Eye test problem: Dirk Nowitzki.

[jazzfan1971]

So, folks often claim that stats are only for geeks and you should just use your eyes.

But, my eyes say that Dirk was not as good of a player as I see him ranked. I thought he had one amazing playoff run, sure. But, if you take that out of the equation I never thought he was particularly scary as an opponent.

There were probably at least 4-5 other bigs playing at any given point of his career that I thought were better than him. Maybe 10-12.

Lets say his peak was 2005. I would have rather faced Dirk than
2005
Lebron
Duncan
KG
Shaq

Probably would have rather faced him than
Rasheed
Ben
Amare
Mourning

And that's just bigs!

And I think this is probably true of Dirk's entire career. Seems like he was never a top 5 guy to me. More of a top 20 player. But, when you talk to people they have him as an All time top 20 player. And I just don't get it.

Seems like he was just a very good player for most of his career. Then once he retired everyone decided he was an all time great.

[VanWest82]

Dirk's peak season was 2011. His impact was on par with the best in the league that year. The difference was how he developed out his post game behind that one-legged fadeaway. He would've deservingly won MVP if he'd played more games.

I don't know what part of the eye test was lacking that season. Everyone remembers the playoffs but he was unstoppable all year,. Throwing out 2011 would be like throwing out 2021 for Giannis when he got better off ball or 2003 for Duncan because he needed more help in his other title years. We don't just get to do that.

[GeorgeMarcus]

I respectfully yet adamantly disagree... No way would anybody want to face Dirk over Sheed, Ben, Amare, or Zo. The Mavericks were so good for so long and there was only one common denominator throughout.

[jazzfan1971]

Ok, even in 2011 I don't think he was a top 5 guy. But, close. I wasn't particularily scared of Love or Griffin that year either. But, definitely have Lebron, CP3, and Dwight as guys I was scared of and who I consider a good tier above Dirk/Love/Griffin

[tsherkin]

Probably would have rather faced him than
Rasheed
Ben
Amare
Mourning

Really?


Rasheed was pretty tepid, especially. Of everyone on this list, he belongs the least, IMHO. He was a very good man defender, specifically in the post. He wasn't a stunner on the wing, he wasn't a great rebounder. Was a decent passer for a big but nothing game-changing. He fit well into an ensemble when his temper wasn't getting in the way of his utility. He was not a stunning scoring threat. Ben Wallace needed to be part of an ensemble cast to be relevant, otherwise what he brought to the game wasn't enough. Amazing defender, outstanding rebounder, but you didn't fear him, you feared the Pistons. And he couldn't a perimeter-focused big anyway.

Amare was very good on offense, acceptable on the glass and a turnstile on defense. He didn't bring anything to the table which Dirk didn't except aesthetics.

Dirk was more efficient than all of them, and scored as much or more than any of them, including Amare, especially come the playoffs.

Mourning's defense makes him interesting, but he wasn't that hot on O and his passing was not good, charitably speaking. Still, he was a decent enough rebounder and a particularly good defender, so coupled to his ability to be a usually-competent scoring threat, that makes an interesting argument. Also, 02-12, he was a 26.2 ppg scorer in the playoffs. Dude was an electric scoring threat in the playoffs, and a 58.4% TS guy with range from the PF slot when both of those things were mind-boggling.

I realize you're looking at this from an eye-test POV, but again, we're looking at Sheed who was talked about more for potential than for actual impact. Zo who was a good example of why you shouldn't force shots to a post scorer who isn't that good a passer (or an uber-elite scorer, that aside), Ben Wallace (who was a fantastic player but whose impact mattered more with a significant spread of talent) and Amare Stoudemire, who was electric to watch but had less actual impact on games (even just eying how defenses handled him, like when San Antonio let him iso Tim Duncan at will and just beat the Suns by exploiting his defense and dominating the boards).

[jazzfan1971]

I respectfully yet adamantly disagree... No way would anybody want to face Dirk over Sheed, Ben, Amare, Zo. The Mavericks were so good for so long and there was only one common denominator throughout.

I think this is the eye test part. I would have rather faced Dirk. And I would guess a lot of Jazz fans would be with me.

[jazzfan1971]

I realize you're looking at this from an eye-test POV, but again, we're looking at Sheed who was talked about more for potential than for actual impact.

To me Sheed was one of the most underrated players around. There were ever only a handful of players I thought could defend Malone. Ever. He was one. And he gave pretty good on the other side. Was a bit of a nightmare matchup for me. Dirk couldn't guard Malone and Malone did jsut fine guarding Dirk.

I kind of have him in that Duncan/KG group where you knew you might lose the matchup and you'd need other players to pick up the slack.

[dygaction]

I respectfully yet adamantly disagree... No way would anybody want to face Dirk over Sheed, Ben, Amare, Zo. The Mavericks were so good for so long and there was only one common denominator throughout.

I think this is the eye test part. I would have rather faced Dirk. And I would guess a lot of Jazz fans would be with me.

Perk would agree with you

[jazzfan1971]

I respectfully yet adamantly disagree... No way would anybody want to face Dirk over Sheed, Ben, Amare, Zo. The Mavericks were so good for so long and there was only one common denominator throughout.

I think this is the eye test part. I would have rather faced Dirk. And I would guess a lot of Jazz fans would be with me.

Perk would agree with you

Ok. Lets take the eye test out of it. Do we have an objective measure we can use instead? I don't mean end of season awards, Im' talking about statistical evidence that Nowitzki deserves to be thought of as highly as he is.

[tsherkin]

To me Sheed was one of the most underrated players around. There were ever only a handful of players I thought could defend Malone. Ever. He was one. And he gave pretty good on the other side. Was a bit of a nightmare matchup for me. Dirk couldn't guard Malone and Malone did jsut fine guarding Dirk.

Underrated? No, unless we're speaking of potential. He had all kinds of tools, but he didn't ever really put them into practice to an effective degree.

We have some pretty clear and objective ways to evaluate scoring... and even just comparison between him and his peers reveals that he just didn't stand up in that regard. Prior to 2000, he was pretty solid, but over the breadth of his career, he was a fairly uninspiring scorer and really not worth a lot of possessions. As a big who had some shooting ability, particularly later in his career, he had some utility for creating spacing. Like a role player. Like Sam Perkins. 02 and later, he had a competent 3 and notable volume (especially for the time). That had value.

He certainly wasn't a dominant rebounder; he boxed out pretty well, so there's some trade off there, but he certainly wasn't dominant in that aspect of the game. He was a good passer for his position, but that went only so far.

Again, he was a quality man defender. Very good, even, but man D from a big meant only so much even in his own time. He was a pretty good team defender, but not an ATG-level player in that regard.

In each element of the game, you can see he was pretty good but nothing special. Underperforming his physical and skill tools. He managed to be relevant and useful to his team, but he was not an anchor at either end of the floor. He was a solid complementary piece. Portland and Detroit were both ensemble casts, which worked out well for him. They couldn't get over the hump in Portland, but he found a niche that worked very well for him with the Pistons.

Meantime, as far as Malone guarding Nowitzki, they really only faced one another the once in the playoffs and he didn't appear to have issues with him in the RS. Dirk put up 23.8 ppg on 58.8% TS in that series, was the scoring leader in two of the games and was playing on a team earlier in his career where he was sharing the ball with Finley (who was himself an All-Star and a 21.5 ppg scorer that regular season still, and only scored -0.3 ppg compared to Dirk in the RS).

So that's not really a super great way to look at the matchup, again IMHO.

[jazzfan1971]

Portland and Detroit were both ensemble casts, which worked out well for him. They couldn't get over the hump in Portland, but he found a niche that worked very well for him with the Pistons.

I think he was the straw that stirred the drink in Detroit.

Another eye test problem I guess. I really liked Sheed as a player. So, maybe it's not that he's under-rated but I simply over rate him.

[Texas Chuck]

I mean no offense, but check your eyes, brah. I mean come on with Zo or Sheed. Dirk was a flat out killer. I know he said the city of Utah one time and I know he got ejected for a game from hurting some white player on the Jazz whose name is currently escaping me but this ain't it.

I know Jazz fans were the only fanbase to boo Dirk, not even the Heat or Spurs fans did, they respected him, but still? You aren't over this still? He was a kid from another country when he made that city comment, seems silly to hold a grudge over that.

[jazzfan1971]

I mean no offense, but check your eyes, brah. I mean come on with Zo or Sheed. Dirk was a flat out killer. I know he said the city of Utah one time and I know he got ejected for a game from hurting some white player whose name is currently escaping me but this ain't it.

Obviously it is an eye issue. I'm hoping someone has an objective way of looking at it.

[Texas Chuck]

I mean no offense, but check your eyes, brah. I mean come on with Zo or Sheed. Dirk was a flat out killer. I know he said the city of Utah one time and I know he got ejected for a game from hurting some white player whose name is currently escaping me but this ain't it.

Obviously it is an eye issue. I'm hoping someone has an objective way of looking at it.

I'm not the guy for that as I'm an admitted Dirk stan. But there is tons of objective evidence to his greatness that I'll let someone without my bias provide so it doesn't get dismissed because its from me.

But you could start with how he absolutely blows Mailman away as a playoff performer. And I'm assuming you think Malone isn't an overrated stiff.

[jazzfan1971]

I mean no offense, but check your eyes, brah. I mean come on with Zo or Sheed. Dirk was a flat out killer. I know he said the city of Utah one time and I know he got ejected for a game from hurting some white player whose name is currently escaping me but this ain't it.

Obviously it is an eye issue. I'm hoping someone has an objective way of looking at it.

I'm not the guy for that as I'm an admitted Dirk stan. But there is tons of objective evidence to his greatness that I'll let someone without my bias provide so it doesn't get dismissed because its from me.

But you could start with how he absolutely blows Mailman away as a playoff performer. And I'm assuming you think Malone isn't an overrated stiff.

I tend to think of players more for their regular season performances. Larger samples more evenly comparable.

[VanWest82]

Obviously it is an eye issue. I'm hoping someone has an objective way of looking at it.

Dirk was super talented. He closed out the Spurs in 06, 09, 10, and took one off them before getting hurt in 03. He arguably had more success vs. Duncan than anyone not named Shaq. Start there.

I sort of get the inclination that he was a bit overrated during his 00s stretch - I disagree, but I get it. He was a little soft. But once he started one-legged fadeawaying dudes it was over. You couldn't stick someone like Marion or SJax on him anymore. Bron wouldn't even guard him in the Finals, and yeah that was Spo but Bron didn't force issue - he wanted no part of Dirk. No one wanted any part of that version of Dirk because he was embarassing guys.

[jazzfan1971]

Obviously it is an eye issue. I'm hoping someone has an objective way of looking at it.

Dirk was super talented. He closed out the Spurs in 06, 09, 10, and took one off them before getting hurt in 03. He arguably had more success vs. Duncan than anyone not named Shaq. Start there.

I sort of get the inclination that he was a bit overrated during his 00s stretch - I disagree, but I get it. He was a little soft. But once he started one-legged fadeawaying dudes it was over. You couldn't stick someone like Marion or SJax on him anymore. Bron wouldn't even guard him in the Finals, and yeah that was Spo but Bron didn't force issue - he wanted no part of Dirk. No one wanted any part of that version of Dirk because he was embarassing guys.

Factish. A lot of small sample size and assertions. I was hoping for something more like data over his career vs. other players data over their careers.

[tsherkin]

I think he was the straw that stirred the drink in Detroit.

He fit very well in Detroit. They succeeded based on a distributed model that was very different from classical team models, but yes, he was an important part of their squad for sure. But you could say that about multiple players. You remove Ben or Chauncey or Rip and they don't succeed either.

Another eye test problem I guess. I really liked Sheed as a player. So, maybe it's not that he's under-rated but I simply over rate him.

Sheed was a good player. He wasn't a great player. He fit well into an ensemble cast where he wasn't asked to shoulder a franchise-level burden, because he couldn't handle it, despite his tools. No harm in enjoying him, he was a talented guy and fun to watch when he wasn't being a tool. He was part of very successful teams in both Portland and Detroit, and he adapted his game as his career evolved. He was definitely worse than Nowitzki, but that doesn't mean he wasn't a valuable contributor to his teams.

[VanWest82]

Obviously it is an eye issue. I'm hoping someone has an objective way of looking at it.

Dirk was super talented. He closed out the Spurs in 06, 09, 10, and took one off them before getting hurt in 03. He arguably had more success vs. Duncan than anyone not named Shaq. Start there.

I sort of get the inclination that he was a bit overrated during his 00s stretch - I disagree, but I get it. He was a little soft. But once he started one-legged fadeawaying dudes it was over. You couldn't stick someone like Marion or SJax on him anymore. Bron wouldn't even guard him in the Finals, and yeah that was Spo but Bron didn't force issue - he wanted no part of Dirk. No one wanted any part of that version of Dirk because he was embarassing guys.

Factish. A lot of small sample size and assertions. I was hoping for something more like data over his career vs. other players data over their careers.

Well he comfortably led the league in RAPM in 2011: http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=1977834319

2011 was also his career best in FG%, and we can see some evidence in the shot data of how this more aggressive version of Dirk was dominating in the post. He shot a career high (up to that point) in FG% at the rim 71%, and his attempts in the 3-10 ft range increased from 8% of his shots to over 13% with his FG% in that area jumping to 48%. The data isn't there to support him being more aggressive in other areas, like rebounding or shot blocking, but it is there to support his increased level of post offense to match the eye test.

It made him a three level scorer. I don't know why he seemed only able to get to this level for one year but it did happen.

[jazzfan1971]

Dirk was super talented. He closed out the Spurs in 06, 09, 10, and took one off them before getting hurt in 03. He arguably had more success vs. Duncan than anyone not named Shaq. Start there.

I sort of get the inclination that he was a bit overrated during his 00s stretch - I disagree, but I get it. He was a little soft. But once he started one-legged fadeawaying dudes it was over. You couldn't stick someone like Marion or SJax on him anymore. Bron wouldn't even guard him in the Finals, and yeah that was Spo but Bron didn't force issue - he wanted no part of Dirk. No one wanted any part of that version of Dirk because he was embarassing guys.

Factish. A lot of small sample size and assertions. I was hoping for something more like data over his career vs. other players data over their careers.

Well he comfortably led the league in RAPM in 2011: http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=1977834319

2011 was also his career best in FG%, and we can see some evidence in the shot data of how this more aggressive version of Dirk was dominating in the post. He shot a career high (up to that point) in FG% at the rim 71%, and his attempts in the 3-10 ft range increased from 8% of his shots to over 13% with his FG% in that area jumping to 48%. The data isn't there to support him being more aggressive in other areas, like rebounding or shot blocking, but it is there to support his increased level of post offense to match the eye test.

It made him a three level scorer. I don't know why he seemed only able to get to this level for one year but it did happen.

I"m perfectly content using RAPM as THE objective measure. Now how to we use it to compare careers?