Three year peak, Embiid vs. KG

[GSP]

Embiid is sooo detrimental to his teams' offensive rebounding (like, I probably dock him 0.5 points of value for that alone) that I'm not sure he's that much better offensively, despite being a wildly better scorer.

I have KG easily ahead.

(Jokic, on the other hand...)

Care to explain what that means?

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

Wow this is extremely interesting info. Glad i have a statistical reason to hate his flopping ass now too

[VDT]

Embiid is sooo detrimental to his teams' offensive rebounding (like, I probably dock him 0.5 points of value for that alone) that I'm not sure he's that much better offensively, despite being a wildly better scorer.

I have KG easily ahead.

(Jokic, on the other hand...)

Care to explain what that means?

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

Not sure how you link this to flopping (whatever that means). Compared to the league average center Embiid takes much more shots and since he tends to shoot a lot of jumpers and Fts there is obviously less of a chance for offensive rebounds. Beyond that, it is true that offensive rebounding is not his first priority, probably to conserve energy and avoid extra fouls. Flopping has probably very little to do with these numbers.

[OhayoKD]

Embiid is sooo detrimental to his teams' offensive rebounding (like, I probably dock him 0.5 points of value for that alone) that I'm not sure he's that much better offensively, despite being a wildly better scorer.

I have KG easily ahead.

(Jokic, on the other hand...)

Care to explain what that means?

Sure.

Embiid's positioning and flopping around to get free throws comes at a cost.

Team offensive rebounding
Embiid on court -> Embiid off court
2021: 20.4% -> 25.3% (League average: 22.2%)
2022: 16.4% -> 24.8% (League average: 23.2%)
2023: 19.3% -> 23.2% (League average: 24.1%)

Changing Embiid to *random center* probably amounts to ~two extra posessions per game (higher value posessions than most, too, probably 0.15 to 0.20 extra points each, plus a blip on defense, since Embiid's non-rebounding does not really come paired with improved transition D). That's noticeable.

Nice work

[pipfan]

The amount of games/minutes played is a clear determining factor for me.

Embiid has played 55% of his team's minutes over the last 3 years
Garnett played 83% of his team's minutes from 2003-2005

It makes any further analysis pointless if the players are somewhat comparable otherwise.

Great point-KG was never a playoff stud like some guys, but he played very well. Embiid has not led his team out of the 2nd round yet-and that falls mainly on him (Simmons/Harden too, but he is the team leader who always seems to fall short)

Plus, Embiid just flops too much-I hate watching him play and I loved KG's intense style

[trex_8063]

It looks like Jokic/Giannis for 1/2 to me right now.

Embiid appears to be media favorite right now

He does appear to have a fair bit of buzz (Philly finishing the season strong is certainly helping).

Personally, I think it clearly SHOULD be Jokic for a 3rd time; but I know voter fatigue is a real thing. So I'd not be surprised if Embiid is bestowed with the honour (especially given he was runner-up each of the last two years).

[dygaction]

It looks like Jokic/Giannis for 1/2 to me right now.

Embiid appears to be media favorite right now

He does appear to have a fair bit of buzz (Philly finishing the season strong is certainly helping).

Personally, I think it clearly SHOULD be Jokic for a 3rd time; but I know voter fatigue is a real thing. So I'd not be surprised if Embiid is bestowed with the honour (especially given he was runner-up each of the last two years).

Someone mentioned in the MVP thread, and I kind of agree that Perk poisoned the water. Some voters that may be undecided between these two would want to avoid trouble by going with Embiid.. then it would be up to Jokic's fans to argue to what degree it had been affected. Also might be a year with MVP on the second all-NBA.

[SkyHookFTW]

Just for fun I looks up some stats and was surprised to see that Embiid has more boards per game than KG in both the RS and playoffs.

[trex_8063]

Just for fun I looks up some stats and was surprised to see that Embiid has more boards per game than KG in both the RS and playoffs.

Compare prime vs prime, or peak vs peak. Then maybe your surprise will vanish.

[SkyHookFTW]

Just for fun I looks up some stats and was surprised to see that Embiid has more boards per game than KG in both the RS and playoffs.

Compare prime vs prime, or peak vs peak. Then maybe your surprise will vanish.

Their single best year is very close, KG’s last four years in Minny are great, then he goes to Boston and never sniffs double digit rebounds or 20 ppg again. Interesting trade off between rebounds (KG about 2-3 more per game in his four year peak) vs Embiid’s volume scoring (5-6 ppg more). Embiid could never be the transition defender that KG was because KG is simply quicker up and down the court.

[dygaction]

Just for fun I looks up some stats and was surprised to see that Embiid has more boards per game than KG in both the RS and playoffs.

that cannot be true...

[SkyHookFTW]

Just for fun I looks up some stats and was surprised to see that Embiid has more boards per game than KG in both the RS and playoffs.

that cannot be true...

It’s over the course of his career, not peak.

[cupcakesnake]

Just for fun I looks up some stats and was surprised to see that Embiid has more boards per game than KG in both the RS and playoffs.

that cannot be true...

It’s over the course of his career, not peak.

I'm not sure why you're posting this in a thread about comparing their 3-year peaks. Embiid has only played 7 seasons, all in his physical peak years. KG has more post prime seasons (9) that Embiid has total seasons. Post-prime seasons are defined by less production.

If we compare the aged 22-28 seasons (that captures all of Embiid's career), KG averages 12.5rpg to Embiid's 11.2. KG plays more minutes though and Embiid has a slightly better rebounding rate (17.1 vs. 16.8 per 100). KG is a better rebounder in the playoffs by a wider margin.

Just going by the 3-year peak discussed in this thread, KG averaged 13.6rpg (18.5 per100) and Embiid averaged 10.9rpg (16.1per100).

[dygaction]

Just for fun I looks up some stats and was surprised to see that Embiid has more boards per game than KG in both the RS and playoffs.

that cannot be true...

It’s over the course of his career, not peak.

that's not fair... Embiid only played from 22-28 yr old. KG also played 19-21 and 31-39 old