Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[ATLTimekeeper]

None of these guys really pass though. Whitmore, Hendricks, GG Jackson, Dick, Jett, Walker, Smith, Murray etc all have low assist totals as well.

That's a skill that often has to be developed unless the player comes up as a ballhandling guard.

For me, it's really about whether you can get him to an acceptable level defensively.

Hendricks, Walker and Dick will play defense and can contribute offensive off the ball, so they have solid starter potential. If you're a hub on offense and you don't defend or pass, you will be a frustrating starter (John Collins) or a bench player. That's the destiny. Murray is a bench player, too. When you're that bad on defense, it will translate to the NBA. You won't be talked into committing.

I've already said my piece about GG, Jett and Smith.

I guess it depends on your expectations, but if you can get a 6th man type scorer in the mid 1st, I think that's good value. Then you try to develop other parts of his game.

Your still waiting for that 6th man level to develop as well as developing the other parts. I'd look for scoring upside with defense/off ball utility. That player can stay on the floor and doesn't mess up what's already there.

[Dalek]

Brice Sensabaugh as a starter (21 games):

27.1 MIN, 17.8 PPG, 5.7 REB, 1.4 AST, .498 FG, .408 3PT, .811 FT, .593 TS%

Sensabaugh isn't discussed a lot, but he has impressive numbers. As others point out his defense at 230 lbs will be a question. Cam Whitmore who is similar in size uses it better on the defensive end, but Brice is a much more dynamic scorer.

One question I come to is will he be better than Ron Harper Jr. Both are sort of undersized PFs who can cook offensively. While Brice is only a freshman, it is still interesting to see how close they track:

Ron Harper Jr. senior season at Rutgers:
34 MIN, 15.8, 5.9, 1.9 AST, .444, .398 3PT, .795 FT, .570 TS%
BPM 5.8
DPM 1.2

Sensabaugh
BPM 7.6
DPM 0.2

Whitmore
BPM 5.2
DPM 2

I am not sold he is that much better than Harper Jr., and even if he is, RHJ has barely played for Toronto and was undrafted. Kind of a tough sell for me to draft Sensabaugh in the first when we don't know if he fits long-term.

Thing is, when RHJ was a freshman, he put 7 PPG on shooting splits of 41/27/68

That is fair. Harper Jr. was an evolution. I think my point is that we have invested in Harper Jr. with a two-way and he has proven highly productive in G-League. While Brice Sensabaugh is offensively elite as a freshman, does he have another tier to climb? Can he become more athletic to be an even better player than RHJ? They just seem on the surface a bit similar enough to make me hesitate on drafting him.

I generally worry about 230 lbs plus forwards. Unless they are OG/Lebron types they could end up really doughy and slow on a NBA court. You can get away with a heavier player, but usually they can pass at a high clip and do other things to stand out. Look at how Jarace Walker is considered a top ten pick despite worse numbers than Brice. It is mainly because Jarace defensive motor, and he can pass along with the high level finishing ability.

[WuTang_CMB]

Sensabaugh hard pass. Defensive metrics aren't there. I watched a few Ohio games and he not only is a poor defender, other teams hunt him down. Not sure why we would draft a prospect like that at 15.

[WuTang_CMB]

jrue wallace

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[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

This is a draft I can see Masai going way off the board (especially if he's drafting for long term upside) and people reacting with WTF.

Kobe Bufkin seems like that kind of pick. He finished the season red hot for Michigan, seems like a character kid, made such a massive leap from year 1 to year 2 and is young for a sophomore. He had the highest finishing accuracy at the rim of any guard projected to be drafted (raps desperately need a guy with this kind of ability), has shown defensive chops and seems to have untapped ability still yet to have surfaced. Pretty good size for a guy who you would envision running the point and is a lefty.

I'd be curious to know what Bufkin's OBPM and DBPM were dating back to when he really surfaced in January. If he continues and improves upon the way he has played since then you are looking at potentially an under the radar steal.

The .546 2 point % for a young sophomore guard playing in the big ten is eye opening. Jalen Pickett shot the same rate this year, which is saying something.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

BTW Bufkin is younger than Jett Howard even though Howard is a freshman and Bufkin is a sophomore. His overall advanced stats are much better than Howard's and your eyes can tell you that without having to look.

[OakleyDokely]

This is a draft I can see Masai going way off the board (especially if he's drafting for long term upside) and people reacting with WTF.

Kobe Bufkin seems like that kind of pick. He finished the season red hot for Michigan, seems like a character kid, made such a massive leap from year 1 to year 2 and is young for a sophomore. He had the highest finishing accuracy at the rim of any guard projected to be drafted (raps desperately need a guy with this kind of ability), has shown defensive chops and seems to have untapped ability still yet to have surfaced. Pretty good size for a guy who you would envision running the point and is a lefty.

I'd be curious to know what Bufkin's OBPM and DBPM were dating back to when he really surfaced in January. If he continues and improves upon the way he has played since then you are looking at potentially an under the radar steal.

The .546 2 point % for a young sophomore guard playing in the big ten is eye opening. Jalen Pickett shot the same rate this year, which is saying something.

Over his last 25 games, he averaged 15PPG in 35MIN with shooting splits of 51/40/84 and a TS% of 61. Also had 3 assists and 2 stocks.

[Rapsfan07]

BTW Bufkin is younger than Jett Howard even though Howard is a freshman and Bufkin is a sophomore. His overall advanced stats are much better than Howard's and your eyes can tell you that without having to look.

Yep. Been singing in his praises for a bit. Guy has everything I'd be looking for in an sixth man/spot starter type of role in the NBA.

I think by the time it's all said and done, he will be in the 15-20 range. But if not, I would love to take the chance on him with a later first.

And yes, I think he's a better prospect than Howard as well.

[ATLTimekeeper]

This is a draft I can see Masai going way off the board (especially if he's drafting for long term upside) and people reacting with WTF.

Kobe Bufkin seems like that kind of pick. He finished the season red hot for Michigan, seems like a character kid, made such a massive leap from year 1 to year 2 and is young for a sophomore. He had the highest finishing accuracy at the rim of any guard projected to be drafted (raps desperately need a guy with this kind of ability), has shown defensive chops and seems to have untapped ability still yet to have surfaced. Pretty good size for a guy who you would envision running the point and is a lefty.

I'd be curious to know what Bufkin's OBPM and DBPM were dating back to when he really surfaced in January. If he continues and improves upon the way he has played since then you are looking at potentially an under the radar steal.

The .546 2 point % for a young sophomore guard playing in the big ten is eye opening. Jalen Pickett shot the same rate this year, which is saying something.

Over his last 25 games, he averaged 15PPG in 35MIN with shooting splits of 51/40/84 and a TS% of 61. Also had 3 assists and 2 stocks.

I'm not seeing how he is a point guard. He's also weak shooting the ball from 2 (.389 FAR 2s) and doesn't get to the line. There's not a lot of success stories with the latter 2 factors.

[OakleyDokely]

Kobe Bufkin seems like that kind of pick. He finished the season red hot for Michigan, seems like a character kid, made such a massive leap from year 1 to year 2 and is young for a sophomore. He had the highest finishing accuracy at the rim of any guard projected to be drafted (raps desperately need a guy with this kind of ability), has shown defensive chops and seems to have untapped ability still yet to have surfaced. Pretty good size for a guy who you would envision running the point and is a lefty.

I'd be curious to know what Bufkin's OBPM and DBPM were dating back to when he really surfaced in January. If he continues and improves upon the way he has played since then you are looking at potentially an under the radar steal.

The .546 2 point % for a young sophomore guard playing in the big ten is eye opening. Jalen Pickett shot the same rate this year, which is saying something.

Over his last 25 games, he averaged 15PPG in 35MIN with shooting splits of 51/40/84 and a TS% of 61. Also had 3 assists and 2 stocks.

I'm not seeing how he is a point guard. He's also weak shooting the ball from 2 (.389 FAR 2s) and doesn't get to the line. There's not a lot of success stories with the latter 2 factors.

ya not a PG, he's more in the mold of a guy like Poole or Clarkson.

[dozo]

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*Rupert is only avg 18mpg, which makes it difficult for a player to find their shooting rhythm.

[Dalek]

After getting cooked by Andrew Nembhard it reminded me that his brother Ryan Nembhard is a draft prospect and still in the tournament. Only 20, and he played at Monteverde Academy with Scottie and Caleb Houstan. He has a similar quirky game as Andrew and this year averaged 12/4/5:

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[ArthurVandelay]

This is a draft I can see Masai going way off the board (especially if he's drafting for long term upside) and people reacting with WTF.

Coulibably.

He's a homerun swing.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I don't like Ryan Nembhard at all, don't see any kind of NBA future there in the least bit.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Sensabaugh hard pass. Defensive metrics aren't there. I watched a few Ohio games and he not only is a poor defender, other teams hunt him down. Not sure why we would draft a prospect like that at 15.

I think he ends up going in the 2nd round.

[dozo]

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[BoyzNTheHood]

This is a draft I can see Masai going way off the board (especially if he's drafting for long term upside) and people reacting with WTF.

Ousmane N'Diaye from Senegal might fit that mold. He’s still pretty raw, but at 6’11” with a fluid handle he could have tons of untapped potential.

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/.amp/prospect-profiles/nba-draft-scouting-report-senegals-ousmane-ndiaye

Or perhaps Mouhamed Gueye of Washington State. Another 6’11” guy from Senegal, but he’s much more of a big than N’Diaye. His numbers aren’t eye popping at 14/8 but he can stretch it out a bit and also post up. With time he might be able to turn himself into a decent stretch 5.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4712863/mouhamed-gueye

[Rapsfan07]

Sensabaugh hard pass. Defensive metrics aren't there. I watched a few Ohio games and he not only is a poor defender, other teams hunt him down. Not sure why we would draft a prospect like that at 15.

I think he ends up going in the 2nd round.

Honestly, I don't know but I don't think he's going where everyone is mocking him (top 15). I think he's a later first round pick at best.

[dozo]

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I dont know if it was posted. He declared for the draft yesterday.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Musselman is 48-10 when he has 4+ days to prepare for a team. I'm really scared for Uconn.