Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[Yallbecrazy]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/11t4qzi/pelton_nba_draft_statbased_projections_and_why/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

How is Nick Smith ahead of Podz in a stat based rankings? How is Nick Smith in the top 100?

[Kevin Willis]

I don't think Edey was the problem.
Purdue having a bunch of unathletic shooters on the floor who missed all their wide open threes was the problem.
I still don't draft Edey even late in the 2nd round though.

Oh Edey definitely wasn't why they lost, but he also definitely wasn't the reason why they won.

And he should have been.

They denied him on the block like it was nothing, he struggled with his decision making out of the double teams and overall didn't come through in the clutch. For a guy who is 7'4 close to 300 lbs he should have been able to establish himself in the post a ton more and he couldn't. He also is just overall slow to react and has relied on his length to compensate for this at the college level. He won't get away with it in the NBA.

All year Purdue has been the Zach Edey show, it's unfair to pin the loss on him because he couldn't do everything. Put him around better players he would be more efficient. He needs shooters and his shooters were bad today. In terms of FDU, it happens when a team plays out of their mind for one game. That's March madness. Look at St. Mary last year. I wouldn't be on them making a run anywhere.

Cason Wallace didn't play great today, it doesn't mean all of a sudden he sucks. It was one of those games for him. Unless he's been been bad lately, I haven't checked.

[Mark_83]

My current non-orthodox top 10 based on my future performance projection.

1) Victor Wembanyama
2) Jarace Walker
3) Brandon Miller
4) Cam Whitmore
5) Scoot Henderson
6) Amen Thompson
7) Anthony Black
8) Taylor Hendricks
9) Cason Wallace
10) Brice Sensabaugh

viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2215015&p=103780042#p103780042

Update my top 10 list from January:

1) Victor Wembanyama
2) Brandon Miller
3) Taylor Hendricks
4) Scoot Henderson
5) Jarace Walker
6) Amen Thompson
7) Cam Whitmore
8) Anthony Black
9) Cason Wallace
10) Bilal Coulibaly

Just outside: Dick, Bufkin, Ausur, Cissoko, Lively, Sensebaugh.

Talent-wise I have GG as a top 10 guy, but I don't think he's a winning player so I have him as a DND for a team I would build.

[WuTang_CMB]

I don't think Edey was the problem.
Purdue having a bunch of unathletic shooters on the floor who missed all their wide open threes was the problem.
I still don't draft Edey even late in the 2nd round though.

Oh Edey definitely wasn't why they lost, but he also definitely wasn't the reason why they won.

And he should have been.

They denied him on the block like it was nothing, he struggled with his decision making out of the double teams and overall didn't come through in the clutch. For a guy who is 7'4 close to 300 lbs he should have been able to establish himself in the post a ton more and he couldn't. He also is just overall slow to react and has relied on his length to compensate for this at the college level. He won't get away with it in the NBA.

All year Purdue has been the Zach Edey show, it's unfair to pin the loss on him because he couldn't do everything. Put him around better players he would be more efficient. He needs shooters and his shooters were bad today. In terms of FDU, it happens when a team plays out of their mind for one game. That's March madness. Look at St. Mary last year. I wouldn't be on them making a run anywhere.

Cason Wallace didn't play great today, it doesn't mean all of a sudden he sucks. It was one of those games for him. Unless he's been been bad lately, I haven't checked.

Too many bad gm’s put all kinds of stock in this tournament. Thats where you get burned. Body of work.. always.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I don't think Edey was the problem.
Purdue having a bunch of unathletic shooters on the floor who missed all their wide open threes was the problem.
I still don't draft Edey even late in the 2nd round though.

Oh Edey definitely wasn't why they lost, but he also definitely wasn't the reason why they won.

And he should have been.

They denied him on the block like it was nothing, he struggled with his decision making out of the double teams and overall didn't come through in the clutch. For a guy who is 7'4 close to 300 lbs he should have been able to establish himself in the post a ton more and he couldn't. He also is just overall slow to react and has relied on his length to compensate for this at the college level. He won't get away with it in the NBA.

All year Purdue has been the Zach Edey show, it's unfair to pin the loss on him because he couldn't do everything. Put him around better players he would be more efficient. He needs shooters and his shooters were bad today. In terms of FDU, it happens when a team plays out of their mind for one game. That's March madness. Look at St. Mary last year. I wouldn't be on them making a run anywhere.

Cason Wallace didn't play great today, it doesn't mean all of a sudden he sucks. It was one of those games for him. Unless he's been been bad lately, I haven't checked.

If Edey were truly a special player and worthy of getting NBA minutes like many people claim he is, he would have found a way to bully the shortest team in the NCAA in the paint and put more than 11 shots up. I watched the entire game, his field goal percentage means nothing to me because when he gets close to the rim against most NCAA competition he's automatic, what I'm looking for is how often he is able to establish himself there and what he does when he can't. He was also confused on defense as to when to drop in coverage and his late reaction to their 5'8 point guard slashing to the bucket was pretty funny. His NBA ceiling is basically Boban.

[HumbleRen]

Edey trending on Twitter lol. Dude is getting roasted.

[Rapsfan07]

Ya I called BS on George, Smith Jr. and Terquavion a while ago.

If you want a losing brand of heroball gameplay you can pick your poison.

George is the best prospect out of all of them but if he doesn't fix his shooting he'll be out of the NBA fast. If he improves his shot selection and overall shooting efficiency then I can see him being a quality starter but there's a lot that needs to happen for him to get there and I don't feel he has any special qualities as a player. There's also a good chance if he becomes a good shooter he'll be a guy that loses you games with boneheaded turnovers.

Terquavion last year yes, he's a chucker and still a chucker but he's gotten stronger and more of a playmaker this year. Leave all the SG's alone.

Not you, but the person you quoted is all over the place. But these guys who are misacted as go to guys for their programs won't be go to guys in the NBA, but that shouldn't diminish their overall talent level because of it. I don't think he's giving that any credence at all.

I was pretty high on George at the beginning of the season but now I don't know what to make of him, much less the other guys, seeing that George is better than them both.

But I do agree on this - they are definitely being miscasted on their respective teams as go-to guys when they clearly aren't. However, it's worth considering that just because they aren't that, doesn't mean they can't be productive NBA players, seeing as they won't be in that role at the next level.

At some point, you have to admit that it isn't a fair assessment of the player's talent if you only view them through the lens of whether or not they're going to be a star.

That being said, I still don't know how to feel about these guys.

[BoyzNTheHood]

George and Terq would be incredible 6th men on championship rosters. They’re exactly the type of guys who will be in the running for 6th man of the year annually if used properly.

[Rapsfan07]

George and Terq would be incredible 6th men on championship rosters. They’re exactly the type of guys who will be in the running for 6th man of the year annually if used properly.

Agreed. I believe that will probably be their role at the next level.

[BoyzNTheHood]

George and Terq would be incredible 6th men on championship rosters. They’re exactly the type of guys who will be in the running for 6th man of the year annually if used properly.

Agreed. I believe that will probably be their role at the next level.

Personally, I think you take guys like that in the lottery. I have to check the full board out again, but it seems plausible for most drafts so I don’t see why it wouldn’t be true this year as well. There’s a lot of skill there, but they lack discipline. Players like that have notoriously been better bench guys because most NBA benches are weak and require a go-to guy to play off of.

[BoyzNTheHood]

TJD looks like an NBA player in an NCAA game. He’s clearly the best player on the floor. In contrast, one of my early favourites JHS looks lost. I don’t know what his stats are, but Jalen might need to return for another season. He just brings the ball up and doesn’t do anything with it.

[bballsparkin]

Tough loss Memphis.

[PhilBlackson]

Although I highly doubt MLSE is going to allow Masai to take any chances missing out on their Playoff profit, I really wish they would just pack it in and ensure we end up getting someone like Hendricks, Black or maybe even Wallace. I said it last year that I'd rather be at the back end of the lottery than a meaningless 1st round exit and I stand by that again this year.

I remember posters like Los swearing the Playoff experience was "too important" and look how it basically had no impact on how guys have played this season. Meanwhile I watch Jalen Williams (who was the player I was saying endlessly I hope we stay in that range for) and imagine how much better the outlook would be if we had him & essentially locked in for the next 7-8 years (w/ Scottie), he would've been one of been apart of one of the best group of wings in the league. Even if we didn't drop down to 12 (which I think especially if we just rested Fred & not traded for Thad would've been entirely possible), we could've had AJ Griffin and with either young player, no one would even really care what happens with Gary this off-season.

Anyways I just think in what projects to be a deep draft, you can all but guarantee that there will be at least one guy in that 8-12 range (where we should've been) that we're going to again regret gunning for a truly pointless Playoff "appearance" being that we're not bringing back all of FVV, Gary & Yak, so the mediocre team we're seeing right now is not even an accurate depiction of the team we'll have, it will be a worse one and this team is already mid. Really, really praying we don't make the same mistake twice, even if it seems inevitable that we do.

[S ID]

Anthony Black
Cason Wallace
Taylor Hendricks

Hope to god we get one of these guys

[Thaddy]

Anthony Black
Cason Wallace
Taylor Hendricks

Hope to god we get one of these guys

Black is definitely gone and Hendricks stock is rising too. Wallace is the safest pick in our range. I'm hoping other GMs take the risk on guys like Dick, Whitmore, and Jackson.

[OakleyDokely]

After yesterday, Edey is 7ft fooooore

[ATLTimekeeper]

George and Terq would be incredible 6th men on championship rosters. They’re exactly the type of guys who will be in the running for 6th man of the year annually if used properly.

I'm not nearly that high on either. One thing I noticed is that if you have a DBPM under 1.5, it's pretty much guaranteed that you will be a liability on defense in the NBA. There just aren't many examples of even scratch quality defenders that graded that poorly. The guys that were still really good players being that bad on D tend to be supremely efficient productive offensive players in college (think Markannen, Trae, Lillard, Morant). What George and Terq have going against them is that they're inefficient at what they do best, and then offer nothing away from the ball.

[tecumseh18]

Oh Edey definitely wasn't why they lost, but he also definitely wasn't the reason why they won.

And he should have been.

They denied him on the block like it was nothing, he struggled with his decision making out of the double teams and overall didn't come through in the clutch. For a guy who is 7'4 close to 300 lbs he should have been able to establish himself in the post a ton more and he couldn't. He also is just overall slow to react and has relied on his length to compensate for this at the college level. He won't get away with it in the NBA.

All year Purdue has been the Zach Edey show, it's unfair to pin the loss on him because he couldn't do everything. Put him around better players he would be more efficient. He needs shooters and his shooters were bad today. In terms of FDU, it happens when a team plays out of their mind for one game. That's March madness. Look at St. Mary last year. I wouldn't be on them making a run anywhere.

Cason Wallace didn't play great today, it doesn't mean all of a sudden he sucks. It was one of those games for him. Unless he's been been bad lately, I haven't checked.

If Edey were truly a special player and worthy of getting NBA minutes like many people claim he is, he would have found a way to bully the shortest team in the NCAA in the paint and put more than 11 shots up. I watched the entire game, his field goal percentage means nothing to me because when he gets close to the rim against most NCAA competition he's automatic, what I'm looking for is how often he is able to establish himself there and what he does when he can't. He was also confused on defense as to when to drop in coverage and his late reaction to their 5'8 point guard slashing to the bucket was pretty funny. His NBA ceiling is basically Boban.

Guys suck in the tournament and then do well in the league all the time. In 2006, Tyrus Thomas made LMA look weak, but who had the better career? In 2021, Franz Wagner disappointed in his one tourney game. Conversely, I watched the legendary UCLA-Zags Final Four game in 2021, and was all in on Suggs in the draft.

It. Doesn't. Matter. Body of work matters.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Guys that fit more into that bench 6th man spot would be closer to Sensabaugh, Murray, Jordan Hawkins, Tubelis. These are guys that will likely be weak defenders at the next level, but they produce well enough on offense that it could be worth it.

[Rapsfan07]

TJD looks like an NBA player in an NCAA game. He’s clearly the best player on the floor. In contrast, one of my early favourites JHS looks lost. I don’t know what his stats are, but Jalen might need to return for another season. He just brings the ball up and doesn’t do anything with it.

Couldn't agree more. Dudes a beast and is on my potential steal list.