MJ in Magic's place: how many titles?

[rand]

Let's say Jordan came into the league in the 1979 draft instead of Magic and was drafted by the Lakers. Assuming everything else about the teams stays the same -- the rosters and the coaches -- how many titles does Jordan end up winning?

MJ's baseball season (1994) is passed over so 1993 Jordan replaces Magic on the 1988 Lakers and 1995 Jordan replaces Magic on the 1989 Lakers. 1998 Jordan plays in Magic's place on the 1996 Lakers. Wizards Jordan is discarded. All historical injuries are carried over, so Jordan only plays 19 regular season games in 1986 but is healthy for the playoffs.

Note also that in this hypothetical Magic takes Jordan's place on the Bulls starting in 1985.

[No-more-rings]

I’d imagine 7 or more. Jordan gives you comparable offense to Magic, while helping them defensively on the perimeter.

[pipfan]

all of them

just joking-I would say 6 or 7

[AEnigma]

Well, fit matters.

1980: better fit with Norm Nixon. May or may not be a title. I am not sure I see them winning that Game 6 against the 76ers, but they could, and if not, I think Kareem was supposed to return for Game 7 anyway. Net result = possibly worse.

1981: Better in the postseason, but are they better by enough to beat the Celtics? Probably not. Net result = better but likely not enough to win a title.

1982: Should still win this title. Net result = same.

1983: Better, but the 1983 76ers were an all-time team, so skeptical they win this title. Net result = better but likely not enough to win a title.

1984: This is where it gets interesting, because Norm Nixon is off the team, and James Worthy’s primacy is increasing. Without Nixon, Cooper becomes the full-time point guard, and Jordan is the functional backup, and with Worthy’s increasing primacy, Jordan starts to suffer the role overlap that Magic had with Nixon. Anyway, Magic famously was a bit of a letdown at the end of the Finals… but against a strong defensive Celtics team, with everyone in their defensive prime, worth highlighting that this equates to 1989 Jordan, and 1989 Jordan was still struggling to close out the Pistons. Net result = unclear, but conceivably could be a title.

1985: again, Nixon’s absence is an issue, but Bird hurt his hand so this probably should still be a win. Net result = unclear but title still likely.

1986: Magic is comfortably in his prime, which means the gap between him and Jordan is now smaller than it was for the past few seasons. Nixon also gets injured this year, so even if we hypothetically say the Lakers would have kept him, that is the end of his relevance. Considering that the Lakers would need to win two series to swing this, a title seems unlikely. Net result = unclear but title still unlikely.

1987: this team is worse in the regular season. Jordan is no longer at his absolute peak, and he is replacing the peak version of Magic. They still have no point guard aside from Cooper, and there is no Norm Nixon to hypothetically maintain that. Is that enough in the postseason? Maybe, but net result = worse but title still plausible/likely.

1988: Hm, 1993 Jordan versus the 1998 Pistons… Net result: unclear but title still plausible.

1989: probably a second round exit because 1995 Jordan makes this team bad. If we skipped 1995, then it becomes interesting, but 1996 Jordan is not overly well-suited for the peak Pistons either, and with the team not in great health, and with Cooper declining, there is no real shot at a title year.

1990: same as 1989 in that the team is potentially better but Jordan is probably not good enough to carry them to a title over some rough matchups.

1991: Uhhh this team is a lot worse than the 1991 Bulls with a cloned Jordan, and the Bulls likely do not draft Pippen if they had Magic, and the Lakers should still be in bad shape when they arrive in the Finals, so I will just say no.

Final count = better odds at a title in 1981, 1983, and 1984, with 1984 being the best chance. Maintain a title in 1982. Probably maintain a title in 1980, 1985, and 1987, depending on certain assumptions. Likely still fail to win a title in 1986 and 1989-91. 1988 could go either way. On balance, 4-7 titles, narrowing to 5 or 6. Probably will not vote because of all the assumptions involved, but while saying 6 is not unreasonable, it is not as comfortable a stance as just saying, Oh well twelve years of Jordan is better than twelve years of Magic so yeah he definitely wins more no matter how the teams are built.

[OdomFan]

MJ and Worthy won an NCAA championship together, so that chemistry should help the Lakers chances to win in the NBA alongside of having Kareem on the inside. Only big thing they'd need to do is get themselves a starting caliber point guard since MJ would likely be at the 2 spot. That's the only big question mark I have there. Maybe they could run with Michael Cooper at the 1, but i don't know. I think they'd need someone else.

[magicman1978]

Lakers offense is better with Magic running the show - don't know if Jordan moves the needle enough on defense. I think the team would need to be rebuilt around Jordan's strengths. I could see them winning less - 4 titles. Building to Jordan's strengths - I could see 6, maybe 7.

[pipfan]

MJ becomes more of a PG, with Scott still being his running mate for most of the decade.