Official Trade Thread Part XLV

[AFM]

Obviously. Plus he’d have to borrow the sign from Ernie

[Frichuela]

This is the kind of trade no GM would EVER make.
You might as well ask Tommy to wear a sign on his forehead that reads "I'm an idiot."

Why not? A good GM should be quick enough to act and reverse course.

Garuba is a defensive beast, with a lot of potential. He would anchor our D next to Porzingis and Gafford. And unlike our two front court players he is a very capable perimeter defender.

In my mind, he is a much better prospect than Johnny Davis. Now... I am sure Houston's front office know that...but (if in the unlikely case) they believe Johnny Davis can thrive in a different environment, maybe they are willing to do the trade in the off-season. Again, for the Wizards this would be a no brainer.

[payitforward]

This is the kind of trade no GM would EVER make.
You might as well ask Tommy to wear a sign on his forehead that reads "I'm an idiot."

Why not? A good GM should be quick enough to act and reverse course.

Garuba is a defensive beast, with a lot of potential. He would anchor our D next to Porzingis and Gafford. And unlike our two front court players he is a very capable perimeter defender.

In my mind, he is a much better prospect than Johnny Davis. Now... I am sure Houston's front office know that...but (if in the unlikely case) they believe Johnny Davis can thrive in a different environment, maybe they are willing to do the trade in the off-season. Again, for the Wizards this would be a no brainer.

Oh, I'd be more than happy to make this trade!
But, a GM would be signing his own resignation form to do it. I can't think of a single example of anything close.

[AFM]

It's what nerds call a "mea culpa"

[WallToWall]

Thoughts on sign and trade Kuzma to Minn for KAT? It would help both teams out. KAT and Gobert occupy the same areas, so one of them has to go. Kuzma gives Minn a good spacer. We need interior presence - a stronger rebounder, someone who can body up a bigger C, yet be able to hit the outside shot. KAT will give us that.

[NatP4]

Thoughts on sign and trade Kuzma to Minn for KAT? It would help both teams out. KAT and Gobert occupy the same areas, so one of them has to go. Kuzma gives Minn a good spacer. We need interior presence - a stronger rebounder, someone who can body up a bigger C, yet be able to hit the outside shot. KAT will give us that.

I don’t see why Minnesota would do that. KAT is an all star level player in his prime. I guess injuries and poor fit is how we were able to acquire Porzingis, but Minnesota can surely get a couple 1sts for KAT atleast.

[Dark Faze]

I wonder if we could swing Morris for McConnell from Indy. Might have to throw in a second rounder. Monte is 3 years younger and on a deal that's a year shorter, and Indy will have a better cap situation than us. T.J might be the better fit here. Better defender.

Improving at the margins and working within the cap is about all we can do at this point if we extend Kuz and KP.

[nate33]

Thoughts on sign and trade Kuzma to Minn for KAT? It would help both teams out. KAT and Gobert occupy the same areas, so one of them has to go. Kuzma gives Minn a good spacer. We need interior presence - a stronger rebounder, someone who can body up a bigger C, yet be able to hit the outside shot. KAT will give us that.

I don’t see why Minnesota would do that. KAT is an all star level player in his prime. I guess injuries and poor fit is how we were able to acquire Porzingis, but Minnesota can surely get a couple 1sts for KAT atleast.

Agreed. Minnesota can do better.

Also, I don't see KAT as a particularly good fit here. We already have our own version of KAT in Porzingis, only Porzingis was actually quite a bit better than KAT this year (though not necessarily in prior seasons). Sure, it would be nice to add KAT here, but I'd like it even more if we added a player with the same value as KAT but at a position of greater need.

I think other teams in more dire need of a high-usage stretch 5 would be willing to pay much more than we would to acquire KAT.

[Frichuela]

In the trade board, I asked around about a hypothetical scenario in which Beal would ask out by season-end.

A Miami Heat fan posted the following trade: Beal for Herro+Lowry+ 3 1st rounders.

If I was Tommy I would accept that trade and drive into the sunset! Lowry's contract has just one more year to go and the 3 1st rounders would probably be 2023 (#20 right now), 2027 (or 2028), 2029 (or 2030).

The probability of Brad asking out would increase with our draft slot. That is, it would be higher should we crash and burn and miss the play-in. In such scenario, we would keep our own pick in this upcoming draft, and be possibly in the 8-10 range (with an outside chance of having a top 4 pick).

[gambitx777]

In the trade board, I asked around about a hypothetical scenario in which Beal would ask out by season-end.

A Miami Heat fan posted the following trade: Beal for Herro+Lowry+ 3 1st rounders.

If I was Tommy I would accept that trade and drive into the sunset! Lowry's contract has just one more year to go and the 3 1st rounders would probably be 2023 (#20 right now), 2027 (or 2028), 2029 (or 2030).

The probability of Brad asking out would increase with our draft slot. That is, it would be higher should we crash and burn and miss the play-in. In such scenario, we would keep our own pick in this upcoming draft, and be possibly in the 8-10 range (with an outside chance of having a top 4 pick).

I would teeek the trade a bit
Lowery, oladipo, jovic 2023,2027,2029 first and 2026 and 2029 seconds.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[Endless Loop]

I'm a bit confused about the cap for 2023-24. It looks like the Wiz will be at $102 million without Porzingas or Kuzma, but with $4.3 million for the #10 pick in the draft. That would leave about $60 million in cap space. I've seen speculation that Kuzma will likely get a contract around $30 million, which would leave $30 million for Porzingas. People further assume that Porzingas will opt out and sign longer term for around $30 million.

BUT Porzingas has had a heck of a year. What if he gets an offer for, say, 4/$140 million elsewhere? If the Wizards pay Kuzma $30 and Porzingas $35, they'd be in tax territory.

It just seems that the assumption that Porzingas won't be worth more than Kuzma in the offseason is not at all a certainty. He's certainly outplayed him this year; the only question is the possibility for injury. I just wouldn't count on the Wizards getting both Kuzma and Porzingas for the sum of $60 million.

And then there's the question of the year after next- they'll have a hard time paying Avdija; Wright will probably be due a significant bump and so on...

Seems obvious that they should let Kuzma go, maybe with a S&T. And maybe they realize that, and feel that what they'd get back in a S&T would be better than what they could have had at the deadline??

[payitforward]

...Porzingas has had a heck of a year....

Has KP had a really good year?
He's had some great games, no doubt about it. But, I'd love someone to explain what makes people think he's been outstanding overall.

I'd say, overall, he's been pretty solid. Good. But nothing special.
Of course, I could be wrong, & I'd welcome some showing that to me. Using numbers of course.

[FAH1223]

Has KP had a really good year?
He's had some great games, no doubt about it. But, I'd love someone to explain what makes people think he's been outstanding overall.

I'd say, overall, he's been pretty solid. Good. But nothing special.
Of course, I could be wrong, & I'd welcome some showing that to me. Using numbers of course.

Here's what Kevin Broom said in the Bullets Forever thread here:
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2023/3/9/23631676/too-many-turnovers-leave-the-wizards-parked-in-10th





I have Porzingis better relative to average in his first season with Dallas (57 games) and last season. The 2019-20 season was pretty close to this one. Last season, he was pretty significantly better, imo...except in health. He managed just 51 games. In terms of total production, this season will probably end up his best. So I'll back off somewhat. LOL

[gambitx777]

[quote="Endless Loop"...Porzingas has had a heck of a year....

Has KP had a really good year?
He's had some great games, no doubt about it. But, I'd love someone to explain what makes people think he's been outstanding overall.

I'd say, overall, he's been pretty solid. Good. But nothing special.
Of course, I could be wrong, & I'd welcome some showing that to me. Using numbers of course.[/quote]All of his numbers are better than his all star season.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Ooops -- in trying to edit my post to insert a closing bracket on Endless Loop, I seem somehow to have made gambit into its author. I have no idea how that is even possible! Apologies!!

[payitforward]

Here's what Kevin Broom said in the Bullets Forever thread here:
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2023/3/9/23631676/too-many-turnovers-leave-the-wizards-parked-in-10th...

Essentially he says the Wizards lost to the Hawks for the exact same reason I said they lost:

They lost despite outshooting the Hawks (63.9% to 60.0% effective field goal percentage) and finishing about even on the boards. What ultimately cost them the game: turnovers and free throw differential. Washington had 17 turnovers to Atlanta’s 11 and made 14 free throws to the Hawks 20.

He wrote those words for the same reason I wrote them: because they are the truth.
Pretty simple, really.

[payitforward]

Has KP had a really good year?
He's had some great games, no doubt about it. But, I'd love someone to explain what makes people think he's been outstanding overall.

I'd say, overall, he's been pretty solid. Good. But nothing special.
Of course, I could be wrong, & I'd welcome some showing that to me. Using numbers of course.

Here's what Kevin Broom said in the Bullets Forever thread here:
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2023/3/9/23631676/too-many-turnovers-leave-the-wizards-parked-in-10th

I have Porzingis better relative to average in his first season with Dallas (57 games) and last season. The 2019-20 season was pretty close to this one. Last season, he was pretty significantly better, imo...except in health. He managed just 51 games. In terms of total production, this season will probably end up his best. So I'll back off somewhat. LOL

If you want to understand how much most fans understand about basketball, just read this piece of analysis by someone commenting on the same BF thread:

KP's having the best season of his career. Currently third in PTS among C

[Dark Faze]

His Washington games last year were better but the season overall was not when you consider what he was doing in Dallas. The Washington stuff was too small a sample size.

[nate33]

...Porzingas has had a heck of a year....

Has KP had a really good year?
He's had some great games, no doubt about it. But, I'd love someone to explain what makes people think he's been outstanding overall.

I'd say, overall, he's been pretty solid. Good. But nothing special.
Of course, I could be wrong, & I'd welcome some showing that to me. Using numbers of course.

Porzingis is having the best year of his career by nearly every metric I can find.

It's his best season by WS and WS/48
It's his 2nd best season by PER, just barely behind his 21-22 season in which he played just 51 games.
It's his best season by VORP
It's his best season by BPM
It's his best season by RAPTOR and WAR
It's his best season by box score RAPTOR

And compared to the rest of the league:
He ranks 23rd by VORP
He ranks 24th by WS/48
He ranks 20th by WS
He ranks 17th by PER
He ranks 23rd by RAPTOR
He ranks 21st by WAR
He ranks 22nd by EPM

(Literally, the only metric I can find where he fares poorly is Wins Produced/48. And that's a joke of a metric that produces insane results like Robert Williams being the 2nd best player in the league, Brandon Clarke ranking 4th, and Chris freaking Boucher ranking 9th. It has Kevin Durant ranked 38th on a per minute basis, lol. Jayson Tatum is 52nd.)

[GoneShammGone]

...Porzingas has had a heck of a year....

Has KP had a really good year?
He's had some great games, no doubt about it. But, I'd love someone to explain what makes people think he's been outstanding overall.

I'd say, overall, he's been pretty solid. Good. But nothing special.
Of course, I could be wrong, & I'd welcome some showing that to me. Using numbers of course.

Check out this page and sort by "TS Add". https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_adj_shooting.html

KP is 15th in the league in "points added by overall shooting". Its basically TS adjusted for volume. If you look at KP's TS its at a career high .630, which is a little better than average for a Center, and significantly better than average for a PF. Most of the guys ahead of him on the "TS Add" list are centers who rarely shoot outside the paint (including our own Daniel Gafford!). I think its fair to argue that, as a center, KP's efficiency is good, but not elite. But given that we are now starting him at PF, when you compare him to other 4s, its a different story.

The versatility that allows KP to slide to the 4, shoot a high volume, and still maintain a center-like efficiency makes him valuable. Also, lets not forget his defensive contributions. He's obviously not at Embiid or Joker's level, but I think he's solidly in the second tier of non-superstar bigs.

(Note the numbers above help explain why the Wizards have had so much success with a Gaff/KP lineup...)

edit: forgot to add the link....