Post-Mortem: 2022-23 Washington Wizards

[ElectricMayhem]

The Wizards can still tie for a spot, but they cannot tie break.

Here is the data from previous years' Post-Mortems:
2020-21:

Spoiler:

Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

2021-22:
2021-22 Post Mortem Final Summary

Team Name: Washington Wizards
Record at Time of Death: 34-44 (.436)
Head of Front Office: Thomas Sheppard (2019-)
Coach: Wes Unseld Jr. (2021-)

Offensive Rating: 18th
Defensive Rating: 20th
Rebound %: 9th
Turnover %: 18th

Front Office: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Bradley Beal ($47m)
Daniel Gafford ($12m)
Monte Morris ($10m)
Delon Wright ($8m)
Deni Avidija ($6m)
Johnny Davis ($5m)
Corey Kispert ($4m)
Anthony Gill ($2m)
Isaiah Todd ($2m)
Xavier Cooks ($2m)
Jordan Goodwin ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)

Team Options:

Player Options:
Kristaps Porzingis ($36m)
Kyle Kuzma ($13m)

Free Agents:
Kendrick Nunn
Taj Gibson
Quenton Jackson
Jay Huff

Dead Money:


Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Houston Rockets
29. San Antonio Spurs
28. Detroit Pistons
27. Charlotte Hornets
26. Portland Trail Blazers
25. Indiana Pacers
24. Washington Wizards

[ElectricMayhem]

Every year, the Wizards seem to come away with the most uninspiring draft pick available at the spot. Plenty of talent on the draft boards and they end up with Johnny Davis and Corey Kispert - guys who I looked at in college and just felt their games wouldn't translate to the pro level. They even picked up my beloved Cassius Winston in the 2nd round. As talented as he is, he's not an NBA player. I'm not sure what Sheppard has done to merit keeping his position but if I recall, Washington is always overly loyal to their front office.

As far as roster construction, they really need to draft well to build a team around Beal and Porzingis. I expect Porzingis is opting in because that's a lot of money. They are only 19-23 in games when both Beal and Porzingis play. They definitely need help, but can they afford it? Are they going to throw even more money at Kuzma? If so, how do they expect to have a different result next year? They need to find a way to remove themselves from this rut. They seem to be in the same liminal space with their star as Portland is.

[FeatheryTouch]

Directionless, treadmill franchise that badly needs a hard reset.

They are a bad team with no rising blue chip young talent and minimal upside.

Fire Sheppard yesterday and bring in a GM with a vision that knows how to draft competently and isn't afraid to break some eggs. Everyone should be considered on the block, starting with Beal.

[jasonxxx102]

A team with no direction that can’t decide if they’re good or bad which has resulted in half a decade of late lottery picks and absolutely nothing to show for it.

Giving Beal all that money made no sense, probably gonna sign KP but why? Let Kuzma walk. Deni looks like a pretty decent role player but past that, there’s no hope

[Sofia]

It feels like the Wizards have gone 34-48 for 15 years straight.

Edit - yep, they’re a 0.419 team over last 15 years, which is 34 games in an 82 season.

[hauntedcomputer]

When you will pay Beal, Kuzma and Zing over $120 mil and this is your ceiling.

I'd rather GM the Generals.

[nate33]

It feels like the Wizards have gone 34-48 for 15 years straight.

Edit - yep, they’re a 0.419 team over last 15 years, which is 34 games in an 82 season.

It's worse than that. The Wizards haven't actually been relevant for over 40 years. Their last 50-win season was in 1979.

The issue isn't Tommy Sheppard. He's not really great, but he's not awful either. He has been modestly sub-par in drafting, and quite good in trades. The issue is Ted Leonsis. He is a cheapskate liar who refuses to do the smart thing and tank to build an asset base. Instead, he tries to sell the fan base that this year will be the year they "make a run" around their "superstar" Bradley Beal. Beal is a fine player, but he is no superstar.

Among the few bright spots are Porzingis and Kispert.

Porzingis has posted borderline All-Star numbers all year. He ranks in the 20-25 range in all the advanced metrics (EPM, BPM, RAPTOR, PER, WS/48, etc) and he has stayed healthy. He is still reasonably young (27) so if he can be resigned on a team friendly deal, he looks like a keeper (or a good trade asset down the road).

Kispert has posted insane shooting numbers (.663 TS%) on low volume (13.7 USG%) but over the past 6 games (after Beal went out) he has really shown a whole lot more game that we have seen so far. His had massively boosted his USG (20 USG% over the last 6) without any loss in efficiency (.693 TS%) including a lot of points off the bounce and driving to the rim, rather than just catch-and-shoots. If he can maintain a usage rate around 20 or so, he might pan out to be more of a Buddy Hield/Kevin Huerter/Bojan Bogdanovic tier player rather than just a floor spreader. That's a guy a team can use.

Beyond those 2 guys, the future of the team is pretty lousy. Gafford is solid as a 25 mpg rim-running big. Avdija has talent and can play D, but lacks consistency and a 3-ball. Davis is a bust. Jordan Goodwin is a backup caliber PG who can play some D.

Any halfway competent owner would sign off on a rebuild. Move Beal for whatever they can get. Kuzma should have been moved at the Trade Deadline. Delon Wright and Monte Morris are solid vets on good contracts and should have some trade value. But all signs point to the Wizards just running it back with the "Medium Three" again next year. 35 wins, here we come!

[JXL]

The supermax for Bradley Beal is the worst contract the Wizards gave. This team is the forever treadmill, and that contract confirms it.

[jokeboy86]

It feels like the Wizards have gone 34-48 for 15 years straight.

Edit - yep, they’re a 0.419 team over last 15 years, which is 34 games in an 82 season.

It's worse than that. The Wizards haven't actually been relevant for over 40 years.

Really not even during the brief Arenas/Butler/Jamison years or the healthy Wall/Beal years? I defer to you cause you're a fan but at least they had some years were they got out of the 1st round. Unless you mean locally they don't register on any level which I understand cause I listen to Tony Kornheiser regularly and he thinks the only relevant franchises in DC that have been close to relevant are the Nats and Caps.

[nate33]

It feels like the Wizards have gone 34-48 for 15 years straight.

Edit - yep, they’re a 0.419 team over last 15 years, which is 34 games in an 82 season.

It's worse than that. The Wizards haven't actually been relevant for over 40 years.

Really not even during the brief Arenas/Butler/Jamison years or the healthy Wall/Beal years? I defer to you cause you're a fan but at least they had some years were they got out of the 1st round. Unless you mean locally they don't register on any level which I understand cause I listen to Tony Kornheiser regularly and he thinks the only relevant franchises in DC that have been close to relevant are the Nats and Caps.

I guess it depends on your definition of relevant. Nobody thought the Wall/Beal Wizards had even a remote shot at a championship. They were merely a briefly decent franchise, about as good as the Knicks are at the moment. Are the Knicks relevant? Or are they merely the inevitable fodder for the real East contenders: Milwaukee, Boston and Philly.

[Godymas]

i watched more Wizards than most people do on average this year.

I have no clue what Bradley Beal is doing on this team still. He has no place on the team. I would argue that the team is better off without him playing most of the time. He never plays good enough to do anything major. He's a turnover machine in the clutch, he's a below average play maker at best. He isn't a true leader of the team.

Porzingis was solid all year, one of the more underrated players this year. Hilariously this version of Porzingis would be great for Dallas today.

Trading Rui was the right move, he just isn't that good and his role has been gradually reduced in LA too.

Kuzma took too many shots all year, can someone teach this guy how to pass the ball, he isn't meant to be taking this many shots. He has had a few clutch moments, it doesn't matter, he still tries too much iso, tries and sinks long range 3s, basically a chucker.

I see no value in keeping Brad Beal or Kuzma around and pray the FO decides to let these guys go.

Kispert has been averaging 23.2 PPG in the last 5 games he's played. It seems like he finally got a green light and honestly there is something there with Kispert.

Deni Avdija is the most polarizing guy on the team. On the one hand he's proven to be an elite defender, good BBIQ and fundamentals, on the other hand his offense is so piss poor some nights, so streaky. He had a career game against Boston which is basically what peak Deni is but then has a complete dud in the next game.

The guys worth building around are clearly Porzingis, Kispert and Deni. I like Delon Wright a ton too, smart signing. Gafford is love hate, he's ok but horrible at getting boards some nights.

I pray we find a deal to get rid of Beal, maybe the Jaylen Brown situation comes to a close and we get him for Beal, that would be the dream scenario.

I have a hard time blaming the coach because it's obvious that Beal and Kuzma would rather play hero ball than follow his schemes.

I hav a hard time blaming Tommy Shepherd because I would bet good money Ted Leonisis told Tommy to lock Beal up for that deal.

The entire FO is hard to correctly judge because of how bad the owner is.

It is so frustrating that this team went all in on Brad Beal. The Wall and Beal era was a thing, it was a very good thing, it was as beloved as the Arenas/Butler/Jamison era. It's over, it should've ended after trading WB, Beal should've been shipped off too. You don't keep both guys around that are part of a tandem like that. As soon as WB was out the door in Houston, Harden was too. As soon as Kyrie was traded in Brooklyn, KD was traded not long after.

Brad Beal is kind of like Dame Lillard today, stuck on a lottery team with too much money. Except Dame Lillard just had his best season yet and is at least 2x the player Brad Beal is.

[queridiculo]

I hav a hard time blaming Tommy Shepherd because I would bet good money Ted Leonisis told Tommy to lock Beal up for that deal.

The entire FO is hard to correctly judge because of how bad the owner is.

Eh, that taken on Sheppard is mostly a cop out.

Both things can be true, Leonsis without a doubt being one of the worst owners in the league and Sheppard being a below average GM.

In a league where it's largely identifying young talent that sets teams aparts, just being a good deal maker isn't enough.

The Hachimura pick was meh, passing on Haliburton for Deni a head scratcher and then there's the Johnny Davis disaster.

Sheppard has been with the organization for 20 years, and he should have been show the door when Grunfeld was phased out.

[Godymas]

I hav a hard time blaming Tommy Shepherd because I would bet good money Ted Leonisis told Tommy to lock Beal up for that deal.

The entire FO is hard to correctly judge because of how bad the owner is.

Eh, that taken on Sheppard is mostly a cop out.

Both things can be true, Leonsis without a doubt being one of the worst owners in the league and Sheppard being a below average GM.

In a league where it's largely identifying young talent that sets teams aparts, just being a good deal maker isn't enough.

The Hachimura pick was meh, passing on Haliburton for Deni a head scratcher and then there's the Johnny Davis disaster.

Hachimura was a miss, but considering the positional need and available players it makes sense considering the draft. Herro and Washington didn't make sense. Missing on Cam Johnson hurts but it's hard to tell if he gets this good playing DC compared to what he accomplished in PHX. Otherwise the rest of the draft was really hit or miss.

Deni is fine, I don't hate the pick at all. He's still got tons of potential. He was in the Israeli league winning the MVP and championships as a teenager playing against grown men. The pick makes sense and there are tons of plusses to Deni's game. Haliburton hurts but the WB deal was likely in the works and so the FO opted not the draft a guard like Haliburton because of WB.

Johnny Davis actually has shown a pulse as of late, he's playable again. He was a bust to start the season but has become a net positive in recent games and shows potential as a rotation piece moving forward. Obviously having Jalen Williams would be better, but it's too soon to judge these young guys harshly, they all belong in the NBA.

The other plus of Tommy is that when it comes to move a guy, he can get a deal done, it's a respectable thing and in recent years I'd say Tommy has won more trades than lost.

[NyKnicks1714]

Move them to Washington

[Ballerhogger]

As soon beal was signed the writing was on the wall I guess they needed ticket getter. Not seeing how they can improve , until beal is moved

[DS17]

they could have gotten 3 first round picks for beal...

im sure they can still get 1-2 for him. and another 1 for Kuz.... they should blow it all up