Peak Arenas vs 2023 SGA

[rand]

Who would you take to start a team for a single season in 2023, peak Gilbert Arenas or 2023 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?

[1993Playoffs]

I lean towards SGA but I have to see him in the playoffs. Gil is clearly a better shooter But SGA seems like he’ll be more resilient but I gotta see it first.

[IdolW0rm]

Arenas was the better offensive weapon (and had a much higher scoring ceiling imo) but I'd rather start a team with Shai.

[Pelly24]

I feel like Peak Arenas would also reek havoc in today's league, and he was already doing that back then. To me he was alike a top 10 or 15 player, right where I have SGA now. So I'd have them about the same until SGA replicates this for another season

[OkcSinceSGA]

Arenas was the better offensive weapon (and had a much higher scoring ceiling imo) but I'd rather start a team with Shai.

I don’t think he’s a better offensive weapon necessarily. He peaked at 29 ppg on 58% TS and an ORTG of 115. SGA is at 31 ppg on 62% TS with a 125 ORTG. SGA is A LOT more efficient, even if he’s less aggressive in going for 50 point games. Both peak around 20 shots per game, but Arenas was far closer than SGA to going into “chucking” mode.

Can’t knock SGA for longevity in this particular comparison because Arenas did nothing significant in the playoffs and had a 2-3 year peak only.

[IdolW0rm]

Arenas was the better offensive weapon (and had a much higher scoring ceiling imo) but I'd rather start a team with Shai.

I don’t think he’s a better offensive weapon necessarily. He peaked at 29 ppg on 58% TS and an ORTG of 115. SGA is at 31 ppg on 62% TS with a 125 ORTG. SGA is A LOT more efficient, even if he’s less aggressive in going for 50 point games. Both peak around 20 shots per game, but Arenas was far closer than SGA to going into “chucking” mode.

Can’t knock SGA for longevity in this particular comparison because Arenas did nothing significant in the playoffs and had a 2-3 year peak only.

He sure isn't a lot more efficient than Arenas unless you're looking at it in absolute terms, which isn't the best path to follow IMO when comparing two completely different eras. The rules, offensive and defensive approaches changed a whole lot since 06. If anything, Arenas was actually a smidge more efficient relative to the league (+4.5 rTS to +4.4 rTS of Shai).
I also think Arenas was the better passer, and had a higher ceiling as a scorer.

Looking at individual ORTG (which is a poor metric in my eyes) to compare players from 2006 to players from 2023 is also a deeply flawed approach.
What are we supposed to infer from looking at their ORTG's? Shai's 2023 ORTG is higher than 2009 Lebrons (and I think higher than any Lebron year, for that matter). League average is now 115 ortg. Was 106 back in 2006.

Arenas led those Wizards to the 6th (2006) and 4th (2007,and that's with Washington being on a ~27th best offense level in the 9 games he missed) best offenses in the league for 2 years in a row with his best help coming from Jamison and Caron. The translation of his scoring prowess to effectively raising the floor of a team on offense to really good heights is out of question for me.
PI-ORAPM has him among the very elite during his short peak (+3.71 in 06 ; +4.29 in 07), just behind the very best of his era (Nash, Dirk, Kobe, Wade, Allen).

In the PO, we have just one series of peak Arenas we can look at, in 06 vs the Cavs, and his offense actually got better, both in volume and efficiency, while managing to reduce his TO's. He was simply outstanding there, though it's only a 6 game sample, but the little we have doesn't seem to point at his scoring skills being easily diluted in the postseason. We'll have to see about Shai's.
I guess one could argue 05 PS Arenas was very poor, but I think he took a massive leap in 06, thus I wouldn't regard 05 as part of his best version.

That being said, I'd still choose SGA because where I think Arenas has him, I think SGA has that on him times 10 on defense. Arenas was horrible, while SGA is very good.

[Eagle4]

Arenas was the better offensive weapon (and had a much higher scoring ceiling imo) but I'd rather start a team with Shai.

I don’t think he’s a better offensive weapon necessarily. He peaked at 29 ppg on 58% TS and an ORTG of 115. SGA is at 31 ppg on 62% TS with a 125 ORTG. SGA is A LOT more efficient, even if he’s less aggressive in going for 50 point games. Both peak around 20 shots per game, but Arenas was far closer than SGA to going into “chucking” mode.

Can’t knock SGA for longevity in this particular comparison because Arenas did nothing significant in the playoffs and had a 2-3 year peak only.

Eras matter when it comes to scoring as we're in a far more guard friendly league, not to mention less hulking centers guarding the rim to worry about now.
Arenas would average 35ppg in this current NBA.

[MiamiBulls]

Arenas was the better offensive weapon (and had a much higher scoring ceiling imo) but I'd rather start a team with Shai.

Both peak around 20 shots per game, but Arenas was far closer than SGA to going into “chucking” mode.

SGA eFG% is -1.2% Below the league average

Arenas eFG% was +1% above league average

Peak Arenas was essentially any random year of Prime Damian Lillard

[Colbinii]

I like the comparison. Both borderline Top 10 players at their peak, derive much of their value from a combination of volume scoring and efficiency while SGA has benefited significantly more-so from his offensively than Arenas ever did in his Peak years. I lean towards Arenas Offensively, but it is close enough that a strong playoff run by SGA can sway me.

Overall, even with a slight edge to Arenas offensively, the defensive side of the ball has SGA as a + and Arenas as a =/-.

[OkcSinceSGA]

That’s fair about adjusting to era, but even so the gap on their defense is way bigger than the one offensively. Also saying “Arenas would average 35” I doubt it. Even if he’s better in this comparison he’s not necessarily a Luka/Embiid/Giannis level scorer and those guys are around 32-33 ppg.

[Eagle4]

That’s fair about adjusting to era, but even so the gap on their defense is way bigger than the one offensively. Also saying “Arenas would average 35” I doubt it. Even if he’s better in this comparison he’s not necessarily a Luka/Embiid/Giannis level scorer and those guys are around 32-33 ppg.

Then you need to rewatch Hibachi, as a Wade stan I can tell you his offensive acumen was elite and was up there with the Lebron's, Kobe's Wade's of the world in 06. He was that good offensively. where his game lacked to be totally on their level was defensively.

People just look at stats and go off their memory which isn't always precise. I feel like highlights can trigger or remind people just how good and explosive some players were. For instance, recently saw a '10 Lebron reel and was reminded just how ridiculously explosive he once was.

Watch on YouTube

You can see it literally on the very first few plays, you couldn't keep him out the paint due to his first step and elite dribble penetration. Which made defenders want to give him cushion so he doesn't blow by them but it didn't matter because his jumper was very formidable AND he had range, basically the prototype of the Lillard's, Currys of the world (just less proficient). He was unstoppable then and would be even more ridiculous today. So yes if averaged just under 30 in 06 he would average around 35ppg in 2023.

[The-Power]

Arenas would average 35ppg in this current NBA.

He was ‘only’ 4th in PPG at his scoring peak, yet he'd be 1st – by some distance – today? Doesn't seem very likely to me.

[OkcSinceSGA]

That’s fair about adjusting to era, but even so the gap on their defense is way bigger than the one offensively. Also saying “Arenas would average 35” I doubt it. Even if he’s better in this comparison he’s not necessarily a Luka/Embiid/Giannis level scorer and those guys are around 32-33 ppg.

Then you need to rewatch Hibachi, as a Wade stan I can tell you his offensive acumen was elite and was up there with the Lebron's, Kobe's Wade's of the world in 06. He was that good offensively. where his game lacked to be totally on their level was defensively.

People just look at stats and go off their memory which isn't always precise. I feel like highlights can trigger or remind people just how good and explosive some players were. For instance, recently saw a '10 Lebron reel and was reminded just how ridiculously explosive he once was.

Watch on YouTube

You can see it literally on the very first few plays, you couldn't keep him out the paint due to his first step and elite dribble penetration. Which made defenders want to give him cushion so he doesn't blow by them but it didn't matter because his jumper was very formidable AND he had range, basically the prototype of the Lillard's, Currys of the world (just less proficient). He was unstoppable then and would be even more ridiculous today. So yes if averaged just under 30 in 06 he would average around 35ppg in 2023.

I remember his game and I’m not saying he wouldn’t be an elite scorer. But I don’t think he’s 2 ppg better than those guys today.

[Eagle4]

Arenas would average 35ppg in this current NBA.

He was ‘only’ 4th in PPG at his scoring peak, yet he'd be 1st – by some distance – today? Doesn't seem very likely to me.

What type of logic is that? The 3 that were above him THEN would also be better and score more today and would arguably be the best scorers individually today (Kobe, peak bron, Iverson).

[The-Power]

Arenas would average 35ppg in this current NBA.

He was ‘only’ 4th in PPG at his scoring peak, yet he'd be 1st – by some distance – today? Doesn't seem very likely to me.

What type of logic is that? The 3 that were above him THEN would also be better and score more today and would arguably be the best scorers individually today (Kobe, peak bron, Iverson).

That is just another assumption you make so that your initial projection can hold true. The idea that you have at least four scorers in 2006 who would all score more than the leading scorer today just isn't very realistic, especially not considering that the talent-level of players today is at an all-time high. But if we want to project, let's make it at least plausible and not only consider differences in efficiency and pace between 2006 and 2023 but also take away around 6 MPG from the players who played in 2006 and see what that does to their scoring averages.

[rand]

Arenas would average 35ppg in this current NBA.

He was ‘only’ 4th in PPG at his scoring peak, yet he'd be 1st – by some distance – today? Doesn't seem very likely to me.

What type of logic is that? The 3 that were above him THEN would also be better and score more today and would arguably be the best scorers individually today (Kobe, peak bron, Iverson).

2006 is not "peak bron"

Why weaken your argument with an indisputably false claim like that?

[Eagle4]

He was ‘only’ 4th in PPG at his scoring peak, yet he'd be 1st – by some distance – today? Doesn't seem very likely to me.

What type of logic is that? The 3 that were above him THEN would also be better and score more today and would arguably be the best scorers individually today (Kobe, peak bron, Iverson).

2006 is not "peak bron"

Why weaken your argument with an indisputably false claim like that?

Jesus Christ, meant peak Kobe, not Lebron. I'd say peak Bron was either '09,'13 or '18. Anything else you want to add in? 06 clearly wasn't peak Bron but he was a better slasher than now off purely being more athletic, quicker, and that year still had a respectable 3pt shot.

Weird when you're debating someone and then someone interjects with something to try and correct a typo or error without actually disputing the main point.

Edit: inb4 "b-b-but 06 isn't Kobe's peak!!". Eh it's debatable, it's either 03, 06 or 09.

[Eagle4]

He was ‘only’ 4th in PPG at his scoring peak, yet he'd be 1st – by some distance – today? Doesn't seem very likely to me.

What type of logic is that? The 3 that were above him THEN would also be better and score more today and would arguably be the best scorers individually today (Kobe, peak bron, Iverson).

That is just another assumption you make so that your initial projection can hold true. The idea that you have at least four scorers in 2006 who would all score more than the leading scorer today just isn't very realistic, especially not considering that the talent-level of players today is at an all-time high. But if we want to project, let's make it at least plausible and not only consider differences in efficiency and pace between 2006 and 2023 but also take away around 6 MPG from the players who played in 2006 and see what that does to their scoring averages.

Why wouldn't it be? It's as simple as if you believe Embiid, Giannis, SGA and Jokic are ALL better than the top 4 scorers in 06-07

How about you rank these players in terms of scoring and we go from there:

Giannis, younger Lebron, Doncic, SGA peak Kobe, Jokic, Embiid, Wade, Arenas, AI.

Honestly I can only say Giannis for 100. However, it's pretty subjective. What you're accusing me of doing is exactly what you're doing to counteract.

In regards to comparing pace, today's league averages a whopping 9 possessions more per game. In regards to MPG, yea let's penalize tougher players for not being coddled and pampered in this load management league. No. Once again we're in a perimeter friendly league, hence why Embiid figured he'd be more successful being a 7ft SG rather than the "normal" bruising center in the early to mid 00's.

[Eagle4]

That’s fair about adjusting to era, but even so the gap on their defense is way bigger than the one offensively. Also saying “Arenas would average 35” I doubt it. Even if he’s better in this comparison he’s not necessarily a Luka/Embiid/Giannis level scorer and those guys are around 32-33 ppg.

Then you need to rewatch Hibachi, as a Wade stan I can tell you his offensive acumen was elite and was up there with the Lebron's, Kobe's Wade's of the world in 06. He was that good offensively. where his game lacked to be totally on their level was defensively.

People just look at stats and go off their memory which isn't always precise. I feel like highlights can trigger or remind people just how good and explosive some players were. For instance, recently saw a '10 Lebron reel and was reminded just how ridiculously explosive he once was.

Watch on YouTube

You can see it literally on the very first few plays, you couldn't keep him out the paint due to his first step and elite dribble penetration. Which made defenders want to give him cushion so he doesn't blow by them but it didn't matter because his jumper was very formidable AND he had range, basically the prototype of the Lillard's, Currys of the world (just less proficient). He was unstoppable then and would be even more ridiculous today. So yes if averaged just under 30 in 06 he would average around 35ppg in 2023.

I remember his game and I’m not saying he wouldn’t be an elite scorer. But I don’t think he’s 2 ppg better than those guys today.

Meh agree to disagree. Arenas attempted 7 3pt FGA per game. In this league that number would likely be closer to 9-10, same with Kobe. The fact that gets ignored once again is that there is just far more spacing today than in 06.

The lane back then was regularly clogged harboring two hulking PFs/Cs. Arenas was one of the best at getting to the rim in that era, how exactly would his production not increase playing in a faster paced league, more guard friendly league, more spaced court to operate and the range to boot?