Giannis - 2X MVP - FMVP - DPOY - Offseason discussion

[HKPackFan]

If the Bucks finish with 60 wins, Giannis has a 40+/10+/5+ game or two against Denver and Boston and we are 5 clear of any team for the best record, he might just pull it off...

I agree. if Giannis keeps his big games up while Banking wins AND has a couple big games against top teams like you said (with W's) and nuggets keep farting around playing .500 ball I think the combination really changes the dynamic. Suddenly Jokic's stats lose their luster if he's getting TDs but not getting Ws.

I would have loved it if Giannis got 2 extra assists tonight to get a TD and some media attention, but at the same time I appreciated the way he wasn't hunting and he made the right plays, all his stats were in the flow of the game.

[Antinomy]

If the Bucks finish with 60 wins, Giannis has a 40+/10+/5+ game or two against Denver and Boston and we are 5 clear of any team for the best record, he might just pull it off...

We’re already 4 games up on Philly & Denver.

If that gap gets any bigger, it’s a wrap.

[skbucks1985]

I think Embiid and the Sixers continuing to play so well is probably hurting Giannis, they're the only team in the league to beat the Bucks in the last 3 months when all 3 of Giannis, Midds and Holiday play. I think those two are probably splitting a lot of votes as I think getting the tunnel vision advanced stats people off Jokic is pretty close to impossible (I read a Kevin Pelton article a couple days ago that said Giannis was an MVP candidate, but probably not a top-tier one) and everyone else is probably relatively split between the three but with the momentum going away from Jokic and towards Embiid and Giannis. I think if Giannis or Embiid win its going to be on the backs of 2nd place votes because I'm still pretty confident (although less than I was a week ago) that Jokic will get a plurality of 1st place votes.

If the trajectory stays and the Bucks gets 59-60 with no one else above 55-56 and the numbers doesn't appreciably change and Jokic still wins MVP, I will genuinely wonder if the current crop of MVP voters are capable of seeing the forest for the trees. There's a numeric argument for Giannis, especially accounting for defense, but the strongest argument is the simple one of him being the unquestioned best player on the unquestioned best team. And for 90% of the history of the NBA that guy is the prohibitive favorite for the award.

[Douggystyle29]

I know this is a little off topic and random but I didn't know the best place to post, so here we go. I just wanted to give a shout out to Lopez. I think he has been the team MVP when Giannis has been out. call me crazy but I think he has played at an all-star level. I admit I was one of the people advocating for trading him for someone like Turner because of his age. Im just impressed that he is playing at such a high level for his age and he completely changed the way he plays to be a good fit in our system.

[dbrodz7]

I think it's absurd that Giannis is going to average 32 12 and 6 while being the best player in the league, the best player on the best team, and the best defensive player in the league and not win MVP. I don't care what any of the advanced stats say, it's stupid. The only argument to not give it to him in my opinion is the amount of games he's sat.

[CharityStripe34]

He's neck and neck with Sabonis and Jokic for league leaders in rebounding. I'm not sure if he can get the scoring title, but the rebounding title is right there for the taking. Last night I actually noticed he wasn't really rebound hunting. There were moments when the guards crashed the boards, and he was simply either boxing out or just holding position letting them grab the boards. I think those are the subtle ways he's been pacing himself a bit (as well as playing drop).

[chonestown]

I think it's absurd that Giannis is going to average 32 12 and 6 while being the best player in the league, the best player on the best team, and the best defensive player in the league and not win MVP. I don't care what any of the advanced stats say, it's stupid. The only argument to not give it to him in my opinion is the amount of games he's sat.

Let's go to The Ringers updated Top 125 (Christ, they run a lot of lists)
https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

At #1

Jokic is a once-in-a-lifetime basketball phenomenon. As a back-to-back MVP who would probably win the award a couple more times if it were decided by voter-fatigue-proof robots instead of narrative-seeking human beings, he’s straight up, without equivocation, the best player on the planet.

he’s straight up, without equivocation, the best player on the planet.

Look, I truly don't care if Giannis is ranked #1, if he becomes MVP again, if he has (Henry Hill voice) Respect. Bucks in 6 came to fruition just as the prophet spake. I am Good.

But there's but a few big platforms out there for NBA analysis and when a big chunk of your available bandwith/minutes/column inches is ceded over to poorly-considered thoughts, I got a problem. Take culture is what it is, my problem is with take culture given a megaphone.

There's been two for sure "without equivocation" players I've seen with my own two eyes. One is Hitler Mustache McDungarees and the other just broke the all-time scoring record. When Bird and Magic were at their peak, each was within close distance of the other. I'll grant an argument for Shaq if I'm being charitable. All other distinctions between the "best player" and those behind came with varying degrees of, let's call it, equivocation.

Consider this year. You want to call Jokic the best player, fine. Giannis, likewise. Embiid, not as solid a case, but worth considering. That's equivocation. I am so tired of people using words who are the same people drawing a paycheck for their skill in using words. For all the .imo posting and dipping into daver's brand of psychedelic keyboard adventures, I take language seriously.

Alright, back to shtposting.

[emunney]

I think it's absurd that Giannis is going to average 32 12 and 6 while being the best player in the league, the best player on the best team, and the best defensive player in the league and not win MVP. I don't care what any of the advanced stats say, it's stupid. The only argument to not give it to him in my opinion is the amount of games he's sat.

Let's go to The Ringers updated Top 125 (Christ, they run a lot of lists)
https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

At #1

Jokic is a once-in-a-lifetime basketball phenomenon. As a back-to-back MVP who would probably win the award a couple more times if it were decided by voter-fatigue-proof robots instead of narrative-seeking human beings, he’s straight up, without equivocation, the best player on the planet.

he’s straight up, without equivocation, the best player on the planet.

Look, I truly don't care if Giannis is ranked #1, if he becomes MVP again, if he has (Henry Hill voice) Respect. Bucks in 6 came to fruition just as the prophet spake. I am Good.

But there's but a few big platforms out there for NBA analysis and when a big chunk of your available bandwith/minutes/column inches is ceded over to poorly-considered thoughts, I got a problem. Take culture is what it is, my problem is with take culture given a megaphone.

There's been two for sure "without equivocation" players I've seen with my own two eyes. One is Hitler Mustache McDungarees and the other just broke the all-time scoring record. When Bird and Magic were at their peak, each was within close distance of the other. I'll grant an argument for Shaq if I'm being charitable. All other distinctions between the "best player" and those behind came with varying degrees of, let's call it, equivocation.

Consider this year. You want to call Jokic the best player, fine. Giannis, likewise. Embiid, not as solid a case, but worth considering. That's equivocation. I am so tired of people using words who are the same people drawing a paycheck for their skill in using words. For all the .imo posting and dipping into daver's brand of psychedelic keyboard adventures, I take language seriously.

Alright, back to shtposting.

By far the weirdest thing about the media's Jokic obsession is the lack of acknowledgment that the 2nd best player at his position is a terrible matchup for him, to say nothing of Denver's hockey-style line changes and the way they impact Jokic's numbers.

[emunney]

By the way, having Embiid SIXTH is **** embarrassing.

[CharityStripe34]

I think it's absurd that Giannis is going to average 32 12 and 6 while being the best player in the league, the best player on the best team, and the best defensive player in the league and not win MVP. I don't care what any of the advanced stats say, it's stupid. The only argument to not give it to him in my opinion is the amount of games he's sat.

Let's go to The Ringers updated Top 125 (Christ, they run a lot of lists)
https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

At #1

Jokic is a once-in-a-lifetime basketball phenomenon. As a back-to-back MVP who would probably win the award a couple more times if it were decided by voter-fatigue-proof robots instead of narrative-seeking human beings, he’s straight up, without equivocation, the best player on the planet.

he’s straight up, without equivocation, the best player on the planet.

Look, I truly don't care if Giannis is ranked #1, if he becomes MVP again, if he has (Henry Hill voice) Respect. Bucks in 6 came to fruition just as the prophet spake. I am Good.

But there's but a few big platforms out there for NBA analysis and when a big chunk of your available bandwith/minutes/column inches is ceded over to poorly-considered thoughts, I got a problem. Take culture is what it is, my problem is with take culture given a megaphone.

There's been two for sure "without equivocation" players I've seen with my own two eyes. One is Hitler Mustache McDungarees and the other just broke the all-time scoring record. When Bird and Magic were at their peak, each was within close distance of the other. I'll grant an argument for Shaq if I'm being charitable. All other distinctions between the "best player" and those behind came with varying degrees of, let's call it, equivocation.

Consider this year. You want to call Jokic the best player, fine. Giannis, likewise. Embiid, not as solid a case, but worth considering. That's equivocation. I am so tired of people using words who are the same people drawing a paycheck for their skill in using words. For all the .imo posting and dipping into daver's brand of psychedelic keyboard adventures, I take language seriously.

Alright, back to shtposting.

By far the weirdest thing about the media's Jokic obsession is the lack of acknowledgment that the 2nd best player at his position is a terrible matchup for him, to say nothing of Denver's hockey-style line changes and the way they impact Jokic's numbers.

I think beneath the surface of all the narratives about this year's MVP race is the "analytics crowd vs. traditional voters" battle that's, quite frankly, both amusing and ridiculous.

And that many voters and media types have gotten much more enamored with floor-raising as opposed to ceiling-raising. It's forgotten now but a great example is Curry getting 3rd in MVP voting in 2021 over Gianni, despite the Warriors being a 7 seed with a 39-33 record and losing in the play-in game to the Baby Grizzlies. The Westbrook MVP win opened the door for the elite players putting up huge numbers on middling squads getting high MVP votes.

[chonestown]

Kawhi Leonard ranked #8. Once again, sure, ratings are whatever, give me the rationale.

All-time winner and two-way monster who would easily crack the top 10 of any NBA ranking if his body allowed it.

You have him ranked #8.

He's missed nearly 30 games already.

Am I hallucinating?

[skones]

By the way, having Embiid SIXTH is **** embarrassing.

Durant is making an enormous impact tweeting from a burner account on the bench for a lot of games, haven't you heard?

[emunney]

Kawhi Leonard ranked #8. Once again, sure, ratings are whatever, give me the rationale.

All-time winner and two-way monster who would easily crack the top 10 of any NBA ranking if his body allowed it.

You have him ranked #8.

He's missed nearly 30 games already.

Am I hallucinating?

Similarly with Zion, you've got him as the 19th best player in the game and I'm going to need to look up "player" in the dictionary. He's played 29 games in the last two seasons and has yet to play a single game in the playoffs. I love him, I supported his case as an MVP candidate when the Pels were winning and he was playing, but it's reasonable to ask how much you have to actually play to be considered a great player. You can't just put "when he's healthy" in brackets everywhere; they don't have a "when he makes 3s" qualification that earns Giannis special merit.

The entire exercise basically is screaming at you that you shouldn't be reading too carefully.

The Kings’ big man has a solid 7-foot-1 frame,

What? Who?

[raferfenix]

Jokic winning 3 in a row while not contributing much on defense — compared to DPOY caliber play from Giannis — seems pretty farcical.

[chonestown]

Kawhi Leonard ranked #8. Once again, sure, ratings are whatever, give me the rationale.

All-time winner and two-way monster who would easily crack the top 10 of any NBA ranking if his body allowed it.

You have him ranked #8.

He's missed nearly 30 games already.

Am I hallucinating?

Similarly with Zion, you've got him as the 19th best player in the game and I'm going to need to look up "player" in the dictionary. He's played 29 games in the last two seasons and has yet to play a single game in the playoffs. I love him, I supported his case as an MVP candidate when the Pels were winning and he was playing, but it's reasonable to ask how much you have to actually play to be considered a great player. You can't just put "when he's healthy" in brackets everywhere; they don't have a "when he makes 3s" qualification that earns Giannis special merit.

The entire exercise basically is screaming at you that you shouldn't be reading too carefully.

The Kings’ big man has a solid 7-foot-1 frame,

What? Who?

Using wikipedia for facts, always the mark of a diligent writer.

Anybody who has seen Sabonis in action would find that number ridiculous.

When you whiff on something so basic it throws the whole enterprise into question. Everybody has a prediction that goes far afield, no shame in that. This...I'm not inclined to wave it away charitably.

[emunney]

The Kings list him at 7-1. Maybe the first entry in the Ringer Style Guide is BE CREDULOUS.

[German Athens]

By the way, having Embiid SIXTH is **** embarrassing.

I think having Jokic unequivocally number 1, weighted mostly be regular season dominance, while having Embiid 6th is embarrassing, but having Embiid 6th by itself doesn’t seem that unreasonable to me.

I think it’s fair to have Giannis, Steph, and Luka ahead of Embiid for their post season play just this past season. Then you have Jokic as the even better regular season player. So, it comes down to him and KD?

5th/6th seems about right to me, but Embiid could prove a ton this playoff.

Who would you put Embiid ahead of?

[Prez]

Denver’s rotation management leads to Jokic playing a massive portion of minutes with only their good players and minimizing the time he has to play with lesser bench players. It leads to ridiculous on/off splits where they stack their core units and leave their bench units to die in a fire, with a post ACL Murray usually being the only core guy trying to lift those lineups. And all of this is compounded by the fact that they have continually brought in atrocious backups for Jokic, leading to even more insane on/offs.

Jokic plays 44% of his minutes with their top 2 lineups that are loaded with their best starters. In contrast, Giannis has played literally half that, at 22%. We routinely ask Giannis to lift up suboptimal lineups at the expense of his impact numbers, while Denver primarily uses Jokic to spearhead only their best units while sparing him from leading their suboptimal lineups and essentially leaving the non-Jokic minutes to crash and burn.

It’s not a coincidence that all the Nuggets starters outside of Murray (since he’s the lucky one who gets to play a ton with bench units) have obscene on/offs and net ratings. And as much as these deeper impact metrics like RAPTOR, RAPM supposedly try to adjust for this, they clearly don’t do a good enough job of it.

And this is the most frustrating part of the MVP discussion. You have a voter base and overall media that year after year are focusing more and more heavily on impact metrics without looking at the context behind the numbers at all. And the whole discussion seems to basically be turning into “which of the candidates has the team that sucks ass the most when they sit?”, and because of those metrics we have to sit here and read fan fiction about Jokic being this quietly great and just totally misunderstood defensive player….all until the playoffs roll around and they have a 125 DRTG with him on court like they have had the past two postseasons.

[German Athens]

Denver’s rotation management leads to Jokic playing a massive portion of minutes with only their good players and minimizing the time he has to play with lesser bench players. It leads to ridiculous on/off splits where they stack their core units and leave their bench units to die in a fire, with a post ACL Murray usually being the only core guy trying to lift those lineups. And all of this is compounded by the fact that they have continually brought in atrocious backups for Jokic, leading to even more insane on/offs.

Jokic plays 44% of his minutes with their top 2 lineups that are loaded with their best starters. In contrast, Giannis has played literally half that, at 22%. We routinely ask Giannis to lift up suboptimal lineups at the expense of his impact numbers, while Denver primarily uses Jokic to spearhead only their best units while sparing him from leading their suboptimal lineups and essentially leaving the non-Jokic minutes to crash and burn.

It’s not a coincidence that all the Nuggets starters outside of Murray (since he’s the lucky one who gets to play a ton with bench units) have obscene on/offs and net ratings. And as much as these deeper impact metrics like RAPTOR, RAPM supposedly try to adjust for this, they clearly don’t do a good enough job of it.

And this is the most frustrating part of the MVP discussion. You have a voter base and overall media that year after year are focusing more and more heavily on impact metrics without looking at the context behind the numbers at all. And the whole discussion seems to basically be turning into “which of the candidates has the team that sucks ass the most when they sit?”, and because of those metrics we have to sit here and read fan fiction about Jokic being this quietly great and just totally misunderstood defensive player….all until the playoffs roll around and they have a 125 DRTG with him on court like they have had the past two postseasons.

I loved that visual you shared yesterday with the rotations by minute. Do you know where I could find more of that for season averages without trying to recreate it with nba.com data?

[Magic Giannison]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=TheVolume


At 15 minutes mark he talks about the Bucks defense, love his analysis.

No analytics no plus minus BS just pure basketball.