Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[ATLTimekeeper]

I went through every NBA player playing over 20 minutes a night (242 players, well over 100 NCAA players since they've counted BPM). Here's how many had a draft year BPM under 5.

Austin Rivers (4)
Troy Brown (3.7)
Cam Reddish (4.5)
Jalen McDaniels (3.3)
Torrey Craig (0.6!)
Gabe Vincent (2.6)
Max Strus (4.5)
Lu Dort (3.1)
Jaden McDaniels (2.6)
Jordan Clarkson (4.3)
Tyrese Maxey (4.4)
Kevin Porter (3.3)
Darius Garland (4.9)
Zach LaVine (2.9)
Jaylen Brown (3.6)
Dejounte Murray (3.6)

Teams should not draft anyone under 2, and should feel very confident passing on anyone under 3. BPM doesn't have much positive correlation with high numbers, because there's limited spots in the NBA each year and there's always good NCAA players each year. But there are very few bad NCAA players that make it in the NBA. imo this is an easy way to look at prospects. BPM is counted since 2011. That's 12 drafts (720 picks + undrafteds). < 2% under a BPM of 5 have a significant role in the NBA this year. Or maybe another way to look at it is slightly more than 1 per draft ends up playing > 20 minutes a night in the NBA.

[Rapsfan07]

Thats a reasonable assessment.

If we pick 15, or thereabouts, who would you take?

I like Cason, Hendricks , Rupert (if he drops), on the fence with Kobe Bufkin, ,

Neither Cason Wallace nor Taylor Hendricks should be available when we pick. If one of them is you take them and run.

That may be the case with Wallace, yes but as of right now, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Hendricks to be there in the 12-15 range. The only lottery guys I think could slip lower than him is Nick Smith and maybe Anthony Black.

Right now we're slotted to pick 12th, barring any changes to the draft order. If we continue on this slide (which I hope we do) to close out the season, I think Hendricks should be available for us to pick in the 10ish range...if we're confident enough to take him that high.

[BoyzNTheHood]

I like Cason, Hendricks , Rupert (if he drops), on the fence with Kobe Bufkin, ,

Neither Cason Wallace nor Taylor Hendricks should be available when we pick. If one of them is you take them and run.

That may be the case with Wallace, yes but as of right now, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Hendricks to be there in the 12-15 range. The only lottery guys I think could slip lower than him is Nick Smith and maybe Anthony Black.

Right now we're slotted to pick 12th, barring any changes to the draft order. If we continue on this slide (which I hope we do) to close out the season, I think Hendricks should be available for us to pick in the 10ish range...if we're confident enough to take him that high.

A slide with Jak and the guys in tow would be a blessing in disguise

[ATLTimekeeper]

Fair to say that there is no real difference stat-wise in college between the two that shows athleticism. By playing bigger, I mainly mean Jalen looks like a 6'7/6'8 guy on a court - he has wow moments with his athleticism. I mentioned Williams vert and wingspan, and in the NBA he is using those attributes to a high level as rookie guard.

I don't know about you, but bigger and more athletic but less productive at an older age against the same competition isn't a credit to a prospect. You worried about Santa Clara's competition, I'm saying that Podziemski is the better NCAA player a full year younger in very similar circumstances. Doesn't matter to me that he has 7 dunks. Bane had zero in his draft year. Franz Wagner had 11. Obi Toppin had like 80 or something stupid like that. It's not a tell.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

If BPM says Sasser is a god and Smith Jr. and JHS are trash then let's take Marcus 15th and call it a night. His WS/40 numbers are even better this year even though there is some odd consensus he has "regressed" as a player because he's not stroking it from deep as insanely good as he did last year.

Regardless Sasser is a lot more explosive than a Colby Jones, a better PnR defender and his shot and deep range are definitely not going to disappear anytime soon.

[ItsDanger]

Don't know the BPM formula but can't it be influenced by opposition scoring especially for players that lead bench units? Its kind of rough net rating stat I think.

[God Squad]

If BPM says Sasser is a god and Smith Jr. and JHS are trash then let's take Marcus 15th and call it a night. His WS/40 numbers are even better this year even though there is some odd consensus he has "regressed" as a player because he's not stroking it from deep as insanely good as he did last year.

Regardless Sasser is a lot more explosive than a Colby Jones, a better PnR defender and his shot and deep range are definitely not going to disappear anytime soon.

They certainly paint Sasser as the better prospect of the 3. Even dating back to Sassers freshman year he posted a BPM of 5.2 compared to Nick Smiths current 2.8 and JHS 0.9.

Currently Sassers BPM is at 12.0. So yeah, he's a lot better than them now and as a freshman. Still not taking a senior top 12 though.

[Rapsfan07]

If BPM says Sasser is a god and Smith Jr. and JHS are trash then let's take Marcus 15th and call it a night. His WS/40 numbers are even better this year even though there is some odd consensus he has "regressed" as a player because he's not stroking it from deep as insanely good as he did last year.

Regardless Sasser is a lot more explosive than a Colby Jones, a better PnR defender and his shot and deep range are definitely not going to disappear anytime soon.

They certainly paint Sasser as the better prospect of the 3. Even dating back to Sassers freshman year he posted a BPM of 5.2 compared to Nick Smiths current 2.8 and JHS 0.9.

Currently Sassers BPM is at 12.0. So yeah, he's a lot better than them now and as a freshman. Still not taking a senior top 12 though.

Agreed.

[dozo]

Don't know the BPM formula but can't it be influenced by opposition scoring especially for players that lead bench units? Its kind of rough net rating stat I think.

I agree.Its just another tool to evaluate prospects.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html#:~:text=BPM%20uses%20a%20player's%20box,is%20purely%20a%20rate%20stat!

BPM uses a player’s box score information, position, and the team’s overall performance to estimate the player’s contribution in points above league average per 100 possessions played. BPM does not take into account playing time -- it is purely a rate stat!

[Dalek]

Fair to say that there is no real difference stat-wise in college between the two that shows athleticism. By playing bigger, I mainly mean Jalen looks like a 6'7/6'8 guy on a court - he has wow moments with his athleticism. I mentioned Williams vert and wingspan, and in the NBA he is using those attributes to a high level as rookie guard.

I don't know about you, but bigger and more athletic but less productive at an older age against the same competition isn't a credit to a prospect. You worried about Santa Clara's competition, I'm saying that Podziemski is the better NCAA player a full year younger in very similar circumstances. Doesn't matter to me that he has 7 dunks. Bane had zero in his draft year. Franz Wagner had 11. Obi Toppin had like 80 or something stupid like that. It's not a tell.

You are not seeming to let this go, so I will indulge you because I am curious what your analysis is. What do see as the draft range or outcome for Podziemski?

What position do you think he plays at the next level?

What kind of numbers should we expect in year one?

You are inferring he is a better prospect than Jalen Williams, so come out with what you think Podz outcome is rather than trying to poke holes in an actual highly productive NBA player that went in the lottery. I mean Williams had a 50/40/81 college shooting splits and he has the athleticism and NBA size that showed in the combine - that combo is why was drafted in the lottery and is a NBA starting level player.

Not sure why you are obsessing over my mention of dunks. I know it is not a be all end all stat, but if you look at FTR and dunks to me in college it indicates whether there is some level of NBA athleticism and aggressiveness. Personally, I put more value in those indicators because those to me are indicators of a potential NBA all-star and not a role player guard.

Podz looks like an awesome shooter and hustle guy, but I think you can see from the film they are different calibers of athletes but maybe you see things differently. Please tell me your perspective on him as a prospect because we can't draft Jalen Williams.

[PhilBlackson]

This mediocre team will still likely move up a spot or two so because I don't believe in the Hawks, obvious dysfunction with Collins being permanently available, rumours of teammates not liking Trae's ballhoggin and clearly lost the lockerroom to fire your HC so late in the season...so sadly we're doing it for the treadmill.

Anyways...we're probably picking 13-17 this year so my guesses of who I think we'll draft would be if either of Wallace or Black happen to fall to us then we'll pick them. If not I think it will be one of JHS, Hendricks or Cissiko. Basically guys with length that can defend and have some versatility offensively. Although I threw in Hendricks too because of course he still fits the physical profile while also being able to defend. Not as versatile but with Nick crying about shooting all year, it wouldn't surprise me at all if we picked TH.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Fair to say that there is no real difference stat-wise in college between the two that shows athleticism. By playing bigger, I mainly mean Jalen looks like a 6'7/6'8 guy on a court - he has wow moments with his athleticism. I mentioned Williams vert and wingspan, and in the NBA he is using those attributes to a high level as rookie guard.

I don't know about you, but bigger and more athletic but less productive at an older age against the same competition isn't a credit to a prospect. You worried about Santa Clara's competition, I'm saying that Podziemski is the better NCAA player a full year younger in very similar circumstances. Doesn't matter to me that he has 7 dunks. Bane had zero in his draft year. Franz Wagner had 11. Obi Toppin had like 80 or something stupid like that. It's not a tell.

You are not seeming to let this go, so I will indulge you because I am curious what your analysis is. What do see as the draft range or outcome for Podziemski?

What position do you think he plays at the next level?

What kind of numbers should we expect in year one?

You are inferring he is a better prospect than Jalen Williams, so come out with what you think Podz outcome is rather than trying to poke holes in an actual highly productive NBA player that went in the lottery. I mean Williams had a 50/40/81 college shooting splits and he has the athleticism and NBA size that showed in the combine - that combo is why was drafted in the lottery and is a NBA starting level player.

Not sure why you are obsessing over my mention of dunks. I know it is not a be all end all stat, but if you look at FTR and dunks to me in college it indicates whether there is some level of NBA athleticism and aggressiveness. Personally, I put more value in those indicators because those to me are indicators of a potential NBA all-star and not a role player guard.

Podz looks like an awesome shooter and hustle guy, but I think you can see from the film they are different calibers of athletes but maybe you see things differently. Please tell me your perspective on him as a prospect because we can't draft Jalen Williams.

Hey you were the one that started with the level of competition question, and now Williams numbers are important because he 'looks bigger.' I'm dismissing the importance of looking bigger and jumping higher on a side-by-side comparison here.

FTr for Podziemski is .317 this year, Williams was .330 in his draft year as "the guy." Not really much there, either. As a prospect he should be going in that 10-30 range. Looks like a solid starter to me.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Don't know the BPM formula but can't it be influenced by opposition scoring especially for players that lead bench units? Its kind of rough net rating stat I think.

I agree.Its just another tool to evaluate prospects.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html#:~:text=BPM%20uses%20a%20player's%20box,is%20purely%20a%20rate%20stat!

BPM uses a player’s box score information, position, and the team’s overall performance to estimate the player’s contribution in points above league average per 100 possessions played. BPM does not take into account playing time -- it is purely a rate stat!

It's just a useful number to filter out weak prospects. Trying to read too much into what it actually means would be missing the point.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Sasser's WS/40 is even more impressive than his BPM. Regardless if you look at his BPM, PER, WS/40 everything is exceptionally high. We have seen time and time again that overlooking senior players can be a huge mistake just like in baseball overlooking college players in favor of high school ones can be a mistake as well, many teams have passed on absolute MLB studs in favor of some toolsy raw tall left handed high school pitcher from texas with a 98 mph fastball.

Every time I see Sasser at the top of his game he looks like a guy who can consistently drop points in bunches, swing the momentum of games and achieve those scoring runs while also being a quality defender which is what will keep him on the floor as a starter in the NBA.

In terms of his outside game it looks highly comparable to many elite NBA guards in terms of ability to self-create and get open on the perimeter. If he were 3 inches taller and more ripped to finish through contact at the rim he'd already be a top 10 lock.

The Raptors could desperately use Sasser's ball handling ability and athleticism. He is a quick little bugger and this team lacks agility. Siakam ain't no spring chicken anymore and our center as good as he is isn't explosive, Scottie isn't explosive, FVV isn't explosive, team overall are slugs compared to the rest of the NBA where most teams have a few truly special athletes in their lineups. We don't. Sasser isn't a total freak but the dude is quick and slick as hell.

[dozo]

Don't know the BPM formula but can't it be influenced by opposition scoring especially for players that lead bench units? Its kind of rough net rating stat I think.

I agree.Its just another tool to evaluate prospects.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html#:~:text=BPM%20uses%20a%20player's%20box,is%20purely%20a%20rate%20stat!

BPM uses a player’s box score information, position, and the team’s overall performance to estimate the player’s contribution in points above league average per 100 possessions played. BPM does not take into account playing time -- it is purely a rate stat!

It's just a useful number to filter out weak prospects. Trying to read too much into what it actually means would be missing the point.

100%. The poster using the benchmark of 2 BPM to filter prospects is thinking outside of the box and being creative.

[Psubs]

If BPM says Sasser is a god and Smith Jr. and JHS are trash then let's take Marcus 15th and call it a night. His WS/40 numbers are even better this year even though there is some odd consensus he has "regressed" as a player because he's not stroking it from deep as insanely good as he did last year.

Regardless Sasser is a lot more explosive than a Colby Jones, a better PnR defender and his shot and deep range are definitely not going to disappear anytime soon.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/javier-francis-1.htmlhttps://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/javier-francis-1.html

Teammate JaVier Francis only plays 11 mpg and is an INSANE 11.9 BPM!!! Stl / TO > 1 and Blk / Foul = 0.78, shoots 70%. Maybe he develops like a Trayce Jackson-Davis in a couple of years.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Read on Twitter

Vecenie has KeyG @ 16 on his big board.

Honestly he might end up as Jeremy Lamb. Not that consistent of a shooter, not a great first step athlete or a vertical one. Had some decent high scoring games in college but isn't good enough to be a first option on a real NBA team.

I was really high on Keyonte but he's gonna have to be a lot better skillwise to make up for his lack of a physical profile to make the pick worth it

[grant101]

This mediocre team will still likely move up a spot or two so because I don't believe in the Hawks, obvious dysfunction with Collins being permanently available, rumours of teammates not liking Trae's ballhoggin and clearly lost the lockerroom to fire your HC so late in the season...so sadly we're doing it for the treadmill.

Anyways...we're probably picking 13-17 this year so my guesses of who I think we'll draft would be if either of Wallace or Black happen to fall to us then we'll pick them. If not I think it will be one of JHS, Hendricks or Cissiko. Basically guys with length that can defend and have some versatility offensively. Although I threw in Hendricks too because of course he still fits the physical profile while also being able to defend. Not as versatile but with Nick crying about shooting all year, it wouldn't surprise me at all if we picked TH.

Who knows with this team! so frustrating to watch. That said, I think you're right in terms of where we end up picking...sigh.

I think Masai prioritizes shooting this year (he specifically mentioned the need to add elite 3pt shooting during his presser), so it may be an atypical draft. Hendricks fits the bill (the shot is pretty), but I agree that his lack of versatility really hurts his ceiling. I think it's going to be a long road before he adds anything reliable off the dribble to his game (it may never come), so I think you've gotta be comfortable with the limitations to his game. I can similarly see the Raptors talking themselves into being able to develop TH, but I hope other players with more to their games are available. Gradey and Cason would both fit well and both have really nice complementary games, the question is - do they last to the late lottery? Dariq Whitehead is another intriguing prospect with a nice shot and far more to his game than he's been able to show for a number of reasons. Jett & Brice would be very uncharacteristic picks, but fit the 3pt shooting need.

Black and Cissoko fit the MO, but I don't think Black is there (and the shot will take a while), and I'm not sold at all on Cissoko. I like JHS, but his stock might be a little too overvalued now. I liked him at the beginning of the year as a solid big guard to take with our second rounder... picking him at 13-17 would be tough... as much as I like his game.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

The shot is money and he's a real athlete at his size. This guy can be the PF Mikal Bridges if we put him through a ball handling program

25/10 with 2 blocks in his last game. 9/14 from the field.

I'm officially a Taylor Hendricks fan account

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

lol if Masai said he needs elite 3 point shooting and let's be real the Raps want to shoot the 3 ball at a ridiculous rate if they're encouraging Scottie to chuck it in-game even when they know his shot sucks still, they will draft Sasser.

I'm sure with the FO being so analytically minded they want the Raps to shoot the 3 ball 40+ times a game as an ultimate goal. They have hinted at this before and it's the same reason they still chuck 2 for 1 shots almost every single time. Whatever analytics says makes sense they will do. Now that they have an overabundance of rebounding and ability to force turnovers they need to figure out which players can be replaced where they can maintain those things at a good rate while drastically improving their shotmaking ability.

This is where the pressure on the FO is. They need to make the right decisions this offseason on who stays and who goes and even the slightest mistake can F this team up for years in terms of fit and chemistry and ability to win.