Rui Hachimura 2.0

[DCZards]

leswizards, regarding the players you named above—Holiday, Bertans, Bryant, Neto, Dinwiddie and KCP.

Holiday, Bertans and Neto have done little to nothing since leaving the Zards. Hard to say they’ve “performed well.” All three are getting less playing time with their current teams than they did with the Zards. Is Unseld still stunting their development/performance?

Both Dinwiddie and Bryant were just coming back from serious knee injuries. That impacted their performances much more than coaching.

So the only one I’ll grant you is KCP…and how much of his improved play is sharing the court with Joker (who, btw, gives Wes Jr. credit for his development)… and not coaching.

[leswizards]

leswizards, regarding the players you named above—Holiday, Bertans, Bryant, Neto, Dinwiddie and KCP.

Holiday, Bertans and Neto have done little to nothing since leaving the Zards. Hard to say they’ve “performed well.” All three are getting less playing time with their current teams than they did with the Zards. Is Unseld still stunting their development/performance?

Both Dinwiddie and Bryant were just coming back from serious knee injuries. That impacted their performances much more than coaching.

So the only one I’ll grant you is KCP…and how much of his improved play is sharing the court with Joker (who, btw, gives Wes Jr. credit for his development)… and not coaching.

We can agree to disagree, but for me when I see the same thing over and over again, I just question how much of it is a trend and how much of it is coincidental.

I mean we aren’t just talking about a bad season, we are talking about career lows. Will Barton had career lows too, but he is looking awful in Toronto (so maybe his career is done). Taj is having career lows too, but maybe his career is done too. Rui is playing better in la than he did for wuj, but he still isn’t that good a player.

All this may not bother you, but to me it worrisome, then when you add in that Kyle Kuzma is awful but leads the team in minutes and mpg. And, 6 of the 7 worst wizards (with at least 250 minutes) ranked by ortg have 6 of the 7 highest usage and shoot twice as many 3 point shots as 7 highest ranked wizards (with at least 250 mpg) ranked by ortg, I think have legitimate concerns.

But we can agree to disagree.

[DCZards]

Actually, we don't totally disagree. Some of your criticism regarding Unseld, including as it relates to Kuzma, is on target. And you can count me among those who hate Wes Jr.'s predictable end-of-game offense with Beal going iso and, personally, I'd like to see Wes go after the refs a little more when they make an especially bad call. Does Unseld even have a technical?

But the often piss poor play of the Zards has a lot more to do with the talent on the court than with the coaching, imo.

[payitforward]

One guy who definitely went downhill this year was Will Barton. OTOH:

1. So far he's even worse with Toronto. I think he's just washed.
2. His best years were all playing w/ Jokic (& being coached by WUJ).

KCP is having a nice year for Denver, it's true: but it's on far lower usage than as a Wizard last year -- the lowest usage of his career in fact.

Moreover, the difference between this year & last for KCP is within the variation range of his multiple years with the same coaching staff on the Lakers.

For that matter, the only significant difference this year is in KCP's 3-point % (wch is at a career high). But, he took 1/3 more 3-point attempts as a Wizard. More wide open attempts this year as well, given the attention Jokic draws. The drop in his 2-point attempts is even greater: he took those at almost a 40% higher rate as a Wizard than he is for Denver this year.

Still deserving of praise, of course -- I'm not taking anything away from KCP. &, overall, for that matter, his numbers as a Wizard were almost exactly at his career average.

Kind of a pointless discussion, really: 16 guys who' played minutes for the Nuggets in '20-21 (WUJ's last year there) are no longer with the team. Or, seen from the other direction, 12 guys who have played for them this year weren't with the team 2 years ago. & Michael Porter Jr's best year in the NBA was when WUJ was in Denver.

All NBA players have better years & worse years -- these guys aren't machines! But the arc of their productivity remains more or less flat once you account for the early development years & the late declining years.

Coaches just don't have all that much effect on individual player productivity. Of course, I'm sure it can happen! It's not totally inconceivable. But, I can't find anything like that related to WUJ.

[dckingsfan]

Coaches just don't have all that much effect on individual player productivity...

I would disagree with this point. I think that coaches absolutely have an impact on individual player productivity.

Example: If you make Porzingis the focus of your offense and screen down for him so that he is constantly in a mismatch - his usage and productivity will go up.

Counter example: The coach would not have an impact on Deni missing wide open 3s. His teammates will know this and his usage will go down.

[Kanyewest]

Coaches just don't have all that much effect on individual player productivity...

I would disagree with this point. I think that coaches absolutely have an impact on individual player productivity.

Example: If you make Porzingis the focus of your offense and screen down for him so that he is constantly in a mismatch - his usage and productivity will go up.

Counter example: The coach would not have an impact on Deni missing wide open 3s. His teammates will know this and his usage will go down.

Speaking of porzingis, it looks like Wes has made him better.

But Beal is worse under Unseld than Brooks-although I'm unsure what percentage I would attribute it to coaching vs Beal's health.

[dckingsfan]

Coaches just don't have all that much effect on individual player productivity...

I would disagree with this point. I think that coaches absolutely have an impact on individual player productivity.

Example: If you make Porzingis the focus of your offense and screen down for him so that he is constantly in a mismatch - his usage and productivity will go up.

Counter example: The coach would not have an impact on Deni missing wide open 3s. His teammates will know this and his usage will go down.

Speaking of porzingis, it looks like Wes has made him better.

But Beal is worse under Unseld than Brooks-although I'm unsure what percentage I would attribute it to coaching vs Beal's health.

Agreed, you just can't tell with Beal given his health.

[gambitx777]

Rui might now even get a contract next year from the Lakers. Certainly not more than we offered him.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Coaches just don't have all that much effect on individual player productivity...

I would disagree with this point. I think that coaches absolutely have an impact on individual player productivity.

Example: If you make Porzingis the focus of your offense and screen down for him so that he is constantly in a mismatch - his usage and productivity will go up.

Counter example: The coach would not have an impact on Deni missing wide open 3s. His teammates will know this and his usage will go down.

I was making a different point. An empirical point. & I didn't make it nearly clear enough -- sorry.

Obviously, if a coach decides to start his 5 worst players, he is likely to make his team worse.

Similarly, if a coach decides he wants KP bringing the ball up as his PG, while he moves Monte Morris to Center, he will be making his team worse -- by making those 2 players less productive.

But, the fact is that over time, although a few of the very best coaches have a modest overall positive effect on their players' productivity (&, thereby, on team wins), & a few at the other end of the spectrum have the opposite effect, overall, most NBA coaches do not. & if you look at a player's numbers over his career, & you factor out the usual curve of development>prime>decline, you will have a hard time finding significant variations based on the coaches for whom he's played.

If I were to show you or anyone a set of annual numbers for a few randomized years of a player's career in which he played for different coaches, & you didn't know what the years were, you would hard pressed to pick out who the coach was for each of those years.

NBA head coaches are everyone of them professionals at or around the high point of their long careers. They differ, of course, but they are more or less on an even level or close. Again, there are exceptions! As in any other field there are some true "stars" -- Phil Jackson is an obvious example. Greg Popovich is another. &, no doubt, there are a few coaches at the other end of the spectrum as well.

As to WUJ, try this experiment:

In '20-21, KP was coached by Rick Carlisle. For most of '21-22 he was coached by Jason Kidd. He played 17 games under WUJ last season. This season, again, WUJ is his coach. Take a look at his per 36-minute numbers for each of those stretches, then try linking any of the variations to a change in coaches.

This year, KP is getting fewer offensive boards per 36 than he did any year in Dallas. Is that because of WUJ?
But, wait... in his time with us last year, he got MORE offensive boards than he did any year in Dallas.

Was that because of WUJ too?

KP is also posting by far the highest efg% of his career this year. Is that b/c WUJ is a great coach? Or is it, paradoxically, b/c he's a bad coach...?

You get the idea.
Players are as good as they are. Teams are as good as their players are. Coaches can't put spots on a zebra or stripes on a leopard.       

[dckingsfan]

This year, KP is getting fewer offensive boards per 36 than he did any year in Dallas. Is that because of WUJ?

But, wait... in his time with us last year, he got MORE offensive boards than he did any year in Dallas.

Was that because of WUJ too?

KP is also posting by far the highest efg% of his career this year. Is that b/c WUJ is a great coach? Or is it, paradoxically, b/c he's a bad coach...?

So, yes to all. WUJ has moved KP further out from the basket and has made him a focal point of the offense.

So, it would be expected that he would get fewer offensive rebounds. Also, yes to efg%, WUJ has been making a point of screening down on his man to get him easier looks.

I think it is understated how important rotations and schema are to a player's production.

Another counter example would be that you want to try to maximize the number of 3 point attempts by your best 3 point shooter. Should Kuzma be getting the most 3-point attempts when he is shooting miserably from that distance?

[FAH1223]

Rui had a DNP today in LeBron's return.

[leswizards]

Coaches just don't have all that much effect on individual player productivity...

I would disagree with this point. I think that coaches absolutely have an impact on individual player productivity.

If I were to show you or anyone a set of annual numbers for a few randomized years of a player's career in which he played for different coaches, & you didn't know what the years were, you would hard pressed to pick out who the coach was for each of those years.       

That is false. It is demonstrably false. And, I can prove it.

Is the player having a career low in drtg? If so, that is the year(s) that he played for wuj.

Does the player have more career low season’s in drtg than he played for wuj? If so, did he also have a career low in ortg in one of those seasons? If so, he played for wuj that season. If not, pick the season that his ws/48 was lower.

With those 2 rules, you can correctly predict what season players who have played for wuj 16 out of 28 times.

Only counting players who played for others coaches and who played more than 200 minutes in a season.

Edit: I guess that I should add that if you just randomly guessed, you would expect to get 4.5 out 28 seasons correct.

[gambitx777]

Rui had a DNP today in LeBron's return.

The only regret I have trading Rui is that we didn't flip Nunn for another second or the draft rights to someone.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

So, yes to all. WUJ has moved KP further out from the basket and has made him a focal point of the offense....

Except that he's taking fewer shots this year than last. Also fewer FTAs.

But, we're still talking at cross purposes. "Different strategies" are not "different coaches."

...So, it would be expected that he would get fewer offensive rebounds. Also, yes to efg%, WUJ has been making a point of screening down on his man to get him easier looks....

So we should conclude that WUJ is a good coach?

In any case, however "good/great/whatever" one thinks KP is, his overall per 40 minute numbers with the Wizards -- both this year & even a bit more in his 17 Wiz games last year -- are at a career high.

[payitforward]

I would disagree with this point. I think that coaches absolutely have an impact on individual player productivity.

If I were to show you or anyone a set of annual numbers for a few randomized years of a player's career in which he played for different coaches, & you didn't know what the years were, you would hard pressed to pick out who the coach was for each of those years.       

That is false. It is demonstrably false. And, I can prove it.

Is the player having a career low in drtg? If so, that is the year(s) that he played for wuj.

Does the player have more career low season’s in drtg than he played for wuj? If so, did he also have a career low in ortg in one of those seasons? If so, he played for wuj that season. If not, pick the season that his ws/48 was lower.

With those 2 rules, you can correctly predict what season players who have played for wuj 16 out of 28 times.

Only counting players who played for others coaches and who played more than 200 minutes in a season.

Edit: I guess that I should add that if you just randomly guessed, you would expect to get 4.5 out 28 seasons correct.

Took you off "Ignore," as I decided that it was impolite on my part to put you there.

TBH, there's no point in arguing with you, & anyway "arguing" is a poor use of one's time. Peace!

[payitforward]

We should probably abandon this thread, since Rui is gone. Or, maybe, if it's of interest for some reason, use it to keep following his career?

[leswizards]

If I were to show you or anyone a set of annual numbers for a few randomized years of a player's career in which he played for different coaches, & you didn't know what the years were, you would hard pressed to pick out who the coach was for each of those years.       

That is false. It is demonstrably false. And, I can prove it.

Is the player having a career low in drtg? If so, that is the year(s) that he played for wuj.

Does the player have more career low season’s in drtg than he played for wuj? If so, did he also have a career low in ortg in one of those seasons? If so, he played for wuj that season. If not, pick the season that his ws/48 was lower.

With those 2 rules, you can correctly predict what season players who have played for wuj 16 out of 28 times.

Only counting players who played for others coaches and who played more than 200 minutes in a season.

Edit: I guess that I should add that if you just randomly guessed, you would expect to get 4.5 out 28 seasons correct.

Took you off "Ignore," as I decided that it was impolite on my part to put you there.

TBH, there's no point in arguing with you, & anyway "arguing" is a poor use of one's time. Peace!

I don’t care whether you ignore me or not. You can’t refute my point. So, rather than attempting to refute it, you first say you are ignoring me, now you want to say you don’t want to argue. The polite thing to do is admit you were wrong.

[nate33]

I would disagree with this point. I think that coaches absolutely have an impact on individual player productivity.

If I were to show you or anyone a set of annual numbers for a few randomized years of a player's career in which he played for different coaches, & you didn't know what the years were, you would hard pressed to pick out who the coach was for each of those years.       

That is false. It is demonstrably false. And, I can prove it.

Is the player having a career low in drtg? If so, that is the year(s) that he played for wuj.

Does the player have more career low season’s in drtg than he played for wuj? If so, did he also have a career low in ortg in one of those seasons? If so, he played for wuj that season. If not, pick the season that his ws/48 was lower.

With those 2 rules, you can correctly predict what season players who have played for wuj 16 out of 28 times.

Only counting players who played for others coaches and who played more than 200 minutes in a season.

Edit: I guess that I should add that if you just randomly guessed, you would expect to get 4.5 out 28 seasons correct.

DRtg is as much a team stat as it is an individual stat. If you take Rui, and have him play the exact same defense, but put him alongside Anthony Davis, his DRtg will improve.

You may be right that there is a trend of statistical improvement for guys who leave WUJ, but DRtg is a very dicey way to make that argument. I'd be much more convinced if you could make the argument with box score based summary stats like PER, WS/48, TS% and ORtg.

[leswizards]

If I were to show you or anyone a set of annual numbers for a few randomized years of a player's career in which he played for different coaches, & you didn't know what the years were, you would hard pressed to pick out who the coach was for each of those years.       

That is false. It is demonstrably false. And, I can prove it.

Is the player having a career low in drtg? If so, that is the year(s) that he played for wuj.

Does the player have more career low season’s in drtg than he played for wuj? If so, did he also have a career low in ortg in one of those seasons? If so, he played for wuj that season. If not, pick the season that his ws/48 was lower.

With those 2 rules, you can correctly predict what season players who have played for wuj 16 out of 28 times.

Only counting players who played for others coaches and who played more than 200 minutes in a season.

Edit: I guess that I should add that if you just randomly guessed, you would expect to get 4.5 out 28 seasons correct.

DRtg is as much a team stat as it is an individual stat. If you take Rui, and have him play the exact same defense, but put him alongside Anthony Davis, his DRtg will improve.

You may be right that there is a trend of statistical improvement for guys who leave WUJ, but DRtg is a very dicey way to make that argument. I'd be much more convinced if you could make the argument with box score based summary stats like PER, WS/48, TS% and ORtg.

I respect and understand what you are saying. If I were trying to use drtg against Rui, I would say you are correct.

However, that is not what I am doing. I am saying that you can use a player’s drtg to identify when that player was coached by wuj. The fact that players consistently have a career low team dominated stat the year they played for wuj is a pretty strong indictment of wuj’s coaching.

[payitforward]

Why are we carrying on this exchange in the Rui thread? I'll move it to the WUJ thread....