Your Top 20 in the 2023 NBA Draft Going in to the NCAA Tournament

[UcanUwill]

At the moment, this is where I'm at:

Rank Player
1 Victor Wembanyama
2 Scoot Henderson
3 Brandon Miller
4 Amen Thompson
5 Cam Whitmore
6 Ausar Thompson
7 Jarace Walker
8 Taylor Hendricks
9 Anthony Black
10 Nick Smith Jr.
11 Cason Wallace
12 Brice Sensabaugh
13 Keyonte George
14 GG Jackson
15 Gradey Dick
16 Noah Clowney
17 Jett Howard
18 Kyle Filipowski
19 Kris Murray
20 Sidy Cissoko

Are you Kevin O'Connor by chance? Sounds very Kevin O'bomberish.

[Hal14]

At the moment, this is where I'm at:

Rank Player
1 Victor Wembanyama
2 Scoot Henderson
3 Brandon Miller
4 Amen Thompson
5 Cam Whitmore
6 Ausar Thompson
7 Jarace Walker
8 Taylor Hendricks
9 Anthony Black
10 Nick Smith Jr.
11 Cason Wallace
12 Brice Sensabaugh
13 Keyonte George
14 GG Jackson
15 Gradey Dick
16 Noah Clowney
17 Jett Howard
18 Kyle Filipowski
19 Kris Murray
20 Sidy Cissoko

Are you Kevin O'Connor by chance? Sounds very Kevin O'bomberish.

No, why?

[Chi town]

I find it really interesting that just about the entire scouting community is a lot higher on the Thompson twins than pretty much the entirety of RealGm is and vice versa with Hendricks. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

I believe mass media mocks like Lowe, Givony, KoC, Tankathon, Bleacher Report largely care only about upside.

This board likes to discuss downside for each and every prospect to death. Perhaps the Thompsons takes here have been poisoned beyond repair, but I do not believe they can possibly be the #3/4 based on their downside.

Their floor due to athleticism, frame, and skill set is a starter that fills the box score and defends. Winning player.

[Chi town]

I don't get why people have Jett Howard higher than JHS. JHS is a way better playmaker...what does Jett do besides shoot?

I just feel more confident that Jett’s shooting will translate than JHS playmaking skillset. Jett has a higher floor and he’s big enough you can play him at PF defensively. Basically as long as the team that drafts him doesn’t exclusively switch on defense so guards can easily hunt him on the perimeter I think he could be serviceable there too.

If Jett adds muscle and core strength he’s a PF. I don’t think he can slim down and a be a Klay either.

[babyjax13]

1. Wembenyama
2. Henderson
3. George
4. Miller
5. Whitmore
6. Black
7. Amen
8. Jackson
9. Sensabaugh
10. Ausar
11. Wallace
12. Walker
13. Smith Jr.
14. Howard
15. Council
16. Whitehead
17. Lewis
18. Cleveland
19. Wilson
20. Hendricks

A lot of these are pretty soft, though, could see a lot of changes.

1. Wembenyama
2. Henderson
3. Miller
4. George
5. Ausar
6. Amen
7. Whitmore
8. Black
9. Hendricks
10. Walker
11. Wallace
12. Jackson
13. Smith Jr.
14. Howard
15. Whitehead
16. Council
17. Cleveland
18. Lewis
19. Wilson
20. Sensabaugh

Closer to this, now.

[The-Power]

TOP 30

1. Victor Wembanyama

2. Brandon Miller

3. Scoot Henderson
4. Jarace Walker
5. Anthony Black
6. Sidy Cissoko
7. Taylor Hendricks
8. Cam Whitmore
9. Keyonte George

--- 10 to 30 not in a strict order (but less confidence in the players towards the end) –––
Kris Murray
Jordan Hawkins
Cason Wallace
Jett Howard
Brice Sensabaugh
Grady Dick
Ausar Thompson
Julian Phillips
Dariq Whitehead
Amen Thompson
Nick Smith
Leonard Miller
Jaylen Clark
Dereck Lively
G.G. Jackson
Kevin McCullar
Jalen Wilson
Kobe Bufkin
Maxwell Lewis
Marcus Sasser
Kobe Johnson

I'm sure I'm missing someone obvious. A couple players are right on the fringe and could easily jump up and into the list as I think more about the post-lottery rankings.

[Hal14]

I don't get why people have Jett Howard higher than JHS. JHS is a way better playmaker...what does Jett do besides shoot?

I just feel more confident that Jett’s shooting will translate than JHS playmaking skillset. Jett has a higher floor and he’s big enough you can play him at PF defensively. Basically as long as the team that drafts him doesn’t exclusively switch on defense so guards can easily hunt him on the perimeter I think he could be serviceable there too.

If Jett adds muscle and core strength he’s a PF. I don’t think he can slim down and a be a Klay either.

He's got a 5.0% rebounding % in college. No way he can play PF.

I suppose it's possible, if he adds muscle and really puts in the effort to crash the boards more..

[Hal14]

You guys are crazy if you think this guy isn't going top 10.

38% from 3 in the playoffs. 44% from 3 in the OTE finals. Hit the game winning 3 to win the championship.

MVP of the league.

Won the OTE championship last season (by beating his twin, Amen) and won OTE championship this season. Also, won state title in 2021 in HS.

Watch on YouTube

I'm mainly talking to the guy above who's got Cissoko and Anthony Black and Keyonte over both twins..

[Braggins]

Ausar is 33.3% from 3pt and 70.0% ft for the season. At 20 years old against OTE competition, that isn't super convincing. Anthony Black is 12 months younger and is at 31.0%*/69.6% against better competition (pretty sure his TS% is slightly higher too). I like Ausar as the better Thompson twin and have been moving him up my rankings, but I still have a hard time considering him until I get to the point where I'm not really excited about any of the other prospects, which happens around around 9th for me (have Dick/Whitmore @ 7/8 currently).

People are nitpicking Scoots GLeague production, but his per minute scoring and assist rates are higher than Ausars and hes at 32.4% 3pt(nba line) and 75.0% ft. Hes also 12 months younger and has a better ast/tov ratio.

I haven't seen the updated numbers, but as of a few weeks before the end of the OTE season someone posted some shooting breakdowns of Ausar from synergy and his halfcourt vs transition breakdown had some major red flags. Seemed liked his already suspect efficiency was being propped up by a large ratio of transition vs halfcourt possessions in OTE play and was really inefficient outside of transition.

I still have a hard time placing the Thompsons, but I don't like the risk vs some of the other guys I view as top 10 prospects.

* edit: I hadn't updated my stats for him to include his last game.

[Hal14]

Ausar is 33.3% from 3pt and 70.0% ft for the season. At 20 years old against OTE competition, that isn't super convincing. Anthony Black is 12 months younger and is at 32.1%/69.6% against better competition (pretty sure his TS% is slightly higher too). I like Ausar as the better Thompson twin and have been moving him up my rankings, but I still have a hard time considering him until I get to the point where I'm not really excited about any of the other prospects, which happens around around 9th for me (have Dick/Whitmore @ 7/8 currently).

So your only reasoning for ranking Black over Ausar is because Black is a year younger, and had somewhat similar shooting splits while facing tough competition? Is that it?

-Competition doesn't really affect 3 pt % that much.
-Black is at 31% from 3, not 32.1%
-So we have Black at 31% on 2.6 attempts per game, compared to Ausar at 33.3% on 4.7 attempts per game. It's not very close here. Ausar with a higher % on MUCH higher volume. Volume matters
-Black has a low shooting release - he shoots it in front of his face which means a) more likely to get blocked and b) harder to see the hoop. Ausar has cleaner mechanics - he's cleaned his mechanics up even more over the past few games (hence the jump in his 3 pt % from 30% in reg season to 39% in playoffs)
-Ausar is also trending up as a shooter. He's showing good improvement. Went from 30% from 3 on 3.8 attempts per game in reg season to 39% from 3 on 8 attempts per game in the playoffs. That's a huge jump! The playoffs were 5 games. So over their last 5 games, we have Ausar at 39% on 8 attempts a game vs Black with 25% on 2.4 attempts per game. It's not even close..
-You seem to be implying that you also have Whitmore and Gradey ranked higher than Ausar...why?

Look, I think you might be thinking about the twins the wrong way. Here's a different way to think about them:

What other prospects have we seen who are 6’7" or above & possess the level of athleticism + defensive upside + passing feel + ball handling that the Thompson twins have shown? LeBron is the only one I can think of. In a recent interview with Shams, LeBron was the 1 guy who both of the twins said they have watched a lot and try to play like. Maybe Grant Hill if we really go that far back?

Perhaps Scottie Barnes, but he doesn't seem to be quite at the Thompsons level in any of those 4 areas. Also, Barnes doesn't have Ausar's cutting ability and he doesn't have Amen's ability to finish at/near the rim.

Ben Simmons is another. He's taller than the twins, but not as athletic.

That's pretty much it.

LeBron, Grant Hill, Scottie Barnes, Ben Simmons. Simmons is more of a comp for Amen (since they're more PG than wings and worse shooters than these other guys) and maybe you throw Scottie Pippen out there as another comp for Ausar (since they're more wings than PG and can shoot better).

Those are the only guys who even remotely resemble the twins. 1 of them is arguably the GOAT, 1 of them is a hall of famer and would likely be a top 25 player of all time if it weren't for injuries. 1 of them was the #4 pick who then won ROY. 1 was an all-NBA player and all-NBA defender before injuries and mental issues derailed his career. And the other is a top 25 player of all-time.

So my question is, how can they not go top 10?

TBF, Black isn't too far behind the twins in terms of defensive upside or passing feel. But the twins are in a different tier (probably a couple of different tiers) in terms of athleticism. Also, the twins have a much better handle than Black. The suspect handle, paired with the shooting concerns will make it tough for Black to be a starting PG in the league - I see him more as a Dyson Daniels type of prospect.

Also, before you said you had never seen the twins play. Is that still the case? Why even rank these guys if you don't watch them play?

[eminence]

Lol. Scottie Barnes is not their floor or even close to it.

[The-Power]

You guys are crazy if you think this guy isn't going top 10.

This is not a mock draft, it's a big board.

I'm mainly talking to the guy above who's got Cissoko and Anthony Black and Keyonte over both twins..

If you're mainly talking to me, you could actually quote me and indicate that.

Either way, we had this conversation and I see that you're still trying to sell these prospects rather than actually talking about them (as evidenced by reference to single-game 3P% as if that means anything). We both know you get emotional when someone has more concerns about the twins than you do and accuse everyone of not watching them or hating on them while appealing to authority. So this ‘discussion’ is not going anywhere.

You should just learn to accept that other people have other opinions. It's not that hard. And if you disagree, which is perfectly fine, you could also seek out a discussion. You know, asking me about why I have certain players ahead of them and where we may disagree instead of reacting as if it's offensive to be lower on the prospects you like.

[mattao313]

Lol. Scottie Barnes is not their floor or even close to it.

People are crazy when they say a guys floor is a starting quality player. Like 95% of guys floors are out of the league or end of the bench guys

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

[eminence]

Lol. Scottie Barnes is not their floor or even close to it.

People are crazy when they say a guys floor is a starting quality player. Like 95% of guys floors are out of the league or end of the bench guys

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

Luka (very different type than Barnes), is like the one wing guy I’ve had that high of floor for the last however many years, and he was the dang MVP.

[The-Power]

Lol. Scottie Barnes is not their floor or even close to it.

People are crazy when they say a guys floor is a starting quality player. Like 95% of guys floors are out of the league or end of the bench guys

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

Luka (very different type than Barnes), is like the one wing guy I’ve had that high of floor for the last however many years, and he was the dang MVP.

I think it makes more sense to talk about realistic lower-end outcomes. Because technically, the absolute floor is always a career-ending injury or something else that washes you out of the NBA – even for the very best players. I think you, eminence, have used 20th-percentile and 80th-percentile outcomes for that reason, right? I think in terms of 20th-percentile outcome you may have a couple more players that project to be low-end starters in the NBA but it's still rare* and there's no way someone as unproven as the twins with reasonable doubts about their shooting ability (perhaps _the_ most critical threshold to pass to determine your NBA future besides a certain physical threshold that players need to pass) has that kind of floor.

*I think for the players listed below, the 20th-percentile outcome is/was still a starting-level player for at least parts of their career (since 2017):
2017: (Tatum)
2018: Luka, Mikal, (JJJr)
2019: Zion
2020: –
2021: Cade, (Mobley)
2022: (Murray, Smith Jr.)
2023: Victor, Miller

In () are ones that I would probably add but I could see reasonable cases against them. Key seems to be to have positional versatility, pass a certain positional shooting threshold (except for Zion), and be at least capable on defense (except perhaps Luka). Anyone who is not either a transcendent physical force (Zion) or transcendent Point Forward (Luka) with unprecedented production at their respective levels has their high-level floor because they can be seamlessly integrated into different line-ups and have clear path to succeed in a more limited role.

[eminence]

People are crazy when they say a guys floor is a starting quality player. Like 95% of guys floors are out of the league or end of the bench guys

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

Luka (very different type than Barnes), is like the one wing guy I’ve had that high of floor for the last however many years, and he was the dang MVP.

I think it makes more sense to talk about realistic lower-end outcomes. Because technically, the absolute floor is always a career-ending injury or something else that washes you out of the NBA – even for the very best players. I think you, eminence, have used 20th-percentile and 80th-percentile outcomes for that reason, right? I think in terms of 20th-percentile outcome you may have a couple more players that project to be low-end starters in the NBA but it's still rare* and there's no way someone as unproven as the twins with reasonable doubts about their shooting ability (perhaps _the_ most critical threshold to pass to determine your NBA future besides a certain physical threshold that players need to pass) has that kind of floor.

*I think for the players listed below, the 20th-percentile outcome is/was still a starting-level player for at least parts of their career (since 2017):
2017: (Tatum)
2018: Luka, Mikal, (JJJr)
2019: Zion
2020: –
2021: Cade, (Mobley)
2022: (Murray, Smith Jr.)
2023: Victor, Miller

In () are ones that I would probably add but I could see reasonable cases against them. Key seems to be to have positional versatility, pass a certain positional shooting threshold (except for Zion), and be at least capable on defense (except perhaps Luka). Anyone who is not either a transcendent physical force (Zion) or transcendent Point Forward (Luka) with unprecedented production at their respective levels has their high-level floor because they can be seamlessly integrated into different line-ups and have clear path to succeed in a more limited role.

I think I focus a bit more on that 80th percentile outcome these days, so a bit more fuzzy on where I think the 20th is, but agreed with a lot here.

A few of the listed guys not included simply due to the wing criteria. I do think Tatum/Mikal/Jabari/Murray/Miller are all reasonable inclusions for having a reasonable outcome starter floor.

And yeah, the Thompsons just in now way fit that sure thing starter mold, there's been a ton of players that looked like good playmakers at what essentially amounts to a great high school level and couldn't do it at all in the league. The floor for each is pretty clearly out of the league (ignoring injury type situations, which I normally do, but don't bother to point out unless injuries are a notable concern for particular players).

Also - would you mind giving a bit of your Julian Phillips take here?

Edit: Sidenote on Tennessee - not quite top 20, but I've always kind of believed in Vescovi as an NBA bench guy.

[The-Power]

Also - would you mind giving a bit of your Julian Phillips take here?

Sure. I'm still a fan of his archetype. It's easy for me to see a path for him to contribute at the next level. He has the size and length you want in a Forward. Not a great athlete by any stretch but still passes the threshold. A key thing for me is that he uses the physical tools he has to the best of his ability. He plays tough, battles for rebounds, seeks out contact (.63 FTr is insane for someone like him). He plays within himself and is going to find ways to contribute even when he doesn't touch the ball. He likely won't be creating off the dribble a lot (his handle is too loose and he doesn't have a ton of wiggle) but he can add a bit of value in sets similar to what Mikal uses, where he curls around a screen and receives the ball with a bit of space in the midrange area. All of that should scale well.

I had him as a top 10 candidate early on because I believed in his shooting (as in, he'll actually be a clear plus shooter). Safe to say that his shot hasn't translated at all for some reason and he's both reluctant to take 3s and inefficient when he does, which was unexpected for me. So that has led to a clear drop on my board because if he can't hit 3s reliably, it's tough to see him as a starter somewhere in the NBA. But he shoots 83% from the line on high volume, so I'll still give him the benefit of the doubt that he'll be able to space the floor down the road even though I don't expect a Mikal-level shooter (i.e., good and reliable when not asked to create pull-up 3s or fly around screens) any longer (which I thought and hoped for to start the season). I think it's still a possibility but rather a high-end outcome now.

[Chi town]

I just feel more confident that Jett’s shooting will translate than JHS playmaking skillset. Jett has a higher floor and he’s big enough you can play him at PF defensively. Basically as long as the team that drafts him doesn’t exclusively switch on defense so guards can easily hunt him on the perimeter I think he could be serviceable there too.

If Jett adds muscle and core strength he’s a PF. I don’t think he can slim down and a be a Klay either.

He's got a 5.0% rebounding % in college. No way he can play PF.

I suppose it's possible, if he adds muscle and really puts in the effort to crash the boards more..

3 ball has changed the game a lot in the league. Lots of long rebounds and it’s more about anticipation and hustle. Jett is a smart player I think he’d be fine. He has to improve his body though.

[Chi town]

Lots of teams will be devastated for not picking or trading up to get the Thompson twins.

[BostonCouchGM]

I find it really interesting that just about the entire scouting community is a lot higher on the Thompson twins than pretty much the entirety of RealGm is and vice versa with Hendricks. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

I believe mass media mocks like Lowe, Givony, KoC, Tankathon, Bleacher Report largely care only about upside.

This board likes to discuss downside for each and every prospect to death. Perhaps the Thompsons takes here have been poisoned beyond repair, but I do not believe they can possibly be the #3/4 based on their downside.

I think it's groupthink as well. For the most part, they don't like stepping on each other's toes nor deviating from each other too much lest they be exposed as frauds like KOC with his Killian Hayes take.