Giannis - 2X MVP - FMVP - DPOY - Offseason discussion

[CharityStripe34]

I also enjoy Jason's analysis. He uses stats as well as the eye test but isn't an absolutist with stats. His previous show where he talks about the Bucks/Kings game he called Gianni's game a "masterclass." And his larger discussion about "advanced analytics" was a well-thought out take. By far the best quote was "I'm OK with the fact that we can never sum basketball up to an exact science. I love the organic nature of basketball games." Very salient point and one I agree with.

[Siefer]

I really like Jokic, and try to avoid the MVP scrum, but it's hard not to notice the basketball media circling the wagons (with some cracks forming during Denver's recent slide). Even Lowe, who I consider one of the more even, thoughtful analysts out there, gets defensive and chippy when this comes up. What's going on here? Is it that Jokic validates a kind of advanced stat book-pounding? Is it that he was the runaway favorite at the halfway point and now people are just doubling down? It's a really weird thing to see so many folks dying on a hill for.

[CharityStripe34]

I really like Jokic, and try to avoid the MVP scrum, but it's hard not to notice the basketball media circling the wagons (with some cracks forming during Denver's recent slide). Even Lowe, who I consider one of the more even, thoughtful analysts out there, gets defensive and chippy when this comes up. What's going on here? Is it that Jokic validates a kind of advanced stat book-pounding? Is it that he was the runaway favorite at the halfway point and now people are just doubling down? It's a really weird thing to see so many folks dying on a hill for.

Yes. Not specifically with Lowe, but there seems to be the "Analytics vs. Reg Stats/Eye Test/Narrative" culture war going on beneath the surface of a lot of this MVP race. The dudes who profess the catch-all metrics as being concrete and scientific evidence can be just as toxic as the solely narrative-based people. And it does a disservice to Jokic, since we don't need some complex equation to see that he's a brilliant offensive player having an all-time great season.

[sidney lanier]

I really like Jokic, and try to avoid the MVP scrum, but it's hard not to notice the basketball media circling the wagons (with some cracks forming during Denver's recent slide). Even Lowe, who I consider one of the more even, thoughtful analysts out there, gets defensive and chippy when this comes up. What's going on here? Is it that Jokic validates a kind of advanced stat book-pounding? Is it that he was the runaway favorite at the halfway point and now people are just doubling down? It's a really weird thing to see so many folks dying on a hill for.

I think it's part confirmation bias, part eye test, part defensiveness about the current Denver skid, part cognitive dissonance when looking at the skill and fluidity of Giannis and Embiid compared to the Dad Bod God.

Or maybe just fear of exposure. Are these analytics experts waking up in the middle of the night wondering "What if the guy we thought was the best player in the league is just Tom Boerwinkle with a Serbian accent?"

[Brewhoopfan]

I really like Jokic, and try to avoid the MVP scrum, but it's hard not to notice the basketball media circling the wagons (with some cracks forming during Denver's recent slide). Even Lowe, who I consider one of the more even, thoughtful analysts out there, gets defensive and chippy when this comes up. What's going on here? Is it that Jokic validates a kind of advanced stat book-pounding? Is it that he was the runaway favorite at the halfway point and now people are just doubling down? It's a really weird thing to see so many folks dying on a hill for.

Ironic.

[Prez]

Yeah I think with the Jokic negativity really picking up recently and also Embiid’s recent push here, feels like Embiid will probably get it unless he substantially cools off or misses a bunch of games down the stretch, or Giannis just goes on a rampage the rest of the way and we don’t lose more than like 1 game.

[CharityStripe34]

Gianni could make some real noise if he goes on a 36-14-7 type of tear to close the season, with key wins against Denver, Philly and Boston to secure the #1 seed (potentially with a 60-win season). Some seem to think he and Embiid will cannibalize each other with the votes. Who knows for sure?

If the Bucks go on a tear in the playoffs resulting in title #2 and Freak has another epic playoff run with a FMVP, that's the trophy that really starts to place him in Top 10-ish territory. And it's a real possibility. Still incredible to imagine even just 6-7 years ago.

[Siefer]

Something 2016 taught me was that statistic literacy is in pretty short supply, regardless of the conclusions people are often justifying with their favorite bundle of terms. How many people took 75% to be the guarantee of a prophet? Numbers are not conclusions. 2+2=4 is not explanatory. Statistics are constructs that help us use numbers to try to better understand and explain the world. I'm a huge fan! But it's important to understand that they're constructs, and like any tool they can be ill-conceived, and misused.

I respect Silver's mind, and 538 puts in an earnest effort to try to explain what probabilities and metrics actually do, but RAPTOR (especially DRAPTOR) is riddled with problems (note Jokic's defensive rating rising after he got attacked relentlessly by SA), and I think has generally had a negative impact on people's actual understanding of the game.

[CharityStripe34]

Something 2016 taught me was that statistic literacy is in pretty short supply, regardless of the conclusions people are often justifying with their favorite bundle of terms. How many people took 75% to be the guarantee of a prophet? Numbers are not conclusions. 2+2=4 is not explanatory. Statistics are constructs that help us use numbers to try to better understand and explain the world. I'm a huge fan! But it's important to understand that they're constructs, and like any tool they can be ill-conceived, and misused.

I respect Silver's mind, and 538 puts in an earnest effort to try to explain what probabilities and metrics actually do, but RAPTOR (especially DRAPTOR) is riddled with problems (note Jokic's defensive rating rising after he got attacked relentlessly by SA), and I think has generally had a negative impact on people's actual understanding of the game.

The guys who've come up with these metrics are trying to get a better understanding of the game, but you don't need to come up with quantum physics equations to do that, IMO. Stats are just as flawed as the eye-test. It's always a mixture of both that is your best bet. But the easier stats that paint a good picture are things like "points per post-up" or "points per high-screen." Basically, the things that scouts do when they're analyzing opponents and their tendencies.

[skbucks1985]

Maybe I'm being too cynical when I say this but I think a lot of the advanced stats hardliners look at those of us and especially their fellow writers who view these awards through more traditional measures or some hybrid of advanced stats plus traditional measures with something between bemusement and contempt and see them as troglodytes. And if that is indeed how they feel what makes it so bizarre is that I'm going to guess that the vast majority of writers that are heavy into advanced stats don't have degrees in statistics and maybe I'm going too far out on a limb here but it wouldn't surprise me if they haven't even taken a stats 101 class. Zach Lowe, for example, has a degree in history and a master's in journalism. It is really weird to see them being so defensive and protective over this thing that I don't think they understand. They know the answer to the equation, but they couldn't even begin to try to explain the equation. There's an analogy that I would make that I think describes the dynamic pretty well, but its somewhat politically charged so I'll avoid it.

[Turk Nowitzki]

uhhhhhh.....

Read on Twitter

[Turk Nowitzki]

Seems like something he will be managing for the rest of the season even if it doesn't keep him out, eerily similar to Khris last year.

[CharityStripe34]

I'm sure it's a nagging sprain with consistent soreness. The week buffer between the season and the playoffs will surely help. It's also likely that if (or when) the Bucks secure the #1 seed sooner, they'll start sitting the key players sooner.

[averageposter]

I feel like with Thanasis on the team we have a very easy assist on the juice box, just my opinion, but I feel like that's a real right in the wheelhouse moment.

[German Athens]

I’m fine with Jokic or Embiid winning mvp this year. Jokic is the best offensive player in basketball, and I really have no idea how you stop him other than him playing too passively, and Embiid is an absolute force on both sides who’s potentially just a full bill of health in the post season away from showing everyone he’s as good as anyone else in the world.

My biggest gripe is actually with the best player in the world debate. People will use jokic’s absurd advanced stats to back him up, but we’ve seen Giannis lead the league in many of those same stats in 2019 and 2020, likely a little behind what Jokic has posted the past two years, but they’re close, and we absolutely know Giannis is a better player now than he was those two years.

As a fun aside: Giannis in 2020 had an absurd 15.4 net rating, and that was done while only playing 50% of his minutes with his two best teammates - Regardless of whether you considered that trio to be Gianni/Khris/Bledsoe or Giannis/Khris/Brook.

[Prez]

uhhhhhh.....

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Somehow we will still see nonstop posts in game threads where Giannis sits, about how the Bucks are just full of crap lol.

[Magic Giannison]

I also enjoy Jason's analysis. He uses stats as well as the eye test but isn't an absolutist with stats. His previous show where he talks about the Bucks/Kings game he called Gianni's game a "masterclass." And his larger discussion about "advanced analytics" was a well-thought out take. By far the best quote was "I'm OK with the fact that we can never sum basketball up to an exact science. I love the organic nature of basketball games." Very salient point and one I agree with.

Absolutely and im fine with it when its used with contexts it comes with it but i highly dislike it when its used as main argument in a basketball talk.

I found Jason by mistake btw while listening to Draymons pod lmao

[Magic Giannison]

uhhhhhh.....

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The hell ?

[machu46]

I don’t really understand why people are leaning towards Embiid for MVP. It seems to me that Jokic and Giannis are the only two with a real case for it.

Having said that, glad I bet on Embiid and Giannis a couple weeks ago when it felt like the tide was starting to turn against Jokic; I see Embiid is now the betting favorite.


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[greekbuck34]

If Embiid manages to keep playing like that for another 13 games or so he can get it. But based on the past Embiid will either get sick or pick a minor injury on the way or he will just get extremely tired playing without rest and he will have a bunch of games in a row playing like a semi retired 40y old.

Giannis will be protected and he will definitely not play in the last few games if we secure the 1st seed by then so I don't think he has a chance. If he was healthy this season this could have been one of his easiest MVPs.