2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[Dutchball97]

I wasn't sure about voting for Walker Kessler tbh because of the relatively low amount of minutes he's played compared to some of the others but even then he's been playing increasingly more, starting for a good while and playing 30-ish minutes most games now. I don't think it's fair to paint him as a "low minute, high impact" guy who we'll have to see if he can keep that level up with a bigger load because that's exactly what he's already been doing this year. Just looking at impact there doesn't really seem to be much of a competition though with him being a big positive and the next best being right around neutral. With his limited minutes, Kessler is still topping all the "value added" categories of stats. I'm kind of running out of arguments to make against him and I'll very likely end up voting him for ROY.

The only one I could see a case for is Jalen Williams because he's been the best among the big minute rookies but outside of boxscore stats I think the gap to Kessler is probably too big for him to overcome at this late point in the season. Banchero is still 3rd at the moment but I could be talked into voting for someone like Tari Eason or Keegan Murray instead as I don't see much statistical seperation.

[Colbinii]

I wasn't sure about voting for Walker Kessler tbh because of the relatively low amount of minutes he's played compared to some of the others but even then he's been playing increasingly more, starting for a good while and playing 30-ish minutes most games now. I don't think it's fair to paint him as a "low minute, high impact" guy who we'll have to see if he can keep that level up with a bigger load because that's exactly what he's already been doing this year. Just looking at impact there doesn't really seem to be much of a competition though with him being a big positive and the next best being right around neutral. With his limited minutes, Kessler is still topping all the "value added" categories of stats. I'm kind of running out of arguments to make against him and I'll very likely end up voting him for ROY.

The only one I could see a case for is Jalen Williams because he's been the best among the big minute rookies but outside of boxscore stats I think the gap to Kessler is probably too big for him to overcome at this late point in the season. Banchero is still 3rd at the moment but I could be talked into voting for someone like Tari Eason or Keegan Murray instead as I don't see much statistical seperation.

I have Jalen Williams over Walker Kessler currently. Both are playing important minutes on teams fighting for the playoffs [meaningful games].

The main reason is I believe Jalen Williams has a more difficult role and more responsibility and he has been amazing the past 2-3 months. Since becoming a consistent starter [December 12th], he has averaged 15/5.2/3.6 with 1.7 steals, 1.7 turnovers and .517/.372/.800 splits.

Am I crazy? I thought Jalen Williams was the guy counting up all the Charges, but it is actually Jaylin Williams [Only 700 minutes] who leads the league in charges with 30. That's insane.

[jazzfan1971]

https://theathletic.com/4337855/2023/03/23/nba-mvp-race-rookie-of-the-year/?source=emp-shared-article

[Dutchball97]

I wasn't sure about voting for Walker Kessler tbh because of the relatively low amount of minutes he's played compared to some of the others but even then he's been playing increasingly more, starting for a good while and playing 30-ish minutes most games now. I don't think it's fair to paint him as a "low minute, high impact" guy who we'll have to see if he can keep that level up with a bigger load because that's exactly what he's already been doing this year. Just looking at impact there doesn't really seem to be much of a competition though with him being a big positive and the next best being right around neutral. With his limited minutes, Kessler is still topping all the "value added" categories of stats. I'm kind of running out of arguments to make against him and I'll very likely end up voting him for ROY.

The only one I could see a case for is Jalen Williams because he's been the best among the big minute rookies but outside of boxscore stats I think the gap to Kessler is probably too big for him to overcome at this late point in the season. Banchero is still 3rd at the moment but I could be talked into voting for someone like Tari Eason or Keegan Murray instead as I don't see much statistical seperation.

I have Jalen Williams over Walker Kessler currently. Both are playing important minutes on teams fighting for the playoffs [meaningful games].

The main reason is I believe Jalen Williams has a more difficult role and more responsibility and he has been amazing the past 2-3 months. Since becoming a consistent starter [December 12th], he has averaged 15/5.2/3.6 with 1.7 steals, 1.7 turnovers and .517/.372/.800 splits.

Am I crazy? I thought Jalen Williams was the guy counting up all the Charges, but it is actually Jaylin Williams [Only 700 minutes] who leads the league in charges with 30. That's insane.

It's just that Walker Kessler at the moment has +3 RAPTOR to Williams' -1.3, +2.6 BPM compared to +0.4, +3.14 LEBRON to -0.93, +0.87 RAPM to -1.11 and +2 to +0 in EPM.

But you do make a good point that they're both playing on teams in the hunt for the play-offs. Seeing as the 6th to 12th seeds in the west are all within a loss of each other, the Jazz, Thunder or both could find themselves in the play-offs or at least the play-in. A strong performance there could still change the tides for me although the statistical difference might be a bit too large to overcome at this point.

[rk2023]

I wasn't sure about voting for Walker Kessler tbh because of the relatively low amount of minutes he's played compared to some of the others but even then he's been playing increasingly more, starting for a good while and playing 30-ish minutes most games now. I don't think it's fair to paint him as a "low minute, high impact" guy who we'll have to see if he can keep that level up with a bigger load because that's exactly what he's already been doing this year. Just looking at impact there doesn't really seem to be much of a competition though with him being a big positive and the next best being right around neutral. With his limited minutes, Kessler is still topping all the "value added" categories of stats. I'm kind of running out of arguments to make against him and I'll very likely end up voting him for ROY.

The only one I could see a case for is Jalen Williams because he's been the best among the big minute rookies but outside of boxscore stats I think the gap to Kessler is probably too big for him to overcome at this late point in the season. Banchero is still 3rd at the moment but I could be talked into voting for someone like Tari Eason or Keegan Murray instead as I don't see much statistical seperation.

I have Jalen Williams over Walker Kessler currently. Both are playing important minutes on teams fighting for the playoffs [meaningful games].

The main reason is I believe Jalen Williams has a more difficult role and more responsibility and he has been amazing the past 2-3 months. Since becoming a consistent starter [December 12th], he has averaged 15/5.2/3.6 with 1.7 steals, 1.7 turnovers and .517/.372/.800 splits.

Am I crazy? I thought Jalen Williams was the guy counting up all the Charges, but it is actually Jaylin Williams [Only 700 minutes] who leads the league in charges with 30. That's insane.

It's just that Walker Kessler at the moment has +3 RAPTOR to Williams' -1.3, +2.6 BPM compared to +0.4, +3.14 LEBRON to -0.93, +0.87 RAPM to -1.11 and +2 to +0 in EPM.

But you do make a good point that they're both playing on teams in the hunt for the play-offs. Seeing as the 6th to 12th seeds in the west are all within a loss of each other, the Jazz, Thunder or both could find themselves in the play-offs or at least the play-in. A strong performance there could still change the tides for me although the statistical difference might be a bit too large to overcome at this point.

When you're looking at these metrics in a vacuum, how much more willing are you to curve / adjust your stance for context behind why the data may be the way it is? (Kessler playing 23 MPG vs. 30 for Williams, one facing benches more often than the other).

[Doctor MJ]

I have Jalen Williams over Walker Kessler currently. Both are playing important minutes on teams fighting for the playoffs [meaningful games].

The main reason is I believe Jalen Williams has a more difficult role and more responsibility and he has been amazing the past 2-3 months. Since becoming a consistent starter [December 12th], he has averaged 15/5.2/3.6 with 1.7 steals, 1.7 turnovers and .517/.372/.800 splits.

Am I crazy? I thought Jalen Williams was the guy counting up all the Charges, but it is actually Jaylin Williams [Only 700 minutes] who leads the league in charges with 30. That's insane.

It's just that Walker Kessler at the moment has +3 RAPTOR to Williams' -1.3, +2.6 BPM compared to +0.4, +3.14 LEBRON to -0.93, +0.87 RAPM to -1.11 and +2 to +0 in EPM.

But you do make a good point that they're both playing on teams in the hunt for the play-offs. Seeing as the 6th to 12th seeds in the west are all within a loss of each other, the Jazz, Thunder or both could find themselves in the play-offs or at least the play-in. A strong performance there could still change the tides for me although the statistical difference might be a bit too large to overcome at this point.

When you're looking at these metrics in a vacuum, how much more willing are you to curve / adjust your stance for context behind why the data may be the way it is? (Kessler playing 23 MPG vs. 30 for Williams, one facing benches more often than the other).

So as I've said, I'm holding off coming to conclusions at this point, but I will say:

The "only 23 MPG" argument carries a lot more water with me if that's what he does all year. Now that Kessler is playing 30 a game, if he keeps up what he was doing before, there won't be any reason I can see to doubt him based on limited role.

[Dutchball97]

I have Jalen Williams over Walker Kessler currently. Both are playing important minutes on teams fighting for the playoffs [meaningful games].

The main reason is I believe Jalen Williams has a more difficult role and more responsibility and he has been amazing the past 2-3 months. Since becoming a consistent starter [December 12th], he has averaged 15/5.2/3.6 with 1.7 steals, 1.7 turnovers and .517/.372/.800 splits.

Am I crazy? I thought Jalen Williams was the guy counting up all the Charges, but it is actually Jaylin Williams [Only 700 minutes] who leads the league in charges with 30. That's insane.

It's just that Walker Kessler at the moment has +3 RAPTOR to Williams' -1.3, +2.6 BPM compared to +0.4, +3.14 LEBRON to -0.93, +0.87 RAPM to -1.11 and +2 to +0 in EPM.

But you do make a good point that they're both playing on teams in the hunt for the play-offs. Seeing as the 6th to 12th seeds in the west are all within a loss of each other, the Jazz, Thunder or both could find themselves in the play-offs or at least the play-in. A strong performance there could still change the tides for me although the statistical difference might be a bit too large to overcome at this point.

When you're looking at these metrics in a vacuum, how much more willing are you to curve / adjust your stance for context behind why the data may be the way it is? (Kessler playing 23 MPG vs. 30 for Williams, one facing benches more often than the other).

I sort of addressed that in my initial comment. Sure Kessler isn't playing as much as Banchero and Williams but that's mostly because of Kessler starting out with limited minutes. As the season progressed Kessler secured a starting role and has been playing over 30 mpg more often than not the second half of the season. If any of these metrics were closer it'd definitely be likely for one of the guys playing big minutes all season to take the lead but as it stands I don't think you can write off Kessler's standout statistical performance to something like that.

[cupcakesnake]

It's just that Walker Kessler at the moment has +3 RAPTOR to Williams' -1.3, +2.6 BPM compared to +0.4, +3.14 LEBRON to -0.93, +0.87 RAPM to -1.11 and +2 to +0 in EPM.

But you do make a good point that they're both playing on teams in the hunt for the play-offs. Seeing as the 6th to 12th seeds in the west are all within a loss of each other, the Jazz, Thunder or both could find themselves in the play-offs or at least the play-in. A strong performance there could still change the tides for me although the statistical difference might be a bit too large to overcome at this point.

When you're looking at these metrics in a vacuum, how much more willing are you to curve / adjust your stance for context behind why the data may be the way it is? (Kessler playing 23 MPG vs. 30 for Williams, one facing benches more often than the other).

I sort of addressed that in my initial comment. Sure Kessler isn't playing as much as Banchero and Williams but that's mostly because of Kessler starting out with limited minutes. As the season progressed Kessler secured a starting role and has been playing over 30 mpg more often than not the second half of the season. If any of these metrics were closer it'd definitely be likely for one of the guys playing big minutes all season to take the lead but as it stands I don't think you can write off Kessler's standout statistical performance to something like that.

I've said it before: I think any +/- derived numbers for Jalen Williams is pretty corrupted by 300 minutes of Poku and being the primary guy when Shai (their best and most impactful player) is out.

I also think that Kessler's on/off advantages are for the very obvious reason that he's a skill outlier in Utah. Amongst the Utah frontcourt players (Markannen, Olynyk, and formerly Vando), Kessler is the only source of rim protection. When he's not on the floor, Utah has completely punted on rim protection. They've had mixed results with this strategy. It worked really well early in the season and slowly faded and team figured out how to better punish their soft interior.

This can work as an argument for or against Kessler. On one hand, he's more valuable to his team. Jalen bring a skill set that OKC already has plenty of. Shai is an even better version of Williams in terms of interior scoring and playmaking, and Giddey is also a strong scorer/playmaker. But being rare on a team is often just as much about roster construction. If Utah had Daniel Gafford instead of Kelly Olynyk... how much would we care about Kessler? He's in a perfect situation for his value to shine. It's Russ being an on/off god when the Thunder didn't have any other point guards, or Joel Embiid rarely having a real backup. They're valuable because they're good, but the on/off stuff I think can get a bit overstated when its used as an indicator of inherent value.

[Dutchball97]

When you're looking at these metrics in a vacuum, how much more willing are you to curve / adjust your stance for context behind why the data may be the way it is? (Kessler playing 23 MPG vs. 30 for Williams, one facing benches more often than the other).

I sort of addressed that in my initial comment. Sure Kessler isn't playing as much as Banchero and Williams but that's mostly because of Kessler starting out with limited minutes. As the season progressed Kessler secured a starting role and has been playing over 30 mpg more often than not the second half of the season. If any of these metrics were closer it'd definitely be likely for one of the guys playing big minutes all season to take the lead but as it stands I don't think you can write off Kessler's standout statistical performance to something like that.

I've said it before: I think any +/- derived numbers for Jalen Williams is pretty corrupted by 300 minutes of Poku and being the primary guy when Shai (their best and most impactful player) is out.

I also think that Kessler's on/off advantages are for the very obvious reason that he's a skill outlier in Utah. Amongst the Utah frontcourt players (Markannen, Olynyk, and formerly Vando), Kessler is the only source of rim protection. When he's not on the floor, Utah has completely punted on rim protection. They've had mixed results with this strategy. It worked really well early in the season and slowly faded and team figured out how to better punish their soft interior.

This can work as an argument for or against Kessler. On one hand, he's more valuable to his team. Jalen bring a skill set that OKC already has plenty of. Shai is an even better version of Williams in terms of interior scoring and playmaking, and Giddey is also a strong scorer/playmaker. But being rare on a team is often just as much about roster construction. If Utah had Daniel Gafford instead of Kelly Olynyk... how much would we care about Kessler? He's in a perfect situation for his value to shine. It's Russ being an on/off god when the Thunder didn't have any other point guards, or Joel Embiid rarely having a real backup. They're valuable because they're good, but the on/off stuff I think can get a bit overstated when its used as an indicator of inherent value.

Definitely something worth taking into account. I'm personally critical of using +-/on-off type of stats without properly looking at the context. It's worth noting that part of Kessler's impact comes from simply being the only good center on the roster but I do think it's also important that he's doing really well in his role too because without the "him being actually any good" part it wouldn't matter much for his on/off that his back-ups aren't good either. He doesn't shoot much but when he does he scores efficiently, he grabs a lot of rebounds and especially offensive rebounds, his blocks per game are among the highest in the league too, hardly ever turns the ball over, doesn't seem to get into foul trouble often either.

While there is something to be said for Kessler being in a pretty ideal position and maybe not looking as spectacular in a differnt situation, it doesn't change to me that he's having the best season out of all the rookies right now. I'm also not sure if Jalen Williams is in a particularly bad situation himself. He's the 3rd or 4th option among starters and gets time having more primacy with bench units. It's not quite the same situation as Banchero being expected to be 1B from day 1.

[Doctor MJ]

I sort of addressed that in my initial comment. Sure Kessler isn't playing as much as Banchero and Williams but that's mostly because of Kessler starting out with limited minutes. As the season progressed Kessler secured a starting role and has been playing over 30 mpg more often than not the second half of the season. If any of these metrics were closer it'd definitely be likely for one of the guys playing big minutes all season to take the lead but as it stands I don't think you can write off Kessler's standout statistical performance to something like that.

I've said it before: I think any +/- derived numbers for Jalen Williams is pretty corrupted by 300 minutes of Poku and being the primary guy when Shai (their best and most impactful player) is out.

I also think that Kessler's on/off advantages are for the very obvious reason that he's a skill outlier in Utah. Amongst the Utah frontcourt players (Markannen, Olynyk, and formerly Vando), Kessler is the only source of rim protection. When he's not on the floor, Utah has completely punted on rim protection. They've had mixed results with this strategy. It worked really well early in the season and slowly faded and team figured out how to better punish their soft interior.

This can work as an argument for or against Kessler. On one hand, he's more valuable to his team. Jalen bring a skill set that OKC already has plenty of. Shai is an even better version of Williams in terms of interior scoring and playmaking, and Giddey is also a strong scorer/playmaker. But being rare on a team is often just as much about roster construction. If Utah had Daniel Gafford instead of Kelly Olynyk... how much would we care about Kessler? He's in a perfect situation for his value to shine. It's Russ being an on/off god when the Thunder didn't have any other point guards, or Joel Embiid rarely having a real backup. They're valuable because they're good, but the on/off stuff I think can get a bit overstated when its used as an indicator of inherent value.

Definitely something worth taking into account. I'm personally critical of using +-/on-off type of stats without properly looking at the context. It's worth noting that part of Kessler's impact comes from simply being the only good center on the roster but I do think it's also important that he's doing really well in his role too because without the "him being actually any good" part it wouldn't matter much for his on/off that his back-ups aren't good either. He doesn't shoot much but when he does he scores efficiently, he grabs a lot of rebounds and especially offensive rebounds, his blocks per game are among the highest in the league too, hardly ever turns the ball over, doesn't seem to get into foul trouble often either.

While there is something to be said for Kessler being in a pretty ideal position and maybe not looking as spectacular in a differnt situation, it doesn't change to me that he's having the best season out of all the rookies right now. I'm also not sure if Jalen Williams is in a particularly bad situation himself. He's the 3rd or 4th option among starters and gets time having more primacy with bench units. It's not quite the same situation as Banchero being expected to be 1B from day 1.

Yeah the whole "his backups just aren't that good" critique to me doesn't really resonate when talking about rookies, because in general, rookies are the ones giving others on their team positive On/Off by the good fortunate of them not having to fit in around a kid who doesn't know what he's doing. So point for Kessler there by my count.

On the other hand, it would give me more confidence in Kessler if the Jazz defense was actually good when he was out there instead of just "less bad".

[jazzfan1971]

Holy high bar batman. You want a rookie to make a bottom 5 defense into a good defense all by himself??

[Doctor MJ]

Holy high bar batman. You want a rookie to make a bottom 5 defense into a good defense all by himself??

I didn't say I'd refuse to vote for him if he didn't, just that I'd have more confidence if he did.

Worth mentioning Nerlens Noel's rookie season given this tangent.

76ers the year before Noel played: 26th in DRtg
76ers in Noel's rookie season: 13th in DRtg
76ers in Noel's rookie season with him on the court: 5th in DRtg
76ers in Noel's rookie season with him off the court: 25th in DRtg

So yeah, it can be done by a rookie with that rookie still never amounting to anything afterward, and it makes me cautious.

(In Noel's defense, it's entirely possible his career goes very differently if his team didn't draft Jahlil Okafor the next year and proceed to treat him like a NBA franchise player instead of a guy who in the past year mid-prime has played in China and two different G-League teams. To say nothing of what might have happened had he not signed with Klutch.)

[jazzfan1971]

Well. That's not passing the sniff test to me. I suapect, without evidence, that something else was going on to produce those numbers.

[AEnigma]

Holy high bar batman. You want a rookie to make a bottom 5 defense into a good defense all by himself??

I didn't say I'd refuse to vote for him if he didn't, just that I'd have more confidence if he did.

Worth mentioning Nerlens Noel's rookie season given this tangent.

76ers the year before Noel played: 26th in DRtg
76ers in Noel's rookie season: 13th in DRtg
76ers in Noel's rookie season with him on the court: 5th in DRtg
76ers in Noel's rookie season with him off the court: 25th in DRtg

So yeah, it can be done by a rookie with that rookie still never amounting to anything afterward, and it makes me cautious.

(In Noel's defense, it's entirely possible his career goes very differently if his team didn't draft Jahlil Okafor the next year and proceed to treat him like a NBA franchise player instead of a guy who in the past year mid-prime has played in China and two different G-League teams. To say nothing of what might have happened had he not signed with Klutch.)

Not seeing this as a particularly productive comparison.

1. Noel was playing for an abject team even when he was on the court. Kessler is not.

2. Noel was a poor scorer with “negative offensive impact” by raw on/off. Kessler is an efficient scorer with positive offensive impact by raw on/off.

3. Noel’s minutes were heavily tied to other defence-first (or defence-only) players. The teammates with whom he shared the most minutes were, in descending order: Luc Mbah a Moute, Robert Covington, Michael Carter-Williams, Hollis Thompson, K.J. McDaniels, JaKarr Sampson, and Jerami Grant — all of whom (at that point) only had value as defenders. The main 76ers rotation had a massive defensive skew. Kessler, on the other hand, has played primarily with poor (at best middling) defenders and until the trade deadline was almost completely staggered with Jarred Vanderbilt (and also largely staggered with Mike Conley, who even with a physical decline is still a defensively intelligent on-court presence).

Defence is tough to assess in small samples, so I understand being reticent to crown Kessler. Still, that point does not necessitate a comparison with the rookie starting centre for a -9 SRS team.

[Doctor MJ]

Well. That's not passing the sniff test to me. I suapect, without evidence, that something else was going on to produce those numbers.

Honestly I'm just giving an example of the thing you said was unreasonable to expect which also happens to be the analogue ROY comparison I've already mentioned in the thread. I'm not actually trying to make a Noel > Kessler argument.

ftr, Noel's raw Defensive On/Off and DRAPM in '14-15 is very similar to Kessler, and Kessler was doing it on a more competitive team.

But let me ask: When you say "not passing the sniff" test, are you simply talking about how impressive the initial stats I posted appeared to look, or is it a statement about Noel not actually being that good. If the former, I'd say you're right, if the latter, this is where I'd urge caution in getting excited about the new guy. Noel was seen as a huge defensive prospect from high school to college through this rookie season when he was still younger than Kessler - a considerably more minor prospect - is now. While I'd expect Kessler to have a better career than how Noel's ended up being, I don't think Noel's career collapse was really about scouts being incorrect about him so much as shifts to the game making him not actually being a franchise anchor despite being a "defensive anchor". Once you lose that stature and teams don't build around you, there's so much luck involved.

[Colbinii]

Well. That's not passing the sniff test to me. I suapect, without evidence, that something else was going on to produce those numbers.

I think you should be careful when questions are raised, someone answers with evidence, you provide pushback on said evidence, more evidence is then provided and your response is "That's not passing the sniff test to me."

But yeah, I think good players can make a bad defense average when on the court.

Rudy Gobert had a Defensive On/Off of...wait for it...-12.7 in his 2021 campaign while the two surrounding years were around -7 Defensive On/Off. Garnett typically made the Timberwolves ~ Top 10 defenses [or higher] with him on the court and close to dead-last defenses without him. Draymond Green's 2016 campaign is identical to Goberts with a -12.7 Defensive On/Off. Even someone like Covington was posting a -7 to -8 Defensive On/off with the 76ers prior to his departure to Minnesota.

The thing is, all these guys weren't just raising bad defenses to mediocre defenses, they were raising bad defenses to good/great defenses.

Take a look at Brook Lopez for example--the Bucks go from an average defense without him to best-in-class with him, on a similar On/Off Net-Split as Walker Kessler [-5.3 for Lopez].

With regards to your actual post "That's not passing the sniff test to me", what exactly isn't passing the sniff test? Noel was a significantly better prospect than Kessler coming out of college. He was more athletic and was seen as a DPOY-level prospect [assuming he hit his ceiling]. He had all the tools to be a DPOY with his length, size and mobility. He averaged 1.8 steals/1.9 blocks as a rookie.

As for variables or causes, since you don't want to do the work yourself, I will do it for you as I have ample time today [PTO rollover expiring end of March]. Noel played just 56% of his minutes with Covington [a good defender but in year 2 in 2015] and played less than half of his minutes with MCW [which explains why MCW has the largest Defensive On/Off on the team--all his minutes were with Noel--well 70%].

If you have time, sift through that 76ers roster, it's atrocious [as are most 18-win team rosters]. But, don't be fooled by the numbers and thinking they aren't real--Noel was a world-class defensive prospect at just 20 years old.

[jazzfan1971]

Well. That's not passing the sniff test to me. I suapect, without evidence, that something else was going on to produce those numbers.

I think you should be careful when questions are raised, someone answers with evidence, you provide pushback on said evidence, more evidence is then provided and your response is "That's not passing the sniff test to me."

But yeah, I think good players can make a bad defense average when on the court.

Rudy Gobert had a Defensive On/Off of...wait for it...-12.7 in his 2021 campaign while the two surrounding years were around -7 Defensive On/Off. Garnett typically made the Timberwolves ~ Top 10 defenses [or higher] with him on the court and close to dead-last defenses without him. Draymond Green's 2016 campaign is identical to Goberts with a -12.7 Defensive On/Off. Even someone like Covington was posting a -7 to -8 Defensive On/off with the 76ers prior to his departure to Minnesota.

The thing is, all these guys weren't just raising bad defenses to mediocre defenses, they were raising bad defenses to good/great defenses.

Take a look at Brook Lopez for example--the Bucks go from an average defense without him to best-in-class with him, on a similar On/Off Net-Split as Walker Kessler [-5.3 for Lopez].

With regards to your actual post "That's not passing the sniff test to me", what exactly isn't passing the sniff test? Noel was a significantly better prospect than Kessler coming out of college. He was more athletic and was seen as a DPOY-level prospect [assuming he hit his ceiling]. He had all the tools to be a DPOY with his length, size and mobility. He averaged 1.8 steals/1.9 blocks as a rookie.

As for variables or causes, since you don't want to do the work yourself, I will do it for you as I have ample time today [PTO rollover expiring end of March]. Noel played just 56% of his minutes with Covington [a good defender but in year 2 in 2015] and played less than half of his minutes with MCW [which explains why MCW has the largest Defensive On/Off on the team--all his minutes were with Noel--well 70%].

If you have time, sift through that 76ers roster, it's atrocious [as are most 18-win team rosters]. But, don't be fooled by the numbers and thinking they aren't real--Noel was a world-class defensive prospect at just 20 years old.

Well, perhaps you are right. My feeling was that no rookie could turn a bad defense into a great one. Rookies just don't tend to be that good defensively, and no matter how good can't guard the entire floor at once. But, I guess what might be happening is that the difference between bottom 5 and top 5 isn't that big. So, just adding one good defender can swing things. I would have guessed that the difference between the two is more stark.

Further I don't like on/off stats. For me they often tell a different story than you might imagine. For instance you might have a team with a competent set of defensive starters, but the wheels fall off when the backups come in. If a rookie comes in and plays with the starters his on/off numbers are going to look pretty good. If he plays with the backups not so much.

I was guessing that Noel was the beneficiary of some of that. Just guessing mind you. I'm not as savvy as you guys with the stats. I don't know where you are looking up some of these. I was able to look up their DLebron. And Kessler is a fair amount higher than Noel. Something like 3.5 to 3. Maybe that's part of why my sniff test is off.

Because in my mind Kessler makes a bad defensive team into a decent even good one. But, certainly not great. I think that the Jazz guards are just too poor for the team to be a great defensive team whether you have Gobert, Draymond, Duncan, Ben, Mutumbo or Kessler at center. Conley, Sexton, Clarkson, THT, Beasley, Or whoever else the Jazz have trotted out at the guard positions just aren't providing much resistance.

I don't think that changes if you swap him out for Noel either. I think given that his defensive lebron is better than Noels that you might not even get as much improvement if you made that swap. (hard to know)

Further if you like Lebron, Kessler has a positive 3.14 compared to Noel's negative .77. So, if you like that stat, Kessler is having a much better year than Noel did his rookie year.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Jesus Christ I did not realize how dominant Embiids been as of late lol

[jazzfan1971]

So, during the RS, for POY/OPOY/DPOY, I tend to look hard at +/- stats, and +/- based stats. These stats aren't necessarily that helpful for giving clear information for more typical players, but if you're an outlier in your value, it's strange if I can't see you standing out in this way. To point to some specific things: Raw +/- & On/Off stats from nba.com or bkref.com, RAPM and luck-adjusted RAPM from nbashotcharts.com - source can change but that's the one I'm using right now, and then the more elaborate all-in-ones that do that pretty well, Estimated +/ (from https://dunksandthrees.com/) and LEBRON (from https://www.bball-index.com/) are my go-tos right now.

I decided to take a look at EPM today. And holy crap it likes Jazz players. It has Markkanen over Mitchell AND Kessler over Gobert. I'm not sure I agree with either. So I looked at LEBRON. That feels a little better, but it still has Kessler at #21. And that seems crazy too! But it has Markkanen pretty low IMHO at 38. I feel like some of these all in one stats tend to like bigs more than I would like.

What are your thoughts on RPM? I know it's a black box sort of thing, but the ranks of players there seem to feel pretty good to me. Who knows, maybe they do a sort then just move guys aroudn until things 'feel' good? Whatever the reason I like how RPM has placed Mitchell, Gobert, Kessler, and Markkanen more than Iike how EPM and LEBRON have done.

[Jaivl]

What are your thoughts on RPM? I know it's a black box sort of thing, but the ranks of players there seem to feel pretty good to me. Who knows, maybe they do a sort then just move guys aroudn until things 'feel' good?

We kind of know they do that, yes.

Real Plus-Minus (RPM) was recently updated by the ESPN Sports Analytics Team. This new version of RPM was inspired by the original RPM created by Jeremias Engelmann, in consultation with Steve Ilardi, and now uses advanced box statistics derived from player tracking data, along with a slightly modified statistical model.