Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[Thaddy]

Hendricks 8th lol. By the time draft comes, might even go top 10.

8th is Top 10.

Ya think. Im saying he’s climbing in mocks now. Highest iv seen.

You're looking at a stretch big that can also shoot the ball at a high level. He might end up being a poor man's Boucher at worst. I would consider trading up for him if there's a worthwhile deal. I don't see much of a difference between him and Miller. Hendricks comes without character concerns, protects the rim, and could potentially be a Rob Williams for us. He's easily a guy that we should go after, I could see him being the next Isaac.

[God Squad]

This emotional roller-coaster sucks as a fan. I went from
- hating the fact we were punting our draft odds
- Liking the prospects in our range, and having Purtle = win- win

Now I'm not a fan of the prospects in our range due to us winning, and the guys we need (Wallace/Hendricks) are steadily moving up. IMO ATM we're in a the rough spot of the draft. Where guys in the 20+ are going to out produce draft stock. I'd probably entertain a trade back scenario if CW/TH are off board.

[God Squad]

8th is Top 10.

Ya think. Im saying he’s climbing in mocks now. Highest iv seen.

You're looking at a stretch big that can also shoot the ball at a high level. He might end up being a poor man's Boucher at worst. I would consider trading up for him if there's a worthwhile deal. I don't see much of a difference between him and Miller. Hendricks comes without character concerns, protects the rim, and could potentially be a Rob Williams for us. He's easily a guy that we should go after, I could see him being the next Isaac.

Funnily Issac is exactly who he reminds me off. Maybe less polish defensively, but more polished offensively.

[WuTang_CMB]

Ya think. Im saying he’s climbing in mocks now. Highest iv seen.

You're looking at a stretch big that can also shoot the ball at a high level. He might end up being a poor man's Boucher at worst. I would consider trading up for him if there's a worthwhile deal. I don't see much of a difference between him and Miller. Hendricks comes without character concerns, protects the rim, and could potentially be a Rob Williams for us. He's easily a guy that we should go after, I could see him being the next Isaac.

Funnily Issac is exactly who he reminds me off. Maybe less polish defensively, but more polished offensively.

I see Isaac too. It's too bad all the injuries he had, he should have been a decent rotation player in the NBA at least. Hendricks is already shooting a great clip from 3 and has solid D. Teams want those players. And his height and length play into his favour. I see a low bust potential for him. Also everyones horny stat of DPM - he's at 2.5 and 8 in BPM

[Thaddy]

Hendricks has a low bust potential but his ceiling is limited too. I don't see him being an all star. Swinging for the fences rarely works out, but I would take a hard look at Rupert in workouts to see where he is skill wise. He has better tools than most in this draft class.

[ArthurVandelay]

You're looking at a stretch big that can also shoot the ball at a high level. He might end up being a poor man's Boucher at worst. I would consider trading up for him if there's a worthwhile deal. I don't see much of a difference between him and Miller. Hendricks comes without character concerns, protects the rim, and could potentially be a Rob Williams for us. He's easily a guy that we should go after, I could see him being the next Isaac.

Funnily Issac is exactly who he reminds me off. Maybe less polish defensively, but more polished offensively.

I see Isaac too. It's too bad all the injuries he had, he should have been a decent rotation player in the NBA at least. Hendricks is already shooting a great clip from 3 and has solid D. Teams want those players. And his height and length play into his favour. I see a low bust potential for him. Also everyones horny stat of DPM - he's at 2.5 and 8 in BPM

lol - horny stat

I like it because it weeds so many guys out. You might miss the odd player but for the most part it is a great indicator of future success. I wish I could find it for international players and G-League.

[ATLTimekeeper]

The 2.5 DBPM thing was just an observation that the Raptors hadn't gone below it. You can consider David Johnson, but he was above 3 in his first year and was dealing with injuries in his draft year. Plus we're not exactly talking about the late 2nd round here. There's been a lot of really good to great NBA players below 2.5 DBPM. But, if you're thinking about drafting someone with all-star potential you have to look north of 8 BPM to have a realistic shot (which is still unrealistic after pick #5, imo). If you like someone with a draft year DBPM under 1.5, cool, but they will almost certainly not be "taught or convinced" to play defense in the NBA and their best bet at being an impact offensive player in the NBA is if they are an overwhelmingly impactful offensive player in the NCAA (think Dame/Ja/Trae).

[OakleyDokely]

Still way too early to put players in concrete tiers. Every year we see players rise and fall after workouts / measurements. There isn't much separating most guys between 4-20 right now.

[Indeed]

This emotional roller-coaster sucks as a fan. I went from
- hating the fact we were punting our draft odds
- Liking the prospects in our range, and having Purtle = win- win

Now I'm not a fan of the prospects in our range due to us winning, and the guys we need (Wallace/Hendricks) are steadily moving up. IMO ATM we're in a the rough spot of the draft. Where guys in the 20+ are going to out produce draft stock. I'd probably entertain a trade back scenario if CW/TH are off board.

Every draft we feel the pick above is better.
Even looking back at the 2021 draft, we were hoping Mobley as well. At the end, our development may make a difference, so drafting high potential (even raw) maybe a benefit to us.

[Rapsfan07]

Still lots of time for guys to make moves up and down based on workouts etc, but one can start to sniff out a list of realistic draft prospects that fit what we are looking for. Which is some combination of advanced stats and size/length at relative position. I would suspect that a pg/combo guard is our preference unless someone is a clear level above the competition.

Likely draft range 10-18. My guess. 14-15th pick

Top end of range. Wallace, Dick, Hendricks, Black, Whitmore.
Bottom end of range. Jordan Hawkins, Whitehead, Colby Jones, Sasser

Criteria for this list was a minimum of a 1.8 DBPM. The lowest we've drafted was David Johnson and we signed Wieskamp who also was a 1.9. I do think we are going to have a shooting emphasis but very few draft picks with a DBPM under 2 become anything special. Although last year had 3 lottery picks in Ivey, Mathurin and Jalen Williams were 1.9 or under that look like good choices.

Guys who don't fit our profile but might get drafted because they can score...
Smith Jr. Jett Howard Brice Sensabaugh Keyonte George.

Obviously I haven't included any g-league or international players.

I would imagine Mathurin, Williams & Ivey are exceptions to the rule. Also interesting to note that 4.7 is the lowest OBPM of that bunch.

Ideally I'd want to draft Wallace but if we have to take someone in the Smith Jr tier (10-15), I think I'd trade down with Brooklyn and take Bufkin and Jones. I am not high on Smith, Sensabaugh, Howard or George. So IMO, if we're going to take a chance with a scoring prospect, I'd rather have Bufkin over any of these guys; plus Jones, plus whatever else we might get, depending on where our pick actually lands.

But I have the Top 10 going as follows:

Wembanyama
Henderson
Miller
Amen
Walker
Whitmore/Ausar
Ausar/Whitmore
Wallace/Black/Hendricks
Hendricks/Black/Wallace
Black/Hendricks/Wallace

I see a similar top ten shaping out. It would leave us with Smith Jr., Dick, George, Howard, JHS, and Rupert as the best group without looking further.

I would probably go with the guy with the most potential of that group, which to me is Rupert by far. He has a Mikhal Bridges build, can shoot, plays aggressive POA defense, and he has guard skills from previously playing the point.

I have a feeling someone in the top 10 will like Dick, George, or Smith Jr more than most. If he sneaks into the top 10 we should go with whoever drops and has the most potential.

I could see us using our pick and Achiuwa to move up and take Hendricks. We badly need a shooting big man to space the floor for Siakam and he can protect the rim at a high level as well. Shooting 3pt shots with decent volume and being able to protect the rim is a valuable skill in the NBA.

I do agree that someone in the Top 10 could fall in love with Dick; not sure about the other two. But the more, the merrier because that would mean that one of the other guys would be falling in our laps and I can't be mad at that.

As far as moving up goes, I don't see Precious + our pick getting us more than one or two spaces up at best. If I can grab Wallace while doing that, sure. For Hendricks?? I'm a little less willing... for a couple reasons.

1. I haven't fallen out of love with Hendricks. I like him a lot and if he's on the table, I think we should take him. BUT we just traded a future first and this year's second for a big to pair with Siakam. I'm not going to worry about surrounding Siakam with this pick here. Adding Hendricks to this roster will really only serve to complicate an already existing problem. We have Siakam, Boucher, Precious & OG who all play that PF/C spot, not to mention Barnes (whose natural position I believe is PF as well). Now we're going to add Hendricks? Even if you move Precious AND in a potential deal, we'd still have 3 guys that need significant minutes there, not including Hendricks.

2. If the above is true, then you have to ask yourself - do you see Hendricks becoming better than any of these guys? Right now, he's closest in skillset to Boucher. He's a better shooter at the college level (NBA shooting remains to be seen) but he's an okay rebounder, good defender, pretty good shot blocker. But there isn't much diversity to his game. He's dunking or he's shooting the 3. He's not a particularly good playmaker, not much of a midrange shooter, doesn't put the ball on the floor or pressure the rim at all.

So I like him and I'd take him if he's available but I think I have Wallace just a tad higher than him at this point.

I'm not sure how to feel about Rupert. I think he has the chance to be a decent player in the league but we need guys who can score, both now and in the future.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Another number that I find relevant is p/40 (for scoring potential only). In the top 100 scorers, p/40 is overwhelmingly over 17 points, like 90% over. So odds against Black, Jarace Walker, Cason Wallace, Bufkin, Whitehead, Lively, Clowney really 'breaking out' into relevant scorers in the NBA.

[Rapsfan07]

This emotional roller-coaster sucks as a fan. I went from
- hating the fact we were punting our draft odds
- Liking the prospects in our range, and having Purtle = win- win

Now I'm not a fan of the prospects in our range due to us winning, and the guys we need (Wallace/Hendricks) are steadily moving up. IMO ATM we're in a the rough spot of the draft. Where guys in the 20+ are going to out produce draft stock. I'd probably entertain a trade back scenario if CW/TH are off board.

Yep, I've been saying this quite a bit.

The long and short of it is if we don't move into the Top 4 due to the lottery and we can't stay in the Top 10 due to our poor record, then I think the best course of action would be to move back.

Mind you, I think there is still a lot of rising and falling of prospects left to happen... March Madness, workouts, combine and the lottery itself so things are far from over. I really do think there's going to be some massive changes, especially in that middle section of the draft by the time things are all said and done.

Guys like Hood-Schifino, Sensabaugh, GG Jackson, Filipowski I could see taking a tumble. I think Clowney, TDJ, Bufkin, Coulibaly and Podz are all more deserving of a FRP.

Also off topic, but I think I'm warming on Leonard Miller, which is something I never thought I'd say.

[grant101]

This emotional roller-coaster sucks as a fan. I went from
- hating the fact we were punting our draft odds
- Liking the prospects in our range, and having Purtle = win- win

Now I'm not a fan of the prospects in our range due to us winning, and the guys we need (Wallace/Hendricks) are steadily moving up. IMO ATM we're in a the rough spot of the draft. Where guys in the 20+ are going to out produce draft stock. I'd probably entertain a trade back scenario if CW/TH are off board.

With the exception of a few next level role players I'm confident about (e.g. Sasser, DeRon Holmes, Adem Bona, Jordan Hawkins, Jalen Wilson, etc.) I'd say we're out of "surefire NBA contributor and likely starter" range. That said, there are still a few really intriguing, potentially ceiling-raising propsects likely to be available (Coulibaly, Bufkin, Whitehead). If there's confidence that one or more of these players might be available later in the draft, then yeah - a trade back scenario might make sense

[Rapsfan07]

Another number that I find relevant is p/40 (for scoring potential only). In the top 100 scorers, p/40 is overwhelmingly over 17 points, like 90% over. So odds against Black, Jarace Walker, Cason Wallace, Bufkin, Whitehead, Lively, Clowney really 'breaking out' into relevant scorers in the NBA.

I'm not sure how much stock I want to put into this. It's an interesting stat for sure, no doubt about it.

Like Wallace for example. Wallace is putting up 14.6 p/40. Nothing crazy. But if you're getting elite tier defense out of him, is that a non-relevant player? No, I don't think so.

I'd also bet on Bufkin. If we even get Jordan Poole type of production out of him, I'd say that's a steal anywhere outside of the Top 10 in most drafts.

[ItsDanger]

Your offensive role in college varies a lot depending on conference, team, coach, teammates. I wouldn't use p/40. You got to look at his role on the team in context with the other player's roles.

[Yallbecrazy]

my boy Dean with a big board that goes completely against consensus:
https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/sweet-16-big-board

[ItsDanger]

my boy Dean with a big board that goes completely against consensus:
https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/sweet-16-big-board

While I enjoy different opinions, this is a little too different. Lively at #6? LOL

[ATLTimekeeper]

Another number that I find relevant is p/40 (for scoring potential only). In the top 100 scorers, p/40 is overwhelmingly over 17 points, like 90% over. So odds against Black, Jarace Walker, Cason Wallace, Bufkin, Whitehead, Lively, Clowney really 'breaking out' into relevant scorers in the NBA.

I'm not sure how much stock I want to put into this. It's an interesting stat for sure, no doubt about it.

Like Wallace for example. Wallace is putting up 14.6 p/40. Nothing crazy. But if you're getting elite tier defense out of him, is that a non-relevant player? No, I don't think so.

I'd also bet on Bufkin. If we even get Jordan Poole type of production out of him, I'd say that's a steal anywhere outside of the Top 10 in most drafts.

'Relevant scorer' is what I said, so this has nothing to do with the quality of player overall. Plenty of really impactful players that aren't in the top 100 scorers in the NBA. I would bet against comps like Poole (also had a really low p/40 in his draft year), because those are exceptions. Those aren't good bets.

[WuTang_CMB]

Read on Twitter

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[Rapsfan07]

Another number that I find relevant is p/40 (for scoring potential only). In the top 100 scorers, p/40 is overwhelmingly over 17 points, like 90% over. So odds against Black, Jarace Walker, Cason Wallace, Bufkin, Whitehead, Lively, Clowney really 'breaking out' into relevant scorers in the NBA.

I'm not sure how much stock I want to put into this. It's an interesting stat for sure, no doubt about it.

Like Wallace for example. Wallace is putting up 14.6 p/40. Nothing crazy. But if you're getting elite tier defense out of him, is that a non-relevant player? No, I don't think so.

I'd also bet on Bufkin. If we even get Jordan Poole type of production out of him, I'd say that's a steal anywhere outside of the Top 10 in most drafts.

'Relevant scorer' is what I said, so this has nothing to do with the quality of player overall. Plenty of really impactful players that aren't in the top 100 scorers in the NBA. I would bet against comps like Poole (also had a really low p/40 in his draft year), because those are exceptions. Those aren't good bets.

Well, we have to make a bet somewhere.