Project Pat | The PaW | Patrick Williams Thread

[League Circles]

The less his agent seems open to a cheap long term extension, the more I'd look to trade him. He's the kind of guy that could very easily be wildly overpaid next summer based mostly on 3pt%, body, draft pedigree etc. I could easily see somebody speculating that he'd be worth over 20 mil a year to them in RFA, and that could be a disaster for the Bulls.

[DuckIII]

It sucks that we're so forced to evaluate Patrick's future this summer. We face a fork in the road where if we keep him, we substantially risk rapid depreciation of him as an asset, or risk of needing to pay him very questionable money to keep him long term. I doubt he'd sign a cheap extension, so in a sense it's kinda trade him or commit to him. Because of we keep him past the summer and don't commit to him, his value will go down to virtually zero by the trade deadline.

I like Patrick but the timing of his contract really really sucks for us. I'd definitely shop him this summer, ideally in a package for a better player, or maybe a different fitting guy who is at least a year younger so we have more time to decide and have that player on a cheap deal in summer 2024 when we may need to retool via FA.

This is only true to the extent he has strong trade value this summer, if not it’s a non-issue because you don’t preemptively trade young upside players for veteran role players that can be signed any summer in free agency.

If he does not have strong trade value there’s no decision to be made unless it’s part of some bigger deal.

Probably more important to your post is that Pat doesn’t have to be extended this summer at all. It’s the early extension date. He’ll still be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

You’re a year early.

[League Circles]

It sucks that we're so forced to evaluate Patrick's future this summer. We face a fork in the road where if we keep him, we substantially risk rapid depreciation of him as an asset, or risk of needing to pay him very questionable money to keep him long term. I doubt he'd sign a cheap extension, so in a sense it's kinda trade him or commit to him. Because of we keep him past the summer and don't commit to him, his value will go down to virtually zero by the trade deadline.

I like Patrick but the timing of his contract really really sucks for us. I'd definitely shop him this summer, ideally in a package for a better player, or maybe a different fitting guy who is at least a year younger so we have more time to decide and have that player on a cheap deal in summer 2024 when we may need to retool via FA.

This is only true to the extent he has strong trade value this summer, if not it’s a non-issue because you don’t preemptively trade young upside players for veteran role players that can be signed any summer in free agency.

If he does not have strong trade value there’s no decision to be made unless it’s part of some bigger deal.

Probably more important to your post is that Pat doesn’t have to be extended this summer at all. It’s the early extension date. He’ll still be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

You’re a year early.

I believe he probably will have pretty strong trade value this summer. Other GMs are going to think he's an ideal 3 and D guy, despite him arguably being neither 3 nor D.

I certainly wouldn't trade him straight up for a vet role player, but I'd def look to see what he can return when packaged with different combinations of Caruso, Terry, Drummond and DJJ if they opt in (though maybe they're ineligible to be traded if they do I can't remember), and possibly what little future draft capital we have. I don't expect that there's a good trade available that will make sense, but I'd sure look into it. Because him being a FA next summer is very likely to be a lose lose for us IMO. We will likely have to decide whether we want to lose an OK player who seems to still have vague upside, or give an OK player a pretty high dollar 4 year deal on a roster that maybe shouldn't be signing anyone at all that is just "OK".

All depends on what actual trades we could maybe do with him. Either a legit vet upgrade at PF or maybe PG, or an equal level prospect with an additional year on his rookie deal to buy us time.

[FriedRise]

Yeah they have another year to evaluate Pat. If he has another underwhelming season, I imagine they're gonna make him go out and get an offer sheet from another team like they did Zach (and then probably match it). That lets the market dictate his value and limit the risk of overpaying him.

The ones we have to make a decision on this summer are Coby and Ayo.

[Stratmaster]

It sucks that we're so forced to evaluate Patrick's future this summer. We face a fork in the road where if we keep him, we substantially risk rapid depreciation of him as an asset, or risk of needing to pay him very questionable money to keep him long term. I doubt he'd sign a cheap extension, so in a sense it's kinda trade him or commit to him. Because of we keep him past the summer and don't commit to him, his value will go down to virtually zero by the trade deadline.

I like Patrick but the timing of his contract really really sucks for us. I'd definitely shop him this summer, ideally in a package for a better player, or maybe a different fitting guy who is at least a year younger so we have more time to decide and have that player on a cheap deal in summer 2024 when we may need to retool via FA.

This is only true to the extent he has strong trade value this summer, if not it’s a non-issue because you don’t preemptively trade young upside players for veteran role players that can be signed any summer in free agency.

If he does not have strong trade value there’s no decision to be made unless it’s part of some bigger deal.

Probably more important to your post is that Pat doesn’t have to be extended this summer at all. It’s the early extension date. He’ll still be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

You’re a year early.

I believe he probably will have pretty strong trade value this summer. Other GMs are going to think he's an ideal 3 and D guy, despite him arguably being neither 3 nor D.

I certainly wouldn't trade him straight up for a vet role player, but I'd def look to see what he can return when packaged with different combinations of Caruso, Terry, Drummond and DJJ if they opt in (though maybe they're ineligible to be traded if they do I can't remember), and possibly what little future draft capital we have. I don't expect that there's a good trade available that will make sense, but I'd sure look into it. Because him being a FA next summer is very likely to be a lose lose for us IMO. We will likely have to decide whether we want to lose an OK player who seems to still have vague upside, or give an OK player a pretty high dollar 4 year deal on a roster that maybe shouldn't be signing anyone at all that is just "OK".

All depends on what actual trades we could maybe do with him. Either a legit vet upgrade at PF or maybe PG, or an equal level prospect with an additional year on his rookie deal to buy us time.

Could packaging Demar and Pwill help increase both their value. Teams might be hesitant to give much for Demar because of contract status/age. But adding a "high upside" younger player rounds out that trade package.

[Stratmaster]

Yeah they have another year to evaluate Pat. If he has another underwhelming season, I imagine they're gonna make him go out and get an offer sheet from another team like they did Zach (and then probably match it). That lets the market dictate his value and limit the risk of overpaying him.

The ones we have to make a decision on this summer are Coby and Ayo.

I don't think there is much to decide. If you can sign them for about what they are making now, great. If not... c ya

[DuckIII]

It sucks that we're so forced to evaluate Patrick's future this summer. We face a fork in the road where if we keep him, we substantially risk rapid depreciation of him as an asset, or risk of needing to pay him very questionable money to keep him long term. I doubt he'd sign a cheap extension, so in a sense it's kinda trade him or commit to him. Because of we keep him past the summer and don't commit to him, his value will go down to virtually zero by the trade deadline.

I like Patrick but the timing of his contract really really sucks for us. I'd definitely shop him this summer, ideally in a package for a better player, or maybe a different fitting guy who is at least a year younger so we have more time to decide and have that player on a cheap deal in summer 2024 when we may need to retool via FA.

This is only true to the extent he has strong trade value this summer, if not it’s a non-issue because you don’t preemptively trade young upside players for veteran role players that can be signed any summer in free agency.

If he does not have strong trade value there’s no decision to be made unless it’s part of some bigger deal.

Probably more important to your post is that Pat doesn’t have to be extended this summer at all. It’s the early extension date. He’ll still be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

You’re a year early.

I believe he probably will have pretty strong trade value this summer.

I don’t. Not this summer. Too many questions. But if he does you have to explore it. Regardless, mostly wanted to clarify that this is really a 2024 issue based on the CBA as it relates to rookie scale players.

Also the rest of your post seems to contemplate the FO going all in with the current core. Which if they do, like the incompetent morons they have given every indication they are, that makes a trade much more likely. But even if it does, I don’t think his trade value is very significant as of today. Could net a veteran role player 4 I guess.

[League Circles]

Could packaging Demar and Pwill help increase both their value. Teams might be hesitant to give much for Demar because of contract status/age. But adding a "high upside" younger player rounds out that trade package.

I doubt it. I just see it as unrealistic that any one team would want both an aging #1 iso-scorer type AND a very young complementary guy role player/prospect who both ideally play the 3 position in exchange for 35ish million dolllars worth of their existing salary that would help us more.

I think Demar almost certainly has the highest "worth to us"/ "worth to us in trade" ratios on the roster.

Another team trading much for Demar just doesn't fit any good narratives for other NBA teams. He's still a damn good player, but guys of his age and skillset just aren't easy to fit into coherent visions of success when plopped on a new team.

Even though I think our problems are mostly coaching, roster construction, and mediocre players outside of our top 2-3 guys, I think other GMs will falsely convince themselves that our "big 3" is more to blame.

[FriedRise]

Yeah they have another year to evaluate Pat. If he has another underwhelming season, I imagine they're gonna make him go out and get an offer sheet from another team like they did Zach (and then probably match it). That lets the market dictate his value and limit the risk of overpaying him.

The ones we have to make a decision on this summer are Coby and Ayo.

I don't think there is much to decide. If you can sign them for about what they are making now, great. If not... c ya

It's funny how before the season started we were all trying to figure out how we could max Ayo.

[League Circles]

This is only true to the extent he has strong trade value this summer, if not it’s a non-issue because you don’t preemptively trade young upside players for veteran role players that can be signed any summer in free agency.

If he does not have strong trade value there’s no decision to be made unless it’s part of some bigger deal.

Probably more important to your post is that Pat doesn’t have to be extended this summer at all. It’s the early extension date. He’ll still be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

You’re a year early.

I believe he probably will have pretty strong trade value this summer.

I don’t. Not this summer. Too many questions. But if he does you have to explore it. Regardless, mostly wanted to clarify that this is really a 2024 issue based on the CBA as it relates to rookie scale players.

Also the rest of your post seems to contemplate the FO going all in with the current core. Which if they do, like the incompetent morons they have given every indication they are, that makes a trade much more likely. But even if it does, I don’t think his trade value is very significant as of today. Could net a veteran role player 4 I guess.

I don't think they'll go "all in" on our core, but they will likely tun it back for another season IMO, and I think they probably should at this point.

The fact that our core is so questionable to continue with long term is exactly why having a likely still "TBD" player in Patrick as a RFA with an enormous cap hold next summer is very likely to present us with two bad alternatives from which to choose.

Not sure why you only think he'd be worth a vet role playing 4. Patrick is already an adequate role playing 4, but at a pretty modest salary for next year and with way more upside plus RFA rights vs just some random mediocre veteran 4. I think him plus Caruso plus Terry has potential to return a true upgrade at the 4 or 1 spots.

[DuckIII]

This is only true to the extent he has strong trade value this summer, if not it’s a non-issue because you don’t preemptively trade young upside players for veteran role players that can be signed any summer in free agency.

If he does not have strong trade value there’s no decision to be made unless it’s part of some bigger deal.

Probably more important to your post is that Pat doesn’t have to be extended this summer at all. It’s the early extension date. He’ll still be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

You’re a year early.

I believe he probably will have pretty strong trade value this summer. Other GMs are going to think he's an ideal 3 and D guy, despite him arguably being neither 3 nor D.

I certainly wouldn't trade him straight up for a vet role player, but I'd def look to see what he can return when packaged with different combinations of Caruso, Terry, Drummond and DJJ if they opt in (though maybe they're ineligible to be traded if they do I can't remember), and possibly what little future draft capital we have. I don't expect that there's a good trade available that will make sense, but I'd sure look into it. Because him being a FA next summer is very likely to be a lose lose for us IMO. We will likely have to decide whether we want to lose an OK player who seems to still have vague upside, or give an OK player a pretty high dollar 4 year deal on a roster that maybe shouldn't be signing anyone at all that is just "OK".

All depends on what actual trades we could maybe do with him. Either a legit vet upgrade at PF or maybe PG, or an equal level prospect with an additional year on his rookie deal to buy us time.

Could packaging Demar and Pwill help increase both their value. Teams might be hesitant to give much for Demar because of contract status/age. But adding a "high upside" younger player rounds out that trade package.

Definitely. But increase their trade value to what? Like League, you appear to be contemplating it as part of a win now type scenario. I don’t think those guys even together get you more than solid role players if you are looking to the present rather than the future. And the remaining core is not good enough to compete for anything meaningful in that scenario.

Pat/DDR isn’t getting a high level player in return to propel us in to the top 4-5 in the East.

As part of a rebuild for flexible and future assets? More possible they could create that type of value.

[DuckIII]

Yeah they have another year to evaluate Pat. If he has another underwhelming season, I imagine they're gonna make him go out and get an offer sheet from another team like they did Zach (and then probably match it). That lets the market dictate his value and limit the risk of overpaying him.

The ones we have to make a decision on this summer are Coby and Ayo.

I don't think there is much to decide. If you can sign them for about what they are making now, great. If not... c ya

It's funny how before the season started we were all trying to figure out how we could max Ayo.

If I were the Bulls I still wouldn’t sleep on Ayo. He’s going to have a good NBA career as a combo guard. But his sophomore slump and Coby’s considerable improvements as a two way player kind of kills all the earlier angst about Ayo’s extension and potential poison pill concerns.

Back then I think most of us figured Coby was inevitably done as a Bull. Given what he showed this year hopefully the FO has him firmly ahead of Ayo as a priority (to the extent they consider either a priority). I had them prioritized the exact opposite at the end of last year.

Good on Coby.

[TheHrvReport]

Dose anyone with knowledge of the cap know whether we could keep both Ayo and Coby on reasonable deals?

[bledredwine]

I’m not talking about Pat. I’m talking about the general notion that one way can never be the right way to develop a player. That’s nonsense. Human beings improve best through a wide variety of approaches. Professional sports is no different. A competent coach does not use a one size fits all approach.

Come on Duck. You were being harsh here.

Our personalities and neural wiring are very much conditioned in early age. Though you can obviously change it further down the road, it requires immense effort.

Pat seems to be reluctant to shoot. Think of Ben Simmons. It’s rare for someone to come in to the NBA shy and to turn into a monster scorer.

That’s all that he was saying and it’s the truth. It’s not like Pat’s on some contender where his role is to take few shots.

Pat seems to have the skills but nowhere near the mindset of stars in this league. How many star players can you name that we’re as gunshy with as little improvement in their first seasons?

I hope he proves me wrong and I can finally be full of it in a positive way, but Pat will likely be a solid starter, nothing more.

My post is not about Pat.

And I was just saying that upbringing/personality is a huge part of it. It's something that we can't dismiss. There's no denying that the saying "people never change", while not fully correct, has some semblance of truth to it.

[madvillian]

A great game. He was everywhere for stretches in the 2nd half. Come out with that mindset every night and he'll be a very useful starter in a year or two.

[GoBlue72391]

Yeah they have another year to evaluate Pat. If he has another underwhelming season, I imagine they're gonna make him go out and get an offer sheet from another team like they did Zach (and then probably match it). That lets the market dictate his value and limit the risk of overpaying him.

The ones we have to make a decision on this summer are Coby and Ayo.

In their current forms, Coby and Ayo are inconsequential and easily replaceable, and I don't think either player's ceiling is high enough to warrant overpaying them as opposed to replacing them with cheap veterans.

I would have preferred to trade Coby for something of value as opposed to either overpaying him or letting him walk for nothing. Hopefully, Ayo can be retained for cheap on a short, team-controlled contract since he's had such an awful year. I still think there might be something there, so I would like another chance to see what kind of player he actually is, but if not, oh well.

[Chi town]

https://youtu.be/C_NG-Bed-qM

Keep the faith.

Would really like to see Pat on ball next season more.

[GoBlue72391]

https://youtu.be/C_NG-Bed-qM

Keep the faith.

Would really like to see Pat on ball next season more.

To be fair, most players would pop off against 3rd stringers and G Leaguers. That T'Wolves game is one of the biggest examples of fool's gold I've ever seen.

[kodo]

Don't think he's an on-ball guy. He's one of the worst isolation players in the league by stats, bottom 3%. You have to be some sort of threat on the ball otherwise everyone will just play off you and it's too easy to defend.

He's a great C&S shooter, 41% 3P is elite. Let him be who he is, a guy in the corner.

[PaKii94]

Will he be significantly better than Tony Snell? I doubt it