Can any math expert explain what Jokic is doing to get such high defensive advanced stats?

[Godymas]

It doesn't make any sense at all.

Embiid is averaging 10.2 rebounds (8.4 defensive), 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks. The 6ers as a whole have the 9th best defensive rating in the league at about 113.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 7th in the league in terms of %.

Jokic is averaging 11.9 rebounds (9.5 defensive) 1.2 steals, .7 blocks. The Nuggets as a whole have the 16th best defensive rating in the league at about 114.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 9th in the league in terms of %.

By purely WATCHING the game, no one would pick Jokic as a better player than Embiid and yet all the metrics paint Jokic as this elite defensive presence. I watched Embiid have 4 incredible blocks last night and watched Jokic be a revolving door in the paint vs. the Raptors not too long ago.

I think this has to be related to the team composition both deal with. Jokic plays with a team that is worse overall defensively but does so much rebounding and improves them so much in the on/off numbers that the elite offense and scoring that he is delivering is making their defense look better because his team is out pacing an opponent.

I can't think of any other reason why. Outside of maybe Bruce Brown and KCP who are solid, the guys that Jokic has are not good defenders at all, but with Jokic they win off of offense.

[dhsilv2]

Most stats are far worse when trying to split out offense and defense.

[Richard Miller]

By purely WATCHING the game, no one would pick Jokic as a better player than Embiid and yet all the metrics paint Jokic as this elite defensive presence. I watched Embiid have 4 incredible blocks last night and watched Jokic be a revolving door in the paint vs. the Raptors not too long ago.

Nuggets as a whole have been sleepwalking since they beat the Grizzlies and the last several games were absolutely terrible, so not a great example.

[ITYSL]

all the metrics paint Jokic as this elite defensive presence.

Most of them don't. They usually paint him as an average to slightly above average defender in terms of impact. It's because his offensive impact is so huge that his overall metrics are high.

For example:
DRPM: Embiid 5.4, Jokic 2.67
DEPM: Embiid 1.5, Jokic 0.1
DRAPM: Embiid 1.22, Jokic 0.89

If you want to look at the straight stats, Jokic has a 110 DRtg vs. 109 for Embiid. On an on/off basis, Jokic has a DRtg on/off of -3.9 (meaning the team's defensive rating is 3.9 points lower when he's on the court vs. off), whereas Embiid's is -4.2. I'd say those are noisy stats that don't reflect the surrounding cast, but they're part of the reason why Jokic is considered an average or above average defender.

If you're looking for more raw stats that show how Jokic is a decent (though not elite) defender, then you can look at how Jokic draws slightly more charges per game and has slightly more steals per game than Embiid. Perhaps most importantly, he has a lot more deflections per game (3.1 to 1.6). Those deflections lead to disruption in opposing offenses that are likely leading them to shoot late-clock, lower-quality shots.

Again, none of those close the gap between him and an elite rim protector like Embiid. But they lead to Jokic being considered an average to above average defender.

[Bornstellar]

A good example of why stats never tell the whole story and just blindly looking at stats without context has always been a poor argument

[Scalabrine]

It doesn't make any sense at all.

Embiid is averaging 10.2 rebounds (8.4 defensive), 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks. The 6ers as a whole have the 9th best defensive rating in the league at about 113.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 7th in the league in terms of %.

Jokic is averaging 11.9 rebounds (9.5 defensive) 1.2 steals, .7 blocks. The Nuggets as a whole have the 16th best defensive rating in the league at about 114.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 9th in the league in terms of %.

By purely WATCHING the game, no one would pick Jokic as a better player than Embiid and yet all the metrics paint Jokic as this elite defensive presence. I watched Embiid have 4 incredible blocks last night and watched Jokic be a revolving door in the paint vs. the Raptors not too long ago.

I think this has to be related to the team composition both deal with. Jokic plays with a team that is worse overall defensively but does so much rebounding and improves them so much in the on/off numbers that the elite offense and scoring that he is delivering is making their defense look better because his team is out pacing an opponent.

I can't think of any other reason why. Outside of maybe Bruce Brown and KCP who are solid, the guys that Jokic has are not good defenders at all, but with Jokic they win off of offense.

I watch a lot of both players and I think Jokic is the better player.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Offensive and defensive rating was never meant to be compared across teams. It only tells you how good for your team. Defensive BPM is flawed for offensive players. It is calculated by doing BPM - OBPM = DBPM. Assist count more for centers towards a higher BPM. So Jokic has a high BPM being a play making center which in turn gives him an inflated DBPM.

[Harry Garris]

Even if you're not a great defender who's giving your team a bunch of value on that side of the ball, if the team completely falls apart defensively whenever you sit because the backups coming in for you are even worse, your defensive +/- is going to look pretty good.

This is the case with the Nuggets. They're not a deep team and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA. So I wouldn't put much stock into raw plus minus stats with him, especially not defensive ones. Basically what Jokic's defensive +/- or DPBM is telling you is that he's a better defender than Thomas Bryant or washed up DeAndre Jordan. It's not comparing him to players on other teams.

If you look at an adjusted stat like EPM, it tries to adjust for paints Jokic as an average defender. Which I think is a more fair assessment and matches the eye test.

[HotelVitale]

It doesn't make any sense at all.

Embiid is averaging 10.2 rebounds (8.4 defensive), 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks. The 6ers as a whole have the 9th best defensive rating in the league at about 113.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 7th in the league in terms of %.

Jokic is averaging 11.9 rebounds (9.5 defensive) 1.2 steals, .7 blocks. The Nuggets as a whole have the 16th best defensive rating in the league at about 114.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 9th in the league in terms of %.

By purely WATCHING the game, no one would pick Jokic as a better player than Embiid and yet all the metrics paint Jokic as this elite defensive presence. I watched Embiid have 4 incredible blocks last night and watched Jokic be a revolving door in the paint vs. the Raptors not too long ago.

I think this has to be related to the team composition both deal with. Jokic plays with a team that is worse overall defensively but does so much rebounding and improves them so much in the on/off numbers that the elite offense and scoring that he is delivering is making their defense look better because his team is out pacing an opponent.

I can't think of any other reason why. Outside of maybe Bruce Brown and KCP who are solid, the guys that Jokic has are not good defenders at all, but with Jokic they win off of offense.

I watch a lot of both players and I think Jokic is the better player.

You think Jokic is the better defender than Embiid?

[WestGOAT]

I am far from being a maths expert, but the general consensus is that advanced stats for individual defense are not very useful.

D-RAPM, purely looking at +/- impact of a player on the defensive end would probably be the best bet, but it's way too noisy for single-season data. A lot of other advanced stats using +/- combine it with box score counting stats, but dont know if those are actually better. DBPM, from basketball-reference, is by far the worst, since it's just using box score counting stats like rebounds and steals.

I think it's hard to really capture individual defensive impact as defense is really more team-oriented compared to offense.

edit:
having a quick look at pure +/-, embiid seems to have a slightly bigger defensive impact than jokic this season:
http://www.pbpstats.com/on-off/nba/team?Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&TeamId=1610612755&PlayerId=203954
http://www.pbpstats.com/on-off/nba/team?Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&TeamId=1610612743&PlayerId=203999

-4.22 vs -3.78 Pts per 100 Possessions - Defense when on the floor

[FluLikeSymptoms]

We all know defensive stats suck even more than offensive ones. I don’t know why we’re settling.

[Harry Garris]

We all know defensive stats suck even more than offensive ones. I don’t know why we’re settling.

We're not settling. There just isn't a perfect way to predict a player's defensive value. Especially not when you're trying to extrapolate a stat that was collected over an entire season where a player is going to have ups and downs in terms of effort and playing through injury to a theoretical predictor of how they would perform in a single game or playoff series.

[dhsilv2]

We all know defensive stats suck even more than offensive ones. I don’t know why we’re settling.

Settling? I feel like we get a new stat every year and all the old ones are constantly being adjusted. I think we're far from settling. I'm however not sure we're getting better either.

[Luke Skyowner]

Math expert maybe no but meth expert mostly yes.

[Warriors Analyst]

BPM loves steals for C's and overinflates them. Jokic fares especially well in DBPM as a result.

[cam24thomas]

Jokic is the smartest man in basketball, so he probably just figures out a way to have good defensive stats.

[-Luke-]

Math expert maybe no but meth expert mostly yes.

Does your perception of Jokic's defense change when you're stoned vs. when you're clean?

[skones]

Jokic plays HEAVY minutes with the best players on the Nuggets and plays far less in lineups where he's meant to be a boon to the lesser guys on the roster. This, in part, plays a role into skewing a lot of his impact metrics. Philly also does this with Embiid.

[jazzfan1971]

I think your premise is wrong. The advanced stats I prefer to use, RPM, has embiid the 12th best and jokic the 65th best.

[KyRo23]

He's totally defensive stat padding