NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (pt 3)

[eyeatoma]

Giannis gaining fast.

Still can't see Embiid at this point in time.

Since the last straw poll was taken, here are the team records:

BUCKS.......8-1 (3-0 without Giannis)
NUGGS......5-3 (all with Jokic)
SIXERS.......5-3 (1-0 without Embiid)

Sixers recently lost 3 in a row with Embiid, 2 of those coming at home.

Denver's recent stumbles likely help Giannis the most, although of course Embiid also benefits. But with Denver and Philly having the same record since the last straw poll, can't see how Embiid has made up any ground. And he had a huge amount of ground to make up as he was at 490 total points to Jokic's 913.

But there's hope now for Jokic's challengers. I know someone posted Mannix talking to Nick Wright earlier in the thread but Mannix was someone who voted for Embiid last year and was an outlier in that (only 1/4 of the voters had Embiid as their top choice). So he's a guy that has already shown he's ready to pull away from Jokic.

Things are definitely getting more interesting, though. Denver has opened the door up for Giannis and Embiid. We'll see if one of them can walk through it.

Giannis? Huh? He just missed the last 2 games and is questionable again...

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[Floody100]

76ers fans obsessed with this award because they can’t win anything in the post season

[HotRocks34]

Giannis gaining fast.

Still can't see Embiid at this point in time.

Since the last straw poll was taken, here are the team records:

BUCKS.......8-1 (3-0 without Giannis)
NUGGS......5-3 (all with Jokic)
SIXERS.......5-3 (1-0 without Embiid)

Sixers recently lost 3 in a row with Embiid, 2 of those coming at home.

Denver's recent stumbles likely help Giannis the most, although of course Embiid also benefits. But with Denver and Philly having the same record since the last straw poll, can't see how Embiid has made up any ground. And he had a huge amount of ground to make up as he was at 490 total points to Jokic's 913.

But there's hope now for Jokic's challengers. I know someone posted Mannix talking to Nick Wright earlier in the thread but Mannix was someone who voted for Embiid last year and was an outlier in that (only 1/4 of the voters had Embiid as their top choice). So he's a guy that has already shown he's ready to pull away from Jokic.

Things are definitely getting more interesting, though. Denver has opened the door up for Giannis and Embiid. We'll see if one of them can walk through it.

Giannis? Huh? He just missed the last 2 games and is questionable again...

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He's still ahead of Embiid, I would imagine. As he was in the last straw poll.

Giannis has missed 14 games. Embiid 13. That's a negligible difference.

Giannis has 39 individual wins this year, Embiid 35.

And Bucks are the #1 seed.

I can't see an argument for Embiid over either Giannis or Jokic at this time. That could change, but right now that's what I think it is. And Embiid's 4-3 record since the last straw poll hasn't helped him any.

[Wolfgang630]

How is Giannis in it again? Why are missed games not a concern all of a sudden this year?

[HotRocks34]

Just to update my last post:



Since the last straw poll was taken, here are the team records. Counts tonight's 3/10 Friday games:

BUCKS.......8-1 (3-0 without Giannis; 5-1 with Giannis)
NUGGS......5-3 (all with Jokic)
SIXERS.......5-3 (1-0 without Embiid; 4-3 with Embiid)

[Johnny Tomala]

Nick Wright and Jokić haters will be in full force right now.

I will admit that Embiid passed Antetokounmpo for 2nd place but it's still Jokić to lose.

[HotRocks34]

How is Giannis in it again? Why are missed games not a concern all of a sudden this year?

* Best record in the league
* Recently went on super win streak
* Only 1 game missed more than Embiid
* Widely regarded as the most dominant player in the league


I'm not saying Giannis is going to win it, but the other two have slumped a bit since the last straw poll (team record wise, etc). And so Giannis benefits the most from that.

[AleksandarN]

I am glad it is close. It makes it interesting. The big man is back. Everyone should enjoy the 3 best players in the game. Everyone should just appreciate it.

[HotRocks34]

Here's the Mannix-Wright discussion again (from Friday 3/10). Mannix is an MVP voter. The part about things changing since the last straw poll (Jokic way ahead) starts around 16:20 and goes to about 17:25

What Mannix is saying is that Giannis and Jokic are in a dead heat now (in his mind). Nothing about Embiid.

And I agree. The biggest "gainer" since the last straw poll, right now, is Giannis. We just have to see if he'll play enough games to make the cut for the award. Right now he's in a very good spot IMO.

Missed games through 3/10/23:

Jokic........08
Embiid......13
Giannis.....14

Watch on YouTube

[eyeatoma]

Here's the Mannix-Wright discussion again (from Friday 3/10). Mannix is an MVP voter. The part about things changing since the last straw poll (Jokic way ahead) starts around 16:20 and goes to about 17:25

What Mannix is saying is that Giannis and Jokic are in a dead heat now (in his mind). Nothing about Embiid.

And I agree. The biggest "gainer" since the last straw poll, right now, is Giannis. We just have to see if he'll play enough games to make the cut for the award. Right now he's in a very good spot IMO.

Missed games through 3/10/23:

Jokic........08
Embiid......13
Giannis.....14

Watch on YouTube

Mannix is one voter... He doesn't know what everyone is thinking.

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[HotRocks34]

Mannix is one voter... He doesn't know what everyone is thinking.

Mannix voted for Embiid last year.

[Floody100]

Imagine thinking a guy who just dropped 37/11/11 hurt his MVP chances because he lost to a terrible team …
That same terrible team that has already beat Embiid this season.

Let’s also not act like the 76ers fans wouldn’t be praising the hell out of Embiid if he put up that stat line regardless of the opposition or if it was a loss.

[losmi]

If we use this weird logic, then Joker also has the most losses, so he shouldn't be in the conversation either?

So congrats Giannis?

What's weird about counting wins? That's the goal of the game.

It's fine if you also count losses. Otherwise it's not an objective argument.

Imagine two players, both played 30 games and have 20 wins and 10 losses. Then player A misses 9 games, while player B gets 6 more wins and 3 losses. Who was more valuable in those 39 games, the one with fewer losses or the one with more wins?

[HotRocks34]

Imagine thinking a guy who just dropped 37/11/11 hurt his MVP chances because he lost to a terrible team …
That same terrible team that has already beat Embiid this season.

Let’s also not act like the 76ers fans wouldn’t be praising the hell out of Embiid if he put up that stat line regardless of the opposition or if it was a loss.

Jokic was great. A few too many turnovers, but he was great.

Bad loss. Porter getting ejected hurt, and guys on the Spurs like Mamu and McBuckets stepped up. Credit to them.

Nuggs have been playing loose the last few games. And they're not a great road team.

For the MVP race, it's not a great look. For the team, they'll be ok but plenty to work on and they still have some roster flaws (defense, bench).

[Kurtz]

What's weird about counting wins? That's the goal of the game.

It's fine if you also count losses. Otherwise it's not an objective argument.

Imagine two players, both played 30 games and have 20 wins and 10 losses. Then player A misses 9 games, while player B gets 6 more wins and 3 losses. Who was more valuable in those 39 games, the one with fewer losses or the one with more wins?

What you're talking about is the missed games argument, which is absolutely a valid argument. That stands on it's own merits, there's no need for a reframing. But just comparing each guy's individual wins is not a valid argument. You'd be closer to the mark by comparing their team's winning % in the games they played.

I can also point out that Denver's had the easiest sched in the league out of any of these contenders, and that the games Joker missed were against playoff opponents (7 of 8) mostly on the road (5 of 8), so that boosts his personal winning % too. But I don't think that'll be a factor in the minds of voters.

[greekbuck34]

Imagine thinking a guy who just dropped 37/11/11 hurt his MVP chances because he lost to a terrible team …
That same terrible team that has already beat Embiid this season.

Let’s also not act like the 76ers fans wouldn’t be praising the hell out of Embiid if he put up that stat line regardless of the opposition or if it was a loss.

Dude the big guy can't defend. 37/11/11 looks great but the worst team in the NBA, playing g-league players scored 68 points at the rim and he is their main rim protector and at the same time main problem of their defense. Random players see Jokic in front of them and they feel they can just drive by him and score. The Nuggets option is either to play deep drop defense and allow the opponent to shoot wide open shots or break their defense and double team everytime Jokic is left with a quicker than him player.

[Wolfgang630]

Idk how the Nuggets didn’t get a real rim protector with Jokic or at least play behind him. This to me will be their biggest mistake and they won’t win a championship because of it.

[HotRocks34]

Imagine thinking a guy who just dropped 37/11/11 hurt his MVP chances because he lost to a terrible team …
That same terrible team that has already beat Embiid this season.

Let’s also not act like the 76ers fans wouldn’t be praising the hell out of Embiid if he put up that stat line regardless of the opposition or if it was a loss.

NBA Efficiency is a simple metric that's used to give a sense of how a player does in a game. It's like a simple PER-type formula.

NBA EFFICIENCY = (Pts + Rbs + Ast + Stl + Blk) - (Missed FG + Missed FT + TO)


Efficiency scores for tonight's games, with minutes played:


Jokic --------> 46 efficiency score in 39 minutes
Embiid ------> 39 efficiency score in 38 minutes


Also, just doing some quick calculations, it looks like team DRTG's tonight were like DEN 120 and PHI around 124. Of course, POR is a better offensive team than SAS is.

[HotRocks34]

Idk how the Nuggets didn’t get a real rim protector with Jokic or at least play behind him. This to me will be their biggest mistake and they won’t win a championship because of it.

The roster isn't set yet. Hopefully this summer they'll dial in the roster a bit more.

Booth (GM) is good. He's done a solid job so far.

[losmi]

It's fine if you also count losses. Otherwise it's not an objective argument.

Imagine two players, both played 30 games and have 20 wins and 10 losses. Then player A misses 9 games, while player B gets 6 more wins and 3 losses. Who was more valuable in those 39 games, the one with fewer losses or the one with more wins?

What you're talking about is the missed games argument, which is absolutely a valid argument. That stands on it's own merits, there's no need for a reframing. But just comparing each guy's individual wins is not a valid argument. You'd be closer to the mark by comparing their team's winning % in the games they played.

I can also point out that Denver's had the easiest sched in the league out of any of these contenders, and that the games Joker missed were against playoff opponents (7 of 8) mostly on the road (5 of 8), so that boosts his personal winning % too. But I don't think that'll be a factor in the minds of voters.

So, you see. With win%, you need to also take into account missed games, strength of opponents, etc. etc.

Why so many parameters when the logic can be fairly simple? More wins = more value.

You play and win = contribution to your team record, which is the main goal

You play and lose = you don't play and you team loses = you don't play and your team wins = no contribution