Brandon Miller - Alabama

[LofJ]

I have zero doubt that he's going to be an elite scorer in the league. Kid is legit Tatum level talent.

I have him more Nic Batum or Otto Porter, but I guess we'll see.

I don't see many similarities between Batum and Miller. Batum had the talent to be a two-way all-star, but he shrinked when the pressure was on and never had the confidence to take over games. He was also one of the best passing wings in the league for a while. Miller isn't bad in that regard, but he's not on Batum's level.

I can see some similarities between OPJ and Miller through. OPJ was solid across the board in college and made big strides from his freshman to sophomore years. That said he isn't the shooter or scorer that Miller is. OPJ when he was healthy was a do it all role player similar to what Batum became. Maybe that's what Miller will become in the league, but it isn't the player he is now - which is a go-to scorer.

[reanimator]

Sophomore Otto Porter Jr and Freshmen Brandon Miller have very similar statistical profiles per 100 possessions so I guess it just comes down to how you view age in relation to development. Both aged 20 at draft time with Miller being older relative to his peers though 1 year less experience in a college environment. I think Miller's heavy 3 pt volume/shooting makes that more of a low end outcome though.

[Catchall]

I have zero doubt that he's going to be an elite scorer in the league. Kid is legit Tatum level talent.

I have him more Nic Batum or Otto Porter, but I guess we'll see.

I don't see many similarities between Batum and Miller. Batum had the talent to be a two-way all-star, but he shrinked when the pressure was on and never had the confidence to take over games. He was also one of the best passing wings in the league for a while. Miller isn't bad in that regard, but he's not on Batum's level.

I can see some similarities between OPJ and Miller through. OPJ was solid across the board in college and made big strides from his freshman to sophomore years. That said he isn't the shooter or scorer that Miller is. OPJ when he was healthy was a do it all role player similar to what Batum became. Maybe that's what Miller will become in the league, but it isn't the player he is now - which is a go-to scorer.

Miller is a go-to scorer at the NCAA level. How much of that translates over to the NBA is the question. I'd argue OPJ was a go-to scorer at Georgetown...

Otto Porter
6'9" / 200 lbs / 7'1" ws
48/42/78 shooting splits
54% EFG%
24% Usage Rage
Three-level potential
Secondary creation
All American
Big East POTY
Drafted #3 overall

Watch on YouTube

[Catchall]

Sophomore Otto Porter Jr and Freshmen Brandon Miller have very similar statistical profiles per 100 possessions so I guess it just comes down to how you view age in relation to development. Both aged 20 at draft time with Miller being older relative to his peers though 1 year less experience in a college environment. I think Miller's heavy 3 pt volume/shooting makes that more of a low end outcome though.

I don't disagree, but I'd argue that OPJ was better off the dribble and a more aggressive driver.

[big-shot-ROB]

Maybe this is a revisionist opinion but I feel the shooting + displaying more potential to being a lead initiator puts Miller a little higher than OPJ.
I was quite young when OPJ was drafted, at that point I watched DraftExpress and thought everyone was going to be a stud.

What differences you find in both ? Would you say they could be considered the same tier / type of prospects (eventhough their game and projection are different)

[big-shot-ROB]

I have zero doubt that he's going to be an elite scorer in the league. Kid is legit Tatum level talent.

Mehh, I think Tatum outperformed his projections. There was serious debate between him and Jackson. I don't think watching tape from Duke could tell you his median outcome was going to be as it was.

Tatum is a legit MVP candidate. Just by sheer probability there's a high chance he won't be.

Despite that, there's a reason you pick certain profiles in the top-5.

But I don't think Tatum the talent / prospect projected to be such an elite scorer in the league.

[Catchall]

Maybe this is a revisionist opinion but I feel the shooting + displaying more potential to being a lead initiator puts Miller a little higher than OPJ.
I was quite young when OPJ was drafted, at that point I watched DraftExpress and thought everyone was going to be a stud.

What differences you find in both ? Would you say they could be considered the same tier / type of prospects (eventhough their game and projection are different)

It's all but impossible to find a perfect comp for players. Comps just provide a point of reference, and you can think of them being a comparison of role and impact.

With Miller, the questions are:
- Can he separate from NBA defenders, or does he need someone else to create space and time for him to score efficiently?
- Can he elevate and finish at the rim efficiently?
- Can he shoot off motion, or does he need his feet set?
- Is he really a primary offensive option, or a secondary option? Keep in mind, there are some very good scorers in the league who are secondary options, including Klay Thompson, Michael Porter Jr. and Khris Middleton.

[The-Power]

[Miller is a go-to scorer at the NCAA level. How much of that translates over to the NBA is the question. I'd argue OPJ was a go-to scorer at Georgetown...

Otto Porter
6'9" / 200 lbs / 7'1" ws
48/42/78 shooting splits
54% EFG%
24% Usage Rage
Three-level potential
Secondary creation
All American
Big East POTY
Drafted #3 overall

Miller does a lot more self-creation, though. That's an important separator.

According to hoop-math.com

Porter Jr. – 2012-13
% of shots at the rim: 25.4
% assisted at rim: 51.7

% shots 2pt J: 45.4
% assisted 2pt J: 67.7

% of shots 3pt: 29.1
% assisted 3s: 86.0

Miller – 2022-23
% of shots at the rim: 30.7
% assisted at rim: 24.4

% shots 2pt J: 15.2
% assisted 2pt J: 4.8

% of shots 3pt: 40.1
% assisted 3s: 80.6

Miller gets to the rim more while being assisted on a considerably (!) lower percentage of shots. He also shoots more 3s and is assisted on a lower percentage of those, and when he takes 2pt jumpers (which he doesn't do a lot) it's almost all self-created. Miller's shot profile inside the arc is much closer to on-ball creators than off-ball players or big men in terms of self-created shots.

That being said, if someone told me that they see pre-injury OPJ as a realistic lower-end outcome for Miller, I wouldn't challenge that too much. I think they have some clear differences but in terms of quality of play I can see it. But having pre-injury OPJ as a realistic floor is nothing to scoff at. That's still a starting-level player and a higher realistic floor than probably any other player in this draft besides Victor.

[Hal14]

I have him more Nic Batum or Otto Porter, but I guess we'll see.

I don't see many similarities between Batum and Miller. Batum had the talent to be a two-way all-star, but he shrinked when the pressure was on and never had the confidence to take over games. He was also one of the best passing wings in the league for a while. Miller isn't bad in that regard, but he's not on Batum's level.

I can see some similarities between OPJ and Miller through. OPJ was solid across the board in college and made big strides from his freshman to sophomore years. That said he isn't the shooter or scorer that Miller is. OPJ when he was healthy was a do it all role player similar to what Batum became. Maybe that's what Miller will become in the league, but it isn't the player he is now - which is a go-to scorer.

Miller is a go-to scorer at the NCAA level. How much of that translates over to the NBA is the question. I'd argue OPJ was a go-to scorer at Georgetown...

Otto Porter
6'9" / 200 lbs / 7'1" ws
48/42/78 shooting splits
54% EFG%
24% Usage Rage
Three-level potential
Secondary creation
All American
Big East POTY
Drafted #3 overall

Watch on YouTube

Ok. So much of what determines how well a prospect translates to the NBA is a result of:

-Work ethic. How bad do they want it? Are they willing to put in the work to be great that 90% of the players in the league aren't? Do they have the right mindset? Are they mentally tough?

-Injuries

-Team context. What other players are on the team that drafts them? Are they a playoff team or rebuilding? How good is the coach and how good does the coach do to put the prospect in a position to succeed?

-Dumb luck

Who knows, maybe OPJ was a great prospect but because of the factors outlined above, did not turn out to be a star. Not every top 5 pick turns out to be a star. It is what it is. Doesn't mean Miller can't be a star.

[reanimator]

Didn't watch. What happened today?

[CptCrunch]

I think someone did some analysis showing tourney performance isn't indicative of NBA sucess or rather you shouldn't draft players who had a hot turney with the classical example being Derrick Williams against Duke.

Miller is still going #2/3 unless 1/ he blow out a knee, 2/ or if a player in that #4-10 range shows up, destroys the combine and dominates 5v5 scrims.

[Catchall]

I think someone did some analysis showing tourney performance isn't indicative of NBA sucess or rather you shouldn't draft players who had a hot turney with the classical example being Derrick Williams against Duke.

Miller is still going #2/3 unless 1/ he blow out a knee, 2/ or if a player in that #4-10 range shows up, destroys the combine and dominates 5v5 scrims.

I think Amen and possibly Cam Whitmore could get picked ahead of Brandon Miller (in addition to Victor and Scoot) depending on the draft order. I just don't think there's much consensus outside of #1 and likely #2.

[Catchall]

Didn't watch. What happened today?

He went 0-5 and didn't score. Alabama won in a blowout though.

[reanimator]

Not really commentary specifically to the tournament or his draft stock. Of course he goes top 3 but I'm not hearing much analysis of an extended slump going back to Auburn (well before the tournament) beyond "he missed shots." I'm just curious how people who have him #2 view his weaknesses because I' know what us "Brandon Miller haters" think and it'd be insightful to know how the most optimistic view his shortcomings.

[reanimator]

Didn't watch. What happened today?

He went 0-5 and didn't score. Alabama won in a blowout though.

Yeah but why? Was he just passive? hurt? or was there anything to lend credence to some of the shortcomings your or I have perceived?

[Big J]

Didn't watch. What happened today?

He went 0-5 and didn't score. Alabama won in a blowout though.

Yeah but why? Was he just passive? hurt? or was there anything to lend credence to some of the shortcomings your or I have perceived?

He’s dealing with a groin injury. I give the kid credit for gutting it out and playing through it. Shows his competitiveness.

[God Squad]

I think someone did some analysis showing tourney performance isn't indicative of NBA sucess or rather you shouldn't draft players who had a hot turney with the classical example being Derrick Williams against Duke.

Miller is still going #2/3 unless 1/ he blow out a knee, 2/ or if a player in that #4-10 range shows up, destroys the combine and dominates 5v5 scrims.

I think Amen and possibly Cam Whitmore could get picked ahead of Brandon Miller (in addition to Victor and Scoot) depending on the draft order. I just don't think there's much consensus outside of #1 and likely #2.

What's the reasoning for Whitmore over Miller? I don't see it at all. At least with Amen you have "Mystery Box", we've seen enough of Cam.

[reanimator]

He went 0-5 and didn't score. Alabama won in a blowout though.

Yeah but why? Was he just passive? hurt? or was there anything to lend credence to some of the shortcomings your or I have perceived?

He’s dealing with a groin injury. I give the kid credit for gutting it out and playing through it. Shows his competitiveness.

The groin injury began 6 games ago? Didn't you say Scoot is faking his injury to protect his stock?

[Big J]

Yeah but why? Was he just passive? hurt? or was there anything to lend credence to some of the shortcomings your or I have perceived?

He’s dealing with a groin injury. I give the kid credit for gutting it out and playing through it. Shows his competitiveness.

The groin injury began 6 games ago? Didn't you say Scoot is faking his injury to protect his stock?

No, he injured it on Sunday in the SEC championship game buddy. If Miller was trying to protect his stock he would shut it down like non competitive Scoot did.

[reanimator]

He’s dealing with a groin injury. I give the kid credit for gutting it out and playing through it. Shows his competitiveness.

The groin injury began 6 games ago? Didn't you say Scoot is faking his injury to protect his stock?

No, he injured it on Sunday in the SEC championship game buddy. If Miller was trying to protect his stock he would shut it down like non competitive Scoot did.

Ah ok so this is just you arbitrarily deciding what is and isn't legitimate to validate your narrative.