Can any math expert explain what Jokic is doing to get such high defensive advanced stats?

[robbie84]

Jokic is the better player. Give Jokic the wingmen that Embid has had and the nuggs are much better than the 76ers.

[Zvaart]

i asked a friend of mine who is a math teacher and he said that this is because he is a good defender.

you're welcome

[Godymas]

It doesn't make any sense at all.

Embiid is averaging 10.2 rebounds (8.4 defensive), 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks. The 6ers as a whole have the 9th best defensive rating in the league at about 113.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 7th in the league in terms of %.

Jokic is averaging 11.9 rebounds (9.5 defensive) 1.2 steals, .7 blocks. The Nuggets as a whole have the 16th best defensive rating in the league at about 114.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their defensive rebounding is 9th in the league in terms of %.

By purely WATCHING the game, no one would pick Jokic as a better player than Embiid and yet all the metrics paint Jokic as this elite defensive presence. I watched Embiid have 4 incredible blocks last night and watched Jokic be a revolving door in the paint vs. the Raptors not too long ago.

I think this has to be related to the team composition both deal with. Jokic plays with a team that is worse overall defensively but does so much rebounding and improves them so much in the on/off numbers that the elite offense and scoring that he is delivering is making their defense look better because his team is out pacing an opponent.

I can't think of any other reason why. Outside of maybe Bruce Brown and KCP who are solid, the guys that Jokic has are not good defenders at all, but with Jokic they win off of offense.

Denver is allowing 113.6/100 with Jokic on, and 117.5 with Jokic off
Philly is allowing 112/100 with Embiid on, 116 with Embiid off

That's virtually identical.
Philly may be 10 spots higher in DRtg rank, but it's only a single point difference per 100, & the blame gets spread out across the team

As other people have mentioned, steals are usually a very important part of the formula - Jokic has a bit of an edge there. He's got the edge in DReb% as well, which makes it 2 out of 3 among the more often looked at defensive stats (STL, BLK, DRB)

Lastly, a lot defensive formulas give assists a decent weight, because high assist numbers help predict defensive performance, probably because it's a proxy for basketball IQ, or playing more team-oriented basketball

defensive metrics including assists is absolutely stupid because at no point is an assist earned while playing the defensive side of the ball

[BelgradeNugget]

I don't know the formula for the majority of defensive stats, some of them that point to Jokic being one of the best defenders in NBA are obviously flawed, but here are some things about his defense that eye tests usually miss.

1. He is bad at blocks, defending the rim the traditional way - we all are taught for a center blocking shot is the best way to play defense under the rim. It is important, guards will not attack the rim against good shot-blockers. But from a mathematical standpoint if the ball goes out of bounds it is equivalent to defensively forcing miss and giving up an offensive board. So half the time block only resets shot-clock. Also shooting % that a player gives up under the rim is important, but what happens next is also important. If a center is overhelping, he might force miss, but leave his player (center) open for an easy putback.

2. At defending the rim he looks terrible, but he is not so bad as it looks - when guards drive to the hoop, he attacks them with swipes to the ball before they jump. Even if he doesn't force a steal or deflection, the guard must change his shot to protect the ball. This will force a miss sometimes, but at the same time, he stays on the ground, still defending/boxing out his man which is important because after a miss he is usually one that collects rebounds. This may look like he is not even challenging a shoot, and when the guard misses we will say it is his mistake, doesn't look like Jokic forced that miss, unlike when a player challenges a shot in the air.

3. Here we come to things he is good at - deflections - from a mathematical standpoint as valuable as a block that goes out of bounds, but with an eye test we will not value it so much.

4. He is great at steals - much more valuable than blocks because they force a change of position

5. Often when we look at him defending the rim it looks like he is not even trying, but he must avoid fouls at all costs because of his importance for the Nuggets. Numbers also point to fewer fouls = better defense. He usually turns up his D in 4Q, and while the Nuggets have the 17th DEFRTG in NBA it goes to no 9 in 4th quarters and 1st in the NBA in the clutch

6. He is also pretty good at positioning in D, forcing guards into floaters or pull-up jumpers instead of shots at the rim. This also looks like he is not challenging (remember he is staying attached to his man) but those are low-quality shots. This tactic doesn't always work (against CP3 or other midrange killers).

7. With his positioning and quick hands, he prevents backdoor cuts, and this is also hard to notice by simple eye tests if someone is not following Nuggets closer.

Those are my observations. I hope I helped.

[Buckeye-NBAFan]

A good example of why stats never tell the whole story and just blindly looking at stats without context has always been a poor argument

To be fair, the op didn't actually name any metrics that support his point.

DWS, DBPM, Defensive RAPTOR

if you aren't aware of these #s for Jokic I don't consider you a basketball fan

If you're not aware Embiid has a higher per minute dws and Jokic has a higher total dws only because he's played more minutes I don't consider you a basketball fan

DBPM? A team plus/minus stat? Really? Also, how do you argue with plus/minus? All it measures is on/off. It can't be wrong. It simply is what it is. And if you choose any other stat that incorporates plus/minus, well obviously having a good plus/minus helps.

So you're not really asking why Jokic has better defensive metrics than Embiid, you're asking why the Sixers bench is so much closer in defensive production to their starters than the Nuggets bench.

[JonFromVA]

He's totally defensive stat padding

He sort of is.

DBPM weighs center assists about the same as blocks. So everytime he goes for those triple doubles, he's padding his defense.

I had no idea DBPM included ast% in the calculation.... that makes no sense

The math doesn't care what makes sense, only what helps correlate box score stats to RAPM without over-fitting.

The problem is any regression or model has an error that's rarely talked about or even put in terms a sports fan would understand, and a model being sort of right on average is not the same thing as the model being specifically right about any two data points.

We want to assume people wouldn't feed us numbers with a large error / variance where we can't even assume things like 3.5 is greater than 2.5; but this is exactly the case. Not to mention, the goal of something like BPM is to try to predict RAPM which has it's own variance and error in it's ability to isolate Plus-Minus to an individual.

And talking about outliers, consider the ultimate defender could put up next to nothing in defensive statistics if the goal of opponents was to completely avoid him. Fortunately, the plus-minus models can pick these kinds of affects/decisions.

[jasonxxx102]

He sort of is.

DBPM weighs center assists about the same as blocks. So everytime he goes for those triple doubles, he's padding his defense.

I had no idea DBPM included ast% in the calculation.... that makes no sense

The math doesn't care what makes sense, only what helps correlate box score stats to RAPM without over-fitting.

The problem is any regression or model has an error that's rarely talked about or even put in terms a sports fan would understand, and a model being sort of right on average is not the same thing as the model being specifically right about any two data points.

We want to assume people wouldn't feed us numbers with a large error / variance where we can't even assume things like 3.5 is greater than 2.5; but this is exactly the case. Not to mention, the goal of something like BPM is to try to predict RAPM which has it's own variance and error in it's ability to isolate Plus-Minus to an individual.

And talking about outliers, consider the ultimate defender could put up next to nothing in defensive statistics if the goal of opponents was to completely avoid him. Fortunately, the plus-minus models can pick these kinds of affects/decisions.

This is the best description I've seen anyone give on this site.

[Godymas]

To be fair, the op didn't actually name any metrics that support his point.

DWS, DBPM, Defensive RAPTOR

if you aren't aware of these #s for Jokic I don't consider you a basketball fan

If you're not aware Embiid has a higher per minute dws and Jokic has a higher total dws only because he's played more minutes I don't consider you a basketball fan

DBPM? A team plus/minus stat? Really? Also, how do you argue with plus/minus? All it measures is on/off. It can't be wrong. It simply is what it is. And if you choose any other stat that incorporates plus/minus, well obviously having a good plus/minus helps.

So you're not really asking why Jokic has better defensive metrics than Embiid, you're asking why the Sixers bench is so much closer in defensive production to their starters than the Nuggets bench.

it's almost like you didn't even read OP, good job

[ItsDanger]

You're comparing individual stats and team stat to another player/team with different variables. 1st step is to normalize the team stat by eliminating widely divergent variables. For example, is there a blowout difference in the team aggregate, that will skew stats.

[dhsilv2]

To be fair, the op didn't actually name any metrics that support his point.

DWS, DBPM, Defensive RAPTOR

if you aren't aware of these #s for Jokic I don't consider you a basketball fan

If you're not aware Embiid has a higher per minute dws and Jokic has a higher total dws only because he's played more minutes I don't consider you a basketball fan

DBPM? A team plus/minus stat? Really? Also, how do you argue with plus/minus? All it measures is on/off. It can't be wrong. It simply is what it is. And if you choose any other stat that incorporates plus/minus, well obviously having a good plus/minus helps.

So you're not really asking why Jokic has better defensive metrics than Embiid, you're asking why the Sixers bench is so much closer in defensive production to their starters than the Nuggets bench.

DBPM isn't a plus minus stat. It's a box score stat that created running regression models between the box score metrics and RAPM to look for the best fit. The goal was to find the box metrics that correlate best back to plus minus data and thus allow us to see the players from the past who might have had the highest RAPM numbers.

[Optms]

Jokic is the better player. Give Jokic the wingmen that Embid has had and the nuggs are much better than the 76ers.

He's not really much better. Offense increase, defense decrease, same record. Jokic and Harden would also be laughable on D in a 7 game series.

[maxpower8888]

Jokic is the better player. Give Jokic the wingmen that Embid has had and the nuggs are much better than the 76ers.

He's not really much better. Offense increase, defense decrease, same record. Jokic and Harden would also be laughable on D in a 7 game series.

Despite being the worse defender of the two, he's still overall the better player. He may not be head and shoulders above Embiid but if you put both of them on a solid squad with a legit 2nd and 3rd option, I would take Jokic any day.

At the end of the day you still need a good team to win a championship. If the GOAT couldn't even do it without Pippen, then why are we constantly acting like the best player on a team is the team?

[Lockdown504090]

Jokic is the better player. Give Jokic the wingmen that Embid has had and the nuggs are much better than the 76ers.

Where do you think the 76ers rank defensively with jokic instead of embiid this season?

Harden
Maxey
Harris
Tucker
Melton
Reed

What scheme could they credibly execute defensively with those lineups? How does jokic interact with harden who doesn’t move without the ball, or shoot off the catch? And finally…., Doc Rivers

[Lockdown504090]

I don't know the formula for the majority of defensive stats, some of them that point to Jokic being one of the best defenders in NBA are obviously flawed, but here are some things about his defense that eye tests usually miss.

1. He is bad at blocks, defending the rim the traditional way - we all are taught for a center blocking shot is the best way to play defense under the rim. It is important, guards will not attack the rim against good shot-blockers. But from a mathematical standpoint if the ball goes out of bounds it is equivalent to defensively forcing miss and giving up an offensive board. So half the time block only resets shot-clock. Also shooting % that a player gives up under the rim is important, but what happens next is also important. If a center is overhelping, he might force miss, but leave his player (center) open for an easy putback.

2. At defending the rim he looks terrible, but he is not so bad as it looks - when guards drive to the hoop, he attacks them with swipes to the ball before they jump. Even if he doesn't force a steal or deflection, the guard must change his shot to protect the ball. This will force a miss sometimes, but at the same time, he stays on the ground, still defending/boxing out his man which is important because after a miss he is usually one that collects rebounds. This may look like he is not even challenging a shoot, and when the guard misses we will say it is his mistake, doesn't look like Jokic forced that miss, unlike when a player challenges a shot in the air.

3. Here we come to things he is good at - deflections - from a mathematical standpoint as valuable as a block that goes out of bounds, but with an eye test we will not value it so much.

4. He is great at steals - much more valuable than blocks because they force a change of position

5. Often when we look at him defending the rim it looks like he is not even trying, but he must avoid fouls at all costs because of his importance for the Nuggets. Numbers also point to fewer fouls = better defense. He usually turns up his D in 4Q, and while the Nuggets have the 17th DEFRTG in NBA it goes to no 9 in 4th quarters and 1st in the NBA in the clutch

6. He is also pretty good at positioning in D, forcing guards into floaters or pull-up jumpers instead of shots at the rim. This also looks like he is not challenging (remember he is staying attached to his man) but those are low-quality shots. This tactic doesn't always work (against CP3 or other midrange killers).

7. With his positioning and quick hands, he prevents backdoor cuts, and this is also hard to notice by simple eye tests if someone is not following Nuggets closer.

Those are my observations. I hope I helped.

Aren’t they second last in rim protection?

[Buckeye-NBAFan]

DWS, DBPM, Defensive RAPTOR

if you aren't aware of these #s for Jokic I don't consider you a basketball fan

If you're not aware Embiid has a higher per minute dws and Jokic has a higher total dws only because he's played more minutes I don't consider you a basketball fan

DBPM? A team plus/minus stat? Really? Also, how do you argue with plus/minus? All it measures is on/off. It can't be wrong. It simply is what it is. And if you choose any other stat that incorporates plus/minus, well obviously having a good plus/minus helps.

So you're not really asking why Jokic has better defensive metrics than Embiid, you're asking why the Sixers bench is so much closer in defensive production to their starters than the Nuggets bench.

it's almost like you didn't even read OP, good job

If you mentioned which metrics in the op, I missed it, sorry.

[Optms]

Jokic is the better player. Give Jokic the wingmen that Embid has had and the nuggs are much better than the 76ers.

He's not really much better. Offense increase, defense decrease, same record. Jokic and Harden would also be laughable on D in a 7 game series.

Despite being the worse defender of the two, he's still overall the better player. He may not be head and shoulders above Embiid but if you put both of them on a solid squad with a legit 2nd and 3rd option, I would take Jokic any day.

At the end of the day you still need a good team to win a championship. If the GOAT couldn't even do it without Pippen, then why are we constantly acting like the best player on a team is the team?

Defense is literately half the game, so you can't say he's "better overall". Jokic's edge is his offensive brilliance, but Embiid is no slouch in that department either. Jokic is an elite offensive player. But he doesn't change the game on defense. Embiid changes the game on both ends.

As for the second option statement, I'd rather have Embiid/Harden than Jokic/Harden considering the former two compliment each other 10x better. Its about fit here when considering second options. Because the talent gap between Jokic and Embiid is razor thin.

[BelgradeNugget]

I don't know the formula for the majority of defensive stats, some of them that point to Jokic being one of the best defenders in NBA are obviously flawed, but here are some things about his defense that eye tests usually miss.

1. He is bad at blocks, defending the rim the traditional way - we all are taught for a center blocking shot is the best way to play defense under the rim. It is important, guards will not attack the rim against good shot-blockers. But from a mathematical standpoint if the ball goes out of bounds it is equivalent to defensively forcing miss and giving up an offensive board. So half the time block only resets shot-clock. Also shooting % that a player gives up under the rim is important, but what happens next is also important. If a center is overhelping, he might force miss, but leave his player (center) open for an easy putback.

2. At defending the rim he looks terrible, but he is not so bad as it looks - when guards drive to the hoop, he attacks them with swipes to the ball before they jump. Even if he doesn't force a steal or deflection, the guard must change his shot to protect the ball. This will force a miss sometimes, but at the same time, he stays on the ground, still defending/boxing out his man which is important because after a miss he is usually one that collects rebounds. This may look like he is not even challenging a shoot, and when the guard misses we will say it is his mistake, doesn't look like Jokic forced that miss, unlike when a player challenges a shot in the air.

3. Here we come to things he is good at - deflections - from a mathematical standpoint as valuable as a block that goes out of bounds, but with an eye test we will not value it so much.

4. He is great at steals - much more valuable than blocks because they force a change of position

5. Often when we look at him defending the rim it looks like he is not even trying, but he must avoid fouls at all costs because of his importance for the Nuggets. Numbers also point to fewer fouls = better defense. He usually turns up his D in 4Q, and while the Nuggets have the 17th DEFRTG in NBA it goes to no 9 in 4th quarters and 1st in the NBA in the clutch

6. He is also pretty good at positioning in D, forcing guards into floaters or pull-up jumpers instead of shots at the rim. This also looks like he is not challenging (remember he is staying attached to his man) but those are low-quality shots. This tactic doesn't always work (against CP3 or other midrange killers).

7. With his positioning and quick hands, he prevents backdoor cuts, and this is also hard to notice by simple eye tests if someone is not following Nuggets closer.

Those are my observations. I hope I helped.

Aren’t they second last in rim protection?

If you mean as FG% opponents shot at the rim against them, I didn't check but I guess you're right. Thing with this defensive stat is it is flowed as many others. Let's say team forces miss at the rim, but let opponents secure O board, opponent misses tip shot, and makes second tip shot. Math will tell you you let 33% at the rim, which is great, but at the same time you didn't prevent opponent from scoring in basically 1 offensive possession.

[maxpower8888]

He's not really much better. Offense increase, defense decrease, same record. Jokic and Harden would also be laughable on D in a 7 game series.

Despite being the worse defender of the two, he's still overall the better player. He may not be head and shoulders above Embiid but if you put both of them on a solid squad with a legit 2nd and 3rd option, I would take Jokic any day.

At the end of the day you still need a good team to win a championship. If the GOAT couldn't even do it without Pippen, then why are we constantly acting like the best player on a team is the team?

Defense is literately half the game, so you can't say he's "better overall". Jokic's edge is his offensive brilliance, but Embiid is no slouch in that department either. Jokic is an elite offensive player. But he doesn't change the game on defense. Embiid changes the game on both ends.

As for the second option statement, I'd rather have Embiid/Harden than Jokic/Harden considering the former two compliment each other 10x better. Its about fit here when considering second options. Because the talent gap between Jokic and Embiid is razor thin.

Maybe in the NFL defense is half the game, but in basketball offense will always be more valuable than defense. It doesn't matter how good of a defender a player is, he'll never be able to shut down a great offensive player.

And yes it's true that the players need to compliment each other, but considering the fact that Jokic's best player has been Jamal Murray who's been a borderline All-Star with one good bubble series, and what he's been able to do with the roster he's had shows just how valuable he is to any team. Even with Harden who isn't a great defender I would still take Jokic and Harden because offensively you're combining a low usage player who can produce a ton for himself and others with a higher usage player who can produce a ton for himself and others.

[Godymas]

If you're not aware Embiid has a higher per minute dws and Jokic has a higher total dws only because he's played more minutes I don't consider you a basketball fan

DBPM? A team plus/minus stat? Really? Also, how do you argue with plus/minus? All it measures is on/off. It can't be wrong. It simply is what it is. And if you choose any other stat that incorporates plus/minus, well obviously having a good plus/minus helps.

So you're not really asking why Jokic has better defensive metrics than Embiid, you're asking why the Sixers bench is so much closer in defensive production to their starters than the Nuggets bench.

it's almost like you didn't even read OP, good job

If you mentioned which metrics in the op, I missed it, sorry.

thank you for letting me know to ignore your posts for the rest of time

[Mickey8]

You can also ask the same question about Embiid , because every time I watch Sixers games, I see halves where their opponents scoring 60 or 70 points and the players running circles around him all the time.