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Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

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Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1701 » by Rapsfan07 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 2:48 pm

BoyzNTheHood wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:The Raptors just won't draft a player that doesn't defend. Can't see it.

DBPMs > 2.5 for pretty much every Masai pick and current Raptor. This is like the litmus test of competitiveness. Anyone that gets buckets is going to have to have at least that marker or some serious injury excuse.

I don’t think a DBPM of 2.5 is much to ask either. Guys like Dick, Hendricks, Wallace, Filipowski, Lively, Podz, and Sasser are all around that.

And then if you filter it further to include only BPM’s at 8 or higher you’re down to Lively, Sasser, and Podz.


Jones and TJD also fit that > 2.5 DBPM criteria as well.
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Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1702 » by Rapsfan07 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 2:50 pm

alpngso wrote:
Read on Twitter


I thought Jalen Suggs was the next Jrue?

Jrue Holiday (Pac12, 6’3”)
BPM 6.7
TS 53.1
3Pt% 30.7
FT% 72.6
Ast% 23.8
TO% 23.4
Stl% 3.5
Blk% 2.1

Cason Wallace (SEC, 6’4”)
BPM 7.0
TS 54.3
3Pt% 34.6
FT% 75.6
Ast% 24.4
TO% 19.3
Stl% 3.7
Blk% 1.6


I've ran these numbers before as well and honestly, at this point, I think I want Wallace more than Hendricks now. I really think he's going to be a stud in the NBA.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1703 » by OakleyDokely » Tue Mar 21, 2023 2:54 pm

Davion Mitchell was also the next Jrue.

Jrue is a unique player. Hard to replicate. Not many smallish elite defenders in the league who are plus offensive players.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1704 » by YogurtProducer » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:06 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:Davion Mitchell was also the next Jrue.

Jrue is a unique player. Hard to replicate. Not many smallish elite defenders in the league who are plus offensive players.

I would not say Jrue is small. 6'3", 205, 6'7" wingspan
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1705 » by OakleyDokely » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:09 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:Davion Mitchell was also the next Jrue.

Jrue is a unique player. Hard to replicate. Not many smallish elite defenders in the league who are plus offensive players.

I would not say Jrue is small. 6'3", 205, 6'7" wingspan


Not small, but given where the NBA is headed, it's tougher to defend at that size given all the quality big guards/wings in the league currently, but Jrue makes it work because he's insanely strong, smart and skilled. Not many guys dominating at that size.
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Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1706 » by ATLTimekeeper » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:09 pm

BoyzNTheHood wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:The Raptors just won't draft a player that doesn't defend. Can't see it.

DBPMs > 2.5 for pretty much every Masai pick and current Raptor. This is like the litmus test of competitiveness. Anyone that gets buckets is going to have to have at least that marker or some serious injury excuse.

I don’t think a DBPM of 2.5 is much to ask either. Guys like Dick, Hendricks, Wallace, Filipowski, Lively, Podz, and Sasser are all around that.

And then if you filter it further to include only BPM’s at 8 or higher you’re down to Lively, Sasser, and Podz.


Yeah, in my previous searches if you're below in draft year DBPM 1.5 you are pretty much destined to be a weak defender in the NBA. The guys that really carve out long careers this low are overwhelmingly productive offensive players in their draft year.

But if I'm right about the Raptors these are all not on the table: Smith Jr, Sensabaugh, George, Howard, Murray, Hood-Schofino, Hawkins, Jackson, Lewis, Whitehead, Wilson, Strawther, Council.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1707 » by YogurtProducer » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:12 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:Davion Mitchell was also the next Jrue.

Jrue is a unique player. Hard to replicate. Not many smallish elite defenders in the league who are plus offensive players.

I would not say Jrue is small. 6'3", 205, 6'7" wingspan


Not small, but given where the NBA is headed, it's tougher to defend at that size given all the quality big guards/wings in the league currently, but Jrue makes it work because he's insanely strong, smart and skilled.

Oh do I wish we had Jrue on this team.

I remember when he was a Pelican discussing with them after our 2020 season some theoretical FVV + stuff trades to get him here and pair him with Lowry/Siakam. Lowry/Jrue/OG/Siakam/Gasol would be one of the best defensive teams ever.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1708 » by Indeed » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:18 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:Davion Mitchell was also the next Jrue.

Jrue is a unique player. Hard to replicate. Not many smallish elite defenders in the league who are plus offensive players.


Davion Mitchell comparison was a small Marcus Smart. The way they take charges are similar.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1709 » by OakleyDokely » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:26 pm

Indeed wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:Davion Mitchell was also the next Jrue.

Jrue is a unique player. Hard to replicate. Not many smallish elite defenders in the league who are plus offensive players.


Davion Mitchell comparison was a small Marcus Smart. The way they take charges are similar.


I remember reading a lot of smart and jrue comparisons.

Basically any guard between 6'2-6'4 who is built well and great defensively, who isn't an elite offensive player is compared to Jrue and Smart because those are the best case scenario's for these prospects.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1710 » by Rapsfan07 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:26 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:I would not say Jrue is small. 6'3", 205, 6'7" wingspan


Not small, but given where the NBA is headed, it's tougher to defend at that size given all the quality big guards/wings in the league currently, but Jrue makes it work because he's insanely strong, smart and skilled.

Oh do I wish we had Jrue on this team.

I remember when he was a Pelican discussing with them after our 2020 season some theoretical FVV + stuff trades to get him here and pair him with Lowry/Siakam. Lowry/Jrue/OG/Siakam/Gasol would be one of the best defensive teams ever.


Jrue has been one of my favourite players in the league. Just makes all the right plays, super strong and plays both sides of the ball very effectively. No significant weaknesses to his game.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1711 » by ItsDanger » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:46 pm

Rapsfan07 wrote:
HumbleRen wrote:KOC’s template for his mocks are beautiful and very pleasing to the eye. This actual analysis though ? Pretty terrible lol. He admits it on his podcast that he didn’t really do any thorough research on these prospects until like March. Any articles before that is just more so laymen levels of analysis.

The best people to listen to about the draft are generally on YouTube.

Adam Spinella, Hoop Intellect, Sam Vecenie, etc etc of the worlds.


These are my go to's. I like Adam Spinella and Hoop Intellect a lot.

These 2 have an extreme bias towards wing positions.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1712 » by ItsDanger » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:49 pm

Yallbecrazy wrote:
WuTang_OG wrote:GG Jackson needs to mature. Needs polish mentally and in his game. Kid should stay in school and come back in a soft draft year next yr.


It would be best for NBA teams for him to stay in school as well as him reaching his potential, but if he can con a team into drafting him in the top 20 then he should absolutely declare right now as another year of film and he could become an undrafted player hurting himself financially.

Smart GMs will take a serious look at him given his age. Would you take 18 yr old Brandon Miller? Because GG Jackson could be that level in a season or 2, but available in low 20s or wherever he's mocked currently. Tough decision.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1713 » by Duffman100 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:11 pm

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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1714 » by Rapsfan07 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:41 pm

Duffman100 wrote:


Fell asleep to this last night lol
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Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1715 » by Dalek » Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:53 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
BoyzNTheHood wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:The Raptors just won't draft a player that doesn't defend. Can't see it.

DBPMs > 2.5 for pretty much every Masai pick and current Raptor. This is like the litmus test of competitiveness. Anyone that gets buckets is going to have to have at least that marker or some serious injury excuse.

I don’t think a DBPM of 2.5 is much to ask either. Guys like Dick, Hendricks, Wallace, Filipowski, Lively, Podz, and Sasser are all around that.

And then if you filter it further to include only BPM’s at 8 or higher you’re down to Lively, Sasser, and Podz.


Yeah, in my previous searches if you're below in draft year DBPM 1.5 you are pretty much destined to be a weak defender in the NBA. The guys that really carve out long careers this low are overwhelmingly productive offensive players in their draft year.

But if I'm right about the Raptors these are all not on the table: Smith Jr, Sensabaugh, George, Howard, Murray, Hood-Schofino, Hawkins, Jackson, Lewis, Whitehead, Wilson, Strawther, Council.


College DBPM averages
Pascal Siakam 2.3
OG Anunoby 3.9
Fred VanVleet 4.6
Scottie Barnes 3.6
Gary Trent Jr. 2.6
Norman Powell 2.6 (3.2 in his final year)
Banton 2.4 (3 in his final year at Nebraska)
David Johnson 2.5
Malachi Flynn 1.1 (4.1 in his one season at SDSU)

I think it is pretty fair to say DBPM is a good indicator of draft worthiness for Toronto. All of these 2023 draft prospects are 6'4 combo type guards who are 19 years-old and could be considered POA defenders.

Prospect A
7.8 BPM
4.2 DBPM
45 FG%
35 3P%
52 EFG
54 TS%

Prospect B
5 BPM
3.4 DBPM
49 FG%
37 3P%
53 EFG
55 TS%

Prospect C
6.7 BPM
3.3 DBPM
48 FG%
36 3P%
54 EFG
58 TS%

Spoiler:
Prospect A Cason Wallace

Prospect B Amari Bailey

Prospect C Kobe Bufkin
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Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1716 » by ArthurVandelay » Tue Mar 21, 2023 5:14 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:The Raptors just won't draft a player that doesn't defend. Can't see it.

DBPMs > 2.5 for pretty much every Masai pick and current Raptor. This is like the litmus test of competitiveness. Anyone that gets buckets is going to have to have at least that marker or some serious injury excuse.


I’ve quit looking at players below 2 DBPM because very rarely do Raptors draft anyone less than 3.

Also one day I was bored and looked back the last decade for All-stars. Very few have a DBPM less than 2.5 in college.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1717 » by WuTang_CMB » Tue Mar 21, 2023 5:25 pm

ItsDanger wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:
WuTang_OG wrote:GG Jackson needs to mature. Needs polish mentally and in his game. Kid should stay in school and come back in a soft draft year next yr.


It would be best for NBA teams for him to stay in school as well as him reaching his potential, but if he can con a team into drafting him in the top 20 then he should absolutely declare right now as another year of film and he could become an undrafted player hurting himself financially.

Smart GMs will take a serious look at him given his age. Would you take 18 yr old Brandon Miller? Because GG Jackson could be that level in a season or 2, but available in low 20s or wherever he's mocked currently. Tough decision.


Along with defensive metrics, we put a high rate on mental acuity / IQ. GG showed some lack of maturity this past season. But he's also 18. That's one guy you should interview if Raps are sitting 15th.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1718 » by ItsDanger » Tue Mar 21, 2023 5:29 pm

WuTang_OG wrote:
ItsDanger wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:
It would be best for NBA teams for him to stay in school as well as him reaching his potential, but if he can con a team into drafting him in the top 20 then he should absolutely declare right now as another year of film and he could become an undrafted player hurting himself financially.

Smart GMs will take a serious look at him given his age. Would you take 18 yr old Brandon Miller? Because GG Jackson could be that level in a season or 2, but available in low 20s or wherever he's mocked currently. Tough decision.


Along with defensive metrics, we put a high rate on mental acuity / IQ. GG showed some lack of maturity this past season. But he's also 18. That's one guy you should interview if Raps are sitting 15th.

I need something more serious from a bad on court situation. I was still in high school at his age when that happened. Tend to skip over these kind of things because its so hard to evaluate on the outside.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1719 » by DreamTeam09 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:04 pm

Rapsfan07 wrote:
Duffman100 wrote:


Fell asleep to this last night lol


word I did too, I leave my youtube on at night and this was the last thing I remember.

He had Taylor Hendricks going right before us. We took JHS, I don't know much about other than he said he's a big guard who can get to his spots and likes the pull-up mid range jumper.
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Re: Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II 

Post#1720 » by Ell Curry » Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:28 pm

REJECTEDBYCLARK wrote:
Ell Curry wrote:
dozo wrote:
The trade proposal is good a couple tweaks and I can see both teams accepting the trade. I agree no risk no reward. History has shown that Ujiri is reluctant (Giannis, Shai) to make draft day trades. Its clear as day that the guard depth/play is holding this team back. C.Wallace would be a great addition.


I agree, but I think people are being overly optimistic in assuming any of Wallace, Dick or Black fall to us in the draft. I just don't see it.


In no order I can think of Wembanyama, Henderson, Miller, Thompson, Thompson, Walker, Black, Hendricks, Wallace, Whitmore.

Those are 10 who I am confident are all going before 15. They have the measurables that usually warrant such high picks and I don't think there are any major red flags that would cause multiple teams to pass on a given player causing them to fall to us but you never know. Dick is likely going before 15 and Keyonte George too although between them it's more likely Keyonte slips through the cracks. Juwan might sell some team on Jett before 15 which would be beneficial to us.

The more I think about it the more I feel like Masai pulls a player out of his rear end based on the majority of current draft projections and we end up with Kobe Bufkin.


Yeah, I'm nowhere near as familiar with Hendricks as the others, but if we include him then you've got 11 names I doubt we see (your 10 + Dick, as he can shoot and contribute a bit in other ways and that's enough with good wing size), and then it's anyone's guess.

George, Smith Jr, Rupert, Hood-Schiffino, Jett, Kris Murray, Sensabaugh, Max Lewis and Whitehead is Vecenie's next group.

Pure guess at this point, but I'd go with George and Whitehead as the likeliest, and we have a big debate about Nick Smith Jr vs the higher floor, lower ceiling prospects around him.
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