Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
steph curry is one of the greatest offensive players ever. everybody agrees with the statement. and yet for most guys on that list, we have tons of high-ranking offenses to point to.
oscar: 6 #1 offenses and 2 #2 offenses in a 9 year span in cincinnati (9 out of 10 top 10 in cincy) plus 2 more #1's and a #2 and a top 5 in milwaukee (13 out of 14 top 10 in career, even scaling up to a 30 team league for some of the lower finishes)
magic: 7 #1 offenses and 2 #2 offenses in a 12 year span (12 out of 12 top 10)
jordan (edit: accidentally lumped '98 in with the 5 seasons from 91-97 and counted it all as 5, should be another top 10): 4 #1 offenses and a #2 and 2 more top 10 (7 for 11, would almost certainly be 10 for 14 if he played in '86, '94, and '95) despite having almost no offensive help except woolridge for first 5 years (several years with 0 or 1 teammates with a positive BPM, 0 or 1 teammates with a positive TS Add, jordan accounts for 80+% of the team's VORP). note that i didn't count #9 in '88 since there were only 23 teams.
nash: 6 #1 offenses and 3 #2 offenses and 5 more top 10's (14 out of 14 in big minute seasons)
lebron: no #1 or #2 offenses but 8 top 5 offenses and 3 more top 10's despite having very little offensive help for 5 years in cleveland (same general teammate stats as jordan with tons of negative BPM guys and lebron accounting for 80%+ of the VORP (even 100% one season), though gooden/big Z were way over 15 PER, and about 0.150 WS48, but not much in BPM)
jokic: 1 #2 offense and 6 more top 7 offenses (7 out of 7 after age 20 rookie season, even holding up in injury-plagued seasons).
steph: 3 #1 offenses and 1 #2 offense and 1 more top 10 offense (5 out of 12 if not including 2012 and 2020, but 5 out of 14 when including 2012 and 2020, which don't appear to have much chance of being top 10 even if steph plays, see below)
2010: 14th (rookie steph, team has positive TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for only about 1/3 of team VORP)
2011: 12th (team has slight negative TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for only about 1/3 of team VORP)
2012: 14th (steph only plays in 26 games, but team rank doesn't really move much, team has slightly positive TS Add outside of steph, doesn't seem like a top 10 finish was in the offing even if steph plays)
2013: 11th (david lee + carl landry + rookie klay doesn't seem like the worst offensive support for an already 24 year old steph, team has almost exactly 0 TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for slightly less than half of team VORP)
2014: 12th (david lee + improved 2nd year klay and 25 year old steph, team has slightly negative TS Add outside of steph, tons of +0.100 WS48 and positive BPM guys. lots of VORP is from defensive guys draymond/iggy/bogut but all are good passers, steph accounts for only 45% of team VORP).
these don't seem like nearly as dire of circumstances as some of lebron and jordan's non top-10 teams. no disastrous TS Add's from the rest of the team, steph's not accounting for all of the team's VORP like he's the only decent player on the team, a decent number of solid box score guys with upper teens PER's and ~0.150 WS48's.
then we obviously get the kerr upgrade to the system and things take off for #2, #1, #1, #3, and #1 finishes. with 3 of those seasons featuring some kevin durant guy. but since then?
2020: 30th (even if we only include steph's 5 games, they would still have a ranking of 30th, so it seems pretty certain this is a bottom 5 offense even if steph plays)
2021: 20th (team only has modestly negative TS Add outside of steph, draymond is around to run the offense, JTA and damion lee combined for about a 66 TS%, wiggins isn't the worst, steph only accounts for 59% of the team's VORP)
2022: 17th (fairly solid positive TS Add outside of steph, steph barely accounts for 25% of the team's VORP. obviously injuries keep the big 3 from playing together, but 17th for a team that eventually won the title? jordan poole breaking out and playing all season with a TS% as good as steph, GPII with a 68 TS%, klay coming back, otto porter and wiggins at 37% and 39% on 3's?, feels like a lot of offensive talent for 17th).
2023: 11th (team has slightly positive TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for 42% of team's VORP. down years for poole and klay so more understandable the offense isn't elite, but still that's a lot of shooting and gravity from those 2 combined with steph. not top 5 makes sense, but 11th? though i suspect they will sneak into the top 10 before the end of the season).
5 top 3 offenses and not a single other top 10?
oscar: 6 #1 offenses and 2 #2 offenses in a 9 year span in cincinnati (9 out of 10 top 10 in cincy) plus 2 more #1's and a #2 and a top 5 in milwaukee (13 out of 14 top 10 in career, even scaling up to a 30 team league for some of the lower finishes)
magic: 7 #1 offenses and 2 #2 offenses in a 12 year span (12 out of 12 top 10)
jordan (edit: accidentally lumped '98 in with the 5 seasons from 91-97 and counted it all as 5, should be another top 10): 4 #1 offenses and a #2 and 2 more top 10 (7 for 11, would almost certainly be 10 for 14 if he played in '86, '94, and '95) despite having almost no offensive help except woolridge for first 5 years (several years with 0 or 1 teammates with a positive BPM, 0 or 1 teammates with a positive TS Add, jordan accounts for 80+% of the team's VORP). note that i didn't count #9 in '88 since there were only 23 teams.
nash: 6 #1 offenses and 3 #2 offenses and 5 more top 10's (14 out of 14 in big minute seasons)
lebron: no #1 or #2 offenses but 8 top 5 offenses and 3 more top 10's despite having very little offensive help for 5 years in cleveland (same general teammate stats as jordan with tons of negative BPM guys and lebron accounting for 80%+ of the VORP (even 100% one season), though gooden/big Z were way over 15 PER, and about 0.150 WS48, but not much in BPM)
jokic: 1 #2 offense and 6 more top 7 offenses (7 out of 7 after age 20 rookie season, even holding up in injury-plagued seasons).
steph: 3 #1 offenses and 1 #2 offense and 1 more top 10 offense (5 out of 12 if not including 2012 and 2020, but 5 out of 14 when including 2012 and 2020, which don't appear to have much chance of being top 10 even if steph plays, see below)
2010: 14th (rookie steph, team has positive TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for only about 1/3 of team VORP)
2011: 12th (team has slight negative TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for only about 1/3 of team VORP)
2012: 14th (steph only plays in 26 games, but team rank doesn't really move much, team has slightly positive TS Add outside of steph, doesn't seem like a top 10 finish was in the offing even if steph plays)
2013: 11th (david lee + carl landry + rookie klay doesn't seem like the worst offensive support for an already 24 year old steph, team has almost exactly 0 TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for slightly less than half of team VORP)
2014: 12th (david lee + improved 2nd year klay and 25 year old steph, team has slightly negative TS Add outside of steph, tons of +0.100 WS48 and positive BPM guys. lots of VORP is from defensive guys draymond/iggy/bogut but all are good passers, steph accounts for only 45% of team VORP).
these don't seem like nearly as dire of circumstances as some of lebron and jordan's non top-10 teams. no disastrous TS Add's from the rest of the team, steph's not accounting for all of the team's VORP like he's the only decent player on the team, a decent number of solid box score guys with upper teens PER's and ~0.150 WS48's.
then we obviously get the kerr upgrade to the system and things take off for #2, #1, #1, #3, and #1 finishes. with 3 of those seasons featuring some kevin durant guy. but since then?
2020: 30th (even if we only include steph's 5 games, they would still have a ranking of 30th, so it seems pretty certain this is a bottom 5 offense even if steph plays)
2021: 20th (team only has modestly negative TS Add outside of steph, draymond is around to run the offense, JTA and damion lee combined for about a 66 TS%, wiggins isn't the worst, steph only accounts for 59% of the team's VORP)
2022: 17th (fairly solid positive TS Add outside of steph, steph barely accounts for 25% of the team's VORP. obviously injuries keep the big 3 from playing together, but 17th for a team that eventually won the title? jordan poole breaking out and playing all season with a TS% as good as steph, GPII with a 68 TS%, klay coming back, otto porter and wiggins at 37% and 39% on 3's?, feels like a lot of offensive talent for 17th).
2023: 11th (team has slightly positive TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for 42% of team's VORP. down years for poole and klay so more understandable the offense isn't elite, but still that's a lot of shooting and gravity from those 2 combined with steph. not top 5 makes sense, but 11th? though i suspect they will sneak into the top 10 before the end of the season).
5 top 3 offenses and not a single other top 10?
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
can you do a list like this for harden
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
f4p wrote:steph curry is one of the greatest offensive players ever. everybody agrees with the statement. and yet for most guys on that list, we have tons of high-ranking offenses to point to.
oscar: 6 #1 offenses and 2 #2 offenses in a 9 year span in cincinnati (9 out of 10 top 10 in cincy) plus 2 more #1's and a #2 and a top 5 in milwaukee (13 out of 14 top 10 in career, even scaling up to a 30 team league for some of the lower finishes)
magic: 7 #1 offenses and 2 #2 offenses in a 12 year span (12 out of 12 top 10)
jordan: 4 #1 offenses and a #2 and 1 more top 10 (6 for 11, would almost certainly be 9 for 14 if he played in '86, '94, and '95) despite having almost no offensive help except woolridge for first 5 years (several years with 0 or 1 teammates with a positive BPM, 0 or 1 teammates with a positive TS Add, jordan accounts for 80+% of the team's VORP)
nash: 6 #1 offenses and 3 #2 offenses and 5 more top 10's (14 out of 14 in big minute seasons)
lebron: no #1 or #2 offenses but 8 top 5 offenses and 3 more top 10's despite having very little offensive help for 5 years in cleveland (same general teammate stats as jordan with tons of negative BPM guys and lebron accounting for 80%+ of the VORP (even 100% one season), though gooden/big Z were way over 15 PER, and about 0.150 WS48, but not much in BPM)
jokic: 1 #2 offense and 6 more top 7 offenses (7 out of 7 after age 20 rookie season, even holding up in injury-plagued seasons).
steph: 3 #1 offenses and 1 #2 offense and 1 more top 10 offense (5 out of 12 if not including 2012 and 2020, but 5 out of 14 when including 2012 and 2020, which don't appear to have much chance of being top 10 even if steph plays, see below)
2010: 14th (rookie steph, team has positive TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for only about 1/3 of team VORP)
2011: 12th (team has slight negative TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for only about 1/3 of team VORP)
2012: 14th (steph only plays in 26 games, but team rank doesn't really move much, team has slightly positive TS Add outside of steph, doesn't seem like a top 10 finish was in the offing even if steph plays)
2013: 11th (david lee + carl landry + rookie klay doesn't seem like the worst offensive support for an already 24 year old steph, team has almost exactly 0 TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for slightly less than half of team VORP)
2014: 12th (david lee + improved 2nd year klay and 25 year old steph, team has slightly negative TS Add outside of steph, tons of +0.100 WS48 and positive BPM guys. lots of VORP is from defensive guys draymond/iggy/bogut but all are good passers, steph accounts for only 45% of team VORP).
these don't seem like nearly as dire of circumstances as some of lebron and jordan's non top-10 teams. no disastrous TS Add's from the rest of the team, steph's not accounting for all of the team's VORP like he's the only decent player on the team, a decent number of solid box score guys with upper teens PER's and ~0.150 WS48's.
then we obviously get the kerr upgrade to the system and things take off for #2, #1, #1, #3, and #1 finishes. with 3 of those seasons featuring some kevin durant guy. but since then?
2020: 30th (even if we only include steph's 5 games, they would still have a ranking of 30th, so it seems pretty certain this is a bottom 5 offense even if steph plays)
2021: 20th (team only has modestly negative TS Add outside of steph, draymond is around to run the offense, JTA and damion lee combined for about a 66 TS%, wiggins isn't the worst, steph only accounts for 59% of the team's VORP)
2022: 17th (fairly solid positive TS Add outside of steph, steph barely accounts for 25% of the team's VORP. obviously injuries keep the big 3 from playing together, but 17th for a team that eventually won the title? jordan poole breaking out and playing all season with a TS% as good as steph, GPII with a 68 TS%, klay coming back, otto porter and wiggins at 37% and 39% on 3's?, feels like a lot of offensive talent for 17th).
2023: 11th (team has slightly positive TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for 42% of team's VORP. down years for poole and klay so more understandable the offense isn't elite, but still that's a lot of shooting and gravity from those 2 combined with steph. not top 5 makes sense, but 11th? though i suspect they will sneak into the top 10 before the end of the season).
5 top 3 offenses and not a single other top 10?
Notes
1) This is a super-crude measure of individuals. So much noise versus what the player inputs.
2) As alluded to league size matters. I am a huge Oscar fan, and would guess I have him higher than most, but league size really messes up this measure even more.
3) Not sure how winning a title ends up being a ding.
As to why (beyond flaws in the analysis and/or context to those flaws)
1) Curry wasn't great out of the gate. And probably less otherworldly lately too.
2) Injuries to Curry.
3) Injuries to teammates.
4) Teammates. Cf: for instance/especially '14. Well all his teammates have these win shares and shot okay ... Well they have win shares because it was a good team, driven by Steph. They shot okay ... when Curry was on the court (team .539 efg%, 111.9 Ortg with him on; .459, 95.8 with him off [On Ortg and efg% would be second; off each would be clearly last, Ortg dramatically so]).
Some sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2014/on-off/ ; https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/787/onoff#tab-team_efficiency)
I don't see the logic of using obviously worse tools when better ones are clearly and widely available and clear what they mean - get not being at the bleeding edge where it gets complex and what the best tool is isn't clear to the layman but ... there are times where it's just clear that he's driving them to being really good with him on and they're awful with him off.
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
Because Curry is one of the offensive GOAT so you can surround him with some offensive liabilities. Or people needs to use Warriors defense to give Curry's due credit.
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
f4p wrote:
lebron: no #1 or #2 offenses but 8 top 5 offenses and 3 more top 10's despite having very little offensive help for 5 years in cleveland (same general teammate stats as jordan with tons of negative BPM guys and lebron accounting for 80%+ of the VORP (even 100% one season), though gooden/big Z were way over 15 PER, and about 0.150 WS48, but not much in BPM)
The 2013 Heat had the #1 offense.
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
I'll get into this just a little bit.
When I use statistical team results to evaluate players, what I tend to do is use a perspective where it takes a lot of stuff in the same direction before I draw any discrepant conclusions.
So, I'll point to Nash leading top offenses to hammer home the fact that what he was doing was driving a system that worked really well, but I won't point to a guy not leading top offenses to say definitively that he was failing to do something. Rather, I'm more likely to say that there's more doubt in my assessment of that player's scalability to greater team ceiling in that role.
I can point to similar things with raw forms of +/- as well as stuff like RAPM.
In the end, I like doing rankings because they force me to make a choice, but even if I end up arguing with passion on the subject, there's always doubt still present.
To your specific question, it makes me want to look at his On-Court ORtg numbers because I don't have that in my head. (On the other hand, I know his On/Off's will look great.)
If we begin from '12-13 (where Curry enters his prime over the course of the year), here's Curry's On-Court ORtg compared to the #10 team offense:
'12-13: 108.5, Top 10 was 106.4
'13-14: 111.9, Top 10 was 108.8
'14-15: 116.6, Top 10 was 107.8
'15-16: 119.0, Top 10 was 106.8
'16-17: 121.1, Top 10 was 110.8
'17-18: 122.7, Top 10 was 109.6
'18-19: 120.8, Top 10 was 112.2
'20-21: 115.2, Top 10 was 114.0
'21-22: 115.8, Top 10 was 113.7
'22-23: 119.1, Top 10 is 116.1
So, every season Curry played serious minutes in his prime, his team has played like a Top 10 offense when he's been out there, and so whenever they don't finish Top 10 overall, it's because of the minutes he doesn't play.
Now, I haven't done this sort of analysis before so I'm not going to make any comparative statement about how impressive Curry has been based on having a higher ORtg than the Nth best offense each year. I'd encourage those interested to do more analyses along these lines, but I have a feeling that actually doing Top 5 or Top 1 type comparisons might be more insightful. I may do it myself too.
None of that would be more valuable, imho, than the sort of stats we already have with +/- and RAPM, as we know full well that the Warriors have looked to stack the team defensively to balance out Curry, but it would at least be interesting.
When I use statistical team results to evaluate players, what I tend to do is use a perspective where it takes a lot of stuff in the same direction before I draw any discrepant conclusions.
So, I'll point to Nash leading top offenses to hammer home the fact that what he was doing was driving a system that worked really well, but I won't point to a guy not leading top offenses to say definitively that he was failing to do something. Rather, I'm more likely to say that there's more doubt in my assessment of that player's scalability to greater team ceiling in that role.
I can point to similar things with raw forms of +/- as well as stuff like RAPM.
In the end, I like doing rankings because they force me to make a choice, but even if I end up arguing with passion on the subject, there's always doubt still present.
To your specific question, it makes me want to look at his On-Court ORtg numbers because I don't have that in my head. (On the other hand, I know his On/Off's will look great.)
If we begin from '12-13 (where Curry enters his prime over the course of the year), here's Curry's On-Court ORtg compared to the #10 team offense:
'12-13: 108.5, Top 10 was 106.4
'13-14: 111.9, Top 10 was 108.8
'14-15: 116.6, Top 10 was 107.8
'15-16: 119.0, Top 10 was 106.8
'16-17: 121.1, Top 10 was 110.8
'17-18: 122.7, Top 10 was 109.6
'18-19: 120.8, Top 10 was 112.2
'20-21: 115.2, Top 10 was 114.0
'21-22: 115.8, Top 10 was 113.7
'22-23: 119.1, Top 10 is 116.1
So, every season Curry played serious minutes in his prime, his team has played like a Top 10 offense when he's been out there, and so whenever they don't finish Top 10 overall, it's because of the minutes he doesn't play.
Now, I haven't done this sort of analysis before so I'm not going to make any comparative statement about how impressive Curry has been based on having a higher ORtg than the Nth best offense each year. I'd encourage those interested to do more analyses along these lines, but I have a feeling that actually doing Top 5 or Top 1 type comparisons might be more insightful. I may do it myself too.
None of that would be more valuable, imho, than the sort of stats we already have with +/- and RAPM, as we know full well that the Warriors have looked to stack the team defensively to balance out Curry, but it would at least be interesting.
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
To say 'so few' seems rather out of place. I mean they are barely outside the top 10 in 13/14 then top 3 every year from 15-19. Hard to fault Steph much in 21 given it was probably a top 3 rs for him. In 22 there could be room for criticism but Steph misses 18 games and has a 2 month long slump. Then they win the title so its sort of like what does it matter what they ranked in ORtg. In short, I think prime Steph more than proved himself as an offensive engine. Probably top 5-8 all time in that regard relative to era.
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
Yeah, a good discussion could be had about Golden States offense post Durant. What's missing and why they're no where near elite. But that would lead to some major contradictions from Team Gravity.
SinceGatlingWasARookie wrote:I don’t think LeBron was as good a point guard as Mo Williams for the point guard play not counting the scoring threat. In other words in a non shooting Rondo like role Mo Williams would be better than LeBron.
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
One of the keys to Steph/Warrior greatness last season for the '22 chip is Steph being able to carry the offense and raise up offensively limited players like Draymond, Looney, Iggy (as he aged and spacing became more important), GPII, etc. The 2022 team was more of a defensive team enabled by Curry being able to be the carry on offense.
But I also I'm a bit confused why we're saying "so few" when their Offensive Rating from 2014-15 to 2018-19 was #2, #1, #1, #3, #1. That's not easy to do, LeBron never did it.
If you're wondering about pre-Kerr, Mark Jackson is partly to thank along with Steph being younger and injured one year. But mostly it was Mark Jackson being an X's an O's dinosaur and would put the ball in Jarret Jack or Monta's hands and want them to iso frequently. It was bad team basketball. Steph's ability shone once the motion offense was installed with Kerr, but he also ramped up in skill between age 21 and 24. I'd say it was the 2012-13 season where Steph was capable of doing a lot more than the team did, but Jackson really limited the team.
After KD left Steph was out for the year and the following season Klay was still hurt and Poole hadn't grown yet. Wiseman really clogged the offense up in 20-21, look up Offensive Ratings with him off the court, they were much better. 2022 the strategy was for Steph to raise the offense on a defensive minded team (#2 in defense).
But I also I'm a bit confused why we're saying "so few" when their Offensive Rating from 2014-15 to 2018-19 was #2, #1, #1, #3, #1. That's not easy to do, LeBron never did it.
If you're wondering about pre-Kerr, Mark Jackson is partly to thank along with Steph being younger and injured one year. But mostly it was Mark Jackson being an X's an O's dinosaur and would put the ball in Jarret Jack or Monta's hands and want them to iso frequently. It was bad team basketball. Steph's ability shone once the motion offense was installed with Kerr, but he also ramped up in skill between age 21 and 24. I'd say it was the 2012-13 season where Steph was capable of doing a lot more than the team did, but Jackson really limited the team.
After KD left Steph was out for the year and the following season Klay was still hurt and Poole hadn't grown yet. Wiseman really clogged the offense up in 20-21, look up Offensive Ratings with him off the court, they were much better. 2022 the strategy was for Steph to raise the offense on a defensive minded team (#2 in defense).
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
DonaldSanders wrote:If you're wondering about pre-Kerr, Mark Jackson is partly to thank along with Steph being younger and injured one year. But mostly it was Mark Jackson being an X's an O's dinosaur and would put the ball in Jarret Jack or Monta's hands and want them to iso frequently. It was bad team basketball. Steph's ability shone once the motion offense was installed with Kerr, but he also ramped up in skill between age 21 and 24. I'd say it was the 2012-13 season where Steph was capable of doing a lot more than the team did, but Jackson really limited the team.
The reason Curry didn't lead top 10 offenses under Jackson was also because of how the team performed without him on the court. Also, the Warriors were 11th and 12th in ORTG those years, which makes the cut-off used in the OP very convenient to push a point but not exactly meaningful.
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
I think the playoff results up until last year was quite disappointing for an offensive GOAT candidate, not going to lie. I think people were trying to excuse away the fact that he simply wasn't anchoring ATG offenses in the playoffs without Kevin Durant the way Nash and LeBron were able to do to on a consistent basis, or even the way other great offensive players that aren't even in the offensive GOAT conversation were able to do (like Shaq, Kobe, and Dirk).
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
Owly wrote:f4p wrote:steph curry is one of the greatest offensive players ever. everybody agrees with the statement. and yet for most guys on that list, we have tons of high-ranking offenses to point to.
oscar: 6 #1 offenses and 2 #2 offenses in a 9 year span in cincinnati (9 out of 10 top 10 in cincy) plus 2 more #1's and a #2 and a top 5 in milwaukee (13 out of 14 top 10 in career, even scaling up to a 30 team league for some of the lower finishes)
magic: 7 #1 offenses and 2 #2 offenses in a 12 year span (12 out of 12 top 10)
jordan: 4 #1 offenses and a #2 and 1 more top 10 (6 for 11, would almost certainly be 9 for 14 if he played in '86, '94, and '95) despite having almost no offensive help except woolridge for first 5 years (several years with 0 or 1 teammates with a positive BPM, 0 or 1 teammates with a positive TS Add, jordan accounts for 80+% of the team's VORP)
nash: 6 #1 offenses and 3 #2 offenses and 5 more top 10's (14 out of 14 in big minute seasons)
lebron: no #1 or #2 offenses but 8 top 5 offenses and 3 more top 10's despite having very little offensive help for 5 years in cleveland (same general teammate stats as jordan with tons of negative BPM guys and lebron accounting for 80%+ of the VORP (even 100% one season), though gooden/big Z were way over 15 PER, and about 0.150 WS48, but not much in BPM)
jokic: 1 #2 offense and 6 more top 7 offenses (7 out of 7 after age 20 rookie season, even holding up in injury-plagued seasons).
steph: 3 #1 offenses and 1 #2 offense and 1 more top 10 offense (5 out of 12 if not including 2012 and 2020, but 5 out of 14 when including 2012 and 2020, which don't appear to have much chance of being top 10 even if steph plays, see below)
2010: 14th (rookie steph, team has positive TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for only about 1/3 of team VORP)
2011: 12th (team has slight negative TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for only about 1/3 of team VORP)
2012: 14th (steph only plays in 26 games, but team rank doesn't really move much, team has slightly positive TS Add outside of steph, doesn't seem like a top 10 finish was in the offing even if steph plays)
2013: 11th (david lee + carl landry + rookie klay doesn't seem like the worst offensive support for an already 24 year old steph, team has almost exactly 0 TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for slightly less than half of team VORP)
2014: 12th (david lee + improved 2nd year klay and 25 year old steph, team has slightly negative TS Add outside of steph, tons of +0.100 WS48 and positive BPM guys. lots of VORP is from defensive guys draymond/iggy/bogut but all are good passers, steph accounts for only 45% of team VORP).
these don't seem like nearly as dire of circumstances as some of lebron and jordan's non top-10 teams. no disastrous TS Add's from the rest of the team, steph's not accounting for all of the team's VORP like he's the only decent player on the team, a decent number of solid box score guys with upper teens PER's and ~0.150 WS48's.
then we obviously get the kerr upgrade to the system and things take off for #2, #1, #1, #3, and #1 finishes. with 3 of those seasons featuring some kevin durant guy. but since then?
2020: 30th (even if we only include steph's 5 games, they would still have a ranking of 30th, so it seems pretty certain this is a bottom 5 offense even if steph plays)
2021: 20th (team only has modestly negative TS Add outside of steph, draymond is around to run the offense, JTA and damion lee combined for about a 66 TS%, wiggins isn't the worst, steph only accounts for 59% of the team's VORP)
2022: 17th (fairly solid positive TS Add outside of steph, steph barely accounts for 25% of the team's VORP. obviously injuries keep the big 3 from playing together, but 17th for a team that eventually won the title? jordan poole breaking out and playing all season with a TS% as good as steph, GPII with a 68 TS%, klay coming back, otto porter and wiggins at 37% and 39% on 3's?, feels like a lot of offensive talent for 17th).
2023: 11th (team has slightly positive TS Add outside of steph, steph accounts for 42% of team's VORP. down years for poole and klay so more understandable the offense isn't elite, but still that's a lot of shooting and gravity from those 2 combined with steph. not top 5 makes sense, but 11th? though i suspect they will sneak into the top 10 before the end of the season).
5 top 3 offenses and not a single other top 10?
Notes
1) This is a super-crude measure of individuals. So much noise versus what the player inputs.
yes, but other players have faired very well. steph seems to be an outlier.
2) As alluded to league size matters. I am a huge Oscar fan, and would guess I have him higher than most, but league size really messes up this measure even more.
not really. almost all of oscar's are #1 or #2 offenses, which would all be better than 10th out of 30, even in a 9 team league. by the time he has a few slightly lower offenses, there are more teams.
3) Not sure how winning a title ends up being a ding.
just meant it wasn't some undertalented squad.
4) Teammates. Cf: for instance/especially '14. Well all his teammates have these win shares and shot okay ... Well they have win shares because it was a good team, driven by Steph. They shot okay ... when Curry was on the court (team .539 efg%, 111.9 Ortg with him on; .459, 95.8 with him off [On Ortg and efg% would be second; off each would be clearly last, Ortg dramatically so]).
Some sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2014/on-off/ ; https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/787/onoff#tab-team_efficiency)
many teams are better when their best player is on the court.
I don't see the logic of using obviously worse tools when better ones are clearly and widely available and clear what they mean - get not being at the bleeding edge where it gets complex and what the best tool is isn't clear to the layman but ... there are times where it's just clear that he's driving them to being really good with him on and they're awful with him off.
but overall team offense is the goal. the warriors offensive talent over the years doesn't really scream "should be awful without steph" so what are the warriors/steph doing overall that doesn't result in elite offenses as often as other offensive greats?
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
The-Power wrote:Also, the Warriors were 11th and 12th in ORTG those years, which makes the cut-off used in the OP very convenient to push a point but not exactly meaningful.
a. well yes, that's how these things go. i wasn't going to start a thread called "how did steph curry manage to lead so many top 17 offenses".
b. the cutoff is largely irrelevant just looking at steph. it could be top 8, top 5, or top 3, and it would still be the same number for steph.
c. looking at others, it's not like these guys were bulking up on #9 and #10 offenses. you have decade long top 2 runs from 3 of the guys and decade long top 5-ish run from most of the others. it's a gap however you want to frame it.
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
Doctor MJ wrote:I'll get into this just a little bit.
When I use statistical team results to evaluate players, what I tend to do is use a perspective where it takes a lot of stuff in the same direction before I draw any discrepant conclusions.
So, I'll point to Nash leading top offenses to hammer home the fact that what he was doing was driving a system that worked really well, but I won't point to a guy not leading top offenses to say definitively that he was failing to do something. Rather, I'm more likely to say that there's more doubt in my assessment of that player's scalability to greater team ceiling in that role.
I can point to similar things with raw forms of +/- as well as stuff like RAPM.
In the end, I like doing rankings because they force me to make a choice, but even if I end up arguing with passion on the subject, there's always doubt still present.
To your specific question, it makes me want to look at his On-Court ORtg numbers because I don't have that in my head. (On the other hand, I know his On/Off's will look great.)
If we begin from '12-13 (where Curry enters his prime over the course of the year), here's Curry's On-Court ORtg compared to the #10 team offense:
'12-13: 108.5, Top 10 was 106.4
'13-14: 111.9, Top 10 was 108.8
'14-15: 116.6, Top 10 was 107.8
'15-16: 119.0, Top 10 was 106.8
'16-17: 121.1, Top 10 was 110.8
'17-18: 122.7, Top 10 was 109.6
'18-19: 120.8, Top 10 was 112.2
'20-21: 115.2, Top 10 was 114.0
'21-22: 115.8, Top 10 was 113.7
'22-23: 119.1, Top 10 is 116.1
So, every season Curry played serious minutes in his prime, his team has played like a Top 10 offense when he's been out there, and so whenever they don't finish Top 10 overall, it's because of the minutes he doesn't play.
Now, I haven't done this sort of analysis before so I'm not going to make any comparative statement about how impressive Curry has been based on having a higher ORtg than the Nth best offense each year. I'd encourage those interested to do more analyses along these lines, but I have a feeling that actually doing Top 5 or Top 1 type comparisons might be more insightful. I may do it myself too.
None of that would be more valuable, imho, than the sort of stats we already have with +/- and RAPM, as we know full well that the Warriors have looked to stack the team defensively to balance out Curry, but it would at least be interesting.
You would have to compare steph currys on court off rtg to on court off rtg of the offensively impactifl players of other top ten teams
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
therealbig3 wrote:I think the playoff results up until last year was quite disappointing for an offensive GOAT candidate, not going to lie. I think people were trying to excuse away the fact that he simply wasn't anchoring ATG offenses in the playoffs without Kevin Durant the way Nash and LeBron were able to do to on a consistent basis, or even the way other great offensive players that aren't even in the offensive GOAT conversation were able to do (like Shaq, Kobe, and Dirk).
It's because he's not really that special as a passer and creator on the ball relative to some of these guys he gets compared to. He's just so much better off the ball, but for that to be functioning at its highest level, the rest of the team has to be hitting shots, making good passes, getting penetration as well, etc.
At the same time, I think the Warriors have done the right thing in building a defense first team and trusting Steph's gravity and shooting ability to make life easier, or easy enough to play offense at a level that can win series, and multiple titles if the defense stays high level. Most organizations would have went all in on getting shooters, stretch bigs, playmakers, and all these other offensive first players to make the life easier for Steph and make prettier offensive numbers, and it would have backfired. The Warriors thrive offensively when their defense is firing on all cylinders, and Steph's efficiency shines even more when they are getting stops. Some credit needs to be given to Steph for always being part of great defenses too, both through strong effort, communication, and helping keep efficiency high enough that teams aren't out and running all night vs the warriors.
Likewise though, for all the team building and stacking of offensive talents LeBron has done, his teams have fallen short offensively too IMO in an all time sense. That's because for his teams to function at their peak, everyone has to be able to shoot, and guys can't operate in the paint or too close to the rim without throwing the offense out of rhythm, and you have to concede to not having much of a role as a main playmaker. The ceiling ends up pretty capped on teams, even at times with two mega offensive talents, and a 3rd all star offensive talent.
There is some balance that has to be struck between the two IMO. If only there was a guy who could do both of those things well.

Doctor MJ wrote:I don't understand why people jump in a thread and say basically, "This thing you're all talking about. I'm too ignorant to know anything about it. Lollerskates!"
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
NO-KG-AI wrote:therealbig3 wrote:I think the playoff results up until last year was quite disappointing for an offensive GOAT candidate, not going to lie. I think people were trying to excuse away the fact that he simply wasn't anchoring ATG offenses in the playoffs without Kevin Durant the way Nash and LeBron were able to do to on a consistent basis, or even the way other great offensive players that aren't even in the offensive GOAT conversation were able to do (like Shaq, Kobe, and Dirk).
It's because he's not really that special as a passer and creator on the ball relative to some of these guys he gets compared to. He's just so much better off the ball, but for that to be functioning at its highest level, the rest of the team has to be hitting shots, making good passes, getting penetration as well, etc.
At the same time, I think the Warriors have done the right thing in building a defense first team and trusting Steph's gravity and shooting ability to make life easier, or easy enough to play offense at a level that can win series, and multiple titles if the defense stays high level. Most organizations would have went all in on getting shooters, stretch bigs, playmakers, and all these other offensive first players to make the life easier for Steph and make prettier offensive numbers, and it would have backfired. The Warriors thrive offensively when their defense is firing on all cylinders, and Steph's efficiency shines even more when they are getting stops. Some credit needs to be given to Steph for always being part of great defenses too, both through strong effort, communication, and helping keep efficiency high enough that teams aren't out and running all night vs the warriors.
Likewise though, for all the team building and stacking of offensive talents LeBron has done, his teams have fallen short offensively too IMO in an all time sense. That's because for his teams to function at their peak, everyone has to be able to shoot, and guys can't operate in the paint or too close to the rim without throwing the offense out of rhythm, and you have to concede to not having much of a role as a main playmaker. The ceiling ends up pretty capped on teams, even at times with two mega offensive talents, and a 3rd all star offensive talent.
There is some balance that has to be struck between the two IMO. If only there was a guy who could do both of those things well.
LeBron has consistently anchored some of the best playoff offenses of all time though...
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
NO-KG-AI wrote:therealbig3 wrote:I think the playoff results up until last year was quite disappointing for an offensive GOAT candidate, not going to lie. I think people were trying to excuse away the fact that he simply wasn't anchoring ATG offenses in the playoffs without Kevin Durant the way Nash and LeBron were able to do to on a consistent basis, or even the way other great offensive players that aren't even in the offensive GOAT conversation were able to do (like Shaq, Kobe, and Dirk).
It's because he's not really that special as a passer and creator on the ball relative to some of these guys he gets compared to. He's just so much better off the ball, but for that to be functioning at its highest level, the rest of the team has to be hitting shots, making good passes, getting penetration as well, etc.
At the same time, I think the Warriors have done the right thing in building a defense first team and trusting Steph's gravity and shooting ability to make life easier, or easy enough to play offense at a level that can win series, and multiple titles if the defense stays high level. Most organizations would have went all in on getting shooters, stretch bigs, playmakers, and all these other offensive first players to make the life easier for Steph and make prettier offensive numbers, and it would have backfired. The Warriors thrive offensively when their defense is firing on all cylinders, and Steph's efficiency shines even more when they are getting stops. Some credit needs to be given to Steph for always being part of great defenses too, both through strong effort, communication, and helping keep efficiency high enough that teams aren't out and running all night vs the warriors.
Likewise though, for all the team building and stacking of offensive talents LeBron has done, his teams have fallen short offensively too IMO in an all time sense. That's because for his teams to function at their peak, everyone has to be able to shoot, and guys can't operate in the paint or too close to the rim without throwing the offense out of rhythm, and you have to concede to not having much of a role as a main playmaker. The ceiling ends up pretty capped on teams, even at times with two mega offensive talents, and a 3rd all star offensive talent.
There is some balance that has to be struck between the two IMO. If only there was a guy who could do both of those things well. 8-)
Do you have someone in mind?
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
therealbig3 wrote:NO-KG-AI wrote:therealbig3 wrote:I think the playoff results up until last year was quite disappointing for an offensive GOAT candidate, not going to lie. I think people were trying to excuse away the fact that he simply wasn't anchoring ATG offenses in the playoffs without Kevin Durant the way Nash and LeBron were able to do to on a consistent basis, or even the way other great offensive players that aren't even in the offensive GOAT conversation were able to do (like Shaq, Kobe, and Dirk).
It's because he's not really that special as a passer and creator on the ball relative to some of these guys he gets compared to. He's just so much better off the ball, but for that to be functioning at its highest level, the rest of the team has to be hitting shots, making good passes, getting penetration as well, etc.
At the same time, I think the Warriors have done the right thing in building a defense first team and trusting Steph's gravity and shooting ability to make life easier, or easy enough to play offense at a level that can win series, and multiple titles if the defense stays high level. Most organizations would have went all in on getting shooters, stretch bigs, playmakers, and all these other offensive first players to make the life easier for Steph and make prettier offensive numbers, and it would have backfired. The Warriors thrive offensively when their defense is firing on all cylinders, and Steph's efficiency shines even more when they are getting stops. Some credit needs to be given to Steph for always being part of great defenses too, both through strong effort, communication, and helping keep efficiency high enough that teams aren't out and running all night vs the warriors.
Likewise though, for all the team building and stacking of offensive talents LeBron has done, his teams have fallen short offensively too IMO in an all time sense. That's because for his teams to function at their peak, everyone has to be able to shoot, and guys can't operate in the paint or too close to the rim without throwing the offense out of rhythm, and you have to concede to not having much of a role as a main playmaker. The ceiling ends up pretty capped on teams, even at times with two mega offensive talents, and a 3rd all star offensive talent.
There is some balance that has to be struck between the two IMO. If only there was a guy who could do both of those things well.
LeBron has consistently anchored some of the best playoff offenses of all time though...
That's very true he has some great playoff offenses, but I think it has come at the expense of defense at times too. I do think having amazing regular season offenses and much bigger sample sizes of that nature matter as well though.
I think LeBron is a better offensive player than Steph though, so it's kind of nitpicking to make a bigger point, not a statement that LeBron is equivalent or worse than Steph.
Edit: I'll just say I think with Wade/Bosh and Irving/Love and even with a fit and talent like Davis, LeBron's teams should have been an all time great offense a lot more often than they were, and not just for 10-20 game stretches where people were hitting 3's at an absurd rate. Lesser talents have gotten more from less with consistent results.
Doctor MJ wrote:I don't understand why people jump in a thread and say basically, "This thing you're all talking about. I'm too ignorant to know anything about it. Lollerskates!"
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
Curry/Harden/Luka on/off ortg net
10 SC +3.1 JH +0.2
11 SC +5.1 JH +1.9
12 SC +5.4 JH +14.0
13 SC +8.1 JH +0.6
14 SC +16.1 JH +7.7
15 SC +14.4 JH +13.7
16 SC +13.6 JH +7.9
17 SC +16.3 JH +6.6
18 SC +14.7 JH +7.4
19 SC +10.8 JH +7.4 Luka +0.0
20 SC +5.6 JH +5.1 Luka +3.7
21 SC +10.3 JH +4.3/+3.4 Luka +7.8
22 SC +5.8 JH +0.1/+10.0 Luka +4.4
23 SC +6.3 JH +6.0 Luka +6.3
Curry/Nash/Harden on/off ortg net
+16.3 +17.4 +14.0
+16.1 +15.4 +13.7
+14.7 +13.0 +10.0 (PHI 2022)
+14.4 +12.0 +7.9
+13.6 +8.1 +7.7
+10.8 +8.0 +7.4
+10.3 +7.7 +7.4
+8.1 +7.4 +6.6
+6.3 +7.1 +6.0
+5.8 +6.5 +5.1
+5.6 +6.4 +4.3 (HOU 2021)
+5.4 +3.7 +3.4 (BKN 2021)
+5.1 +2.6 +1.9
+3.1 +0.5 +0.6
Next Nash -0.3 -0.6 -4.1 -5.1
10 SC +3.1 JH +0.2
11 SC +5.1 JH +1.9
12 SC +5.4 JH +14.0
13 SC +8.1 JH +0.6
14 SC +16.1 JH +7.7
15 SC +14.4 JH +13.7
16 SC +13.6 JH +7.9
17 SC +16.3 JH +6.6
18 SC +14.7 JH +7.4
19 SC +10.8 JH +7.4 Luka +0.0
20 SC +5.6 JH +5.1 Luka +3.7
21 SC +10.3 JH +4.3/+3.4 Luka +7.8
22 SC +5.8 JH +0.1/+10.0 Luka +4.4
23 SC +6.3 JH +6.0 Luka +6.3
Curry/Nash/Harden on/off ortg net
+16.3 +17.4 +14.0
+16.1 +15.4 +13.7
+14.7 +13.0 +10.0 (PHI 2022)
+14.4 +12.0 +7.9
+13.6 +8.1 +7.7
+10.8 +8.0 +7.4
+10.3 +7.7 +7.4
+8.1 +7.4 +6.6
+6.3 +7.1 +6.0
+5.8 +6.5 +5.1
+5.6 +6.4 +4.3 (HOU 2021)
+5.4 +3.7 +3.4 (BKN 2021)
+5.1 +2.6 +1.9
+3.1 +0.5 +0.6
Next Nash -0.3 -0.6 -4.1 -5.1
Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
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Re: Why has Steph Curry played on so few Top 10 offenses?
NO-KG-AI wrote:therealbig3 wrote:NO-KG-AI wrote:
It's because he's not really that special as a passer and creator on the ball relative to some of these guys he gets compared to. He's just so much better off the ball, but for that to be functioning at its highest level, the rest of the team has to be hitting shots, making good passes, getting penetration as well, etc.
At the same time, I think the Warriors have done the right thing in building a defense first team and trusting Steph's gravity and shooting ability to make life easier, or easy enough to play offense at a level that can win series, and multiple titles if the defense stays high level. Most organizations would have went all in on getting shooters, stretch bigs, playmakers, and all these other offensive first players to make the life easier for Steph and make prettier offensive numbers, and it would have backfired. The Warriors thrive offensively when their defense is firing on all cylinders, and Steph's efficiency shines even more when they are getting stops. Some credit needs to be given to Steph for always being part of great defenses too, both through strong effort, communication, and helping keep efficiency high enough that teams aren't out and running all night vs the warriors.
Likewise though, for all the team building and stacking of offensive talents LeBron has done, his teams have fallen short offensively too IMO in an all time sense. That's because for his teams to function at their peak, everyone has to be able to shoot, and guys can't operate in the paint or too close to the rim without throwing the offense out of rhythm, and you have to concede to not having much of a role as a main playmaker. The ceiling ends up pretty capped on teams, even at times with two mega offensive talents, and a 3rd all star offensive talent.
There is some balance that has to be struck between the two IMO. If only there was a guy who could do both of those things well.
LeBron has consistently anchored some of the best playoff offenses of all time though...
That's very true he has some great playoff offenses, but I think it has come at the expense of defense at times too. I do think having amazing regular season offenses and much bigger sample sizes of that nature matter as well though.
I think LeBron is a better offensive player than Steph though, so it's kind of nitpicking to make a bigger point, not a statement that LeBron is equivalent or worse than Steph.
Edit: I'll just say I think with Wade/Bosh and Irving/Love and even with a fit and talent like Davis, LeBron's teams should have been an all time great offense a lot more often than they were, and not just for 10-20 game stretches where people were hitting 3's at an absurd rate. Lesser talents have gotten more from less with consistent results.
The years they had great offenses in the playoffs iirc the defenses were far better than in the RS too.