Most Overrated Player in the Top 10

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Most "overrated" in the top 10, with these assumptions on consensus opinion

1-MJ-the #1 GOAT
45
10%
2-LBJ-at worst, the #2 GOAT
81
19%
3-KAJ-clear top 3 guy, and could easily be the GOAT
7
2%
4-Russell-GOAT candidate, top 5 guy
107
25%
5-Wilt-GOAT candidate, top 5 guy
42
10%
6-Duncan-top 5, JUST outside the GOAT argument
41
10%
7-Shaq-top 3 peak ever, to 6 all time
20
5%
8-Magic-top offensive player ever, top 5 guy
22
5%
9-Bird-clear top 10 guy
24
6%
10-Hakeem-clear top 10 guy
41
10%
 
Total votes: 430

OhayoKD
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#141 » by OhayoKD » Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:21 pm

I see you chose to duck not 1, not 2, not 3, but every point I've made...whatever, I'll bite
MavsDirk41 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
MavsDirk41 wrote:
I can post a bunch of stuff

Post or don't post. There is no "can". Don't tag me if all you got is a bluff



Ok ill play. Since you made this Jordan vs James lets go:

Offense: Jordan won 10 scoring titles and has the highest scoring average points per game in the regular season and postseason. He could attack the basket, post up, mid range game all day, and he was an 85% free throw shooter. Only weakness was he was never a great 3pt shooter but he never needed it. He was a more dynamic, consistent, and better offensive player than James.

Sadly, offense isn't only scoring. Even early on, Lebron was a much better passer and at 24 we see Lebron matching 90/91 Jordan's efficiency/scoring/turnover economy in the playoffs(while creating much more) despite being the primary ball-handler(Jordan was a secondary ball-handler post-triangle), being the primary orchestrator(Pippen told people where to go for the triangle), and facing significantly more defensive attention(Deferring to Pippen/Illegal d led to Jordan being doubled very little and fairly late). Mind you, that was an improvement on a 66-win worthy base in 2009(in similar circumstances Jordan's bulls topped out at 50).

Lebron led a +5 offense at the age of 20(full-strength) after joining a 17-win team, losing his best teammate, and playing without 3-point specialists(in a league where that was a bigger disadvantage). "More dynamic/consistent" offensive player MJ was stuck at +1 until the triangle allowed him to switch from failing to do everything Lebron can(there's more to offense than ppg/scoring titles), to succeeding in a significantly more limited role(secondary ball-handler, not the orchestrator, co-creator).

By his second Cleveland stint, Lebron had become good to very good at all these scoring weaknesses while also upgrading his passing and decision making. The end result was a player whose production/efficiency was barely affected by opposing defensive quality(he actually put up his best numbers vs the league's best defense), who could adjust and counter opposing schemes like no one else ever:
Image

Lebron and Jordan are rated as comparable offensive players by box-aggregates. Notable because box-aggregates have no way of differentiating between the quality of a created look
Overall, Kobe’s rate of “good” passes in my sample was around 3 per 100. For comparison, Jordan was at 2 per 100 and an all-timer like Nash over 8 per 100.8

As a result of his increased primacy and evolved court vision, LeBron’s creation rates jumped from about 11 per 100 to a whopping 14 per 100, just short of the highest rates ever estimated. In my sampling, his quality passes leapt into the upper stratosphere, reaching Nash-like frequencies with a “good” pass on 8 percent of his possessions.

or accounting for the value of being able to verbally direct an offense...
Heej wrote:Highly reminiscent of what Phil wrote in Eleven Rings about Scottie being the quarterback and middle linebacker for offense and defense, being the guy who bore mental load of running the offense and getting people in their spots on defense and directing people. This allowed MJ to singularly focus on getting buckets as well as following his own defensive plan alongside the common Jordan steal improvisations. When you play, it can't be overstated how draining and constricting it is to be the guy responsible for rhe majority of the communication on the floor for one end, let alone both ends.

Which is what makes LeBron so incredible because he's been the control tower on offense and defense for damn near his entire career. We've had coaches and teammates describe him as a coach on the floor. There was an article during the 2018 Finals I remember where JR Smith said LeBron's communication on the floor legitimately makes everyone one step faster on defense. And this is something he doesn't get nearly enough credit for. But this is a big deal to people who are actually in the game and around the game, because one of the major talking points about the Lakers acquiring Rondo for LeBron was about how helpful it would be for LeBron to have someone else think the game for him and organize sets and get guys to their spots.

While this doesn't show up in box, it does, to a degree, show up when we look at how the presence of both players affect the teams around them. Even when he's less capable than usual at physically bolstering an offense(2015), his "intangibles" make a massive difference:
Unibrodavis wrote:My recollection was the 2020 Lakers had a top 5 offense pre bubble, I feel using the bubble is fine since the Lakers were the one who lost home court

2015/2016/2017/2018 lebron pretty obviously reigned it in during the regular season, 2015 bron obv had injury issues but I their offense was 1st in the games he played, it just was worst in the league level while he was hurt iirc, just checking through.

The playoff offense in 2015 was solid but it’s brought down by the Warriors series, it would have been first otherwise, and it’s hard to knock them for having a poor offense with a team that probably would be the worst offensive team ever without him.

2016 and 2017 they had the best playoff offense ever, 2018 obviously that’s a 20 win roster that went to the finals. My recollection is over the 30 or so games bron missed in his Cleveland tenure they were a bottom tier offensive team, even in the 20 Kyrie or love played, of course the bulls were league average ish

Even in an off-year(bad back, broken jumper) Lebron was more valuable than Jordan offensively, and maintained that value even at a massive spacing disadvantage. It's not because Lebron is limited(by his second stint in Cleveland, Lebron was a very good shooter and an excellent off-ball player), it isn't because Lebron isn't portable(Lebron has achieved more impressive results than Mike with and without strong shooting), and it isn't because Lebron can't lift a ceiling(Lebron's best 5 year playoff offenses are actually better than Mike's).

It's because Lebron is better at basketball. His "assists" are on average more valuable, and he doesn't need a second superstar to run his offense. That doesn't mean he "can't" fit with other stars or a system(Lebron+Wade lineups were comparable to Jordan+Pippen despite a weaker supporting cast, much higher skill-overlap, and Wade literally getting his knees operated over and over again), but it does mean Lebron doesn't need nearly as much to compete or win(The 13 Spurs and the 2016 Cavs were better than anyone MJ triumphed over). And then we get to defense and uhhh...
Defense: Jordan won a DPOY award

Sure...when the DPOY only went to non-bigs:
AEnigma wrote:Mark Eaton was the only big to win Defensive Player of the Year during the award’s first nine years. :blank:

But we know now(by tracking the best defenses in history, or looking at how much players improve defenses), that bigger players are more valuable defensively. Even when they don't get as many steals or blocks. This is because the most valuable part of defense is paint-protection, and Lebron(like Pippen) can function as primary paint-protectors on good/elite defenses. Moreover, the blocks/steals smaller players get are usually a byproduct of a bigger player's presence:
ceiling raiser wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:(1) Even if steals are overrated in box-based defensive measurements (e.g. if the box stats miss the fact that the steals come expense of unnecessary gambling, as they may for Jordan), steals are still individually the most valuable defensive play someone can make.

So a couple notes here.
(1) You are combining the defensive value of a steal with the offensive value generated. On the defensive side alone, steals aren't nearly as valuable as plays at the rim. Additionally, just like blocks, "steals" from a non-big often are a byproduct of a bigger player's influence...
https://youtu.be/p5aNUS762wM?t=1165
Here, Jordan is able to get a steal because Oakley stonewalls the attacker and occupies his attention. Yet as far as these box-models are concerned, all the credit here belongs to MJ. Notably, it was Oakley's arrival that saw the Bulls become a -2 defense in 1988(the only good defense Jordan has ever anchored), and it was with Oakley's depature that the Bulls fell back to mediocrity(Oakley also helped the knicks see a big overall improvement with New York slanting to offense). Charles did not rack up enough steals or blocks for stuff like "RAPTOR' to love him, but I'd argue on plays like these, its Oakley who deserves most of the credit, not steal-getter MJ.

Ultimately though, the proof is in the pudding, or in this case, the winning. Lebron, at 30 and 31 was having a bigger defensive impact in the regular season(cavs went from bad to solid with him, becoming top 10 post-sabbatical) before we get to the playoffs where he anchored multiple defenses on the level of the Pippen-anchored Bulls:
Sansterre wrote:Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +11.43 (4th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -3.82 (68th)
Playoff SRS: +14.55 (8th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +5.84 (5th)
Shooting Advantage: +3.1%, Possession Advantage: +2.7 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +3.42 (16th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.33 (43rd)


More-over, those defenses were resilient, getting even better against top 5 offenses:
Boston Celtics: +7.1 / -3.0
Chicago Bulls: +8.0 / -1.6
Atlanta Hawks: +10.9 / -9.1
Golden State Warriors: -1.7 / -4.3

Detroit Pistons: +14.9 / +4.4
Atlanta Hawks: +21.5 / +4.0
Toronto Raptors: +13.3 / -8.8
Golden State Warriors: +5.3 / -6.0


When we adjust for lineups, Lebron looks outright better than 2x DPOY Kawhi Leonard:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=103591642#p103591642
Looking more granularly, even 31 year old Lebron looks comparable in the regular season:
Spoiler:
homecourtloss wrote:
The more and more I look at it, Lebron’s 2016 defensive season looks to be one the best ever for a #1 scoring option who’s not a center and one of the best wing defensive years regardless.

1. First of all, I know there has to be other seasons in which a player was in the top 40%-50% of each of the defensive play types but I have’t seen one other than LeBron. I haven’t looked extensively, but have looked at 2019 PG13, Giannis, Kawhi, Siakam, KD (not that I thought he was a DPOY type defensive force [he’s improved greatly] but for comparisons to LeBron and his supposed horrid defense), 2018 RoCo and Roberson, 2016 Kawhi, Draymond, and LeBron.

LeBron, 2016 was not only top 50% in everything but at worst was top 27% in post up defense. Yes, there may not be many possessions in certain play types so there’s less meaning there, but every other player falls short somewhere.

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 3% in defending hand offs
Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 7% in defending in ISO
Top 27% in post up defense
Top 13% in spot up defense

Compare these numbers with these:

Kawhi, 2016—DPOY on a GOATy defensive team and maybe co-#1 option with LMA

Top 10% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 22% in defending hand offs
Top 2% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 31% in defending off of screens
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 29% in post up defense
Top 25% in spot up defense

Draymond, 2016—2nd in DPOY voting on a GOAT team and not the #1 option on offense

Top 29% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 43% in defending hand offs
Top 25% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 2% in defending off of screens
Top 15% in defending in ISO
Top 11% in post up defense
Top 34% in spot up defense

PG132019 considered a DPOY candidate and co-#1 option with Westbrook

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 23% in defending hand offs
Bottom 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 27% in defending off of screens
Top 13% in defending in ISO
Top 5% in post up defense
Top 19% in spot up defense

ISO defense

LeBron: .59 points per possession (PPP), 93rd percentile
Draymond: .68, 85th percentile
Kawhi: .69 PPP, 83rd percentile

Pick and roll ball handler

Kawhi: .65 PPP, 90th percentile
LeBron: .66 PPP, 88th percentile
Draymond: .88, 71st percentile

Pick and roll roll man

Kawhi: .50 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .70 PPP, 84th percentile
Draymond: .77 PPP, 75th percentile

Post defense

Draymond: .65 PPP, 89th percentile
LeBron: .77 PPP, 73rd percentile
Kawhi: .77 PPP, 71st percentile (numbers are rounded so James might have been at .772 and Kawhi at .768 or something)

Spot up defense

LeBron: .80 PPP, 87th percentile
Kawhi: .88 PPP, 75th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 66th percentile

Off screens defense

Draymond: .45 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .74PPP, 85th percentile
Kawhi: 1.05 PPP, 31st percentile

Hand offs defense

LeBron: .49 97th percentile
Kawhi: .72 PPP, 78th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 43rd percentile

No data available for transition defense, defense on cuts, and defense on offensive rebound out backs. In his thirteenth season playing on a team that's otherwise not that good defensively, James quietly out together a great, great defensive season because he had to since his team really had maybe three other plus defenders. Unlike Kawhi and Draymond who were subpar in some categories, James was at worst in the 73rd percentile.

The argument, “well, LeBron didn’t match up against the opposition’s best scorers doesn’t really hold water because look at the overall FG% of Dray’s, Kawhi’s, and LeBron’s opposition.

Players Draymond defended: 45.5%
Players Kawhi defended: 44.8%
Players LeBron defunded: 44.7%

Regular season

Draymond Green:

Overall: 39.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.5%, -6.1%
Threes: 29.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -5.1%
Twos: 42.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.2%, -6.3%
<6ft: 51.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -8.7%

Kawhi

Overall: 39.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.8%, -5.6%
Threes: 33.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.9, -1.2%
Twos: 41.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 48.8%, -7.2%
<6ft: 53.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.5%, -7.0%

LeBron:

Overall: 37.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.7%, -7.3%
Threes: 32.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -2.6%
Twos: 40.8 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.0%, -8.2%
<6ft: 48.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.9%, -11.3%

Though you addressed the playoffs, LeBron’s defense alone in those playoffs/Finals are noteworthy because it indicates peak possible defense. Combine that with his offense and it’s the greatest of all time Finals performance.

Sideshow had an RPM estimate of +8 to +9 on offense and +5 to +6 on defense. That’s a +15 player and that’s bonkers. It’s like one of the crazy “How good would Magic Pippen” or “How good would Hakeem Curry” creations come to life.

LeBron’s defense In the playoffs was ridiculous:

Overall: 31.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.9%, -14.0%
Threes: 24.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 36.7%, -12. 6%
Twos: 36.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 50.5%, -13.9%
<6ft: 37.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 61.3%, -23.5%

LeBron In the finals was utterly ridiculous:

Overall: 31.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.9%, -16.3%
Threes: 29.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 39.6%, -10.6%
Twos: 33.3 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 53.6%, -20.3%
<6ft: 38.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 63.6%, -25.1%

LeBron In the finals’ last three games was I don’t know what:

Overall: 19.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.4, -28.4%
Threes: 12.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 40.7%, -28.2%
Twos: 25 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.4%, -27.4%
<6ft: 15.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -45.2

This was game 5 defense https://stats.nba.com/player/2544/defense-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=06%2F13%2F2016&DateFrom=06%2F13%2F2016&PORound=4

This was game 6 defense https://stats.nba.com/player/2544/defense-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=06%2F16%2F2016&DateFrom=06%2F16%2F2016&PORound=4

The Warriors shot 4 for 28 overall (3/17 in game 5, 1/11 in game 6) in those two games (14.3%) when going against LeBron and that doesn’t include his team defense, defensive rebounding, rotations, etc,

The Warriors shot 2/13 AT THE RIM against LeBron during the final three games. Had James not stopped those shots (everyone knows the blocked shot on Iggy), Warriors win.

The guy not only led them in scoring and creating offense for others, he led their perimeter defense AND was one of the best “rim protectors” in the 2016 NBA playoffs.

These were the best rim protectors in the 2016 NBA playoffs

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-lt6/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*3

NBA.com has stats going back to the 2014 playoffs. For players who who contested at least 3 shots per game at the rim and played at least 6 games in the playoffs, LeBron is tied with Duncan with the best single season rim protection that we have on record. He did that WHILE being 31, not at his athletic peak AND being tasked with creating his team’s offense.

These were the best defenders of three pointers in the 2016 playoffs (defended at least 3.8 threes per game, played at least 6 games)

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-3pt/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&CF=FG3A*GE*3.8:GP*GE*6

Lebron didn't stop giving "effort" defensively post-Miami. He simply prioritized paint-protection/help:
aEnigma wrote:Because everywhere else prefers to count accolades, glance at steal totals, and then give an extra bonus when they see some strong individual man defence. The latter is the main reason I think people act as if Lebron stopped trying after 2013: he went full help defender, which is less versatile and why his clear defensive peak is earlier, but that does not mean he stops being a lot more valuable to his teams than Jordan was.

Heej wrote:The posts about LeBron not having enough traditional defensive counting stats pointing to a lack of activity is exactly what's wrong with basketball discourse when discussing defense. Unless you've played organized ball or have taken the time to watch professional level coaching videos on defense, you're not going to appreciate the fact that the most important thing a help defender can be on defense is a "yellow light".
Someone who's able to plug up the gaps or is far enough over on the weakside to "help the helper" and allow the closer weakside defender to fill the gap, or something as simple as tagging a roll man to fly out to a shooter and cause a record scratch is faaaaar more valuable over time than a flashy chest to chest lockdown guy.

uberhikari wrote:The most valuable defensive possession is not a contest, it's when the opponent can't even shoot the ball or has to shoot the ball under awful conditions. A considerable portion of someone like Hakeem's defensive value is when opposing teams won't even attempt a shot because they know he'll be there.

LeBron is the best wing defender in NBA history at this type of defensive jiujitsu. And if he was a better man-to-man perimeter defender with better footwork and a lower offensive load he'd be the best wing defender of all time.

When LeBron studies and remembers your playbook, has the IQ and awarenesses to properly react to an offensive threat, and is either in a position to blow up the action or [b][u]communicate with his teammate so they can do it
that provides incredible defensive value.[/b][/u]

So maybe if there's some plus minus stats showing his impact on defense but you don't think it's valid because your eye test tells you he's not active enough; there's a very good possibility that your eye test or weighting of the importance of certain actions (that don't necessarily show up in the box score or in other statistical compilations) is actually not in line with what matters in reality or what truly compounds defensively in the long run.

Even if, for whatever reason, you don't care that 09-17 Lebron looks like maybe the best non-big since Pippen(by any approach rooted in winning rather than box-stuffing), or that wings and bigs have consistently outvalue guards defensively, or that paint-protection, help, and communication are the skills that correlate best with defensive influence historically(Bill Rusell's Celtics maybe being the ultimate example)... Lebron still won more DPOY votes over his 5-year peak(at least per DPOY voting), finished top 5 five years in a row, and finished second twice to all-time bigs, after everyone realized bigs are the most valuable defenders. Recent guard DPOY Marcus Smart has never exhibited the influence 30+ Marc Gasol did in Toronto(average before, all-time-great with, average after). As has no guard in the last 50 years.

Jordan won DPOY on a defense that was significantly worse than the 09 Cavs(Lebron's best help being a half-season of 24 mpg Ben Wallace), and worse than the 2010 Cavs(That best help was now gone). That defense collapsed in the playoffs, and then returned to average when the Bulls lost their best front-court presence, right where they were before they even drafted Mike. It wasn't Jordan's ascension that saw the Bulls defense become elite(film-tracking and on/off actually suggest Jordan's a decline from 88/89 through the first three-peat), but Pippen's. And then they stayed elite when Jordan left to play baseball.

Even if we hone in on man-d, Jordan was not impervious, getting worked by Magic in 91, and then getting torched by Drexler in 92:
CapFan33 wrote:Colts18 did some tracking of Jordan's defense during the 92 finals against Clyde Drexler, and Drexler shot better against MJ than he did against everyone else by a decent margin. He shot 41% overall, but against Jordan specifically shot 44% while he shot 38% against everyone else.

Man-coverage is Lebron's alleged weakness here. But when Lebron, at his defensive apex, wasn't tasked with being the primary rim deterrent(giving him freedom to roam), the results were nothing short of incredible:
Colts18 wrote:Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6
3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS% :o :o :o

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)


+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

Peak Lebron was a very good man-defender which, paired with big advantages in more valuable defensive attributes(rim-deterrence, help, and orchestration), makes a comparison between the two pretty one-sided unless we...
blindly rely on nostalgic reputation and questionable award selections (or in the case of all-defensive selections, obviously different positional value and competition) to make all our assessments.


If you're going to favor hype over reality, at least understand how award-voting works. All-defensive teams are done positionally. Jordan competes against guards. Lebron competes against forwards. That Jordan was on a few more all-defensive teams vying against vastly worse defenders isn't really a win.

Leadership: Jordan maybe was an ass of a teammate sometimes but he stayed with the Bulls his entire career minus his two years with the Wizards when he was old. You could count on the guy to show up as he played the full 82 games i think 9 times in his career ( its late and im too lazy to look it up but i think its 9).

Whether it's better to share the wealth or stay "loyal" isn't relevant to whose the better leader. And I'm not sure why you're bring up "showing up" for a player who played significantly less minutes over the same period of time:
70sfan wrote:We can go a bit further and calculate average minutes played per year throughout their primes:

1985-98 Jordan: 35887 minutes in 13 seasons - 2760 minutes per season

2004-18 James: 44298 minutes in 15 seasons - 2953 minutes per season

Lebron helped his teams get better players therefore improving their chances to win. Those teammates may not like it, but tampering for an all-time talent like Davis is about as big of an off-court win a franchise can ask for. And let's not gloss over that Wizards stint:
Was he really? On the court he might have been more valuable but if the reports of his destroying the #1 pick in the whole draft Kwame Brown's confidence and getting the team to trade Rip Hamilton for a washed Jerry Stackhouse, I think he was actually a negative for the franchise. He set back the rebuild seriously and didn't push the team successfully anywhere. The front office liked him because he pushed ticket sales but as a fan, I strongly wished he had never decided to come back.

https://thesportsrush.com/nba-news-michael-jordan-used-flaming-fagot-as-reference-for-kwame-brown-his-whipping-boy-according-to-si-and-washington-post/
https://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/04/sports/pro-basketball-jordan-s-strained-ties-to-wizards-may-be-cut.html
According to one official, Hughes was explicitly told by Jordan to get him the ball if he wanted to play. When Hughes began passing it to Stackhouse as much as to Jordan, he was soon benched. Point guard Tyronn Lue, the official said, obliged and began finding Jordan every time he played. ''He was scared to death of what would happen to him in his career if he didn't,'' the player said of Lue. ''He was always looking at the bench at Michael.''

Late last fall, Richard Hamilton and Jordan got into an ugly shouting match. The two officials said it began when Hamilton told Jordan he was tired of being a ''Jordannaire,'' the term used for Jordan's role players in Chicago. ''Rip was a young, brash guy who threatened the idea of Michael being the guy here,'' the official said. ''He was promptly gotten rid of for Stackhouse.'' A person close to Jordan denied Hamilton was traded because of a personality conflict. He insisted contractual issues led to the Stackhouse deal.

In the season's final weeks, players openly complained about the double standards for Jordan. Promptly dressed and ready to speak with reporters after games, they were forced to wait in the locker room for 15 or 20 minutes while Jordan showered and dressed in a private room.

Jordan's "leadership" probably did more damage to the Wizards than anything Lebron has done, and it doesn't seem Jordan was much different in Chicago.
“I hate when I have to read that in the papers the next day, that I couldn’t do something. It wasn’t my fault.”

“They’re not interested in winning. They just want to sell tickets, which they can do because of me. They won’t make any deals to make us better. And this Kukoc thing. I hate that. They’re spending all their time chasing this guy.”

“I don’t know about trading a 24 year-old guy for a 34 year-old guy.” – Michael questioning the Oakley trade

He was very mad when the Bulls fired...Doug Collins, who let Jordan skip practices and try and be Lebron(with significantly less winning). He was upset when the Bulls made good moves to help him win rings, and blamed his teammates when they weren't winning(which lines up with him complaining that all his teammates were coke-heads in the last-dance).

The Bulls ultimately won with Jordan being forced to let other people make decisions, and then when he finally got his chance to do things the way he wanted, he basically set-back a franchise with the same "leadership" we saw him flashing before Phil came to Chicago.

Lebron has his own marks(trading for westbrook, taking an extra year to buy into spo's, is jr really worth 100 mill?), but ultimately, when Lebron tells blatt he doesn't need his system, he goes and beats a 73-win team using "lebron-ball"(meant to denote when lebron does alot at the same time because lebron is good enough at alot to do alot at the same time, not the meme-stereotype people apply to all of Lebron's teams). When he forces a trade for AD(duh) it's a move ultimately aimed at winning and which generally leads to winning. If you want to act like one franchise hoarding the glory is morally superior to 3 franchises getting a share, fine. But as far as winning goes, Lebron's "leadership" is clear.

Klutch: give me Jordan over James all day for the last shot of the game. Make or miss the guy is not afraid to take the shot. Last time i saw James with the ball in his hands with the clock running down in a tied game, he drove to the basket and instead of taking thd shot or getting fouled he passed out to Carmelo for a 3.

Sadly, clutch is not just scoring and Lebron is better at nearly everything else, which is why...
2009 Cavaliers: +39.9
2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4
1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2
2004 Pacers: +23.4

Looking at Lebron individually:
Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)

3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.


Helio-playmakers like Nash, Lebron, and Magic see their teams improve a bit in the 4th quarter while the Bulls got a little worse. Clutch is not just hitting a higher percentage of your shots at the end. Nor is it just hitting buzzer-beaters(though Lebron now leads in that). It's also when you complete an extremely difficult pass to create ft's for an 80% shooter, and affect possession after possession on the other end.

Lebron has led two finalists(one champion) that never lost with a lead in the 4th(2018/2020), has won every series where the opponent's srs is within 2 point of his(keeping in mind that Lebron has consistently been more valuable in the regular season), and has a winning record as an, on average, massive underdog(again, more valuable regular season player):
f4p wrote:Fun fact, Lebron played 15 toss-up series where the teams were within 2 points of each other. He went 15-0.
...

Incredibly, Lebron was -4.2 as an underdog and still went 7-6, which means he was able to win more than half the time as the equivalent of an 11-12 win underdog.

Lebron is merely 14-2 as a favorite(Mike is 24-0), losing twice after leading 66 and 61 teams with a cast Jordan would struggle to hit 50 win with. The first of which came with Lebron hitting two last-second shots(1 win, 1 loss), going perfect in overtime(loss), to punctuate extremely efficient scoring and creation in the "klutch".

Jordan's big underdog triumph came in 1989, hitting a buzzer-beater shot to squeak by a hobbled 80's variant of the Lebronto Raptors. Maybe if we define "klutch" as winning with an overwhelming talent advantage, or putting up shots, Jordan has an argument, Otherwise, not really.
Jordan has also accomplished more in fewer years.

Only if you cherrypick what counts as "accomplishment". What makes putting up the most points more meaningful than a triple-double? But whatever, at least be consistent. Why are we counting Jordan's expansion era MVP's if we're discounting longevity?

We also really, really start cherrypicking when we get here:
Jordan also was never outplayed by one of his teammates in the finals, or played as poorly as James did in the 2011 finals.

Lebron lost a winnable final in an off-year. But he proceeded to be the best player on either team in the next 7, with 12, 14, 16, 17, 18, and 20 all stacking up to any of MJ's performances via box(and all of them being arguably or clearly ahead(12, 16) when we account for pesky details like defense(12, 13, 15, 16), cast(all of them but 12), coaching(14), running the offense(all of them), quality of creation(all of them), and opponent quality(all of them but 12 and 20).

2011 was still a better season than 1995(50+win help, crushed in 2nd round), which was sandwiched between Jordan being bailed out of an all-time choke in 1993, Jordan quitting in 1994, and Jordan being bailed out of the greatest choke ever in 96(and maybe they lose anyway if Payton is on Jordan from the start).

93-96 is quite easily the worst 4-year stretch in the primes of any of the conventional GOAT candidates, and Jordan's prime was by far the shortest. You can deflect with team success, but that will only get you so far, as even by rings(Kareem wins if we use finals as a tiebreaker, Duncan wins via general winning, Lebron wins with raw totals), he greatly trails Bill who, like Lebron, beat multiple teams, stronger than anyone MJ vanquished, with significantly less help(1969).

Beyond pretending a scoring title is inherently more meaningful than a triple double, or that non-predictive box-aggregates outweigh making teams better, it's quite hard to get Jordan at the top unless you discount what came before while simultaneously pretending basketball peaked in the 90's.
Finally the eye test. Im pretty sure between you and me, im the only one who has watched both careers. There is something to watching a guys career compared to looking up a players stats or watching a game on youtube.

And yet, my claims align with actual results, while yours align with very specific interpretations of slashlines and second-hand opinions.

But by all means, flex your "eye-test" and break out some film.

I'd especially love to see how "watching-the-game" got you to Jordan being a Lebron+ defender when actual film-tracking has his teammate making less mistakes, while being more active at the paint, more active on the perimeter, and more active trying to blitz the other team on the other end(though Grant may have been the MVP there).

Unless of course, "watching his career", was really just watching The Last Dance.

And hey, if you reply, maybe actually respond to at least some of what was argued. This pattern of ignoring what others say, repeating your beliefs(with little to no support), then complaining about "lebron fans" is starting to get old.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#142 » by og15 » Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:37 pm

NZB2323 wrote:
Ito wrote:Out that list prolly Magic he was jus an oversized PG, a player playing out of position Kuz he could pass..in this era he would b getting the Ben simmons treatment with ppl talking bout why he ain't shootin the ball more.. maybe Kuz he cant shoot :dontknow: obviously I'm exaggerating but if I had to pick one I would go with him


In 1990 Magic took 3.5 3s a game and made 38.4%. It’s no surprise he didn’t shoot a lot of 3s early on considering the first time he could shoot a 3 was when he played in the NBA, and as a pass first player he preferred to pass to players like Kareem and Worthy.

If Ben Simmons had Magic’s confidence and drive he’d be effective. He made the all-NBA 3rd team in 2020. Look at how effective Ben Simmons, Draymond Green, Rajon Rondo, Giannis, Lebron, Zion, Ja, Shai, and Jimmy Butler have been despite not being knockdown 3 point shooters.

If anything Magic would be better in today’s pace and space, position-less basketball. Teams might play him at center, and he wouldn’t have to cut his playing career short.

The player whose game would translate the worst to the modern era would be Bill Russell.

Even a loose comparison of Magic to Ben Simmons should be highly shamed and ridiculed.

Magic was also a career 85% FT shooter with a high of 91%. Simmons issue isn't simply not shooting three's.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#143 » by RUN T M C » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:25 pm

I dont think any of them are overrated. 1-10 is all a matter of opinion. All that you listed were/are all greats.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#144 » by Sark » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:25 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
Sark wrote:
70sFan wrote:Who has Duncan inside top 10 because of his scoring...?



Nobody, but that doesn't mean scoring isn't important.

Duncan being the most consistent winner since Russell would suggest it's not nearly as important as you think it is



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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#145 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:27 pm

It’s definitely gotta be Bird. Gets compared to LeBron and Jokic as a passer despite never getting an AST% over 30. Gets talked about as an all-time shooter with a career 3-point percentage lower than Jimmy Butler in the playoffs. Has a reputation as an all-time clutch guy when he only cracked a 22.0 PER in the playoffs twice in his career.

It seems like he’s mostly just a good player who benefited from being on good teams in a weak era. I can see a better argument that he should be ranked below James Harden than I can that he should be ranked ahead of Steph Curry.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#146 » by 70sFan » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:35 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:It’s definitely gotta be Bird. Gets compared to LeBron and Jokic as a passer despite never getting an AST% over 30. Gets talked about as an all-time shooter with a career 3-point percentage lower than Jimmy Butler in the playoffs. Has a reputation as an all-time clutch guy when he only cracked a 22.0 PER in the playoffs twice in his career.

It seems like he’s mostly just a good player who benefited from being on good teams in a weak era. I can see a better argument that he should be ranked below James Harden than I can that he should be ranked ahead of Steph Curry.

I don't have Bird in my top 10, but it's not surprising that you have him that low, considering that his impact was never about boxscore production.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#147 » by homecourtloss » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:40 pm

OhayoKD wrote:I see you chose to duck not 1, not 2, not 3, but every point I've made...whatever, I'll bite
MavsDirk41 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Post or don't post. There is no "can". Don't tag me if all you got is a bluff



Ok ill play. Since you made this Jordan vs James lets go:

Offense: Jordan won 10 scoring titles and has the highest scoring average points per game in the regular season and postseason. He could attack the basket, post up, mid range game all day, and he was an 85% free throw shooter. Only weakness was he was never a great 3pt shooter but he never needed it. He was a more dynamic, consistent, and better offensive player than James.

Sadly, offense isn't only scoring. Even early on, Lebron was a much better passer and at 24 we see Lebron matching 90/91 Jordan's efficiency/scoring/turnover economy in the playoffs(while creating much more) despite being the primary ball-handler(Jordan was a secondary ball-handler post-triangle), being the primary orchestrator(Pippen told people where to go for the triangle), and facing significantly more defensive attention(Deferring to Pippen/Illegal d led to Jordan being doubled very little and fairly late). Mind you, that was an improvement on a 66-win worthy base in 2009(in similar circumstances Jordan's bulls topped out at 50).

Lebron led a +5 offense at the age of 20(full-strength) after joining a 17-win team, losing his best teammate, and playing without 3-point specialists(in a league where that was a bigger disadvantage). "More dynamic/consistent" offensive player MJ was stuck at +1 until the triangle allowed him to switch from failing to do everything Lebron can(there's more to offense than ppg/scoring titles), to succeeding in a significantly more limited role(secondary ball-handler, not the orchestrator, co-creator).

By his second Cleveland stint, Lebron had become good to very good at all these scoring weaknesses while also upgrading his passing and decision making. The end result was a player whose production/efficiency was barely affected by opposing defensive quality(he actually put up his best numbers vs the league's best defense), who could adjust and counter opposing schemes like no one else ever:
Image

Lebron and Jordan are rated as comparable offensive players by box-aggregates. Notable because box-aggregates have no way of differentiating between the quality of a created look
Overall, Kobe’s rate of “good” passes in my sample was around 3 per 100. For comparison, Jordan was at 2 per 100 and an all-timer like Nash over 8 per 100.8

As a result of his increased primacy and evolved court vision, LeBron’s creation rates jumped from about 11 per 100 to a whopping 14 per 100, just short of the highest rates ever estimated. In my sampling, his quality passes leapt into the upper stratosphere, reaching Nash-like frequencies with a “good” pass on 8 percent of his possessions.

or accounting for the value of being able to verbally direct an offense...
Heej wrote:Highly reminiscent of what Phil wrote in Eleven Rings about Scottie being the quarterback and middle linebacker for offense and defense, being the guy who bore mental load of running the offense and getting people in their spots on defense and directing people. This allowed MJ to singularly focus on getting buckets as well as following his own defensive plan alongside the common Jordan steal improvisations. When you play, it can't be overstated how draining and constricting it is to be the guy responsible for rhe majority of the communication on the floor for one end, let alone both ends.

Which is what makes LeBron so incredible because he's been the control tower on offense and defense for damn near his entire career. We've had coaches and teammates describe him as a coach on the floor. There was an article during the 2018 Finals I remember where JR Smith said LeBron's communication on the floor legitimately makes everyone one step faster on defense. And this is something he doesn't get nearly enough credit for. But this is a big deal to people who are actually in the game and around the game, because one of the major talking points about the Lakers acquiring Rondo for LeBron was about how helpful it would be for LeBron to have someone else think the game for him and organize sets and get guys to their spots.

While this doesn't show up in box, it does, to a degree, show up when we look at how the presence of both players affect the teams around them. Even when he's less capable than usual at physically bolstering an offense(2015), his "intangibles" make a massive difference:
Unibrodavis wrote:My recollection was the 2020 Lakers had a top 5 offense pre bubble, I feel using the bubble is fine since the Lakers were the one who lost home court

2015/2016/2017/2018 lebron pretty obviously reigned it in during the regular season, 2015 bron obv had injury issues but I their offense was 1st in the games he played, it just was worst in the league level while he was hurt iirc, just checking through.

The playoff offense in 2015 was solid but it’s brought down by the Warriors series, it would have been first otherwise, and it’s hard to knock them for having a poor offense with a team that probably would be the worst offensive team ever without him.

2016 and 2017 they had the best playoff offense ever, 2018 obviously that’s a 20 win roster that went to the finals. My recollection is over the 30 or so games bron missed in his Cleveland tenure they were a bottom tier offensive team, even in the 20 Kyrie or love played, of course the bulls were league average ish

Even in an off-year(bad back, broken jumper) Lebron was more valuable than Jordan offensively, and maintained that value even at a massive spacing disadvantage. It's not because Lebron is limited(by his second stint in Cleveland, Lebron was a very good shooter and an excellent off-ball player), it isn't because Lebron isn't portable(Lebron has achieved more impressive results than Mike with and without strong shooting), and it isn't because Lebron can't lift a ceiling(Lebron's best 5 year playoff offenses are actually better than Mike's).

It's because Lebron is better at basketball. His "assists" are on average more valuable, and he doesn't need a second superstar to run his offense. That doesn't mean he "can't" fit with other stars or a system(Lebron+Wade lineups were comparable to Jordan+Pippen despite a weaker supporting cast, much higher skill-overlap, and Wade literally getting his knees operated over and over again), but it does mean Lebron doesn't need nearly as much to compete or win(The 13 Spurs and the 2016 Cavs were better than anyone MJ triumphed over). And then we get to defense and uhhh...
Defense: Jordan won a DPOY award

Sure...when the DPOY only went to non-bigs:
AEnigma wrote:Mark Eaton was the only big to win Defensive Player of the Year during the award’s first nine years. :blank:

But we know now(by tracking the best defenses in history, or looking at how much players improve defenses), that bigger players are more valuable defensively. Even when they don't get as many steals or blocks. This is because the most valuable part of defense is paint-protection, and Lebron(like Pippen) can function as primary paint-protectors on good/elite defenses. Moreover, the blocks/steals smaller players get are usually a byproduct of a bigger player's presence:
ceiling raiser wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:(1) Even if steals are overrated in box-based defensive measurements (e.g. if the box stats miss the fact that the steals come expense of unnecessary gambling, as they may for Jordan), steals are still individually the most valuable defensive play someone can make.

So a couple notes here.
(1) You are combining the defensive value of a steal with the offensive value generated. On the defensive side alone, steals aren't nearly as valuable as plays at the rim. Additionally, just like blocks, "steals" from a non-big often are a byproduct of a bigger player's influence...
https://youtu.be/p5aNUS762wM?t=1165
Here, Jordan is able to get a steal because Oakley stonewalls the attacker and occupies his attention. Yet as far as these box-models are concerned, all the credit here belongs to MJ. Notably, it was Oakley's arrival that saw the Bulls become a -2 defense in 1988(the only good defense Jordan has ever anchored), and it was with Oakley's depature that the Bulls fell back to mediocrity(Oakley also helped the knicks see a big overall improvement with New York slanting to offense). Charles did not rack up enough steals or blocks for stuff like "RAPTOR' to love him, but I'd argue on plays like these, its Oakley who deserves most of the credit, not steal-getter MJ.

Ultimately though, the proof is in the pudding, or in this case, the winning. Lebron, at 30 and 31 was having a bigger defensive impact in the regular season(cavs went from bad to solid with him, becoming top 10 post-sabbatical) before we get to the playoffs where he anchored multiple defenses on the level of the Pippen-anchored Bulls:
Sansterre wrote:Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +11.43 (4th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -3.82 (68th)
Playoff SRS: +14.55 (8th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +5.84 (5th)
Shooting Advantage: +3.1%, Possession Advantage: +2.7 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +3.42 (16th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.33 (43rd)


More-over, those defenses were resilient, getting even better against top 5 offenses:
Boston Celtics: +7.1 / -3.0
Chicago Bulls: +8.0 / -1.6
Atlanta Hawks: +10.9 / -9.1
Golden State Warriors: -1.7 / -4.3

Detroit Pistons: +14.9 / +4.4
Atlanta Hawks: +21.5 / +4.0
Toronto Raptors: +13.3 / -8.8
Golden State Warriors: +5.3 / -6.0


When we adjust for lineups, Lebron looks outright better than 2x DPOY Kawhi Leonard:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=103591642#p103591642
Looking more granularly, even 31 year old Lebron looks comparable in the regular season:
Spoiler:
homecourtloss wrote:
The more and more I look at it, Lebron’s 2016 defensive season looks to be one the best ever for a #1 scoring option who’s not a center and one of the best wing defensive years regardless.

1. First of all, I know there has to be other seasons in which a player was in the top 40%-50% of each of the defensive play types but I have’t seen one other than LeBron. I haven’t looked extensively, but have looked at 2019 PG13, Giannis, Kawhi, Siakam, KD (not that I thought he was a DPOY type defensive force [he’s improved greatly] but for comparisons to LeBron and his supposed horrid defense), 2018 RoCo and Roberson, 2016 Kawhi, Draymond, and LeBron.

LeBron, 2016 was not only top 50% in everything but at worst was top 27% in post up defense. Yes, there may not be many possessions in certain play types so there’s less meaning there, but every other player falls short somewhere.

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 3% in defending hand offs
Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 7% in defending in ISO
Top 27% in post up defense
Top 13% in spot up defense

Compare these numbers with these:

Kawhi, 2016—DPOY on a GOATy defensive team and maybe co-#1 option with LMA

Top 10% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 22% in defending hand offs
Top 2% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 31% in defending off of screens
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 29% in post up defense
Top 25% in spot up defense

Draymond, 2016—2nd in DPOY voting on a GOAT team and not the #1 option on offense

Top 29% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 43% in defending hand offs
Top 25% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 2% in defending off of screens
Top 15% in defending in ISO
Top 11% in post up defense
Top 34% in spot up defense

PG132019 considered a DPOY candidate and co-#1 option with Westbrook

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 23% in defending hand offs
Bottom 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 27% in defending off of screens
Top 13% in defending in ISO
Top 5% in post up defense
Top 19% in spot up defense

ISO defense

LeBron: .59 points per possession (PPP), 93rd percentile
Draymond: .68, 85th percentile
Kawhi: .69 PPP, 83rd percentile

Pick and roll ball handler

Kawhi: .65 PPP, 90th percentile
LeBron: .66 PPP, 88th percentile
Draymond: .88, 71st percentile

Pick and roll roll man

Kawhi: .50 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .70 PPP, 84th percentile
Draymond: .77 PPP, 75th percentile

Post defense

Draymond: .65 PPP, 89th percentile
LeBron: .77 PPP, 73rd percentile
Kawhi: .77 PPP, 71st percentile (numbers are rounded so James might have been at .772 and Kawhi at .768 or something)

Spot up defense

LeBron: .80 PPP, 87th percentile
Kawhi: .88 PPP, 75th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 66th percentile

Off screens defense

Draymond: .45 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .74PPP, 85th percentile
Kawhi: 1.05 PPP, 31st percentile

Hand offs defense

LeBron: .49 97th percentile
Kawhi: .72 PPP, 78th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 43rd percentile

No data available for transition defense, defense on cuts, and defense on offensive rebound out backs. In his thirteenth season playing on a team that's otherwise not that good defensively, James quietly out together a great, great defensive season because he had to since his team really had maybe three other plus defenders. Unlike Kawhi and Draymond who were subpar in some categories, James was at worst in the 73rd percentile.

The argument, “well, LeBron didn’t match up against the opposition’s best scorers doesn’t really hold water because look at the overall FG% of Dray’s, Kawhi’s, and LeBron’s opposition.

Players Draymond defended: 45.5%
Players Kawhi defended: 44.8%
Players LeBron defunded: 44.7%

Regular season

Draymond Green:

Overall: 39.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.5%, -6.1%
Threes: 29.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -5.1%
Twos: 42.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.2%, -6.3%
<6ft: 51.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -8.7%

Kawhi

Overall: 39.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.8%, -5.6%
Threes: 33.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.9, -1.2%
Twos: 41.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 48.8%, -7.2%
<6ft: 53.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.5%, -7.0%

LeBron:

Overall: 37.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.7%, -7.3%
Threes: 32.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -2.6%
Twos: 40.8 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.0%, -8.2%
<6ft: 48.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.9%, -11.3%

Though you addressed the playoffs, LeBron’s defense alone in those playoffs/Finals are noteworthy because it indicates peak possible defense. Combine that with his offense and it’s the greatest of all time Finals performance.

Sideshow had an RPM estimate of +8 to +9 on offense and +5 to +6 on defense. That’s a +15 player and that’s bonkers. It’s like one of the crazy “How good would Magic Pippen” or “How good would Hakeem Curry” creations come to life.

LeBron’s defense In the playoffs was ridiculous:

Overall: 31.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.9%, -14.0%
Threes: 24.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 36.7%, -12. 6%
Twos: 36.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 50.5%, -13.9%
<6ft: 37.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 61.3%, -23.5%

LeBron In the finals was utterly ridiculous:

Overall: 31.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.9%, -16.3%
Threes: 29.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 39.6%, -10.6%
Twos: 33.3 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 53.6%, -20.3%
<6ft: 38.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 63.6%, -25.1%

LeBron In the finals’ last three games was I don’t know what:

Overall: 19.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.4, -28.4%
Threes: 12.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 40.7%, -28.2%
Twos: 25 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.4%, -27.4%
<6ft: 15.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -45.2

This was game 5 defense https://stats.nba.com/player/2544/defense-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=06%2F13%2F2016&DateFrom=06%2F13%2F2016&PORound=4

This was game 6 defense https://stats.nba.com/player/2544/defense-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=06%2F16%2F2016&DateFrom=06%2F16%2F2016&PORound=4

The Warriors shot 4 for 28 overall (3/17 in game 5, 1/11 in game 6) in those two games (14.3%) when going against LeBron and that doesn’t include his team defense, defensive rebounding, rotations, etc,

The Warriors shot 2/13 AT THE RIM against LeBron during the final three games. Had James not stopped those shots (everyone knows the blocked shot on Iggy), Warriors win.

The guy not only led them in scoring and creating offense for others, he led their perimeter defense AND was one of the best “rim protectors” in the 2016 NBA playoffs.

These were the best rim protectors in the 2016 NBA playoffs

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-lt6/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*3

NBA.com has stats going back to the 2014 playoffs. For players who who contested at least 3 shots per game at the rim and played at least 6 games in the playoffs, LeBron is tied with Duncan with the best single season rim protection that we have on record. He did that WHILE being 31, not at his athletic peak AND being tasked with creating his team’s offense.

These were the best defenders of three pointers in the 2016 playoffs (defended at least 3.8 threes per game, played at least 6 games)

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-3pt/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&CF=FG3A*GE*3.8:GP*GE*6

Lebron didn't stop giving "effort" defensively post-Miami. He simply prioritized paint-protection/help:
aEnigma wrote:Because everywhere else prefers to count accolades, glance at steal totals, and then give an extra bonus when they see some strong individual man defence. The latter is the main reason I think people act as if Lebron stopped trying after 2013: he went full help defender, which is less versatile and why his clear defensive peak is earlier, but that does not mean he stops being a lot more valuable to his teams than Jordan was.

Heej wrote:The posts about LeBron not having enough traditional defensive counting stats pointing to a lack of activity is exactly what's wrong with basketball discourse when discussing defense. Unless you've played organized ball or have taken the time to watch professional level coaching videos on defense, you're not going to appreciate the fact that the most important thing a help defender can be on defense is a "yellow light".
Someone who's able to plug up the gaps or is far enough over on the weakside to "help the helper" and allow the closer weakside defender to fill the gap, or something as simple as tagging a roll man to fly out to a shooter and cause a record scratch is faaaaar more valuable over time than a flashy chest to chest lockdown guy.

uberhikari wrote:The most valuable defensive possession is not a contest, it's when the opponent can't even shoot the ball or has to shoot the ball under awful conditions. A considerable portion of someone like Hakeem's defensive value is when opposing teams won't even attempt a shot because they know he'll be there.

LeBron is the best wing defender in NBA history at this type of defensive jiujitsu. And if he was a better man-to-man perimeter defender with better footwork and a lower offensive load he'd be the best wing defender of all time.

When LeBron studies and remembers your playbook, has the IQ and awarenesses to properly react to an offensive threat, and is either in a position to blow up the action or [b][u]communicate with his teammate so they can do it
that provides incredible defensive value.[/b][/u]

So maybe if there's some plus minus stats showing his impact on defense but you don't think it's valid because your eye test tells you he's not active enough; there's a very good possibility that your eye test or weighting of the importance of certain actions (that don't necessarily show up in the box score or in other statistical compilations) is actually not in line with what matters in reality or what truly compounds defensively in the long run.

Even if, for whatever reason, you don't care that 09-17 Lebron looks like maybe the best non-big since Pippen(by any approach rooted in winning rather than box-stuffing), or that wings and bigs have consistently outvalue guards defensively, or that paint-protection, help, and communication are the skills that correlate best with defensive influence historically(Bill Rusell's Celtics maybe being the ultimate example)... Lebron still won more DPOY votes over his 5-year peak(at least per DPOY voting), finished top 5 five years in a row, and finished second twice to all-time bigs, after everyone realized bigs are the most valuable defenders. Recent guard DPOY Marcus Smart has never exhibited the influence 30+ Marc Gasol did in Toronto(average before, all-time-great with, average after). As has no guard in the last 50 years.

Jordan won DPOY on a defense that was significantly worse than the 09 Cavs(Lebron's best help being a half-season of 24 mpg Ben Wallace), and worse than the 2010 Cavs(That best help was now gone). That defense collapsed in the playoffs, and then returned to average when the Bulls lost their best front-court presence, right where they were before they even drafted Mike. It wasn't Jordan's ascension that saw the Bulls defense become elite(film-tracking and on/off actually suggest Jordan's a decline from 88/89 through the first three-peat), but Pippen's. And then they stayed elite when Jordan left to play baseball.

Even if we hone in on man-d, Jordan was not impervious, getting worked by Magic in 91, and then getting torched by Drexler in 92:
CapFan33 wrote:Colts18 did some tracking of Jordan's defense during the 92 finals against Clyde Drexler, and Drexler shot better against MJ than he did against everyone else by a decent margin. He shot 41% overall, but against Jordan specifically shot 44% while he shot 38% against everyone else.

Man-coverage is Lebron's alleged weakness here. But when Lebron, at his defensive apex, wasn't tasked with being the primary rim deterrent(giving him freedom to roam), the results were nothing short of incredible:
Colts18 wrote:Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6
3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS% :o :o :o

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)


+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

Peak Lebron was a very good man-defender which, paired with big advantages in more valuable defensive attributes(rim-deterrence, help, and orchestration), makes a comparison between the two pretty one-sided unless we...
blindly rely on nostalgic reputation and questionable award selections (or in the case of all-defensive selections, obviously different positional value and competition) to make all our assessments.


If you're going to favor hype over reality, at least understand how award-voting works. All-defensive teams are done positionally. Jordan competes against guards. Lebron competes against forwards. That Jordan was on a few more all-defensive teams vying against vastly worse defenders isn't really a win.

Leadership: Jordan maybe was an ass of a teammate sometimes but he stayed with the Bulls his entire career minus his two years with the Wizards when he was old. You could count on the guy to show up as he played the full 82 games i think 9 times in his career ( its late and im too lazy to look it up but i think its 9).

Whether it's better to share the wealth or stay "loyal" isn't relevant to whose the better leader. And I'm not sure why you're bring up "showing up" for a player who played significantly less minutes over the same period of time:
70sfan wrote:We can go a bit further and calculate average minutes played per year throughout their primes:

1985-98 Jordan: 35887 minutes in 13 seasons - 2760 minutes per season

2004-18 James: 44298 minutes in 15 seasons - 2953 minutes per season

Lebron helped his teams get better players therefore improving their chances to win. Those teammates may not like it, Tampering for an all-time talent like Davis is about as big of an off-court help a franchise can ask for. And let's not gloss over that Wizards stint:
Was he really? On the court he might have been more valuable but if the reports of his destroying the #1 pick in the whole draft Kwame Brown's confidence and getting the team to trade Rip Hamilton for a washed Jerry Stackhouse, I think he was actually a negative for the franchise. He set back the rebuild seriously and didn't push the team successfully anywhere. The front office liked him because he pushed ticket sales but as a fan, I strongly wished he had never decided to come back.

https://thesportsrush.com/nba-news-michael-jordan-used-flaming-fagot-as-reference-for-kwame-brown-his-whipping-boy-according-to-si-and-washington-post/
https://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/04/sports/pro-basketball-jordan-s-strained-ties-to-wizards-may-be-cut.html
According to one official, Hughes was explicitly told by Jordan to get him the ball if he wanted to play. When Hughes began passing it to Stackhouse as much as to Jordan, he was soon benched. Point guard Tyronn Lue, the official said, obliged and began finding Jordan every time he played. ''He was scared to death of what would happen to him in his career if he didn't,'' the player said of Lue. ''He was always looking at the bench at Michael.''

Late last fall, Richard Hamilton and Jordan got into an ugly shouting match. The two officials said it began when Hamilton told Jordan he was tired of being a ''Jordannaire,'' the term used for Jordan's role players in Chicago. ''Rip was a young, brash guy who threatened the idea of Michael being the guy here,'' the official said. ''He was promptly gotten rid of for Stackhouse.'' A person close to Jordan denied Hamilton was traded because of a personality conflict. He insisted contractual issues led to the Stackhouse deal.

In the season's final weeks, players openly complained about the double standards for Jordan. Promptly dressed and ready to speak with reporters after games, they were forced to wait in the locker room for 15 or 20 minutes while Jordan showered and dressed in a private room.

Jordan's "leadership" probably did more damage to the Wizards than anything Lebron has done, and it doesn't seem Jordan was much different in Chicago.
“I hate when I have to read that in the papers the next day, that I couldn’t do something. It wasn’t my fault.”

“They’re not interested in winning. They just want to sell tickets, which they can do because of me. They won’t make any deals to make us better. And this Kukoc thing. I hate that. They’re spending all their time chasing this guy.”

“I don’t know about trading a 24 year-old guy for a 34 year-old guy.” – Michael questioning the Oakley trade

He was very mad when the Bulls fired...Doug Collins, who let Jordan skip practices and try and be Lebron(with significantly less winning). He was upset when the Bulls made good moves to help him win rings, and blamed his teammates when they weren't winning(which lines up with him complaining that all his teammates were coke-heads in the last-dance).

The Bulls ultimately won with Jordan being forced to let other people make decisions, and then when he finally got his chance to do things the way he wanted, he basically set-back a franchise with the same "leadership" we saw him flashing before Phil came to Chicago.

Lebron has his own marks(trading for westbrook, taking an extra year to buy into spo's, is jr really worth 100 mill?), but ultimately, when Lebron tells blatt he doesn't need his system, he goes and beats a 73-win team using "lebron-ball"(meant to denote when lebron does alot at the same time because lebron is good enough at alot to do alot at the same time, not the meme-stereotype people apply to all of Lebron's teams). When he forces a trade for AD(duh) it's a move ultimately aimed at winning and which generally leads to winning. If you want to act like one franchise hoarding the glory is morally superior to 3 franchises getting a share, fine. But as far as winning goes, Lebron's "leadership" is clear.

Klutch: give me Jordan over James all day for the last shot of the game. Make or miss the guy is not afraid to take the shot. Last time i saw James with the ball in his hands with the clock running down in a tied game, he drove to the basket and instead of taking thd shot or getting fouled he passed out to Carmelo for a 3.

Sadly, clutch is not just scoring and Lebron is better at nearly everything else, which is why...
2009 Cavaliers: +39.9
2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4
1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2
2004 Pacers: +23.4

Looking at Lebron individually:
Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)

3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.


Helio-playmakers like Nash, Lebron, and Magic see their teams improve a bit in the 4th quarter while the Bulls got a little worse. Clutch is not just hitting a higher percentage of your shots at the end. Nor is it just hitting buzzer-beaters(though Lebron now leads in that). It's also when you complete an extremely difficult pass to create ft's for an 80% shooter, and affect possession after possession on the other end.

Lebron has led two finalists(one champion) that never lost with a lead in the 4th(2018/2020), has won every series where the opponent's srs is within 2 point of his(keeping in mind that Lebron has consistently been more valuable in the regular season), and has a winning record as an, on average, massive underdog(again, more valuable regular season player):
f4p wrote:Fun fact, Lebron played 15 toss-up series where the teams were within 2 points of each other. He went 15-0.
...

Incredibly, Lebron was -4.2 as an underdog and still went 7-6, which means he was able to win more than half the time as the equivalent of an 11-12 win underdog.

Lebron is merely 14-2 as a favorite(Mike is 24-0), losing twice after leading 66 and 61 teams with a cast Jordan would struggle to hit 50 win with. The first of which came with Lebron hitting two last-second shots(1 win, 1 loss), going perfect in overtime(loss), to punctuate extremely efficient scoring and creation in the "klutch".

Jordan's big underdog triumph came in 1989, hitting a buzzer-beater shot to squeak by a hobbled 80's variant of the Lebronto Raptors. Maybe if we define "klutch" as winning with an overwhelming talent advantage, or putting up shots, Jordan has an argument, Otherwise, not really.
Jordan has also accomplished more in fewer years.

Only if you cherrypick what counts as "accomplishment". There's nothing But whatever you count, at least be consistent. Why would we count Jordan's expansion era MVP's if we're discounting longetvity? But we really start cherrypicking when we get here:
Jordan also was never outplayed by one of his teammates in the finals, or played as poorly as James did in the 2011 finals.

Lebron lost a winnable final in an off-year. But he proceeded to be the best player on either team in the next 7, with 12, 14, 16, 17, 18, and 20 all stacking up to any of MJ's performances via box(and all of them being arguably or clearly ahead(12, 16) when we account for pesky details like defense(12, 13, 15, 16), cast(all of them but 12), coaching(14), running the offense(all of them), quality of creation(all of them), and opponent quality(all of them but 12 and 20).

2011 was still a better season than 1995(50+win help, crushed in 2nd round), which was sandwiched between Jordan being bailed out of an all-time choke in 1993, Jordan quitting in 1994, and Jordan being bailed out of the greatest choke ever in 96(and maybe they lose anyway if Payton is on Jordan from the start).

93-96 is quite easily the worst 4-year stretch in the primes of any of the conventional GOAT candidates, and Jordan's prime was by far the shortest. You can deflect with team success, but that will only get you so far, as even by rings(Kareem wins if we use finals as a tiebreaker, Duncan wins via general winning, Lebron wins with raw totals), he greatly trails Bill who, like Lebron, beat multiple teams, stronger than anyone MJ vanquished, with significantly less help(1969).

Beyond pretending a scoring title is inherently more meaningful than a triple double, or that non-predictive box-aggregates outweigh making teams better, it's quite hard to get Jordan at the top besides discounting what came before while simultaneously pretending basketball peaked in the 90's.
Finally the eye test. Im pretty sure between you and me, im the only one who has watched both careers. There is something to watching a guys career compared to looking up a players stats or watching a game on youtube.

And yet, my claims align with actual results, while yours align with very specific interpretations of slashlines and second-hand opinions.

But by all means, flex your "eye-test", break out the film.

I'd especially love to see how "watching-the-game" got you to Jordan being a Lebron+ defender when actual film-tracking has his teammate making less mistakes, while being more active at the paint, more active on the perimeter, and more active trying to blitz the other team on the other end(though Grant may have been the MVP there).

Unless of course, "watching his career", was really just watching The Last Dance.

And hey, if you reply, maybe actually respond to at least some of what was argued. This pattern of ignoring what others say, repeating your beliefs(with little to no support), then complaining about "lebron fans" is starting to get old.


Epic post here. Saved.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#148 » by Bergmaniac » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:46 pm

Probably Jordan, at least by the general public. And I am saying this as someone who thinks he has a very good case for GOAT. But the general public considers him to be way above any other player in the all-time ranking and impossible to ever be dethroned from the Number 1 spot, which is ridiculous.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#149 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:53 pm

70sFan wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:It’s definitely gotta be Bird. Gets compared to LeBron and Jokic as a passer despite never getting an AST% over 30. Gets talked about as an all-time shooter with a career 3-point percentage lower than Jimmy Butler in the playoffs. Has a reputation as an all-time clutch guy when he only cracked a 22.0 PER in the playoffs twice in his career.

It seems like he’s mostly just a good player who benefited from being on good teams in a weak era. I can see a better argument that he should be ranked below James Harden than I can that he should be ranked ahead of Steph Curry.

I don't have Bird in my top 10, but it's not surprising that you have him that low, considering that his impact was never about boxscore production.


I mean his defensive reputation was mixed so it’s all about the passing, right? What’s so great about the passing? He gets 2/3 as many assists as LeBron and whenever you watch tapes of Bird’s “incredible highlight passing”, it’s all just normal run of the mill passes that everyone makes now. When I see Bird highlights, I don’t think “wow, he made really incredible passes”, I think “huh, that was considered impressive then?” Like I really don’t see what I’m missing.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#150 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:55 pm

BTW, I didn’t want to quote the whole LeBron post because it’s so long, but that was an absolutely fantastic post. A+ work OkayoKD.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#151 » by jokeboy86 » Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:38 pm

Optms wrote:
Ni Da Ye wrote:Glad to see Kobe was not in the vote, coz he is at 11th all time ranking.

Kobe would have won the vote if he was though.


Kobe is actually underrated. You calling him overrated even though he literately isn't on this or most people's top 10's pretty much proves it. If this was still 2006 when fans including the media were calling him top 3 all time, maybe.


I love Kobe but he's already becoming overrated by casual fans and younger generations and since his death it truly has kicked into overdrive which is understandable cause he arguably was and still is the most popular player post-Jordan. Just look at the casual feedback of any recent top 10 list that doesn't include Kobe. It borders on outrage at times and even then they think minimum he should be top 5 but of course some of that's recency bias Go on social media and you'll see a large percentage of people that think only Jordan and Lebron should be ahead of Kobe. If there was a poll to every NBA player in the league today it wouldn't surprise me if some of them had Kobe #2 behind Jordan.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#152 » by Blame Rasho » Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:31 pm

OhayoKD wrote:blah blah blah….


Your post marginally has enough weight to temporarily sink a plastic yellow duck… :wink:
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#153 » by nikster » Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:24 pm

OhayoKD wrote:I see you chose to duck not 1, not 2, not 3, but every point I've made...whatever, I'll bite
MavsDirk41 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Post or don't post. There is no "can". Don't tag me if all you got is a bluff



Ok ill play. Since you made this Jordan vs James lets go:

Offense: Jordan won 10 scoring titles and has the highest scoring average points per game in the regular season and postseason. He could attack the basket, post up, mid range game all day, and he was an 85% free throw shooter. Only weakness was he was never a great 3pt shooter but he never needed it. He was a more dynamic, consistent, and better offensive player than James.

Sadly, offense isn't only scoring. Even early on, Lebron was a much better passer and at 24 we see Lebron matching 90/91 Jordan's efficiency/scoring/turnover economy in the playoffs(while creating much more) despite being the primary ball-handler(Jordan was a secondary ball-handler post-triangle), being the primary orchestrator(Pippen told people where to go for the triangle), and facing significantly more defensive attention(Deferring to Pippen/Illegal d led to Jordan being doubled very little and fairly late). Mind you, that was an improvement on a 66-win worthy base in 2009(in similar circumstances Jordan's bulls topped out at 50).

Lebron led a +5 offense at the age of 20(full-strength) after joining a 17-win team, losing his best teammate, and playing without 3-point specialists(in a league where that was a bigger disadvantage). "More dynamic/consistent" offensive player MJ was stuck at +1 until the triangle allowed him to switch from failing to do everything Lebron can(there's more to offense than ppg/scoring titles), to succeeding in a significantly more limited role(secondary ball-handler, not the orchestrator, co-creator).

By his second Cleveland stint, Lebron had become good to very good at all these scoring weaknesses while also upgrading his passing and decision making. The end result was a player whose production/efficiency was barely affected by opposing defensive quality(he actually put up his best numbers vs the league's best defense), who could adjust and counter opposing schemes like no one else ever:
Image

Lebron and Jordan are rated as comparable offensive players by box-aggregates. Notable because box-aggregates have no way of differentiating between the quality of a created look
Overall, Kobe’s rate of “good” passes in my sample was around 3 per 100. For comparison, Jordan was at 2 per 100 and an all-timer like Nash over 8 per 100.8

As a result of his increased primacy and evolved court vision, LeBron’s creation rates jumped from about 11 per 100 to a whopping 14 per 100, just short of the highest rates ever estimated. In my sampling, his quality passes leapt into the upper stratosphere, reaching Nash-like frequencies with a “good” pass on 8 percent of his possessions.

or accounting for the value of being able to verbally direct an offense...
Heej wrote:Highly reminiscent of what Phil wrote in Eleven Rings about Scottie being the quarterback and middle linebacker for offense and defense, being the guy who bore mental load of running the offense and getting people in their spots on defense and directing people. This allowed MJ to singularly focus on getting buckets as well as following his own defensive plan alongside the common Jordan steal improvisations. When you play, it can't be overstated how draining and constricting it is to be the guy responsible for rhe majority of the communication on the floor for one end, let alone both ends.

Which is what makes LeBron so incredible because he's been the control tower on offense and defense for damn near his entire career. We've had coaches and teammates describe him as a coach on the floor. There was an article during the 2018 Finals I remember where JR Smith said LeBron's communication on the floor legitimately makes everyone one step faster on defense. And this is something he doesn't get nearly enough credit for. But this is a big deal to people who are actually in the game and around the game, because one of the major talking points about the Lakers acquiring Rondo for LeBron was about how helpful it would be for LeBron to have someone else think the game for him and organize sets and get guys to their spots.

While this doesn't show up in box, it does, to a degree, show up when we look at how the presence of both players affect the teams around them. Even when he's less capable than usual at physically bolstering an offense(2015), his "intangibles" make a massive difference:
Unibrodavis wrote:My recollection was the 2020 Lakers had a top 5 offense pre bubble, I feel using the bubble is fine since the Lakers were the one who lost home court

2015/2016/2017/2018 lebron pretty obviously reigned it in during the regular season, 2015 bron obv had injury issues but I their offense was 1st in the games he played, it just was worst in the league level while he was hurt iirc, just checking through.

The playoff offense in 2015 was solid but it’s brought down by the Warriors series, it would have been first otherwise, and it’s hard to knock them for having a poor offense with a team that probably would be the worst offensive team ever without him.

2016 and 2017 they had the best playoff offense ever, 2018 obviously that’s a 20 win roster that went to the finals. My recollection is over the 30 or so games bron missed in his Cleveland tenure they were a bottom tier offensive team, even in the 20 Kyrie or love played, of course the bulls were league average ish

Even in an off-year(bad back, broken jumper) Lebron was more valuable than Jordan offensively, and maintained that value even at a massive spacing disadvantage. It's not because Lebron is limited(by his second stint in Cleveland, Lebron was a very good shooter and an excellent off-ball player), it isn't because Lebron isn't portable(Lebron has achieved more impressive results than Mike with and without strong shooting), and it isn't because Lebron can't lift a ceiling(Lebron's best 5 year playoff offenses are actually better than Mike's).

It's because Lebron is better at basketball. His "assists" are on average more valuable, and he doesn't need a second superstar to run his offense. That doesn't mean he "can't" fit with other stars or a system(Lebron+Wade lineups were comparable to Jordan+Pippen despite a weaker supporting cast, much higher skill-overlap, and Wade literally getting his knees operated over and over again), but it does mean Lebron doesn't need nearly as much to compete or win(The 13 Spurs and the 2016 Cavs were better than anyone MJ triumphed over). And then we get to defense and uhhh...
Defense: Jordan won a DPOY award

Sure...when the DPOY only went to non-bigs:
AEnigma wrote:Mark Eaton was the only big to win Defensive Player of the Year during the award’s first nine years. :blank:

But we know now(by tracking the best defenses in history, or looking at how much players improve defenses), that bigger players are more valuable defensively. Even when they don't get as many steals or blocks. This is because the most valuable part of defense is paint-protection, and Lebron(like Pippen) can function as primary paint-protectors on good/elite defenses. Moreover, the blocks/steals smaller players get are usually a byproduct of a bigger player's presence:
ceiling raiser wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:(1) Even if steals are overrated in box-based defensive measurements (e.g. if the box stats miss the fact that the steals come expense of unnecessary gambling, as they may for Jordan), steals are still individually the most valuable defensive play someone can make.

So a couple notes here.
(1) You are combining the defensive value of a steal with the offensive value generated. On the defensive side alone, steals aren't nearly as valuable as plays at the rim. Additionally, just like blocks, "steals" from a non-big often are a byproduct of a bigger player's influence...
https://youtu.be/p5aNUS762wM?t=1165
Here, Jordan is able to get a steal because Oakley stonewalls the attacker and occupies his attention. Yet as far as these box-models are concerned, all the credit here belongs to MJ. Notably, it was Oakley's arrival that saw the Bulls become a -2 defense in 1988(the only good defense Jordan has ever anchored), and it was with Oakley's depature that the Bulls fell back to mediocrity(Oakley also helped the knicks see a big overall improvement with New York slanting to offense). Charles did not rack up enough steals or blocks for stuff like "RAPTOR' to love him, but I'd argue on plays like these, its Oakley who deserves most of the credit, not steal-getter MJ.

Ultimately though, the proof is in the pudding, or in this case, the winning. Lebron, at 30 and 31 was having a bigger defensive impact in the regular season(cavs went from bad to solid with him, becoming top 10 post-sabbatical) before we get to the playoffs where he anchored multiple defenses on the level of the Pippen-anchored Bulls:
Sansterre wrote:Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +11.43 (4th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -3.82 (68th)
Playoff SRS: +14.55 (8th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +5.84 (5th)
Shooting Advantage: +3.1%, Possession Advantage: +2.7 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +3.42 (16th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.33 (43rd)


More-over, those defenses were resilient, getting even better against top 5 offenses:
Boston Celtics: +7.1 / -3.0
Chicago Bulls: +8.0 / -1.6
Atlanta Hawks: +10.9 / -9.1
Golden State Warriors: -1.7 / -4.3

Detroit Pistons: +14.9 / +4.4
Atlanta Hawks: +21.5 / +4.0
Toronto Raptors: +13.3 / -8.8
Golden State Warriors: +5.3 / -6.0


When we adjust for lineups, Lebron looks outright better than 2x DPOY Kawhi Leonard:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=103591642#p103591642
Looking more granularly, even 31 year old Lebron looks comparable in the regular season:
Spoiler:
homecourtloss wrote:
The more and more I look at it, Lebron’s 2016 defensive season looks to be one the best ever for a #1 scoring option who’s not a center and one of the best wing defensive years regardless.

1. First of all, I know there has to be other seasons in which a player was in the top 40%-50% of each of the defensive play types but I have’t seen one other than LeBron. I haven’t looked extensively, but have looked at 2019 PG13, Giannis, Kawhi, Siakam, KD (not that I thought he was a DPOY type defensive force [he’s improved greatly] but for comparisons to LeBron and his supposed horrid defense), 2018 RoCo and Roberson, 2016 Kawhi, Draymond, and LeBron.

LeBron, 2016 was not only top 50% in everything but at worst was top 27% in post up defense. Yes, there may not be many possessions in certain play types so there’s less meaning there, but every other player falls short somewhere.

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 3% in defending hand offs
Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 7% in defending in ISO
Top 27% in post up defense
Top 13% in spot up defense

Compare these numbers with these:

Kawhi, 2016—DPOY on a GOATy defensive team and maybe co-#1 option with LMA

Top 10% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 22% in defending hand offs
Top 2% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 31% in defending off of screens
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 29% in post up defense
Top 25% in spot up defense

Draymond, 2016—2nd in DPOY voting on a GOAT team and not the #1 option on offense

Top 29% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 43% in defending hand offs
Top 25% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 2% in defending off of screens
Top 15% in defending in ISO
Top 11% in post up defense
Top 34% in spot up defense

PG132019 considered a DPOY candidate and co-#1 option with Westbrook

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 23% in defending hand offs
Bottom 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 27% in defending off of screens
Top 13% in defending in ISO
Top 5% in post up defense
Top 19% in spot up defense

ISO defense

LeBron: .59 points per possession (PPP), 93rd percentile
Draymond: .68, 85th percentile
Kawhi: .69 PPP, 83rd percentile

Pick and roll ball handler

Kawhi: .65 PPP, 90th percentile
LeBron: .66 PPP, 88th percentile
Draymond: .88, 71st percentile

Pick and roll roll man

Kawhi: .50 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .70 PPP, 84th percentile
Draymond: .77 PPP, 75th percentile

Post defense

Draymond: .65 PPP, 89th percentile
LeBron: .77 PPP, 73rd percentile
Kawhi: .77 PPP, 71st percentile (numbers are rounded so James might have been at .772 and Kawhi at .768 or something)

Spot up defense

LeBron: .80 PPP, 87th percentile
Kawhi: .88 PPP, 75th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 66th percentile

Off screens defense

Draymond: .45 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .74PPP, 85th percentile
Kawhi: 1.05 PPP, 31st percentile

Hand offs defense

LeBron: .49 97th percentile
Kawhi: .72 PPP, 78th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 43rd percentile

No data available for transition defense, defense on cuts, and defense on offensive rebound out backs. In his thirteenth season playing on a team that's otherwise not that good defensively, James quietly out together a great, great defensive season because he had to since his team really had maybe three other plus defenders. Unlike Kawhi and Draymond who were subpar in some categories, James was at worst in the 73rd percentile.

The argument, “well, LeBron didn’t match up against the opposition’s best scorers doesn’t really hold water because look at the overall FG% of Dray’s, Kawhi’s, and LeBron’s opposition.

Players Draymond defended: 45.5%
Players Kawhi defended: 44.8%
Players LeBron defunded: 44.7%

Regular season

Draymond Green:

Overall: 39.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.5%, -6.1%
Threes: 29.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -5.1%
Twos: 42.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.2%, -6.3%
<6ft: 51.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -8.7%

Kawhi

Overall: 39.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.8%, -5.6%
Threes: 33.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.9, -1.2%
Twos: 41.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 48.8%, -7.2%
<6ft: 53.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.5%, -7.0%

LeBron:

Overall: 37.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.7%, -7.3%
Threes: 32.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -2.6%
Twos: 40.8 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.0%, -8.2%
<6ft: 48.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.9%, -11.3%

Though you addressed the playoffs, LeBron’s defense alone in those playoffs/Finals are noteworthy because it indicates peak possible defense. Combine that with his offense and it’s the greatest of all time Finals performance.

Sideshow had an RPM estimate of +8 to +9 on offense and +5 to +6 on defense. That’s a +15 player and that’s bonkers. It’s like one of the crazy “How good would Magic Pippen” or “How good would Hakeem Curry” creations come to life.

LeBron’s defense In the playoffs was ridiculous:

Overall: 31.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.9%, -14.0%
Threes: 24.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 36.7%, -12. 6%
Twos: 36.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 50.5%, -13.9%
<6ft: 37.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 61.3%, -23.5%

LeBron In the finals was utterly ridiculous:

Overall: 31.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.9%, -16.3%
Threes: 29.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 39.6%, -10.6%
Twos: 33.3 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 53.6%, -20.3%
<6ft: 38.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 63.6%, -25.1%

LeBron In the finals’ last three games was I don’t know what:

Overall: 19.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.4, -28.4%
Threes: 12.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 40.7%, -28.2%
Twos: 25 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.4%, -27.4%
<6ft: 15.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -45.2

This was game 5 defense https://stats.nba.com/player/2544/defense-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=06%2F13%2F2016&DateFrom=06%2F13%2F2016&PORound=4

This was game 6 defense https://stats.nba.com/player/2544/defense-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=06%2F16%2F2016&DateFrom=06%2F16%2F2016&PORound=4

The Warriors shot 4 for 28 overall (3/17 in game 5, 1/11 in game 6) in those two games (14.3%) when going against LeBron and that doesn’t include his team defense, defensive rebounding, rotations, etc,

The Warriors shot 2/13 AT THE RIM against LeBron during the final three games. Had James not stopped those shots (everyone knows the blocked shot on Iggy), Warriors win.

The guy not only led them in scoring and creating offense for others, he led their perimeter defense AND was one of the best “rim protectors” in the 2016 NBA playoffs.

These were the best rim protectors in the 2016 NBA playoffs

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-lt6/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*3

NBA.com has stats going back to the 2014 playoffs. For players who who contested at least 3 shots per game at the rim and played at least 6 games in the playoffs, LeBron is tied with Duncan with the best single season rim protection that we have on record. He did that WHILE being 31, not at his athletic peak AND being tasked with creating his team’s offense.

These were the best defenders of three pointers in the 2016 playoffs (defended at least 3.8 threes per game, played at least 6 games)

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-3pt/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&CF=FG3A*GE*3.8:GP*GE*6

Lebron didn't stop giving "effort" defensively post-Miami. He simply prioritized paint-protection/help:
aEnigma wrote:Because everywhere else prefers to count accolades, glance at steal totals, and then give an extra bonus when they see some strong individual man defence. The latter is the main reason I think people act as if Lebron stopped trying after 2013: he went full help defender, which is less versatile and why his clear defensive peak is earlier, but that does not mean he stops being a lot more valuable to his teams than Jordan was.

Heej wrote:The posts about LeBron not having enough traditional defensive counting stats pointing to a lack of activity is exactly what's wrong with basketball discourse when discussing defense. Unless you've played organized ball or have taken the time to watch professional level coaching videos on defense, you're not going to appreciate the fact that the most important thing a help defender can be on defense is a "yellow light".
Someone who's able to plug up the gaps or is far enough over on the weakside to "help the helper" and allow the closer weakside defender to fill the gap, or something as simple as tagging a roll man to fly out to a shooter and cause a record scratch is faaaaar more valuable over time than a flashy chest to chest lockdown guy.

uberhikari wrote:The most valuable defensive possession is not a contest, it's when the opponent can't even shoot the ball or has to shoot the ball under awful conditions. A considerable portion of someone like Hakeem's defensive value is when opposing teams won't even attempt a shot because they know he'll be there.

LeBron is the best wing defender in NBA history at this type of defensive jiujitsu. And if he was a better man-to-man perimeter defender with better footwork and a lower offensive load he'd be the best wing defender of all time.

When LeBron studies and remembers your playbook, has the IQ and awarenesses to properly react to an offensive threat, and is either in a position to blow up the action or [b][u]communicate with his teammate so they can do it
that provides incredible defensive value.[/b][/u]

So maybe if there's some plus minus stats showing his impact on defense but you don't think it's valid because your eye test tells you he's not active enough; there's a very good possibility that your eye test or weighting of the importance of certain actions (that don't necessarily show up in the box score or in other statistical compilations) is actually not in line with what matters in reality or what truly compounds defensively in the long run.

Even if, for whatever reason, you don't care that 09-17 Lebron looks like maybe the best non-big since Pippen(by any approach rooted in winning rather than box-stuffing), or that wings and bigs have consistently outvalue guards defensively, or that paint-protection, help, and communication are the skills that correlate best with defensive influence historically(Bill Rusell's Celtics maybe being the ultimate example)... Lebron still won more DPOY votes over his 5-year peak(at least per DPOY voting), finished top 5 five years in a row, and finished second twice to all-time bigs, after everyone realized bigs are the most valuable defenders. Recent guard DPOY Marcus Smart has never exhibited the influence 30+ Marc Gasol did in Toronto(average before, all-time-great with, average after). As has no guard in the last 50 years.

Jordan won DPOY on a defense that was significantly worse than the 09 Cavs(Lebron's best help being a half-season of 24 mpg Ben Wallace), and worse than the 2010 Cavs(That best help was now gone). That defense collapsed in the playoffs, and then returned to average when the Bulls lost their best front-court presence, right where they were before they even drafted Mike. It wasn't Jordan's ascension that saw the Bulls defense become elite(film-tracking and on/off actually suggest Jordan's a decline from 88/89 through the first three-peat), but Pippen's. And then they stayed elite when Jordan left to play baseball.

Even if we hone in on man-d, Jordan was not impervious, getting worked by Magic in 91, and then getting torched by Drexler in 92:
CapFan33 wrote:Colts18 did some tracking of Jordan's defense during the 92 finals against Clyde Drexler, and Drexler shot better against MJ than he did against everyone else by a decent margin. He shot 41% overall, but against Jordan specifically shot 44% while he shot 38% against everyone else.

Man-coverage is Lebron's alleged weakness here. But when Lebron, at his defensive apex, wasn't tasked with being the primary rim deterrent(giving him freedom to roam), the results were nothing short of incredible:
Colts18 wrote:Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6
3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS% :o :o :o

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)


+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

Peak Lebron was a very good man-defender which, paired with big advantages in more valuable defensive attributes(rim-deterrence, help, and orchestration), makes a comparison between the two pretty one-sided unless we...
blindly rely on nostalgic reputation and questionable award selections (or in the case of all-defensive selections, obviously different positional value and competition) to make all our assessments.


If you're going to favor hype over reality, at least understand how award-voting works. All-defensive teams are done positionally. Jordan competes against guards. Lebron competes against forwards. That Jordan was on a few more all-defensive teams vying against vastly worse defenders isn't really a win.

Leadership: Jordan maybe was an ass of a teammate sometimes but he stayed with the Bulls his entire career minus his two years with the Wizards when he was old. You could count on the guy to show up as he played the full 82 games i think 9 times in his career ( its late and im too lazy to look it up but i think its 9).

Whether it's better to share the wealth or stay "loyal" isn't relevant to whose the better leader. And I'm not sure why you're bring up "showing up" for a player who played significantly less minutes over the same period of time:
70sfan wrote:We can go a bit further and calculate average minutes played per year throughout their primes:

1985-98 Jordan: 35887 minutes in 13 seasons - 2760 minutes per season

2004-18 James: 44298 minutes in 15 seasons - 2953 minutes per season

Lebron helped his teams get better players therefore improving their chances to win. Those teammates may not like it, but tampering for an all-time talent like Davis is about as big of an off-court win a franchise can ask for. And let's not gloss over that Wizards stint:
Was he really? On the court he might have been more valuable but if the reports of his destroying the #1 pick in the whole draft Kwame Brown's confidence and getting the team to trade Rip Hamilton for a washed Jerry Stackhouse, I think he was actually a negative for the franchise. He set back the rebuild seriously and didn't push the team successfully anywhere. The front office liked him because he pushed ticket sales but as a fan, I strongly wished he had never decided to come back.

https://thesportsrush.com/nba-news-michael-jordan-used-flaming-fagot-as-reference-for-kwame-brown-his-whipping-boy-according-to-si-and-washington-post/
https://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/04/sports/pro-basketball-jordan-s-strained-ties-to-wizards-may-be-cut.html
According to one official, Hughes was explicitly told by Jordan to get him the ball if he wanted to play. When Hughes began passing it to Stackhouse as much as to Jordan, he was soon benched. Point guard Tyronn Lue, the official said, obliged and began finding Jordan every time he played. ''He was scared to death of what would happen to him in his career if he didn't,'' the player said of Lue. ''He was always looking at the bench at Michael.''

Late last fall, Richard Hamilton and Jordan got into an ugly shouting match. The two officials said it began when Hamilton told Jordan he was tired of being a ''Jordannaire,'' the term used for Jordan's role players in Chicago. ''Rip was a young, brash guy who threatened the idea of Michael being the guy here,'' the official said. ''He was promptly gotten rid of for Stackhouse.'' A person close to Jordan denied Hamilton was traded because of a personality conflict. He insisted contractual issues led to the Stackhouse deal.

In the season's final weeks, players openly complained about the double standards for Jordan. Promptly dressed and ready to speak with reporters after games, they were forced to wait in the locker room for 15 or 20 minutes while Jordan showered and dressed in a private room.

Jordan's "leadership" probably did more damage to the Wizards than anything Lebron has done, and it doesn't seem Jordan was much different in Chicago.
“I hate when I have to read that in the papers the next day, that I couldn’t do something. It wasn’t my fault.”

“They’re not interested in winning. They just want to sell tickets, which they can do because of me. They won’t make any deals to make us better. And this Kukoc thing. I hate that. They’re spending all their time chasing this guy.”

“I don’t know about trading a 24 year-old guy for a 34 year-old guy.” – Michael questioning the Oakley trade

He was very mad when the Bulls fired...Doug Collins, who let Jordan skip practices and try and be Lebron(with significantly less winning). He was upset when the Bulls made good moves to help him win rings, and blamed his teammates when they weren't winning(which lines up with him complaining that all his teammates were coke-heads in the last-dance).

The Bulls ultimately won with Jordan being forced to let other people make decisions, and then when he finally got his chance to do things the way he wanted, he basically set-back a franchise with the same "leadership" we saw him flashing before Phil came to Chicago.

Lebron has his own marks(trading for westbrook, taking an extra year to buy into spo's, is jr really worth 100 mill?), but ultimately, when Lebron tells blatt he doesn't need his system, he goes and beats a 73-win team using "lebron-ball"(meant to denote when lebron does alot at the same time because lebron is good enough at alot to do alot at the same time, not the meme-stereotype people apply to all of Lebron's teams). When he forces a trade for AD(duh) it's a move ultimately aimed at winning and which generally leads to winning. If you want to act like one franchise hoarding the glory is morally superior to 3 franchises getting a share, fine. But as far as winning goes, Lebron's "leadership" is clear.

Klutch: give me Jordan over James all day for the last shot of the game. Make or miss the guy is not afraid to take the shot. Last time i saw James with the ball in his hands with the clock running down in a tied game, he drove to the basket and instead of taking thd shot or getting fouled he passed out to Carmelo for a 3.

Sadly, clutch is not just scoring and Lebron is better at nearly everything else, which is why...
2009 Cavaliers: +39.9
2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4
1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2
2004 Pacers: +23.4

Looking at Lebron individually:
Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)

3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.


Helio-playmakers like Nash, Lebron, and Magic see their teams improve a bit in the 4th quarter while the Bulls got a little worse. Clutch is not just hitting a higher percentage of your shots at the end. Nor is it just hitting buzzer-beaters(though Lebron now leads in that). It's also when you complete an extremely difficult pass to create ft's for an 80% shooter, and affect possession after possession on the other end.

Lebron has led two finalists(one champion) that never lost with a lead in the 4th(2018/2020), has won every series where the opponent's srs is within 2 point of his(keeping in mind that Lebron has consistently been more valuable in the regular season), and has a winning record as an, on average, massive underdog(again, more valuable regular season player):
f4p wrote:Fun fact, Lebron played 15 toss-up series where the teams were within 2 points of each other. He went 15-0.
...

Incredibly, Lebron was -4.2 as an underdog and still went 7-6, which means he was able to win more than half the time as the equivalent of an 11-12 win underdog.

Lebron is merely 14-2 as a favorite(Mike is 24-0), losing twice after leading 66 and 61 teams with a cast Jordan would struggle to hit 50 win with. The first of which came with Lebron hitting two last-second shots(1 win, 1 loss), going perfect in overtime(loss), to punctuate extremely efficient scoring and creation in the "klutch".

Jordan's big underdog triumph came in 1989, hitting a buzzer-beater shot to squeak by a hobbled 80's variant of the Lebronto Raptors. Maybe if we define "klutch" as winning with an overwhelming talent advantage, or putting up shots, Jordan has an argument, Otherwise, not really.
Jordan has also accomplished more in fewer years.

Only if you cherrypick what counts as "accomplishment". What makes putting up the most points more meaningful than a triple-double? But whatever, at least be consistent. Why are we counting Jordan's expansion era MVP's if we're discounting longevity?

We also really, really start cherrypicking when we get here:
Jordan also was never outplayed by one of his teammates in the finals, or played as poorly as James did in the 2011 finals.

Lebron lost a winnable final in an off-year. But he proceeded to be the best player on either team in the next 7, with 12, 14, 16, 17, 18, and 20 all stacking up to any of MJ's performances via box(and all of them being arguably or clearly ahead(12, 16) when we account for pesky details like defense(12, 13, 15, 16), cast(all of them but 12), coaching(14), running the offense(all of them), quality of creation(all of them), and opponent quality(all of them but 12 and 20).

2011 was still a better season than 1995(50+win help, crushed in 2nd round), which was sandwiched between Jordan being bailed out of an all-time choke in 1993, Jordan quitting in 1994, and Jordan being bailed out of the greatest choke ever in 96(and maybe they lose anyway if Payton is on Jordan from the start).

93-96 is quite easily the worst 4-year stretch in the primes of any of the conventional GOAT candidates, and Jordan's prime was by far the shortest. You can deflect with team success, but that will only get you so far, as even by rings(Kareem wins if we use finals as a tiebreaker, Duncan wins via general winning, Lebron wins with raw totals), he greatly trails Bill who, like Lebron, beat multiple teams, stronger than anyone MJ vanquished, with significantly less help(1969).

Beyond pretending a scoring title is inherently more meaningful than a triple double, or that non-predictive box-aggregates outweigh making teams better, it's quite hard to get Jordan at the top unless you discount what came before while simultaneously pretending basketball peaked in the 90's.
Finally the eye test. Im pretty sure between you and me, im the only one who has watched both careers. There is something to watching a guys career compared to looking up a players stats or watching a game on youtube.

And yet, my claims align with actual results, while yours align with very specific interpretations of slashlines and second-hand opinions.

But by all means, flex your "eye-test" and break out some film.

I'd especially love to see how "watching-the-game" got you to Jordan being a Lebron+ defender when actual film-tracking has his teammate making less mistakes, while being more active at the paint, more active on the perimeter, and more active trying to blitz the other team on the other end(though Grant may have been the MVP there).

Unless of course, "watching his career", was really just watching The Last Dance.

And hey, if you reply, maybe actually respond to at least some of what was argued. This pattern of ignoring what others say, repeating your beliefs(with little to no support), then complaining about "lebron fans" is starting to get old.

Respect. Most comprehensive post I've seen on here.
BmanInBigD
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#154 » by BmanInBigD » Fri Mar 24, 2023 12:00 am

Duncan is by far the most overrated Top 10 player. Nobody had him any where close to that high when he was playing. He was slightly ahead of Dirk and Garnett during the period but not miles better. The combo of arguably the best coach in the NBA with a couple of great complimentary players elevated his status to higher than it should have been IMO. Like Russell, he was the beneficiary of some extraordinarily good circumstances.
When someone says, "to make a long story short", it's usually too late.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#155 » by art_tatum » Fri Mar 24, 2023 1:01 am

Overrated relative to their positions in the top 10 i would have to say Russell and Hakeem.

Russell is too hard to place and for me is an important basketball player in terms of history etc but i wouldn't put him in the top 10. Yes he has chips. But those were 8-12 team leagues where Boston had all the talent. Plus Watching the games he doesn't scream top 10 talent wise.

Hakeem is not in my top 10 anymore. I have guys like Kobe and curry ahead of him. Great short peak but bc of the competition in that lower top 10, i think he sits outside the top 10 even though people always include him - thus making him overrated to me.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#156 » by MavsDirk41 » Fri Mar 24, 2023 2:13 am

This is to the Ohayokd kid. Believe what you want man but Jordan was better offensively, better defensively, more of a leader, and way way more Klutch. And despite what you say Jordan was/is the better basketball player. Im 47 so yes i watched his career and not just the last dance. Surveys with nba fans who are old enough to have watched both careers favor Jordan by a wide margin in the Jordan/James debate. I would respect your opinion a little more if you were actually old enough to have watched his career. Im guessing you are about 20. Funny how someone can turn his complete failure in 2011 against my Mavs in the finals as a win. What you did was what i call polishing a terd. James is your GOAT and thats fine. But Jordan is the greatest player i have ever seen and none of your mumbo jumbo/entire page remarks is gonna change that. The eye test of watching both players in their careers is all i need.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#157 » by GrindCityHustle » Fri Mar 24, 2023 2:26 am

Glad we are taking Russell of the list. He was eclipsed 10 years ago and def in the last 5.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#158 » by BostonCouchGM » Fri Mar 24, 2023 2:33 am

iggymcfrack wrote:It’s definitely gotta be Bird. Gets compared to LeBron and Jokic as a passer despite never getting an AST% over 30. Gets talked about as an all-time shooter with a career 3-point percentage lower than Jimmy Butler in the playoffs. Has a reputation as an all-time clutch guy when he only cracked a 22.0 PER in the playoffs twice in his career.

It seems like he’s mostly just a good player who benefited from being on good teams in a weak era. I can see a better argument that he should be ranked below James Harden than I can that he should be ranked ahead of Steph Curry.


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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#159 » by nikster » Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:06 am

MavsDirk41 wrote:This is to the Ohayokd kid. Believe what you want man but Jordan was better offensively, better defensively, more of a leader, and way way more Klutch. And despite what you say Jordan was/is the better basketball player. Im 47 so yes i watched his career and not just the last dance. Surveys with nba fans who are old enough to have watched both careers favor Jordan by a wide margin in the Jordan/James debate. I would respect your opinion a little more if you were actually old enough to have watched his career. Im guessing you are about 20. Funny how someone can turn his complete failure in 2011 against my Mavs in the finals as a win. What you did was what i call polishing a terd. James is your GOAT and thats fine. But Jordan is the greatest player i have ever seen and none of your mumbo jumbo/entire page remarks is gonna change that. The eye test of watching both players in their careers is all i need.

So you were 9 years old when he was drafted? :lol: I get the importance of watching a career unfold but You were a teenager for basically his entire career.
I'm sure you saw tons of footage, had extensive basketball knowledge, were critically examining his play, didn't get caught up in the hype and marketing, and aren't at all nolsatgic about that period.
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Re: Most Overrated Player in the Top 10 

Post#160 » by MavsDirk41 » Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:42 am

nikster wrote:
MavsDirk41 wrote:This is to the Ohayokd kid. Believe what you want man but Jordan was better offensively, better defensively, more of a leader, and way way more Klutch. And despite what you say Jordan was/is the better basketball player. Im 47 so yes i watched his career and not just the last dance. Surveys with nba fans who are old enough to have watched both careers favor Jordan by a wide margin in the Jordan/James debate. I would respect your opinion a little more if you were actually old enough to have watched his career. Im guessing you are about 20. Funny how someone can turn his complete failure in 2011 against my Mavs in the finals as a win. What you did was what i call polishing a terd. James is your GOAT and thats fine. But Jordan is the greatest player i have ever seen and none of your mumbo jumbo/entire page remarks is gonna change that. The eye test of watching both players in their careers is all i need.

So you were 9 years old when he was drafted? :lol: I get the importance of watching a career unfold but You were a teenager for basically his entire career.
I'm sure you saw tons of footage, had extensive basketball knowledge, were critically examining his play, didn't get caught up in the hype and marketing, and aren't at all nolsatgic about that period.



I started watching the nba when I was 12 in 87. First game i watched was Boston and Atlanta on CBS on a Sunday. Bird was my favorite player growing up. My team was the Mavs but i thought Bird was the best player in the league back then. So i missed Jordans first few years. You caught me kid.

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