Post Game Thread: We’re going Streaking!!!

[bad knees]

I predict it will not help one iota or even hurt. DJJ isn’t even playing at all. Where is his role other than taking Pat’s minutes, which I realize a handful of you will celebrate like New Year’s? With the Bev/Caruso move Green returning forces more one dimensional redundancy and roster imbalance while further exacerbating our size issues. Which I realize is Mother’s Milk to the AKME/BD Bulls.

Net rating for the season
Javonte +7.8
DJJ +3.9
Patrick -8.4

DJJ really isn't playing much. It will be interesting to see if Donovan fully pulls Patrick from the rotation when Green comes back. I suspect he won't, leaving Green as playing very little and having little impact as Duck said.

Okay, I decided I couldn’t just disregard the merit of a stat without looking at it (again, I’ve done this before in the past). And when I looked at it I was not shocked to learn how wildly dependent on role and who you share the floor with it is, which is why I disregard it. Pat has proven an excellent example of the flaw (in a way that makes Pat look good).

In the last 11 games since Pat has been moved to a reserve (like Javonte) Pat’s net rating is +7.4 and as a reserve his +/- during that stretch is +8.2. This is despite his general individual stats remaining largely static except field goal % which has gone up.

P.S. Pat’s net rating for the season is -2.8 and Javonte’s is +6.9. So using Pat’s numbers in Javonte’s role Javonte should not ever play because Pat is clearly better. (I don’t actually believe that argument because it’s terrible.)

You are also missing the point. Last year, as a starter, Javonte had a +3.5 on/off. He also was the best PF on the team this season until he got hurt, and BD had installed him as the starter, which unfortunately was interrupted because Green was hurt in his first game in the starter role. Javonte ought to start and PWill ought to come off the bench.

[RastaBull]

I predict it will not help one iota or even hurt. DJJ isn’t even playing at all. Where is his role other than taking Pat’s minutes, which I realize a handful of you will celebrate like New Year’s? With the Bev/Caruso move Green returning forces more one dimensional redundancy and roster imbalance while further exacerbating our size issues. Which I realize is Mother’s Milk to the AKME/BD Bulls.

Net rating for the season
Javonte +7.8
DJJ +3.9
Patrick -8.4

DJJ really isn't playing much. It will be interesting to see if Donovan fully pulls Patrick from the rotation when Green comes back. I suspect he won't, leaving Green as playing very little and having little impact as Duck said.

I’ll make this simple and conclusory: I don’t care. And if the +/- of an individual is BD’s gauge to determine who should play and how much rather than creating balanced lineups that doesn’t say anything good about him at all as a basketball mind. Stats that depend on how the other 4 guys are playing have never meant anything of significance to me.

That’s not because of Pat. I’ve been a critic of using that stat since it started being used. It’s one of the worst of the oft-repeated statistical arguments there is, possibly second only to declaring someone to be a good scorer based solely on ppg.

It would be absolutely hilarious to trade Pat’s size and shooting for Javonte’s tiny stature and complete lack of skill. But it’s certainly a believable scenario.

I agree. I really like Javonte A LOT. But I wasn’t suggesting or hoping to see his return have any impact at all on Pat’s minutes. My prayer is his return only pushes Ayo down in the rotation.

For example, if AC is starting, then I hope that Javonte is getting the 15-20 minutes from the bench and Ayo getting some DNPs (of course I’m not hoping he gets only DNPs, but that he gets the DJJ current role where he’s thrown in for only spurts where something needed mixing up).

If AC is out it’s more difficult. Billy has put Ayo as ACs substitute in the starting lineup and I absolutely hate that. I think natural inclination if Javonte was back is Billy might put him in there if not Ayo. I don’t really like that either. Javonte is an asset off the bench, less so as a starter.

The more obvious look would to put any actual size we have in place of AC in starting role, Pat Williams. Initially I hesitate because I’m so happy with the way he’s approaching the game since moving to a bench role with Coby. But if the options outside of AC, I’m def most comfortable with Williams. I just hope inserting back into the starting role he can carry over the approach and development he’s had in his brief view from the bench.

To that point, it’s also possible it’s less to do with moving to bench and more to do with Bev. Someone said it in game thread and I agree, I’ve really like from the eye test of the two pats with the big three. More I think about it, it may be my favorite lineup. There is top level defensive intensity and leadership form Bev. There is really great defensive athleticism from Williams, and with a Bulldog like Bev commanding from behind, Williams is translating the innate skill into really high IQ impact plus (seriously, he is reaching in without fouling and then disrupting or causing turnovers, feels like he’s always getting contested close out blocks/tips on three point shots). That’s what the big 3 need more than anything from the two starters.

But on offense, Bev is always going to hold Williams accountable in ways no one else ever has. He commands movement from guys and he’ll get on Williams case when he doesn’t take on a matchup or passes up something easy. I do believe the two Pats provide good balance of leadership on defense and supportive roles on offense to take on starting role with AC out.

And with Javonte back, that means he can ply off the bench (maybe some more DJJ too) instead of Ayo to cover the backup 4 minutes. Javonte is a better defender than Ayo. I love watching Javonte’s defense and it’s very in tune with the team defense. (Which I feel like Ayo loses track of).

[coldfish]

Okay, I decided I couldn’t just disregard the merit of a stat without looking at it (again, I’ve done this before in the past). And when I looked at it I was not shocked to learn how wildly dependent on role and who you share the floor with it is, which is why I disregard it. Pat has proven an excellent example of the flaw (in a way that makes Pat look good).

In the last 11 games since Pat has been moved to a reserve (like Javonte) Pat’s net rating is +7.4 and as a reserve his +/- during that stretch is +8.2. This is despite his general individual stats remaining largely static except field goal % which has gone up.

P.S. Pat’s net rating for the season is -2.8 and Javonte’s is +6.9. So using Pat’s numbers in Javonte’s role Javonte should not ever play because Pat is clearly better. (I don’t actually believe that argument because it’s terrible.)

I was going to type out a reply before but honestly, I'm not invested in this team one iota. We disagree but the state of the team is such that its not worth arguing over. I don't think much of Javonte's ceiling so I hope I am wrong on PW and that Patrick becomes a superduperstar and makes the team watchable.

All I did was use your stat, which was pretty badly inaccurate to begin with according to NBA.com but maybe different sites have different stats. I don’t believe in anything I just argued about that stat except the part saying it has no real value generally, and certainly not as applied here.

You can agree or disagree but it says what is says, or don’t. The only reason I looked it up again is because it’s Pat. I get the apathy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2023/on-off/

There was the source.

When Patrick is on the court, the Bulls are -2.2 per 100
When Patrick is off the court, the Bulls are +6.2 per 100
Net of -8.4

When Javonte is on the court, the Bulls are +8.0
When Javonte is off the court, the Bulls are +0.2
Net of +7.8

I generally agree that +/- stats are highly contextualized and are easy to take out of context and read too much into. That said, Ayo and Patrick stick out like a sore thumb here. I would argue that Javonte has such a good number, not because he is good, but him playing means that Patrick isn't.

Just taken on its surface, the Bulls are actually a pretty good team with Ayo and Patrick on the bench. It will be an interesting statistical validity test to see how that holds.

Edit add, just for giggles: The Bulls are +12.8/100 with PBev on the floor so if they could get him to play 48 a night, they would win the NBA title.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I really do believe Javonte coming back into the fold while the team is playing well will give them another solid tick up

I predict it will not help one iota or even hurt. DJJ isn’t even playing at all. Where is his role other than taking Pat’s minutes, which I realize a handful of you will celebrate like New Year’s? With the Bev/Caruso move Green returning forces more one dimensional redundancy and roster imbalance while further exacerbating our size issues. Which I realize is Mother’s Milk to the AKME/BD Bulls.

Net rating for the season
Javonte +7.8
DJJ +3.9
Patrick -8.4

DJJ really isn't playing much. It will be interesting to see if Donovan fully pulls Patrick from the rotation when Green comes back. I suspect he won't, leaving Green as playing very little and having little impact as Duck said.

What is his net rating off the bench? Which from what I have seen is now positive.

[DuckIII]

Pat has had two M-Bev-P games that have been huge but on the whole I think Lavine’s play is massively more important to our more recent success. Given his age and history the Bulls can’t rest on him as a solution this summer.

But like Coby, I see a good role for him on this team if we stay in win now mode or try to rebuild. Though as a reserve in both scenarios. If he’s our answer at point next year then we didn’t really address the question.

We’re the second best team in the league with PatBev as our starting PG. Yes Lavine is playing better, but part of that is the PatBev effect of making sure Lavine gets the ball in the right places and situations. Given what I have seen so far, I am completely fine with bringing PatBev back as our starting PG. He’s exactly what we need in a PG.

And there's really not much options available who is that much better either. We need to consider fit as well. And Bev fits like a glove.

He fits. The question is whether he’s the guy. If the FO approaches the offseason as though he is, that’s as big a mistake as continuing to fail to address the 4 with better length or the 5 with better D off the bench.

If they can’t land someone better than Pat so be it. But they have to try and it should be on a short list of priorities.

Regardless, Pat and Coby are the two guys on the roster who fit either course the FO might take, in my view.

[chitownsports4ever]

The way I see it when AC is healthy

Coby becomes the true 3rd guard

Ayo slides out of the rotation


Drummond
Pat
Javonte
Demar
Coby

is the bench unit


Since Caruso is not healthy

start Javonte

Ayo is still out of the rotation

Drummond
Pat
Demar
Terry
Coby

is the bench unit

[bad knees]

Sam Smith on the PatBev train.

https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/the-pat-bev-effect-beverleys-presence-is-game-changing-for-the-bulls

[DuckIII]

Net rating for the season
Javonte +7.8
DJJ +3.9
Patrick -8.4

DJJ really isn't playing much. It will be interesting to see if Donovan fully pulls Patrick from the rotation when Green comes back. I suspect he won't, leaving Green as playing very little and having little impact as Duck said.

Okay, I decided I couldn’t just disregard the merit of a stat without looking at it (again, I’ve done this before in the past). And when I looked at it I was not shocked to learn how wildly dependent on role and who you share the floor with it is, which is why I disregard it. Pat has proven an excellent example of the flaw (in a way that makes Pat look good).

In the last 11 games since Pat has been moved to a reserve (like Javonte) Pat’s net rating is +7.4 and as a reserve his +/- during that stretch is +8.2. This is despite his general individual stats remaining largely static except field goal % which has gone up.

P.S. Pat’s net rating for the season is -2.8 and Javonte’s is +6.9. So using Pat’s numbers in Javonte’s role Javonte should not ever play because Pat is clearly better. (I don’t actually believe that argument because it’s terrible.)

You are also missing the point. Last year, as a starter, Javonte had a +3.5 on/off. He also was the best PF on the team this season until he got hurt, and BD had installed him as the starter, which unfortunately was interrupted because Green was hurt in his first game in the starter role. Javonte ought to start and PWill ought to come off the bench.

His stats last year are irrelevant and even if they weren’t his +/- as a starter was a meager +0.1.

And look, I don’t care about the on/off stuff anyway. It’s nonsense even when it supports my boy Pat. I don’t use arguments just because they might be convenient to my conclusions. I use ones that make sense. And I just illustrated how this particular stat can artificially inflate a players value based on these factors.

You guys can use it all you want, but it’s trash.

[DuckIII]

I predict it will not help one iota or even hurt. DJJ isn’t even playing at all. Where is his role other than taking Pat’s minutes, which I realize a handful of you will celebrate like New Year’s? With the Bev/Caruso move Green returning forces more one dimensional redundancy and roster imbalance while further exacerbating our size issues. Which I realize is Mother’s Milk to the AKME/BD Bulls.

Net rating for the season
Javonte +7.8
DJJ +3.9
Patrick -8.4

DJJ really isn't playing much. It will be interesting to see if Donovan fully pulls Patrick from the rotation when Green comes back. I suspect he won't, leaving Green as playing very little and having little impact as Duck said.

What is his net rating off the bench? Which from what I have seen is now positive.

Pat off the bench is +8.2 and +7.4 net. And the difference statistically is who he plays with rather than his individual statistics changing to account for the huge bump. His shooting efficiency is up and his PPG is very minimally up as a result on a per minute basis (same output in 25 mins as a reserve relative to 29 mpg as starter) but his rebounding numbers are cut almost in half on a per minute basis.

It’s about units, from both teams, not individuals.

[DuckIII]

The more obvious look would to put any actual size we have in place of AC in starting role, Pat Williams.

I don’t want Pat anywhere near the starting lineup again this season. It’s proven to be a better role to free him up to play with confidence and his improvement is far more important to the future of this franchise than anything this ho hum team will do this year.

The less he plays with the Big 3 the better for Pat which, in the long run, is also better for the team.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

For old time's sake I'd like to point out that the Heat are garbage. Lowry's eating up a lot of their cap I understand but they really have nothing going for them. People have been slobbing their knob since that bubble run - they are trash. They are not "dangerous" and never have been.

[RSP83]

For old time's sake I'd like to point out that the Heat are garbage. Lowry's eating up a lot of their cap I understand but they really have nothing going for them. People have been slobbing their knob since that bubble run - they are trash. They are not "dangerous" and never have been.

I'd gladly switch Billy with Spo though.

[MikeDC]

PatBev is BD’s coach on the floor.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=8Svv_-MwN33dX52-Z2fvEw

Pat has had two M-Bev-P games that have been huge but on the whole I think Lavine’s play is massively more important to our more recent success. Given his age and history the Bulls can’t rest on him as a solution this summer.

But like Coby, I see a good role for him on this team if we stay in win now mode or try to rebuild. Though as a reserve in both scenarios. If he’s our answer at point next year then we didn’t really address the question.

We’re the second best team in the league with PatBev as our starting PG. Yes Lavine is playing better, but part of that is the PatBev effect of making sure Lavine gets the ball in the right places and situations. Given what I have seen so far, I am completely fine with bringing PatBev back as our starting PG. He’s exactly what we need in a PG.

I dunno about who should start, but shifting the "PG" work more onto the PatBev/Coby duo and away from Ayo/Caruso/Zach has turned what was a massive negative into a neutral to slight positive.

In other words, it's basically solved our biggest single problem area this year.

Our second biggest problem area all year is the lack of high-level defensive 4/5 sort of player who could complement either Vuc (as a big 4) or Pat (as a more defensive 5) or replace Vuc altogether. Ideally, we'd have two of those guys... we still have 0 of them.

[Stratmaster]

I really do believe Javonte coming back into the fold while the team is playing well will give them another solid tick up

I predict it will not help one iota or even hurt. DJJ isn’t even playing at all. Where is his role other than taking Pat’s minutes, which I realize a handful of you will celebrate like New Year’s? With the Bev/Caruso move Green returning forces more one dimensional redundancy and roster imbalance while further exacerbating our size issues. Which I realize is Mother’s Milk to the AKME/BD Bulls.

Well PW only plays a few minutes every 3rd or 4th game anyway, right?

What? He plays more than that?

Ok then. I only notice PW playing a few minutes every 3rd or 4th game.

If Green is healthy and not rusty I hope he takes a lot of PW's playing time. But he has been out a while. I don't expect he's going to come back razor sharp.

[jnrjr79]

PatBev is BD’s coach on the floor.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=8Svv_-MwN33dX52-Z2fvEw

Pat has had two M-Bev-P games that have been huge but on the whole I think Lavine’s play is massively more important to our more recent success. Given his age and history the Bulls can’t rest on him as a solution this summer.

But like Coby, I see a good role for him on this team if we stay in win now mode or try to rebuild. Though as a reserve in both scenarios. If he’s our answer at point next year then we didn’t really address the question.

IMO, you have to break up some of the Big 3 this offseason, and potentially in doing so, you can address the PG slot. But it does seem there is a very substantial chance that the best are going to be able to do is sign Pat Bev to a 2-year deal to ride out the Lonzo contract.

[BeatDaCavs420]

Tank supporters with the 3% chance of landing a 4th top pick are in shambles! lmao

[sco]

I still want Billy to go with the Bev, Zach, Demar, DJJ, Vuc starting unit.

[FriedRise]

The Pat Bev effect (cont'd):

- It's been a minute since we had a PG who can heat up and shoot like he did. Sometimes the shots aren't falling, but on a night like last night where he obviously was on fire, he put up TEN 3s and shot 50% for 17 points. We still need to shoot more 3s as a team, but we at least could now think about using it as a weapon with Bev on the floor compared to someone like AC, Ayo, or PWill who never will put up more than 3-4 attempts on a good night.

- We won comfortably last night with Zach only taking 12 shots (but 7 assists and only 1 turnover!) and Vooch with only 8 shots (he probably should've had more given he kept getting matched up with their guards) because Bev got it going. It helps making the offense less predictable

- Speaking of shooting 3s, DeMar has been letting it fly too lately. Like, he could've and would've taken a step inside to shoot those long 2s, but he's now just shooting the 3 when open. 4 3PAs is a lot for DeMar, and he's taken as many as 6 like in that SAC game. Just not used to it. Is this another Pat Bev effect?

- Some of y'all probably don't care for this, but I have highly enjoyed the little taunts that he does. The "too small" gesture he does when he scored on Gobert and some Heat player last night was just too funny. And of course when he hits a big 3 and gets the crowd going. This team of sleepwalking choir boys needs more players who can trash talk and wake guys up, and his jolt of energy is obviously contagious. It makes for a really fun watch and can change the momentum of the game

- I wish he wasn't almost turning 35. He gives us like 70-80% production that Lonzo gives us as a 3&D guard, but he's just a great fit with this Big 3 where he doesn't necessarily need the ball all the time or put up a lot of shots, but he can help orchestrate the offense a bit so guys are in a better position to score. And obviously, he's a pretty solid defender who can cover a lot of ground. I can see the FO bringing him back on a team friendly deal

[DuckIII]

Tank supporters with the 3% chance of landing a 4th top pick are in shambles! lmao

Did any tank supporters actually believe the Bulls were going to tank though? Pretty sure most or all of those folks gave up once the trade deadline passed.

The mistake had already been made at that point, and tanking was no longer an option. I assume most of us still watching are rooting for wins at this point.

[DuckIII]

I still want Billy to go with the Bev, Zach, Demar, DJJ, Vuc starting unit.

Me too. Won’t happen. Billy knows something about DJJ, or thinks he does, that the rest of us evidently don’t see. He’s not really even in the rotation anymore.

It’s been a head scratcher for me all season.