Jimmy Butler vs Manu Ginobili

[durantbird]

Who's better in peak?

[rand]

Per minute Ginobili, but the volume/durability concerns are a factor. I think their value is very close but your team will have a higher ceiling with Manu and a higher floor with Jimmy.

[GSP]

Per minute Ginobili, but the volume/durability concerns are a factor. I think their value is very close but your team will have a higher ceiling with Manu and a higher floor with Jimmy.

Jimmy not exactly an iron man himself if we take Miami Jimmy as peak. After his 2nd year he only played 70 games one time. In Miami he's averaged 55 games played a season at 33 mins per game. His first year in Minnesota he played 59 games at 36 mins per. If we use Chicago Jimmy as peak when he was much more durable he loses a lot of playoff value b/c he's been far better in playoffs since he left Minnesota

[rand]

Per minute Ginobili, but the volume/durability concerns are a factor. I think their value is very close but your team will have a higher ceiling with Manu and a higher floor with Jimmy.

Jimmy not exactly an iron man himself if we take Miami Jimmy as peak. After his 2nd year he only played 70 games one time. In Miami he's averaged 55 games played a season at 33 mins per game. His first year in Minnesota he played 59 games at 36 mins per. If we use Chicago Jimmy as peak when he was much more durable he loses a lot of playoff value b/c he's been far better in playoffs since he left Minnesota

Regarding Miami it has to be remembered that two of the three completed seasons had 73 and 72 games due to COVID. In Miami, Butler has played 71% of regular season games and 98% of postseason games. That's with a bout of COVID that cost him 10 games. It also has to be remembered that Butler has played through the most conservative era with regard to sitting players. There are probably an average of 2-3 games per season where Butler sits in condition which would have had him playing 20 years ago.

Minutes per game is a larger volume/durability issue than missed regular season games. Despite the number of regular season games Butler and Ginobili missed, both played almost every playoff game for their team. But in the playoffs 2005 Ginobili only played 33.8 MPG (this still being a substantial raise over his regular season MPG) while Miami Butler plays 37.8 in higher pace games. Ginobili's postseason career high MPG was only 35.2, his 2005-2011 average was 32.8. Over the course of a deep playoff run this adds up to a lot of possessions a team gets with Butler on the court that it doesn't with Ginobili.

[rate_]

Per minute Ginobili, but the volume/durability concerns are a factor. I think their value is very close but your team will have a higher ceiling with Manu and a higher floor with Jimmy.

How is it higher ceiling with Manu? Manu never had the type of playoff run Jimmy had last season for example (27-7-5, 11.8 BPM, 29.9 PER). Jimmy has shown to be more high variance scorer with 6 40+ point playoff games his last 3 runs. Manu has never had a 40 point game in his playoff career.

[rand]

Per minute Ginobili, but the volume/durability concerns are a factor. I think their value is very close but your team will have a higher ceiling with Manu and a higher floor with Jimmy.

How is it higher ceiling with Manu? Manu never had the type of playoff run Jimmy had last season for example (27-7-5, 11.8 BPM, 29.9 PER). Jimmy has shown to be more high variance scorer with 6 40+ point playoff games his last 3 runs. Manu has never had a 40 point game in his playoff career.

2005 Manu's playoff BPM was 9.2. A gap of 2.6 BPM may look imposing but 2000 and 2001 Shaq only had playoff BPMs of 8.1 and 6.5. Curry has never had a playoff BPM above 9.7. KD's playoff career high is 10.0. At the high end of the scale I suspect BPM starts to get pretty wild in how much it can misalign from real impact.

Playoff TS Add
2005 Manu 154.2
2022 Jimmy 100.7

Manu was #1 in the league in RAPM in the 2005 regular season and he was even better in the playoffs (Manu also has several other top-5 RAPM seasons while Jimmy's highest finish was #6). Manu brought 20 PPG on .652 TS% in the playoffs. He was the Spurs playoff MVP and should have been FMVP. Manu put up 18.7 PPG on .636 TS% on the historically great Pistons defense for a Spurs team that averaged .518 TS% and just 84.9 PPG. The series was played at 80.8 pace while Miami's average pace in the 2022 postseason was 94.2. Quoting the number of 40 point playoff games from each player ignores these massive pace disparities.

2005 Manu (34.1) was just behind 3.6 points per 100 possessions behind 2022 Jimmy (37.7). So Manu was bringing 10% less volume scoring per possession but at a 4.8% advantage in TS% (.652 to .Butler's .604) even without considering the lower efficiency environment Ginobili played in. FWIW 2005 Manu had a +7.4 advantage in playoff On/Off over 2022 Butler.

Wrap it all together and I conclude that peak Manu was bringing marginally higher per minute impact than Jimmy but a marginal advantage in minutes by Jimmy may neutralize their value. If that's true then rosters being equal it would mean Manu's team would have a slight edge in their closing lineups.

Anyway, I think it's close all around and if someone disagrees about Manu's higher impact then I think there is a reasonable case but I think the analysis is necessarily more complex than simply comparing BPMs.

[rate_]

Spoiler:

Per minute Ginobili, but the volume/durability concerns are a factor. I think their value is very close but your team will have a higher ceiling with Manu and a higher floor with Jimmy.

How is it higher ceiling with Manu? Manu never had the type of playoff run Jimmy had last season for example (27-7-5, 11.8 BPM, 29.9 PER). Jimmy has shown to be more high variance scorer with 6 40+ point playoff games his last 3 runs. Manu has never had a 40 point game in his playoff career.

2005 Manu's playoff BPM was 9.2. A gap of 2.6 BPM may look imposing but 2000 and 2001 Shaq only had playoff BPMs of 8.1 and 6.5. Curry has never had a playoff BPM above 9.7. KD's playoff career high is 10.0. At the high end of the scale I suspect BPM starts to get pretty wild in how much it can misalign from real impact.

Playoff TS Add
2005 Manu 154.2
2022 Jimmy 100.7

Manu was #1 in the league in RAPM in the 2005 regular season and he was even better in the playoffs (Manu also has several other top-5 RAPM seasons while Jimmy's highest finish was #6). Manu brought 20 PPG on .652 TS% in the playoffs. He was the Spurs playoff MVP and should have been FMVP. Manu put up 18.7 PPG on .636 TS% on the historically great Pistons defense for a Spurs team that averaged .518 TS% and just 84.9 PPG. The series was played at 80.8 pace while Miami's average pace in the 2022 postseason was 94.2. Quoting the number of 40 point playoff games from each player ignores these massive pace disparities.

2005 Manu (34.1) was just behind 3.6 points per 100 possessions behind 2022 Jimmy (37.7). So Manu was bringing 10% less volume scoring per possession but at a 4.8% advantage in TS% (.652 to .Butler's .604) even without considering the lower efficiency environment Ginobili played in. FWIW 2005 Manu had a +7.4 advantage in playoff On/Off over 2022 Butler.

Wrap it all together and I conclude that peak Manu was bringing marginally higher per minute impact than Jimmy but a marginal advantage in minutes by Jimmy may neutralize their value. If that's true then rosters being equal it would mean Manu's team would have a slight edge in their closing lineups.

Anyway, I think it's close all around and if someone disagrees about Manu's higher impact then I think there is a reasonable case but I think the analysis is necessarily more complex than simply comparing BPMs.

Manu is a high impact player in limited minutes. But, maintaining the same level of play or impact in increased minutes is not linear as you're projecting. So you can't extrapolate his impact to conclude that he would've been more impactful overall if both were given the same cast and load. Jimmy was able to sustain impact on a greater load, which is impressive considering efficiency usually regresses in increased minutes. There are elements in your argument that aren't accounted for like teammate quality and offensive load relative to their teams. All of those guys you listed as examples against the BPM argument have much bigger responsibilities on offense to their teams than Manu. You referenced Manu's 9.2 BPM in the playoffs but during that run he wasn't even the team's leading scorer. It's much harder to put up numbers being the primary focus of opposing defenses than otherwise. That's why even though you ignored it, Jimmy's 27/7/5 was referenced with the BPM because it implies he played a bigger role while maintaining similar impact.

[Jaivl]

2005 Manu played 34 mpg compared to 2022 Butler's 37. Hardly a huge difference.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Yeah 2022 playoff Jimmy had injury issues, but man when he was healthy he was the best in the league lol

[Pelly24]

Jimmy I feel like is one of the most underrated wings in league history. Basically like a 22/7/7 guy on +5 TS% with elite defense, clutch ability, ability to run an offense, ability to be any option between 1 and 3 without losing much effectiveness. In a vacuum, I'd say he's been a top 10 or so player for like 5 or 6 years now, and if Miami had a proper No. 2 scoring option they'd have a legit shot at a chip. He's had two playoff runs that were among the most incredible for any wing recently, especially 2022, and in 2020 he matched LeBron in the finals. Manu I think would also likely be a top 10 player today, but give it to Jimmy based on more proven output as a No. 1 option. Jimmy took bad teams to the playoffs, a really good team to the finals, generally held his own or better in the playoffs.

[HeartBreakKid]

Per minute Ginobili, but the volume/durability concerns are a factor. I think their value is very close but your team will have a higher ceiling with Manu and a higher floor with Jimmy.

How is it higher ceiling with Manu? Manu never had the type of playoff run Jimmy had last season for example (27-7-5, 11.8 BPM, 29.9 PER). Jimmy has shown to be more high variance scorer with 6 40+ point playoff games his last 3 runs. Manu has never had a 40 point game in his playoff career.

Why would Manu need to have a 40 point game? Also, he played in the 00s - you're comparing that to 2019+. Standards for scoring were different.

[Doctor MJ]

Per minute Ginobili, but the volume/durability concerns are a factor. I think their value is very close but your team will have a higher ceiling with Manu and a higher floor with Jimmy.

How is it higher ceiling with Manu? Manu never had the type of playoff run Jimmy had last season for example (27-7-5, 11.8 BPM, 29.9 PER). Jimmy has shown to be more high variance scorer with 6 40+ point playoff games his last 3 runs. Manu has never had a 40 point game in his playoff career.

2005 Manu's playoff BPM was 9.2. A gap of 2.6 BPM may look imposing but 2000 and 2001 Shaq only had playoff BPMs of 8.1 and 6.5. Curry has never had a playoff BPM above 9.7. KD's playoff career high is 10.0. At the high end of the scale I suspect BPM starts to get pretty wild in how much it can misalign from real impact.

Playoff TS Add
2005 Manu 154.2
2022 Jimmy 100.7

Manu was #1 in the league in RAPM in the 2005 regular season and he was even better in the playoffs (Manu also has several other top-5 RAPM seasons while Jimmy's highest finish was #6). Manu brought 20 PPG on .652 TS% in the playoffs. He was the Spurs playoff MVP and should have been FMVP. Manu put up 18.7 PPG on .636 TS% on the historically great Pistons defense for a Spurs team that averaged .518 TS% and just 84.9 PPG. The series was played at 80.8 pace while Miami's average pace in the 2022 postseason was 94.2. Quoting the number of 40 point playoff games from each player ignores these massive pace disparities.

2005 Manu (34.1) was just behind 3.6 points per 100 possessions behind 2022 Jimmy (37.7). So Manu was bringing 10% less volume scoring per possession but at a 4.8% advantage in TS% (.652 to .Butler's .604) even without considering the lower efficiency environment Ginobili played in. FWIW 2005 Manu had a +7.4 advantage in playoff On/Off over 2022 Butler.

Wrap it all together and I conclude that peak Manu was bringing marginally higher per minute impact than Jimmy but a marginal advantage in minutes by Jimmy may neutralize their value. If that's true then rosters being equal it would mean Manu's team would have a slight edge in their closing lineups.

Anyway, I think it's close all around and if someone disagrees about Manu's higher impact then I think there is a reasonable case but I think the analysis is necessarily more complex than simply comparing BPMs.

I think sums it up nicely for me.

I actually think both of these guys have tended to be underrated and deserve a ton of respect, but the 6th man role the Spurs put Ginobili into has - I think - made him one of the most underrated players in all of basketball history.

If you believe that Ginobili truly needed to play this role at all times because he had a near-unique lack of endurance, I certainly understand having him below Butler and a bunch of other guys that I don't, because I don't believe this was so.

I think the more basketball-plausible explanation for why a guy who was just the big minute guy on the Gold Medal winning non-USA got slotted in as a 6th man is that his style of play got in the way of the offense the Spurs wanted to keep running around Duncan. We know Ginobili's tendency to ignore "the play" in favor of improvising pissed people on the Spurs off, so staggering his minutes makes a lot of sense if you don't understand that Ginobili's improvisation results in better offense than the scheme you so carefully architected.

[penbeast0]

Jimmy I feel like is one of the most underrated wings in league history. Basically like a 22/7/7 guy on +5 TS% with elite defense, clutch ability, ability to run an offense, ability to be any option between 1 and 3 without losing much effectiveness. In a vacuum, I'd say he's been a top 10 or so player for like 5 or 6 years now, and if Miami had a proper No. 2 scoring option they'd have a legit shot at a chip. He's had two playoff runs that were among the most incredible for any wing recently, especially 2022, and in 2020 he matched LeBron in the finals. Manu I think would also likely be a top 10 player today, but give it to Jimmy based on more proven output as a No. 1 option. Jimmy took bad teams to the playoffs, a really good team to the finals, generally held his own or better in the playoffs.

Butler approached those stats once in his career (6.9/7.1/21.5 in 2021). His actual career averages are 18/5/4. IF you look at Manu the same way, he would be a 20/5/5 guy with +13 TS+ in a weaker offensive era though Butler's minutes and numbers are more consistent.

[rim213221]

Butler deserves to go down with Malone, Barkley, Nash, Stockton, Harden, Reggie, Paul, Lillard, Ewing etc as one of the greatest ringless players to ever play the game. Absolute monster when it matters the most with some deep playoffs runs and an unexpected Finals appearance as well as another near Finals appearance last season, all as clearly the best player on his own team.