The continued evolution of John Collins (Part 1)

tbhawksfan1 · Post #81 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Sun Mar 5, 2023 5:21 pm

Last night's game seems very indicative. JC refused the 4@$90M that TS offered, put the Hawks into a no win situation and is now turning into an albatross. I have been down on JC since he refused the very fair offer from TS.

Since then, he has cried for more involvement, failed to develop and now totally bottomed out

I have a feeling that JC will be the next cost cutting move. He will be traded as a very negative asset.

Seems that Bogey has indicated that he will opt out and JC will likely be traded for an expiring

It will be interesting to see how Snyder decides to build his team going forward. Once Bogey's and JC's money comes off we will have to re-sign DM and OO, but we should be left with more wiggle room than we have right now

dlb731 · Post #82 » by **dlb731** » Sun Mar 5, 2023 9:00 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:Last night's game seems very indicative. JC refused the 4@$90M that TS offered, put the Hawks into a no win situation and is now turning into an albatross. I have been down on JC since he refused the very fair offer from TS.

Since then, he has cried for more involvement, failed to develop and now totally bottomed out

I have a feeling that JC will be the next cost cutting move. He will be traded as a very negative asset.

Seems that Bogey has indicated that he will opt out and JC will likely be traded for an expiring

It will be interesting to see how Snyder decides to build his team going forward. Once Bogey's and JC's money comes off we will have to re-sign DM and OO, but we should be left with more wiggle room than we have right now

Don't forget that Bey will require a contract the same year as Okongwu....

tbhawksfan1 · Post #83 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 11:29 am

JC is averaging lowest boards, assits, FG% and 3PT% of his career
When dude turned down the 4@$90M that Schlenk offered, I knew we were in trouble
He got way over-paid and his numbers declined. Then he made waves like he needed to be more featured even though everything he got was fed
Now the bottom has fallen out. Clear case of getting his bag and mailing it in

D21 · Post #84 » by **D21** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 4:21 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:JC is averaging lowest boards, assits, FG% and 3PT% of his career
When dude turned down the 4@$90M that Schlenk offered, I knew we were in trouble
He got way over-paid and his numbers declined. Then he made waves like he needed to be more featured even though everything he got was fed
Now the bottom has fallen out. Clear case of getting his bag and mailing it in

It doesn't mean anything to look at one game only, until recently, John had the best Net rating among the starters this season.
If he had been so bad, he would never had been the best Net rating. I don't care at all about individual stats compared to a contract if the team is winning with a player.
I don't like is that they are not winning enough, but even if it would be better if John could have a better impact, it's absolutely not the only problem, and not the main problem, which is having lost 2 spacing guys/shooters and letting a good defensive backup PG, for one PG/SG that he's not as good as he shooter, even if he's making progress.

At least we got Bey to cover the loss of Huerter, but if we had kept Wright, and find a replacement for Gallo in a big guy able to shoot, this team would be better, and maybe better enough to have to look at John individual stats.

And I won't blame it for the 90M/4y because I always thought it was a 100M psychological barrier, and that 105/110M/5y would have made it work.
It was easy for his agent to ask more than 90/4 because him and Trae had just to be free to get all the ball during the previous years, so getting high individual stats even if the team was not winning, and I always thought that it was a management problem to be in this king of situation because most of the time, teams are ending up paying more than they should.

tbhawksfan1 · Post #85 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 5:39 pm

D21 wrote:
tbhawksfan1 wrote:JC is averaging lowest boards, assits, FG% and 3PT% of his career
When dude turned down the 4@$90M that Schlenk offered, I knew we were in trouble
He got way over-paid and his numbers declined. Then he made waves like he needed to be more featured even though everything he got was fed
Now the bottom has fallen out. Clear case of getting his bag and mailing it in

It doesn't mean anything to look at one game only, until recently, John had the best Net rating among the starters this season.
If he had been so bad, he would never had been the best Net rating. I don't care at all about individual stats compared to a contract if the team is winning with a player.
I don't like is that they are not winning enough, but even if it would be better if John could have a better impact, it's absolutely not the only problem, and not the main problem, which is having lost 2 spacing guys/shooters and letting a good defensive backup PG, for one PG/SG that he's not as good as he shooter, even if he's making progress.

At least we got Bey to cover the loss of Huerter, but if we had kept Wright, and find a replacement for Gallo in a big guy able to shoot, this team would be better, and maybe better enough to have to look at John individual stats.

And I won't blame it for the 90M/4y because I always thought it was a 100M psychological barrier, and that 105/110M/5y would have made it work.
It was easy for his agent to ask more than 90/4 because him and Trae had just to be free to get all the ball during the previous years, so getting high individual stats even if the team was not winning, and I always thought that it was a management problem to be in this king of situation because most of the time, teams are ending up paying more than they should.

You are making some good points, but I don't buy the net rating thing. JC is playing terribly and he is untradeable now.

A couple of guys that JC was thought to be comparable to : Randle and Sabonis have gone crazy and would completely change our front court while JC has cratered and our front court is a HUGE weakness on O and D and Capela isn't bad. The problem is JC

Post #86 » by **Jamaaliver** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 8:56 pm

Somehow, I've turned into John's biggest defender in this space. (Seriously, he was amazing at the start of the season.)

But it's been brutal to watch of late. I still lay the scheme and PGs as the cause, but at this point it doesn't matter.

It is time to ask questions on how to improve the team as we head into postseason play.

To wit...should Saddiq start for a while?

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Post #87 » by **Jamaaliver** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 9:13 pm

A look at how Collins should be pressuring the rim on every play:

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D21 · Post #88 » by **D21** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 10:59 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:A couple of guys that JC was thought to be comparable to : Randle and Sabonis have gone crazy and would completely change our front court while JC has cratered and our front court is a HUGE weakness on O and D and Capela isn't bad. The problem is JC

Bring Randle or Sabonis here, and continue to let Trae+Murray take 45 shots and give ony 4 to 6 shots to Randle or Sabonis like it happens for John, and we will see if there will be no debate and if the team will be better

Don't get me wrong, I know that they would spread the floor more than John, but there would still be a problem in this team.
And one of the problem is not that we can spread the floor with our PF, but that we can't with one of our C (which can change if Okongwu start to hit from 3pts range)

D21 · Post #89 » by **D21** » Mon Mar 6, 2023 11:12 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:To wit...should Saddiq start for a while?

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Better place things in context:
On the last 5 games, Bey had 8.8 FGA per game... Collins had 5.5
Bey got 29.2 minutes per game, Collins 22.9
Bey got a 12.8 Net rating, but was mainly playing with Bogi (19.3), Okongwu (23.8) and Johnson (28.7)

Post #90 » by **Jamaaliver** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 3:36 pm

Feed this man!!!

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Post #91 » by **Jamaaliver** » Tue Mar 7, 2023 6:12 pm

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tbhawksfan1 · Post #92 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Wed Mar 8, 2023 10:32 am

Jamaaliver wrote:

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I'm not a fan of these kind of stats because they neglact what the other three players are providing to those numbers

The thing with JC is that if he's not set up with a clear path to the hoop he basically has no O now that he can't shoot

tbhawksfan1 · Post #93 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Wed Mar 8, 2023 10:34 am

Jamaaliver wrote:Somehow, I've turned into John's biggest defender in this space. (Seriously, he was amazing at the start of the season.)

But it's been brutal to watch of late. I still lay the scheme and PGs as the cause, but at this point it doesn't matter.

It is time to ask questions on how to improve the team as we head into postseason play.

To wit...should Saddiq start for a while?

Read on Twitter

Yeah, at this point it seems clear that it's better to go with Bey going forward. Early but it appears that QS has already understood this

dlb731 · Post #94 » by **dlb731** » Wed Mar 8, 2023 1:26 pm

Something to always remember.... For any team...

You can't replace a 12 ppg scorer like Huerter last year, with a 21 ppg like Murray, and expect everyone else to score and produce EXACTLY as they did before. There is only one basketball, and only one person can shoot per possession.

Is Collins making more money than what he is producing?... Yes. But so is Hunter, and I don't see anyone asking for his head.

Post #95 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Mar 8, 2023 1:47 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:The thing with JC is that if he's not set up with a clear path to the hoop he basically has no O now that he can't shoot

No O?!?!?

John has greatly improved his post game and his ball handling this season. He's no Jayson Tatum, but he's easily the most talented scoring big man on the squad.

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DirtybirdGA · Post #96 » by **DirtybirdGA** » Wed Mar 8, 2023 2:33 pm

I certainly like him inside than 3fg attempts.

D21 · Post #97 » by **D21** » Wed Mar 8, 2023 4:03 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:Yeah, at this point it seems clear that it's better to go with Bey going forward. Early but it appears that QS has already understood this

The last MIA game shows you that you can't rely on these individual stats (or without more context information) too much: he was used more correctly in the offense, and in the end :
- Collins: 17pts at 7-11 with only 1-4 at 3pts (4 is too much, I would prefer 2 or 3 only)
- Bey: 17pts at 6-10 with 3-5 at 3pts

But...
- Hawks were +12pts with Collins, best Plus/Minus of the team
- Hawks were -16pts with Bey, worst Plus/Minus of the team

Hawks are dominating most of the time when they used Collins correctly, that has been a fact and it's still one
He's not more of a problem than having two C playing near the basket. If one was able to spread the floor, Collins would certainly have higher impact.

I hope Okongwu can start to hit longer shots consistently, because I find it a little bit stupid to try to fix offensive problems on all other spots, from PG to PF, when our biggest problem is that we get 48 minutes with a C in the paint only.
It's less important if they run and push the ball, but when the opponent defense is set, it gives far less options

tbhawksfan1 · Post #98 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Wed Mar 8, 2023 8:02 pm

I am really surprised by the JC love. He is not playing well. Even if he's not being fed enough..set up is a better word, there is no excuse for his lack of boards and defense

If he only got 12 points a game but got 10+ boards and played solied D, I wouldn't be so down on him

D21 · Post #99 » by **D21** » Wed Mar 8, 2023 9:51 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:I am really surprised by the JC love. He is not playing well. Even if he's not being fed enough..set up is a better word, there is no excuse for his lack of boards and defense

If he only got 12 points a game but got 10+ boards and played solied D, I wouldn't be so down on him

Nobody he's saying that he's the best player, but nobody should act like he's the biggest problem of ATL.
That's all, it's just being objective. What is the point to compare him Bey on these last game? Bey is healthy, Collins got concussion and plays with minutes restriction.

Yes, he can play better than that, but regarding his personal stats, it's a collective sport, so I don't care much about his personal rebound numbers, it all depends on what happens while he's rebounding like that.

Post #100 » by **Jamaaliver** » Thu Mar 9, 2023 5:08 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:I am really surprised by the JC love. He is not playing well. Even if he's not being fed enough..set up is a better word, there is no excuse for his lack of boards and defense

If he only got 12 points a game but got 10+ boards and played solid D, I wouldn't be so down on him

It just feels like Hawks fans are putting too much ire on Collins for a disappointing season. They're conflating Collins having a bad season with Collins being a bad player.

Also, he's dealt with Back issues and a concussion in the past three weeks. Not easy things to get past for professional athletes.

NOTE: It's difficult to get 10+ boards when he's been relegated to the perimeter on offense and defense in deference to Capela for the past 2 years.

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