Post#24 » by gom » Wed Mar 22, 2023 3:23 pm
One misconception is that tanking teams are not trying to win at this time of the season. I have a more nuanced opinion, because the choices that have placed them in this predicament are complicated and most have already been made. Individual players and coaches may have their own reasons to show up, especially future $$$ motivations.
Because of how the lottery works, Detroit, Houston, and San Antonio have equal chances for any top-4 pick, 52.1%, and for the #1 pick, 14.0%. Only Charlotte threatens their place, 3.5 games behind San Antonio. With 9 games to play, it’s hard for San Antonio to lose its place. There is a 7 game difference between Charlottte and the next worse team, Orlando, 30-43. Even if Charlotte does not move, they sttill have a 48.1% chance for top-4 and 12.5% chance for #1. Collectively, though, their places are assured. They don’t have to try to lose, and some have warmed up to winning. 4 of San Antonio’s total of 19 wins have been in the last 10 games, and 5 of Houston’s 18. The pressure is off.
Orlando, Portland, Washington, and Indiana occupy the middle tier of tankers. All of these teams own their pick (or have their pick locked in the case of PDX and DC). The chances for top-4 pick vary froom 29% (at 8) to 42% (at 5). #1 pick: (10.5% to 6.7%). And they are very close, all within 2.5 games. I agree that in their cases, tanking decisions are still meaningful. In fact, Dame Lillard was just shut down by Portland. Portland and Washington are 2-8 in theiir last 10 games, compared to Houston (5-5) and San Antonio (4-6). Orlando, where Banchero is making a case for ROY was 4-6. Indiana, which is generally an anti-tanking team, are 5-5. For these teams, much also depends on where the game is played. They are almost 0.500 teams at home, while their road records are far poorer. Indiana, for example, is 19-17 at home, 13-23 on the road. The NBA is a business and playing for home town fans matters.
The next group are teams that don’t own their picks: Chicago, Lakers, Pelicans, Wolves, and the Mavericks (who are only a half game ahead of Utah & Minnesota). None of these teams are tanking. They are fighting for a place in the postseason. Their motivation is to not give Orlando, Pelicans, Lakers (yes, they are swapping), the Jazz, and Knicks respectively, a lottery pick or (“fire the gm”) a chance at Victor Wembanyama, the 19 year-old, 7’5” Metropolitans star.
Additionally, Utah, Toronto, and OKC are playing spoiler roles, and may make it into the postseason (after poor seasons) by the playin backdoor, threatening established teams like Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Brooklyn, and Golden State, who have been trying to win all along. OKC is especially motivated.
So, I judge the difficulty of each match by comparing the stakes and the past performance of the team (home and away).
Also, Boston beat the Kings last night. They really don't want to play us.
I remember 11-30 with these guys. ^
