacher Report mocks: Top 4 is more or less set

I included some key stats for the combo guys I like with the Toronto pick. My criteria is getting to the line, passing chops, making outside shots, defense and athleticism. Toronto has a playmaking/shot creating deficit and this draft has a few intriguing guys that in that second tier of prospects are a good fit.

5. Jarace Walker

6. Nick Smith Jr. (1.8 BPM; 27.9 FTR; 45.6 EFG; 14.9 AST; 34 3P%; 2.1 STL%)

7. Gradey Dick

8. Cam Whitmore

9. Ausar Thompson

10. Taylor Hendricks

11. Anthony Black (5.8 BPM; 56 FTR; 51 EFG; 22 AST; 32 3P%; 24 dunks; 3.3 STL%)

12. Cason Wallace (7.1 BPM; 22.5 FTR; 52.1 EFG; 24.4 AST; 36 3P%; 11 dunks; 3.7 STL%)

13. Keyonte George (5.5 BPM; 35.5 FTR; 52.1 EFG; 21 AST; 35 3P%; 3 dunks; 2.2 STL%)

14. Jett Howard

15. Kris Murray

16. Colby Jones (7.3 BPM; 33 FTR; 59 EFG; 23 AST; 40 3P%; 8 dunks; 2.3 STL%)

17. Jalen Hood-Schifino (-0.2 BPM; 20.2 FTR; 47 EFG; 21 AST; 36 3P%; 3 dunks; 2.1 STL%)

18. Brandin Podziemski (10.1 BPM; 33 FTR; 58 EFG; 20 AST; 45 3P%; 7 dunks; 2.9 STL%)

Nick Smith Jr. gets rated high in most mocks because of his high school time and not his limited college run, but he has been the weakest in almost all measures even in that short stint with a weak BPM and AST%. He is in a weird position because he is almost strictly a SG with Black playing the playmaker role. I'd tell him to go back to school for another year, but I think he already signed with Klutch so he is one and done.

To me Cason Wallace is the most balanced pick with star upside on defense alone, while Black is really intriguing as his skill in getting to the line and defense will translate. Keyonte is mainly considered because he could offer some off-ball scoring in a 6 man role which Toronto could use, but I doubt he starts because I don't think he can defend NBA guards.

If we drop out of the top 15 we take Jones with zero hesitation. JHS to me should go back to school although his athleticism is likely to stay the same. Really weak getting FTs, dunks, and being a negative on-court is hard to overlook.

/edit Added in Podz and his numbers are inline with Jones, although I am not a huge fan of that conference, but he might be one of the better shooters in the class.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Not have BPM stats too far back. I'm wondering about fresheman Corey Maggette?

Right, but we can use baselines within the league right now rather than go back several decades. fwiw, Corey Maggette's ws/48 was .263. He was super productive in limited minutes, so I'd bet he was impactful despite his limited minutes.

Your example to me is more along the lines of teams like Kansas, Duke and Kentucky. Like the 2015 class with 7 Wildcats taken and Booker was considered a hidden gem on that team. Still had a BPM of 9.3 and went in the lottery.

Ya, all I could find were Rivers and Reddish. So if BPM is under 5, you might be able to get a rotation player. Even then it's if you hit.

There are players under 5 that succeed (Jaylen Brown/Zach LaVine/ Auston Rivers/D. Murray). I'm just saying those are outliers. I haven't found any under 2.

[Psubs]

Jaylen Clark

Clark will return for his sophomore season if he doesn't get a 1st round promise which I don't think he'll get. Will he repeat his steals numbers?

Clark is a junior. Returning is certainly a possibility especially with the NIL deals players are able to sign and the fact the lack of a consistent 3 is the only thing holding him back.

Oh whoops! Then he should definitely return for his senior year. I guess he might be like an Anthony Roberson. But really in today's game if you can't shoot at all you're going to the GLeague until you can like GPII.

[Psubs]

To me the draft looks closest to what Bleacher Report mocks: Top 4 is more or less set

I included some key stats for the combo guys I like with the Toronto pick. My criteria is getting to the line, passing chops, making outside shots, defense and athleticism. Toronto has a playmaking/shot creating deficit and this draft has a few intriguing guys that in that second tier of prospects are a good fit.

5. Jarace Walker

6. Nick Smith Jr. (1.8 BPM; 27.9 FTR; 45.6 EFG; 14.9 AST; 34 3P%; 2.1 STL%)

7. Gradey Dick

8. Cam Whitmore

9. Ausar Thompson

10. Taylor Hendricks

11. Anthony Black (5.8 BPM; 56 FTR; 51 EFG; 22 AST; 32 3P%; 24 dunks; 3.3 STL%)

12. Cason Wallace (7.1 BPM; 22.5 FTR; 52.1 EFG; 24.4 AST; 36 3P%; 11 dunks; 3.7 STL%)

13. Keyonte George (5.5 BPM; 35.5 FTR; 52.1 EFG; 21 AST; 35 3P%; 3 dunks; 2.2 STL%)

14. Jett Howard

15. Kris Murray

16. Colby Jones (7.3 BPM; 33 FTR; 59 EFG; 23 AST; 40 3P%; 8 dunks; 2.3 STL%)

17. Jalen Hood-Schifino (-0.2 BPM; 20.2 FTR; 47 EFG; 21 AST; 36 3P%; 3 dunks; 2.1 STL%)

18. Brandin Podziemski (10.1 BPM; 33 FTR; 58 EFG; 20 AST; 45 3P%; 7 dunks; 2.9 STL%)

Nick Smith Jr. gets rated high in most mocks because of his high school time and not his limited college run, but he has been the weakest in almost all measures even in that short stint with a weak BPM and AST%. He is in a weird position because he is almost strictly a SG with Black playing the playmaker role. I'd tell him to go back to school for another year, but I think he already signed with Klutch so he is one and done.

To me Cason Wallace is the most balanced pick with star upside on defense alone, while Black is really intriguing as his skill in getting to the line and defense will translate. Keyonte is mainly considered because he could offer some off-ball scoring in a 6 man role which Toronto could use, but I doubt he starts because I don't think he can defend NBA guards.

If we drop out of the top 15 we take Jones with zero hesitation. JHS to me should go back to school although his athleticism is likely to stay the same. Really weak getting FTs, dunks, and being a negative on-court is hard to overlook.

/edit Added in Podz and his numbers are inline with Jones, although I am not a huge fan of that conference, but he might be one of the better shooters in the class.

Nick Smith Jr's BPM is scary low. It tells me that he doesn't make his teammates better, possibly a poor defender and they have other good players like Black, Council and the rest of the team is solid.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/arkansas/men/2023.html

WTF, he's 11th on the team in BPM!!! So when he's on the court it makes his team worse. Ball-hog?

Cason, Hendricks, Cissoko in the teens.

Get another pick in the 20's nab Kris Murray or Colby Jones. Murray has a BPM of 9.1 and had a 9.1 last season coming off the bench. If talking BPM to draft in the 20's, Trayce Jackson-Davis = 15.0!!!

Hunter Dickinson has back to back seasons of BPM = 10 and now shows glimpses of 3pt shooting. Maybe he'll be able to the 3 like Jaylin Williams is with OKC. I really wanted to draft Jaylin Williams.

Fun fact center Jaylin Williams is shooting the 3 better than teammate guard Jalen Williams.

[ATLTimekeeper]

/edit Added in Podz and his numbers are inline with Jones, although I am not a huge fan of that conference, but he might be one of the better shooters in the class.

It's fair, but same school as Jalen Williams with better numbers across the board. Almost exact same size, too.

I searched + 8 OBPM freshman/sophomore guards with over 1000 minutes and 25 usage and there are only 10 players. Trae, Ja, Alec Burks, Trey Burke, Jamal Murray, Cam Payne, D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Hamilton, Podziemski, KCP. All made the NBA. Only Hamilton didn't do anything (had a tryout with the Raptors a few years ago). Of the 10, Podziemski has the highest eFG at .572. Seems like he's as good a bet to be that bench scorer-type as any in this draft.

[Rapsfan07]

To me the draft looks closest to what Bleacher Report mocks: Top 4 is more or less set

I included some key stats for the combo guys I like with the Toronto pick. My criteria is getting to the line, passing chops, making outside shots, defense and athleticism. Toronto has a playmaking/shot creating deficit and this draft has a few intriguing guys that in that second tier of prospects are a good fit.

5. Jarace Walker

6. Nick Smith Jr. (1.8 BPM; 27.9 FTR; 45.6 EFG; 14.9 AST; 34 3P%; 2.1 STL%)

7. Gradey Dick

8. Cam Whitmore

9. Ausar Thompson

10. Taylor Hendricks

11. Anthony Black (5.8 BPM; 56 FTR; 51 EFG; 22 AST; 32 3P%; 24 dunks; 3.3 STL%)

12. Cason Wallace (7.1 BPM; 22.5 FTR; 52.1 EFG; 24.4 AST; 36 3P%; 11 dunks; 3.7 STL%)

13. Keyonte George (5.5 BPM; 35.5 FTR; 52.1 EFG; 21 AST; 35 3P%; 3 dunks; 2.2 STL%)

14. Jett Howard

15. Kris Murray

16. Colby Jones (7.3 BPM; 33 FTR; 59 EFG; 23 AST; 40 3P%; 8 dunks; 2.3 STL%)

17. Jalen Hood-Schifino (-0.2 BPM; 20.2 FTR; 47 EFG; 21 AST; 36 3P%; 3 dunks; 2.1 STL%)

18. Brandin Podziemski (10.1 BPM; 33 FTR; 58 EFG; 20 AST; 45 3P%; 7 dunks; 2.9 STL%)

Nick Smith Jr. gets rated high in most mocks because of his high school time and not his limited college run, but he has been the weakest in almost all measures even in that short stint with a weak BPM and AST%. He is in a weird position because he is almost strictly a SG with Black playing the playmaker role. I'd tell him to go back to school for another year, but I think he already signed with Klutch so he is one and done.

To me Cason Wallace is the most balanced pick with star upside on defense alone, while Black is really intriguing as his skill in getting to the line and defense will translate. Keyonte is mainly considered because he could offer some off-ball scoring in a 6 man role which Toronto could use, but I doubt he starts because I don't think he can defend NBA guards.

If we drop out of the top 15 we take Jones with zero hesitation. JHS to me should go back to school although his athleticism is likely to stay the same. Really weak getting FTs, dunks, and being a negative on-court is hard to overlook.

/edit Added in Podz and his numbers are inline with Jones, although I am not a huge fan of that conference, but he might be one of the better shooters in the class.

Well done.

I pretty much agree with your sentiments - Toronto should absolutely be prioritizing all of the things you already mentioned.

Now that I am taking another look at this class through the lens of BPM, based on that stat alone, this draft doesn't appear to be very good. I guess this class will be the test that helps me personally decide how much stock should be placed on that stat in general when trying to determine how good a prospect will be at the next level.

At the moment, the guys I want are Hendricks, Jones, Wallace & Podziemski. Sadly, I don't think any of these guys will be stars at the next level...MAYBE Hendricks.

As far as the "consensus" top 10 guys go, I'm sticking to my guns about staying away from Nick Smith. Howard and George seem like boom or bust type guys, no in betweens while Dick, Black and Murray all look like NBA role players to me.

Weirdly enough, I find myself feeling more and more comfortable selecting outside of the lottery than I think I would having to pick in it.

[God Squad]

Lewis is productive and his first half of CBB season stats were probably the most elite of any guard in the nation. He's also shooting the 3 from 40+% at home this year.

If you have a BPM under 2 in your draft year, you should not be drafted at all. It really is that simple.

Jalen Hood-Schifino has a BPM of 0.9, which would be an example of having not much more impact than any sub coming into the game for you. Really that team is all about Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Only exception would be if you're on a superstar team with like 4 players being drafted into the NBA and you're the 4th and no really a factor on that team yet but are young with potential.

Ain't that the truth. He's really growing on me, but I have a hard time projecting him at the next level.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

BPM, the stat that supports Russell Westbrook as being one of the greatest players to have walked the face of this earth.

[Dalek]

/edit Added in Podz and his numbers are inline with Jones, although I am not a huge fan of that conference, but he might be one of the better shooters in the class.

It's fair, but same school as Jalen Williams with better numbers across the board. Almost exact same size, too.

I searched + 8 OBPM freshman/sophomore guards with over 1000 minutes and 25 usage and there are only 10 players. Trae, Ja, Alec Burks, Trey Burke, Jamal Murray, Cam Payne, D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Hamilton, Podziemski, KCP. All made the NBA. Only Hamilton didn't do anything (had a tryout with the Raptors a few years ago). Of the 10, Podziemski has the highest eFG at .572. Seems like he's as good a bet to be that bench scorer-type as any in this draft.

Podz does have great numbers, but a completely different type of athlete than Williams. While Williams is 6'5 and he just plays way bigger on-court. He had 25 dunks at Santa Clara. While they are both 6'5 no way Podz has a 7'2 wingspan and 39 inch vert. Williams is a freak athlete, almost an anomaly his height to winpspan ratio.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

This board was licking JHS' nutsack two weeks ago while I called him trash, what happened since then? Might have just been an overreaction to one game where his shots fell.