2023 Draft Discussion Part III

[OakleyDokely]

Jrue Holiday just put up 51 points.

He's got a long way to go to become Jrue. That's probably best case scenario.

Absolutely…14 NBA seasons to go!

But their physical profile is eerily similar and Wallace has a slight statistical edge on their one year of college, but even their stats are eerily similar too.

thing is, a lot of sturdy guards who have elite defensive potential but who aren't efficient offensive players are compared to Jrue.

Jrue is a pretty unique player.

Maybe Wallace gets there, but it's a high bar to reach.

[WuTang_CMB]

Key factor in who they take will be which of the top 6 isn't here next season. If they retain all 6, this pick won't play much.

IMO:
Thad, Boucher gone
1 of FVV / Trent gone

Either way, we gotta draft someone to help the next wave and who can contribute to a rotation in year 2

[ArthurVandelay]

He's got a long way to go to become Jrue. That's probably best case scenario.

Absolutely…14 NBA seasons to go!

But their physical profile is eerily similar and Wallace has a slight statistical edge on their one year of college, but even their stats are eerily similar too.

thing is, a lot of sturdy guards who have elite defensive potential but who aren't efficient offensive players are compared to Jrue.

Jrue is a pretty unique player.

Maybe Wallace gets there, but it's a high bar to reach.

For sure, couldn’t agree more. But their physical profile and college stats are nearly identical. It’s a comparison that is tough to not make.

[WuTang_CMB]

Let's not forget Jrue absolutely elevated his game since joining the Bucks. Sure the attension Giannis gets helped, but he's a highly talented, saavy vet

[OakleyDokely]

Let's not forget Jrue absolutely elevated his game since joining the Bucks. Sure the attension Giannis gets helped, but he's a highly talented, saavy vet

and it wasn't until he got to the bucks that he became a league average or slightly above league average scorer from an efficiency standpoint

in NO's he struggled with being an offensive focal point as he was highly inefficient.

the NBA is dominated by monsters now, a lot of teams are playing very big lineups, so if you're under 6'6 and you aren't a great outside shooter, it's tough to score in the paint.

[WuTang_CMB]

Let's not forget Jrue absolutely elevated his game since joining the Bucks. Sure the attension Giannis gets helped, but he's a highly talented, saavy vet

and it wasn't until he got to the bucks that he became a league average or slightly above league average scorer from an efficiency standpoint

in NO's he struggled with being an offensive focal point as he was highly inefficient.

the NBA is dominated by monsters now, a lot of teams are playing very big lineups, so if you're under 6'6 and you aren't a great outside shooter, it's tough to score in the paint.

His TS% jumped 6 points basically since joining the Bucks. That's one of those guys that just got better and better. Perfect fit next to Giannis

[Dalek]

And the opposing logic would likely draft Tyreke Evans over Steph Curry because he was a big PG who looked like he could defend at the next level. Or maybe Rubio who was an awesome two-way player in Spain.

You were complaining about an analytical approach. Now you're talking about size and two way play. I'm certain Curry was the best statistical prospect out of the three, and fwiw, Rubio was known in the NBA as a super-hyped phenom since he was 15 and was highly marketable and fun to watch. These aren't the examples you want to use.

Kawhi was a diamond in the rough but he was developed in the best place possible with the best shooting coach in the league. He was a good college player, but the Spurs developed him into a "superstar." He got to play with three hall-of-fame players to start his career. Not a bad group to learn from.

Still boring. You think Kemba on the Spurs is Kawhi? Nah.

Scoot has scary raw materials: speed, power and PG vision, and he is a natural leader/star that makes him special. Back in Lamelo's draft year people were talking themselves out of him because of his defense and his character, but as soon as stepped on an NBA court he was a walking triple double. I see the same for Scoot assuming he can stay healty.

I'm not talking about Scoot or individuals. The better prospect is the one you should draft, not the one that sells the most shirts. If there are some numbers that eliminate the noise and hype, they should be valued! Drafting isn't a perfect science. We can agree on that. You're thoughts here are too far gone, though. I'll take the Ws every time.

Take whatever Ws you think you need. Part of the package of drafting any prospect is being able to sell said prospect to your fanbase and do commercials and social media, and if the player is high lottery you need the kid to be marketable along with having talent. I mention this for teams like Toronto who kind of lack any appeal outside their own limited market (ie limited national TV exposure, lack of basketball shoe deals with major players, low jersey sales, low ticket sales outside Toronto).

A guy like Rubio was a phenom (in Europe) but no one was buying him in the US. His lack of takeover ability offensively led him to a solid back-up role type of career - not a star career. Steph was a skinny kid with iffy defense playing on a mid-major, but everyone in the US saw the star power on full display during the Davidson run. That run and spotlight propelled him to the high lottery. It was numbers but also him shining on the biggest stage. Remember his draft was pre-Steph era, so people probably saw him as an undersized two or a combo weighing like 170 lbs. There would have been doubters until that run.

My general comment is about how people are saying outrageous things like Scoot's advanced analytics are worse compared to Sidy Cissoko almost implying Sidy is more valuable than Scoot. Scott is talented and has star power which make him an easy number two pick and likely would be a number on in most other draft years. He didn't have perfect G-League numbers, didn't shoot the ball well from three, but I have no doubt he will be a starter/all-NBA type in time because you can see the outsized personality and flashy game, takeover ability of a star.

[Rapsfan07]

The prospects who best fit my model are:

Scoot Henderson
Cason Wallace
Kobe Bufkin
Marcus Sasser

Guys who fall outside of it but could conceivably overcome it because they show enough multidimensional ability:

Brandin Podziemski
Colby Jones
Jordan Hawkins
Bilal Coulibaly (needs to be stashed for 3 years)

and to a lesser extent Anthony Black

Guys who are risks or lack multidimensionality and/or efficiency:

Nick Smith Jr.
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Jett Howard
Terquavion Smith
Sidy Cissoko

edit: I moved Hawkins to the 2nd tier because I think the potential for high offensive output is so good that he can be a plus player with just a modest improvement defensively and to other areas of his game, but that improvement needs to occur.

Can I ask why you are low on Cissoko? He seems far superior to Coulibaly and his advanced stats were better than Scoot's.

I'd like to look deeper into Cissoko's advanced stats. Where are you finding these?

[ATLTimekeeper]

Take whatever Ws you think you need. Part of the package of drafting any prospect is being able to sell said prospect to your fanbase and do commercials and social media, and if the player is high lottery you need the kid to be marketable along with having talent. I mention this for teams like Toronto who kind of lack any appeal outside their own limited market (ie limited national TV exposure, lack of basketball shoe deals with major players, low jersey sales, low ticket sales outside Toronto).

A guy like Rubio was a phenom (in Europe) but no one was buying him in the US. His lack of takeover ability offensively led him to a solid back-up role type of career - not a star career. Steph was a skinny kid with iffy defense playing on a mid-major, but everyone in the US saw the star power on full display during the Davidson run. That run and spotlight propelled him to the high lottery. It was numbers but also him shining on the biggest stage. Remember his draft was pre-Steph era, so people probably saw him as an undersized two or a combo weighing like 170 lbs. There would have been doubters until that run.

My general comment is about how people are saying outrageous things like Scoot's advanced analytics are worse compared to Sidy Cissoko almost implying Sidy is more valuable than Scoot. Scott is talented and has star power which make him an easy number two pick and likely would be a number on in most other draft years. He didn't have perfect G-League numbers, didn't shoot the ball well from three, but I have no doubt he will be a starter/all-NBA type in time because you can see the outsized personality and flashy game, takeover ability of a star.

No one in the US saw Steph. He played for a mid-major. No one really saw Rubio, either, but as a prized prospect he was definitely hyped for years. It was once considered a 'tank for Rubio' draft. He just landed in an awful market. Marketability really doesn't matter and shouldn't be in consideration for high lotto picks. That's where decisions are even more costly. Jalen Green over Evan Mobley, for example. Ball over Tatum. There's just too many examples, so I won't bother. Someone might buy that Cissoko will be a better player than Scoot based on those numbers. I could see it, but there's no real history of Gleague success in the league to really base any numbers off of. There's plenty of data in the NCAA that makes those calls a little easier. That's where an analytical approach makes sense. You shouldn't be quick to dismiss it.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Damn I just looked at Jordan Hawkins, he's also another player we could desperately use and he might've just jumped to #1 on my Raptor Big board. Will he be available in the 15-18 range? He's like a smoother more athletic GTJ, which is exactly something we can use.

I'm a lot more bullish on Hawkins offensive game than some other guards who people love. His FT rate and % and the leap he made this year reinforce that... the kid can SHOOT the 3 and looks ok so far when the defense overcommits and he puts the ball on the floor. At the end of the day though, the thing that's keeping him from me regarding him highly is his defense and modest contributions elsewhere. He had a 1.7 DBPM this year. I'm worried he just ends up being a 3 point specialist more than a well-rounded player you'd want in your starting lineup. Overall, he still has a lot of work to do and hasn't shown me enough. Uconn's system really enabled him to shine this year. I'm leaning more towards niche player.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

The prospects who best fit my model are:

Scoot Henderson
Cason Wallace
Kobe Bufkin
Marcus Sasser

Guys who fall outside of it but could conceivably overcome it because they show enough multidimensional ability:

Brandin Podziemski
Colby Jones
Jordan Hawkins
Bilal Coulibaly (needs to be stashed for 3 years)

and to a lesser extent Anthony Black

Guys who are risks or lack multidimensionality and/or efficiency:

Nick Smith Jr.
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Jett Howard
Terquavion Smith
Sidy Cissoko

edit: I moved Hawkins to the 2nd tier because I think the potential for high offensive output is so good that he can be a plus player with just a modest improvement defensively and to other areas of his game, but that improvement needs to occur.

The guys you have listed are all interesting and the first two ranks are players that I would consider as hybrids. They would be like Scottie Barnes, in that you could put them on a NBA floor and they would be productive in some capacity from day one. Their high floor does negate their high ceiling where they could reach a high level. The only questionable ones are Bufkin, who kind of had a late run, and is not super proven, and Sasser who is a bit older and you wonder if he slots more as a smaller combo guard.

The player in our range who stands out is Anthony Black. Despite the lack of three pointers made and shot creation, he just looks like the next Dyson Daniels. He is a floor general and the defense is elite, while he has a knack for drawing fouls at a high rate and and can finish given his size. He isn't a guy who stands around when he doesn't have the ball and can cut and make plays anywhere on the court. Maybe he amounts to a Ben Simmons, but with his competitiveness he can be better than Ben.

I like that he is a five-star recruit and outshone Nick Smith Jr. and Ricky Council for the year. Arkansas was a weird offensive team with zero spacing, but Black kind of surpassed expectations with his effort and motor. There is one clip where I see the pro potential is at the 1:06 he is tracking Jordan Hawkins and he blasts past two screens and closes so fast that Hawkins is forced to have give up the ball once he has this big defender in his grill. Toronto is going to love a guy like that and think they can develop his shot in time:

Read on Twitter

Black's ability as a perimeter defender is undeniable even at his size he was a unicorn freshman defender. The thing I like most about Black is the rhythm, flow/pace he plays the game. Makes a lot of high DoD passes but also screws up a lot as a passer and decision maker which is discouraging for a guy people are projecting as a jumbo PG. Obviously with Black it's really all about the shooting. It's bad. Very bad. I don't know how I'd be able to live with adding a guy who can't shoot to this team.

[DreamTeam09]

Damn I just looked at Jordan Hawkins, he's also another player we could desperately use and he might've just jumped to #1 on my Raptor Big board. Will he be available in the 15-18 range? He's like a smoother more athletic GTJ, which is exactly something we can use.

I'm a lot more bullish on Hawkins offensive game than some other guards who people love. His FT rate and % and the leap he made this year reinforce that... the kid can SHOOT the 3 and looks ok so far when the defense overcommits and he puts the ball on the floor. At the end of the day though, the thing that's keeping him from me regarding him highly is his defense and modest contributions elsewhere. He had a 1.7 DBPM this year. I'm worried he just ends up being a 3 point specialist more than a well-rounded player you'd want in your starting lineup. Overall, he still has a lot of work to do and hasn't shown me enough. Uconn's system really enabled him to shine this year. I'm leaning more towards niche player.

When drafting in the mid range you're probably looking for "niche" players, or at the very least the flaws of the players in that range are going to be very well noticeable. Shooting translate tho, so a niche shooter who isn't a defensive liability is definitely the start for a productive player. I don't know much about the advance stats but you said his FTR has increased which bodes well for him. With his athletic ability he's not your duncan robinson/Joe Harris type of 3pt specialist. Plus this team could use a floor spacer in the worst way

[Syd-TK3]

As we drop in the draft order and potentially make the play in my main options are no longer looking possible.

So 15-20 I like Maxwell Lewis,
I like Rupert and Whitehead but they are too much of a project to make sense drafting with this team

Max lewis got destroyed defensively second half of the year. His numbers took a beating too.

I can see the appeal though

His team is trash but his offensive skillset is too special for me to overlook I'm tired of all defense no offense guys

[dozo]

Read on Twitter

We haven't discussed undrafted signings that much. Here a list of prospects who might go undrafted that mgmt should consider signing or an invite to SL.

Mike Miles jr.
Ben Sheppard
Oso Ighodaro 
Jalen Pickett
Isaiah Wong
Jordan Miller

[Dalek]

Take whatever Ws you think you need. Part of the package of drafting any prospect is being able to sell said prospect to your fanbase and do commercials and social media, and if the player is high lottery you need the kid to be marketable along with having talent. I mention this for teams like Toronto who kind of lack any appeal outside their own limited market (ie limited national TV exposure, lack of basketball shoe deals with major players, low jersey sales, low ticket sales outside Toronto).

A guy like Rubio was a phenom (in Europe) but no one was buying him in the US. His lack of takeover ability offensively led him to a solid back-up role type of career - not a star career. Steph was a skinny kid with iffy defense playing on a mid-major, but everyone in the US saw the star power on full display during the Davidson run. That run and spotlight propelled him to the high lottery. It was numbers but also him shining on the biggest stage. Remember his draft was pre-Steph era, so people probably saw him as an undersized two or a combo weighing like 170 lbs. There would have been doubters until that run.

My general comment is about how people are saying outrageous things like Scoot's advanced analytics are worse compared to Sidy Cissoko almost implying Sidy is more valuable than Scoot. Scott is talented and has star power which make him an easy number two pick and likely would be a number on in most other draft years. He didn't have perfect G-League numbers, didn't shoot the ball well from three, but I have no doubt he will be a starter/all-NBA type in time because you can see the outsized personality and flashy game, takeover ability of a star.

No one in the US saw Steph. He played for a mid-major. No one really saw Rubio, either, but as a prized prospect he was definitely hyped for years. It was once considered a 'tank for Rubio' draft. He just landed in an awful market. Marketability really doesn't matter and shouldn't be in consideration for high lotto picks. That's where decisions are even more costly. Jalen Green over Evan Mobley, for example. Ball over Tatum. There's just too many examples, so I won't bother. Someone might buy that Cissoko will be a better player than Scoot based on those numbers. I could see it, but there's no real history of Gleague success in the league to really base any numbers off of. There's plenty of data in the NCAA that makes those calls a little easier. That's where an analytical approach makes sense. You shouldn't be quick to dismiss it.

Wait, no one in the US saw the Davidson run March Madness run? The biggest showcase on national TV that had Davidson go to the Elite 8. Not sure how you can say no one saw Steph??

Sure Rubio landed in a small market, but he kinds of proves that defense alone is not going to win anything. He had a couple big youth scoring records, but he was a floor general and defensive prospect who probably should not have been drafted so high.

Shai plays in a small market and you can see the MVP type of attention/national exposure he generates. Anthony Edwards is in the same market as Rubio and despite everything he is a 25 point scorer who made a movie on Netflix. Talent and personality win out.

Green over Mobley and Ball over Tatum are just bad decisions. Not much to say about those. The point is that analytics will never tell the whole story and there is a human element to what makes a superstar. He have to have that belief which is important.

[Psubs]

I think the Raps are just going to take the best talent available regardless of current need.

Whomever they take likely won't contribute in a positive way next year anyways, so you might as well just take the best talent even it if it overlaps with the current roster.

So you think Dereck Lively is an option? I think he would definitely have a chance of being BPA when we pick, put I wouldn't even touch him unless someone wants to give us a late 1st for Koloko.

Ya it's like what are the Pistons going to do with Duren when they hit on a buy low for James Wiseman? Stewart is showing that he can hit the 3 so maybe he can play PF? Maybe trade Duren to Charlotte, Portland?

[grant101]

Dammit! Was one of my buy low candidates I was hoping the Raps could pick up as a UDFA or with a late 2nd rd pick

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Jaylen Clark and D'moi Hodge are two others. Clark is declaring, don't think Hodge has announced

[Psubs]

Read on Twitter

We haven't discussed undrafted signings that much. Here a list of prospects who might go undrafted that mgmt should consider signing or an invite to SL.

Mike Miles jr.
Ben Sheppard
Oso Ighodaro 
Jalen Pickett
Isaiah Wong
Jordan Miller

I've mentioned Wong and Miller pre-tourney. I think at 6'7 Miller might be the better choice. Also him going for 29 points on perfect shooting helped. He's 23 but ready to play.

Jalen Pickett should be taken in 2nd.

[Kevin Willis]

A young Rubio would be great for this squad. 6'4" with a 6'9" wingspan. Facilitator and great defensive guard. The closest thing to that type is Cason Wallace but I would prefer Rubio's vision. Another good fit would be one of the Balls. Lonzo or LaMelo. Tall, creative passers, pesky defenders with a long wingspan. The closest in this draft might be Sidy.

We have more options if we want to go lanky shooter/ scorer that can defend.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

The prospects who best fit my model are:

Scoot Henderson
Cason Wallace
Kobe Bufkin
Marcus Sasser

Guys who fall outside of it but could conceivably overcome it because they show enough multidimensional ability:

Brandin Podziemski
Colby Jones
Jordan Hawkins
Bilal Coulibaly (needs to be stashed for 3 years)

and to a lesser extent Anthony Black

Guys who are risks or lack multidimensionality and/or efficiency:

Nick Smith Jr.
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Jett Howard
Terquavion Smith
Sidy Cissoko

edit: I moved Hawkins to the 2nd tier because I think the potential for high offensive output is so good that he can be a plus player with just a modest improvement defensively and to other areas of his game, but that improvement needs to occur.

Can I ask why you are low on Cissoko? He seems far superior to Coulibaly and his advanced stats were better than Scoot's.

Because he's a glue guy ceiling type of player and there are still question marks about him getting there. I'd feel a lot more comfortable taking him 25-35 whereas many people have him as being worthy of a top 15 selection. We know what it's like already to have guys who struggle after putting the ball on the floor and we shouldn't be looking to replace those guys with other guys who aren't good off the bounce, we can't have a team full of such players. I think Cissoko looks like he's committed enough to improving his 3pt/ft% with reps and he has nice enough form that I think he can shoot 37% from downtown in the NBA eventually. His rebounding is really discouraging for a guy his size and he still has a ways to go as a defender. I don't know how impressive the defensive stats are when you couple that with highly aggressive play and 4.2/36 foul rate which you won't be able to get away with in the NBA. He will need to play under more control.

I think he's worthy of a late 1st early 2nd as a project player based on what he's flashing as an 18 year old against G league competition. I don't even know if I should have included him here because he might be a SF in the NBA who learns to play more on the baseline and in the corners.