2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[eminence]

How do you assess Eason so far?

Well, I can't say as I've watched much Houston this season, so not too much to say.

His indicators look solid and it remains to be seen if it can scale up, but I think the Rockets should feel pretty good about him going forward.

Looking at the 14 rookies with 1300+ minutes (arbitrary cut-off, but a bit of a gap in minutes from 14th to 15th). Two main axis I'm looking at - 'goodness' and role size.

Legit a good player (in the fringe top 50 player for the season range) in a decent sized role:
Kessler - He's been the 2nd best Jazz player and has only looked better as the role scaled up. He's my pretty easy ROY winner.

Decent players in decent sized roles:
Jalen Williams/Keegan Murray - Murray more steady, Williams higher highs recently. Williams generally asked to do a bit more on a notably worse team. I don't lean heavily one way or the other here, but they're contenders to be on my ballot. Murray at least will have a chance at playoff glory.

Poor player in a big role:
Banchero - The other contender for my ballot and the one on the traditional path to stardom, Ivey the only other rookie asked to do as much as him. And Banchero has been decent at it for a rookie, not all-time inspiring or anything, but decent.

Poor players in a decent sized role:
Mathurin/Sochan/Nembhard - They're all doing quite a bit (not as much as Banchero) and are not particularly good at it. Mathurin is a contender for a hypothetical #5 for me, but well off my top 4 (Walker/Williams/Murray/Banchero).

Decent players in smaller roles:
Duren/Griffin/Eason - Mostly promise for the future for this crop, we'll see what they can do in bigger roles going forward I'm sure. I could see some folks switching Duren up a tier in role size or moving Sochan/Nembhard down.

Well below replacement guys, regardless of role:
Sharpe/Ivey/Smith Jr/Branham - Sharpes had a decent run of games, but was horrendous to start the season and is a big reason why Dame is sitting out with them out of the playoff picture. Ivey has way too big of role with what he's ready for and the Pistons are terrible. Smith isn't even asked to do all that much and has been rough at it. I'm sure Detroit/Houston are hoping for a breakout next season. Branham - I have no idea, I'm not sure I've watched a minute with him on court.

[MyUniBroDavis]

All-NBA
1st - Lillard, Mitchell, Tatum, Giannis, Embiid
2nd - Doncic, SGA, Butler, LeBron, Jokic
3rd - Ja, Curry, Durant, Davis, Sabonis

Fox HAS to be there lol

Fox ranks 14th out of all guards in OBPM
Fox ranks 12th out of all guards in TS+
His On-Court +/- of +2.0 is extremely mediocre for a player on a 50-win team [ranks 70th in the NBA in Total +/- at +137]

If we’re arguing that fox’s defense is enough to knock him overall sure, although given the kings identity that seems like a strange point esp if we’re putting lillard and Ja on there given lillard a results and Ja missing games so far (of course this would apply to other players)

But I feel at times there’s this idea that Sabonis is actually the driving force of their offense much more than fox is, which I can understand but it isn’t really all that substantiated when Fox has a higher offensive rating in Every single respectable advanced impact metric offensively (EPM/RAPM/LARAPM/LEBRON), although only in LARAPM is his offense next level good (2nd), the fact that the kings offense isn’t uber reliant on them the same way some other offenses are would

[Colbinii]

Fox HAS to be there lol

Fox ranks 14th out of all guards in OBPM
Fox ranks 12th out of all guards in TS+
His On-Court +/- of +2.0 is extremely mediocre for a player on a 50-win team [ranks 70th in the NBA in Total +/- at +137]

If we’re arguing that fox’s defense is enough to knock him overall sure, although given the kings identity that seems like a strange point esp if we’re putting lillard and Ja on there given lillard a results and Ja missing games so far (of course this would apply to other players)

Who is arguing about his defense? I only mentioned 2 offensive statistics and +/-

But I feel at times there’s this idea that Sabonis is actually the driving force of their offense much more than fox is, which I can understand but it isn’t really all that substantiated when Fox has a higher offensive rating in Every single respectable advanced impact metric offensively (EPM/RAPM/LARAPM/LEBRON), although only in LARAPM is his offense next level good (2nd), the fact that the kings offense isn’t uber reliant on them the same way some other offenses are would

For me, the guys I have a clear tier ahead of him in terms of on-court play are Lillard, Booker, Curry, SGA and Luka. When playing, Kyrie, Ja, Brunson, Harden, Haliburton and Holiday all are in the mix as well [I probably like half these players over Fox].

I just don't think Fox is an automatic shoe-in for All-NBA and see him as an outsider looking in--as are most Top 25-30 players in the league.

[AEnigma]

I do not have Fox all-NBA because I do not see him as a top six guard. Or top eight guard. Maybe not even top ten guard. If I swapped someone like Darius Garland or Jalen Brunson with him, I am skeptical the Kings are any worse (and by contrast, I am more confident both the Cavaliers and Knicks would be worse) — and neither of them are necessarily in my top eight either!

[MyUniBroDavis]

Hmm, yeah the guard position is pretty stacked actually lol

[OhayoKD]

Fox ranks 14th out of all guards in OBPM
Fox ranks 12th out of all guards in TS+
His On-Court +/- of +2.0 is extremely mediocre for a player on a 50-win team [ranks 70th in the NBA in Total +/- at +137]

If we’re arguing that fox’s defense is enough to knock him overall sure, although given the kings identity that seems like a strange point esp if we’re putting lillard and Ja on there given lillard a results and Ja missing games so far (of course this would apply to other players)

Who is arguing about his defense? I only mentioned 2 offensive statistics and +/-

But I feel at times there’s this idea that Sabonis is actually the driving force of their offense much more than fox is, which I can understand but it isn’t really all that substantiated when Fox has a higher offensive rating in Every single respectable advanced impact metric offensively (EPM/RAPM/LARAPM/LEBRON), although only in LARAPM is his offense next level good (2nd), the fact that the kings offense isn’t uber reliant on them the same way some other offenses are would

For me, the guys I have a clear tier ahead of him in terms of on-court play are Lillard, Booker, Curry, SGA and Luka. When playing, Kyrie, Ja, Brunson, Harden, Haliburton and Holiday all are in the mix as well [I probably like half these players over Fox].

I just don't think Fox is an automatic shoe-in for All-NBA and see him as an outsider looking in--as are most Top 25-30 players in the league.

What has kyrie done this season to justify being placed over anyone

[Colbinii]

If we’re arguing that fox’s defense is enough to knock him overall sure, although given the kings identity that seems like a strange point esp if we’re putting lillard and Ja on there given lillard a results and Ja missing games so far (of course this would apply to other players)

Who is arguing about his defense? I only mentioned 2 offensive statistics and +/-

But I feel at times there’s this idea that Sabonis is actually the driving force of their offense much more than fox is, which I can understand but it isn’t really all that substantiated when Fox has a higher offensive rating in Every single respectable advanced impact metric offensively (EPM/RAPM/LARAPM/LEBRON), although only in LARAPM is his offense next level good (2nd), the fact that the kings offense isn’t uber reliant on them the same way some other offenses are would

For me, the guys I have a clear tier ahead of him in terms of on-court play are Lillard, Booker, Curry, SGA and Luka. When playing, Kyrie, Ja, Brunson, Harden, Haliburton and Holiday all are in the mix as well [I probably like half these players over Fox].

I just don't think Fox is an automatic shoe-in for All-NBA and see him as an outsider looking in--as are most Top 25-30 players in the league.

What has kyrie done this season to justify being placed over anyone

He is a 27/5/5 on 61 TS% player. I wouldn't put him on my All-NBA team but specifically on-court play [which I specifically reference in my post], I have a hard time seeing Fox as a better player than Kyrie.

[AEnigma]

Did all-NBA (settling on Steph as the first-team guard; Lillard and Luka still a toss-up to me), so now will run through a few other end of the regular season awards.

All-Defensive teams:
First team for me is Jrue and Caruso, JJJ and… Draymond… and then Davis at centre. If someone wants to penalise Davis for time played, I understand that.
Second team is Derrick White and… well, Paul George if he counts as a shooting guard this year (I think he has a more valid claim than Anunoby or even Dillon Brooks), but otherwise, I guess I will go with Smart over all the other valid alternatives. At forward, Jaden McDaniels and Mobley, and then Brook at centre.
Hypothetical third team would be Josh Hart and uhhh KCP, Anunoby and Herb Jones, and then Nic Claxton (who probably is not better than Gobert, just as Brook is probably not the best or second-best defensive centre, but has offered more of a standout season, and that is what I want to reward).

Coach of the Year (Regular Season):
1. Mike Brown
2. Taylor Jenkins
3. Will Hardy

Executive of the Year (Regular Season):
1. Koby Altman
2. Daryl Morey
3. If I had an official NBA ballot I would make this a throwaway vote. For the RealGM ballot, as I said, playoff results are paramount.
Ainge lost me a bit with that Conley/Vanderbilt trade. Possible he could not get more than a single distanced first, but that seems low value compared to what we have seen elsewhere.
Pelinka had a nice deadline, but this award is a long-term one for me, and there were plenty of errors preceding the Russell/Vanderbilt trade.
McNair will be a popular choice, and if the goal was returning to relevance as quickly as possible, then sure, he did a great job, but I still think that team made a poor move for its longer-term contention capabilities.
The Nuggets are finally complete, but the only additions you can attribute specifically to their current executive are KCP and Bruce Brown.
And then Leon Rose. The cloud looming over Rose for me is the Barrett contract. If he uses that contract to trade for a strong asset, then he may well be at the top of my ballot next year. And for RealGM purposes, if Brunson channels his 2018 NCAA self and takes the Knicks deep into the playoffs, then maybe I can overlook the Barrett extension. Right now, though, he has built a 5-seed without a clear path to greater heights, and I would like to see more than just that.

[rk2023]

How my DIY Ballot looks like for All-NBA Guards:

Doncic Curry
Lillard Shai
Harden Mitchell

Some feedback (especially something which would have me re-thinking stance(s)) would be appreciated!

[Dutchball97]

How my DIY Ballot looks like for All-NBA Guards:

Doncic Curry
Lillard Shai
Harden Mitchell

Some feedback (especially something which would have me re-thinking stance(s)) would be appreciated!

Of course Curry isn't a strange first team pick but I'm not sure how one would be able to put him as high as that this season statistically. Curry is 3rd among guards in EPM behind Dame and Luka, while he has played less games and is thus noticeably further behind both of Dame and Luka in total value added. In that latter EPM category he also drops below SGA, Mitchell, Kyrie and Garland.

LEBRON is even harsher on him as he's behind Luka, Mitchell, SGA, Harden, Ja and Dame. The total wins added category has him 16th among guards, just behind Anthony Edwards.

RAPTOR paints a similar picture to EPM with Curry being clearly behind Dame and Luka on a per game basis and dropping further in WAR.

RAPM has Dame, Curry and Luka all around the same with Mitchell and especially Shai well ahead. Boxscore stats aren't too flattering either with only BPM having Curry as a top 2 guard by 0.1 and then dropping a couple spaces back again in VORP.

I don't know if I'm missing something but to me that looks like 2nd team behind Dame and Luka with more arguments to bring Curry down to 3rd team than to move him up to 1st team.

As a side note still a bit of a shame this will be the last year where All-NBA has any meaning.

[jazzfan1971]

Hard for me to see the gobert trade and not have Ainge #1 for eoy.

[Colbinii]

Hard for me to see the gobert trade and not have Ainge #1 for eoy.

Why? A ton of middle 1sts isn't a great return for Gobert.

[jazzfan1971]

Hard for me to see the gobert trade and not have Ainge #1 for eoy.

Why? A ton of middle 1sts isn't a great return for Gobert.

Walker Kessler plus a ton of middle firsts is tremendous return.

[GSP]

Do ppl still have Luka in Poy consideration for top 5? This Kyrie pairing has been an alltime disaster and really exposed his low portability and scalability. Prolly the worst ever for a perimeter player. When those 2 were on the court they just performed horrifcally poor cant remember a star pairing do that poorly when they both played.

[Doctor MJ]

Do ppl still have Luka in Poy consideration for top 5? This Kyrie pairing has been an alltime disaster and really exposed his low portability and scalability. Prolly the worst ever for a perimeter player. When those 2 were on the court they just performed horrifcally poor cant remember a star pairing do that poorly when they both played.

I don't expect to give Doncic serious consideration for my Top 5 no.

I'd stop short of saying it says anything definitive about his ceiling, but not a great year for team accomplishment for Luka obviously.

[Colbinii]

Hard for me to see the gobert trade and not have Ainge #1 for eoy.

Why? A ton of middle 1sts isn't a great return for Gobert.

Walker Kessler plus a ton of middle firsts is tremendous return.

But Walker Kessler was seen as a mid/late 1st at the time and the picks all project to be late lottery or later [which are players who likely won't be signing contracts after their rookie deals].

[Colbinii]

Do ppl still have Luka in Poy consideration for top 5? This Kyrie pairing has been an alltime disaster and really exposed his low portability and scalability. Prolly the worst ever for a perimeter player. When those 2 were on the court they just performed horrifcally poor cant remember a star pairing do that poorly when they both played.

Glad to see you found your next player to bitch about for the next 15 years once CP3 retires.

[GSP]

Do ppl still have Luka in Poy consideration for top 5? This Kyrie pairing has been an alltime disaster and really exposed his low portability and scalability. Prolly the worst ever for a perimeter player. When those 2 were on the court they just performed horrifcally poor cant remember a star pairing do that poorly when they both played.

Glad to see you found your next player to bitch about for the next 15 years once CP3 retires.

Luka actually does have alot of the same whining, flopping, baiting Cp3 does. Not as cheap but hes gotten insufferable to watch it might even be worse with Luka considering hes 6'8 240 at least. I was hoping Ben and Luka would be 2 guys I could latch onto after Lebron hangs em up.... but no theyre not it. At least the Jays are here to stay.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Why? A ton of middle 1sts isn't a great return for Gobert.

Walker Kessler plus a ton of middle firsts is tremendous return.

But Walker Kessler was seen as a mid/late 1st at the time and the picks all project to be late lottery or later [which are players who likely won't be signing contracts after their rookie deals].

I mean Gobert was seen as an elite player lol

[AEnigma]

There are very few historical situations since the establishment of the three-point line where I would list someone as a top five player for that season if they missed the playoffs. Off the top, the only two I can recall are maybe 1992 Hakeem (and there I think it is relevant his team went 2-10 without him to miss the playoffs by a single western conference game) and 2005 Garnett. Needless to say, Luka is not at either of their levels even before we look at how both the Rockets and Wolves had winning records and likely would have made the playoffs in the other conference.

Glancing at RealGM Player of the Year, we had 2015 Westbrook at #6, 2005-07 Garnett at #3/7/6 respectively, 1998 Grant Hill at #7, 1992 Hakeem at #7 (…), 1992 Barkley at #8, and 1988 Barkley at #5. Worth mentioning there is how Garnett and Barkley were both top eight in minutes played (and again, would have likely made the playoffs had they swapped conferences), whereas Luka is currently thirty-fifth (and would likely not be in the playoffs even if the Mavericks swapped conferences).

There is some unfairness here in that if the Mavericks had made a sincere effort to re-sign Brunson before he hit free agency or if the Mavericks had not traded their defensive depth for Kyrie, we likely do not have this discussion. On the other hand, Luka could also have played better, played more, and recognised that the team was better off maintaining their defence rather than making a move for another pure offensive player (this of course is a recurring problem with almost all star players, and it is ultimately the front office’s responsibility to make those determinations, but we can acknowledge that most franchises lack the free agency cachet to ignore their star players in this modern era of player movement).

As a regular season performer he has no case over those top three MVP contending bigs. I am sympathetic to the idea that he could be #4 on some people’s list right now, just on that idea of “who would you take to build around”, but all those other top guys who may lose out for time played (Lebron, Steph, Kawhi, Durant, Davis…) are going to have the opportunity to showcase themselves in the most meaningful games, and others like Butler, Tatum, Mitchell, Ja, etc. are going to have the opportunity to spearhead an “undeniable” playoff run of their own. Some star is going to make the conference finals in addition to those top three guys. At least two more stars are going to make the conference semifinals. I mean, I do not know, if Jaylen carries Tatum in the first round, and if Bane looks like the best player on Memphis during their conference finals run, and if all those other established stars disappoint, then okay, I guess I can see a path to get Luka back into the top five. Those are an awful lot of “if”s though, so for the time being, I would expect him to not make the cut.